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Terror attacks in the UAE

Terror attacks in the UAE

Old Jun 27th 2015, 7:17 am
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Default Terror attacks in the UAE

Doesn't it seem surprising there hasn't been one yet? The UAE, especially Dubai, is such a prime target with the large western expat presence and tourism and its laid back Islamic attitudes that must infuriate the fundamentalist Muslims in Isis.

What are the odds of such an attack happening? Would it change the equation for Dubai Plc? I had unpleasant visions of Barasti going kaboom. Although to be fair maybe that wouldn't be too bad (assuming no one gets seriously hurt).

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Old Jun 27th 2015, 7:49 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Odds are low, the risk exists of course but is much lower than most of the rest of the region for many reasons.

One of the biggest reasons is the largely unified view of the locals, most of the Shia were deported years ago. Unlike Saudi say there isnt a huge local split and existing tensions are relatively low and certainly much lower than elsewhere in the region.

There is a bigger pro democracy movement here than there is pro extremist movement, combine that with the small size of the country and extreme surveillance state and whilst the risk of lone attackers is still there its much much lower than in many places.

Whilst the UAE and in particular Dubai may seem a prime target the odds of a "home grown" attack are low and its surprisingly tough these days to for attackers to get stuff in. 10 years ago the border was imaginary lines in the sand, now its a fully monitored and fenced in country with border patrols and cameras everywhere.

I'd say that although on the surface we may appear the biggest target in the region we actually have a much lower risk than the rest of the region or any major european city due to many factors.

Another one of those reasons being that Dubai is also a "neutral" zone for many of the worlds less savoury organisations and spy outfits. When everybody is parking money here and has a safe place to eat and sleep between campaigns it makes little sense for them to shit in their own beds, add in the long time rumour of pay offs and most serious analysis has the UAE and Dubai fairly low on the risk index
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Old Jun 27th 2015, 8:51 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by shiva View Post
Odds are low, the risk exists of course but is much lower than most of the rest of the region for many reasons.

One of the biggest reasons is the largely unified view of the locals, most of the Shia were deported years ago. Unlike Saudi say there isnt a huge local split and existing tensions are relatively low and certainly much lower than elsewhere in the region.

There is a bigger pro democracy movement here than there is pro extremist movement, combine that with the small size of the country and extreme surveillance state and whilst the risk of lone attackers is still there its much much lower than in many places.

Whilst the UAE and in particular Dubai may seem a prime target the odds of a "home grown" attack are low and its surprisingly tough these days to for attackers to get stuff in. 10 years ago the border was imaginary lines in the sand, now its a fully monitored and fenced in country with border patrols and cameras everywhere.

I'd say that although on the surface we may appear the biggest target in the region we actually have a much lower risk than the rest of the region or any major european city due to many factors.

Another one of those reasons being that Dubai is also a "neutral" zone for many of the worlds less savoury organisations and spy outfits. When everybody is parking money here and has a safe place to eat and sleep between campaigns it makes little sense for them to shit in their own beds, add in the long time rumour of pay offs and most serious analysis has the UAE and Dubai fairly low on the risk index
Yep, very logical. So that accounts for about 10% of the equation...
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Old Jun 27th 2015, 8:54 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

As mentioned above there is probably some informal or unwritten rule amongst jihadis not to makes waves in the UAE. Who knows maybee the UAE authorities have a wink wink nod nod agreement between them and various groups.
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Old Jun 27th 2015, 11:01 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

So glad I turned that Kuwait job down. Not sure if it will be destabilised, as IS seem to want, but I'm glad.
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Old Jun 27th 2015, 4:02 pm
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

The risk here is no different than anywhere else.

There are plenty of unmanaged borders. I Crossed some only last week.

But a very good security presence will reduce the risk for sure. But who knows what a disgruntled group of labourers will get up to of given some money.
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Old Jun 27th 2015, 8:06 pm
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

There was an attack in Abu Dhabi - a woman got knifed to death
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Old Jun 28th 2015, 8:46 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by flares View Post
There was an attack in Abu Dhabi - a woman got knifed to death
and one in jumeriah reported not so long ago

Al Reem-type stabbing in Jumeirah - Khaleej Times
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Old Jun 28th 2015, 9:04 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

There will always be a certain percentage of people in every society who are complete nutters regardless of how 'happy' the average person is. Of course these people may be known by the security services, but unless they babysit every one of these risks all the time shit can (and will eventually) happen. There are plenty of examples from all over the world.

