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Re: Snap Election 8 June!
It's all quite simple.
While May was elected by her MPs as the Tory leader and thus the Prime Minister as the Tories have the majority in Parliament, she was not elected by the country. Cameron claimed that mantle because took the party into the 2015 General Election and won. Some of the accusations against May is that she lacks the mandate to carry through Brexit because she was not elected by the voters in a proper General Election (leaving aside the fact that PMs are never elected by the voters outside their constituencies, but as figureheads of their parties they are sort of indirectly elected). The Tories have a small majority of 17 votes in Parliament, which means May is too open to potential revolts by Parliament as she negotiates the Brexit withdrawal. On top of this, polling for the last half year have shown the Tories with a whopping great big lead and now it's about 20 points ahead of Labour. This is phenomenal. This will return a majority of at least 100 seats and possibly as many as 150 seats. May goes to the country in a snap election, wins a major landslide, which gives her the final 'mandate' and thus no questioning the legitimacy of her premiership, removes the obstacles in Parliament towards Brexit, hampers any efforts to slow down Brexit or avoid a hard Brexit. A lesser point to many people (but definitely not to her) is that the current government is still, to some degree, hampered by their manifesto from the 2015 GE victory. However, that government no longer exists, Cameron is no longer prime minister, and May has quite a different vision and cabinet and will want to have her own manifesto for the country's future and she will offer that during the GE and bolsters her legitimacy in pursuing her own platform without cries of abandoning the manifesto. Is it possible that the snap election could backfire? Yes, as anything is possible. Is it likely that it will backfire? No. She is still gambling to an extent and I do agree that she was reluctant to call a GE to begin with, but was fearful that the razor thin majority and political obstinacy from the other parties would hinder her during the Brexit negotiations and as such decided it was worth it to go for a GE. It really makes perfect political sense when one thinks about it. Gordon Brown was always hampered by that he never called a snap election of his own and as such had never won his own mandate and it did hurt his premiership. If, for some reason, she loses and the Tories do not have a majority, I don't think anyone really knows what it means for Brexit. Depends on who wins what. But this is not a point worth speculating too much on because the Tories won't lose. The only question is by how much will they win.
Originally Posted by Irishbeekeeper
(Post 12231944)
Can someone please explain in layman terms that why someone who just got elected would call another election? What's the logic in that? Does she feel she will win again? If yes, then why the need to call the elections? If no, then is she ****ed in the head? And furthermore, if she doesn't win then does that mean that brexit is off the table?
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Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
(Post 12231963)
It's all quite simple.
While May was elected by her MPs as the Tory leader and thus the Prime Minister as the Tories have the majority in Parliament, she was not elected by the country. Cameron claimed that mantle because took the party into the 2015 General Election and won. Some of the accusations against May is that she lacks the mandate to carry through Brexit because she was not elected by the voters in a proper General Election (leaving aside the fact that PMs are never elected by the voters outside their constituencies, but as figureheads of their parties they are sort of indirectly elected). The Tories have a small majority of 17 votes in Parliament, which means May is too open to potential revolts by Parliament as she negotiates the Brexit withdrawal. On top of this, polling for the last half year have shown the Tories with a whopping great big lead and now it's about 20 points ahead of Labour. This is phenomenal. This will return a majority of at least 100 seats and possibly as many as 150 seats. May goes to the country in a snap election, wins a major landslide, which gives her the final 'mandate' and thus no questioning the legitimacy of her premiership, removes the obstacles in Parliament towards Brexit, hampers any efforts to slow down Brexit or avoid a hard Brexit. A lesser point to many people (but definitely not to her) is that the current government is still, to some degree, hampered by their manifesto from the 2015 GE victory. However, that government no longer exists, Cameron is no longer prime minister, and May has quite a different vision and cabinet and will want to have her own manifesto for the country's future and she will offer that during the GE and bolsters her legitimacy in pursuing her own platform without cries of abandoning the manifesto. Is it possible that the snap election could backfire? Yes, as anything is possible. Is it likely that it will backfire? No. She is still gambling to an extent and I do agree that she was reluctant to call a GE to begin with, but was fearful that the razor thin majority and political obstinacy from the other parties would hinder her during the Brexit negotiations and as such decided it was worth it to go for a GE. It really makes perfect political sense when one thinks about it. Gordon Brown was always hampered by that he never called a snap election of his own and as such had never won his own mandate and it did hurt his premiership. If, for some reason, she loses and the Tories do not have a majority, I don't think anyone really knows what it means for Brexit. Depends on who wins what. But this is not a point worth speculating too much on because the Tories won't lose. The only question is by how much will they win. They will lose seats for sure. Almost every one i speak to back home who has voted for snp in past hates every word that comes out of sturgeons mouth now(even if they lose 5 or so seats it will shut her up) and that will be another problem sorted for UK government |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by LouisB
(Post 12231905)
A cons majority and mandate for hard brexit at any cost (not that there may be much choice).