UAE is less dangerous than most large cities in the world for sure mainly due to lower crime, but I think believing that nothing will happen because people don't shit in their own bed is terribly naive.

One thing I am pretty certain of is that if something serious does happen here all bets are off! The country has everything they have built in the last 40 years to lose...
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Old Jun 28th 2015, 9:44 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by norsk View Post
There will always be a certain percentage of people in every society who are complete nutters regardless of how 'happy' the average person is. Of course these people may be known by the security services, but unless they babysit every one of these risks all the time shit can (and will eventually) happen. There are plenty of examples from all over the world.

UAE is less dangerous than most large cities in the world for sure mainly due to lower crime, but I think believing that nothing will happen because people don't shit in their own bed is terribly naive.

One thing I am pretty certain of is that if something serious does happen here all bets are off! The country has everything they have built in the last 40 years to lose...
wont and less likely not being the same thing
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Old Jun 28th 2015, 10:02 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by shiva View Post
wont and less likely not being the same thing
Absolutely, but very few of the expats I have met in this particular oasis seem capable of making that distinction. As long as they can continue to drive a better car than at home, earn more money and pretend not to know that their wife is being caned by the personal trainer they seem oblivious to the facts of life..

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Old Jun 28th 2015, 10:08 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by norsk View Post
Absolutely, but very few of the expats I have met in this particular oasis seem capable of making that distinction. As long as they can continue to drive a better car than at home, earn more money and pretend not to know that their wife is being caned by the personal trainer they seem oblivious to the facts of life..
very true
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Old Jun 28th 2015, 11:22 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by norsk View Post
Absolutely, but very few of the expats I have met in this particular oasis seem capable of making that distinction. As long as they can continue to drive a better car than at home, earn more money and pretend not to know that their wife is being caned by the personal trainer they seem oblivious to the facts of life..
oblivious or not...it's not like 'we' can actually do anything...if it happens, you can only hope you are not around...so you may as well live your life and get on with it. Walking around in fear isn't going to help anyone, avoiding places is pretty useless and most of the time impossible, even being extra vigilant seems pointless cause what would you be looking for, by the time you see a guy with a machine gun it's too late...if 'it' happens, it will probably be unexpected anyway. The facts of life at this point in time is that the world is a fcked up place, see what happened in Tunisia. One moment you are lying on the beach alive, next moment you're dead.
So yes, I go about my daily life just like I have always done and hope that all will be ok.
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Old Jun 28th 2015, 11:31 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by MataHari View Post
oblivious or not...it's not like 'we' can actually do anything...if it happens, you can only hope you are not around...so you may as well live your life and get on with it. Walking around in fear isn't going to help anyone, avoiding places is pretty useless and most of the time impossible, even being extra vigilant seems pointless cause what would you be looking for, by the time you see a guy with a machine gun it's too late...if 'it' happens, it will probably be unexpected anyway. The facts of life at this point in time is that the world is a fcked up place, see what happened in Tunisia. One moment you are lying on the beach alive, next moment you're dead.
So yes, I go about my daily life just like I have always done and hope that all will be ok.
Life goes on. No need to walk around in fear, but denial of possibility is dangerous..
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Old Jun 28th 2015, 11:36 am
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Default Re: Terror attacks in the UAE

Originally Posted by MataHari View Post
oblivious or not...it's not like 'we' can actually do anything...if it happens, you can only hope you are not around...so you may as well live your life and get on with it. Walking around in fear isn't going to help anyone, avoiding places is pretty useless and most of the time impossible, even being extra vigilant seems pointless cause what would you be looking for, by the time you see a guy with a machine gun it's too late...if 'it' happens, it will probably be unexpected anyway. The facts of life at this point in time is that the world is a fcked up place, see what happened in Tunisia. One moment you are lying on the beach alive, next moment you're dead.
So yes, I go about my daily life just like I have always done and hope that all will be ok, Insha'allah....
I've corrected that for you....
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