Makes me glad to remember I'm leaving the UK shortly, I could not bare to be here during that. Good luck to all. |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by Irishbeekeeper
(Post 12231944)
Can someone please explain in layman terms that why someone who just got elected would call another election? What's the logic in that? Does she feel she will win again? If yes, then why the need to call the elections? If no, then is she ****ed in the head? And furthermore, if she doesn't win then does that mean that brexit is off the table?
Meanwhile labour busy killing themselves and being completely useless. Ideal time to take a snap GE, win a landslide and lock in the mandate and long unquestionable ruling before brexit car crash can no longer be contained and people might start to question the point of it all... Brexit may be going on for years, by 2020 we might be in peak shitstorm or heading for it, labour might be sorting themselves out, a GE then would could be bad for the tories. Self fulfilling shitsorm pre-emption. |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by LouisB
(Post 12232005)
She was never elected. In a year or two what brexit really means may be fully unveiled and it may look like a rusty robin reliant - not good for a GE or brexit conclusion.
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Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by IKnowNothing
(Post 12232011)
Which are made of fibreglass, hence "The plastic pig"....
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Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by LouisB
(Post 12232015)
Good point, on second thoughts a robin reliant is bad enough anyway 😄
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Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by tuhler
(Post 12231985)
Surely that is what all cons want...the hardest brexit possible...freeing gb once and for of the vicious hand of brussels..allowing gb to once again rise above all
I'd say this snap election is likely to lead to a cleaner and "softer" Brexit if anything. May wants a business friendly deal and is shrewd enough to make concessions to get it. Before this, May had to rely on her hardcore Eurosceptic backbenchers' support. That limited her ability to soften her stance on migration, or exit fees, or tariffs. But with a large majority she can afford to ignore the hardest core of the backbenchers. That's why the pound rallied hard yesterday imo. The election makes a business-friendly Brexit more likely |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
It goes both ways.
A bigger majority reduces May's dependence on the hardliners, but it also reduces her dependency on the wets. Fraser Nelson had a good commentary in today's DT. A large part of May's decision to go for a GE surely must rest upon not wanting to be tied to Cameron's 2015 manifesto. Remember the flip-flopping over the slight tax increase a month ago? Much of it was due to potential rebellion among the backbenchers as it contravened the 2015 manifesto. She wants to be free to do her own thing. And she has a different vision. Will be interesting to see what she goes for, both at home and in Brussels. But I have confidence.
Originally Posted by dominoman
(Post 12232329)
Not all Conservative MPs want a hard Brexit. Only just over 1/3 of them voted for Brexit at all in the referendum.
I'd say this snap election is likely to lead to a cleaner and "softer" Brexit if anything. May wants a business friendly deal and is shrewd enough to make concessions to get it. Before this, May had to rely on her hardcore Eurosceptic backbenchers' support. That limited her ability to soften her stance on migration, or exit fees, or tariffs. But with a large majority she can afford to ignore the hardest core of the backbenchers. That's why the pound rallied hard yesterday imo. The election makes a business-friendly Brexit more likely |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by dominoman
(Post 12232329)
I'd say this snap election is likely to lead to a cleaner and "softer" Brexit if anything.
May wants a business friendly deal and is shrewd enough to make concessions to get it. Before this, May had to rely on her hardcore Eurosceptic backbenchers' support. That limited her ability to soften her stance on migration, or exit fees, or tariffs. But with a large majority she can afford to ignore the hardest core of the backbenchers. That's why the pound rallied hard yesterday imo. The election makes a business-friendly Brexit more likely I'd be careful to assume voting cons will lead to a nice shiny lovely fluffy brexit. Given track record, you may be handing them the keys to do whatever they like which may well include the already stated 'no deal better than bad deal', zero analysis of hard brexit fuelled hard brexit at any cost... |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by LouisB
(Post 12232346)
It remains to be seen if we really have much say over the brexit we get in the end. I'm not sure we'll get much freedom, if we're really leaving. More like damage limitation.
I'd be careful to assume voting cons will lead to a nice shiny lovely fluffy brexit. Given track record, you may be handing them the keys to do whatever they like which may well include the already stated 'no deal better than bad deal', zero analysis of hard brexit fuelled hard brexit at any cost... The more Europe talks about the need to punish Britain for leaving, the more it shows the insecurity and weakness of their position. They're the ones on the Titanic heading straight towards the iceberg. Britain is already on board the lifeboat. |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by dominoman
(Post 12232355)
I'll be waiting to see the Manifesto before deciding if I'll be backing May. But "No deal better than a bad deal" is exactly where I stand.
The more Europe talks about the need to punish Britain for leaving, the more it shows the insecurity and weakness of their position. They're the ones on the Titanic heading straight towards the iceberg. Britain is already on board the lifeboat. Tusk said the opposite, Brexit was punishment enough (he is right) The daily trash said they are punishing us. Use that to wipe your arse, not discover news about the EU. |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Only someone either in denial or who hasn't been following the commentaries and statements from major EU figures including Juncker would say that. :blink: Your confusion may stem from that there is still a difference between the EU parliament and its representatives (including both Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt) and the actual 27 governments of the various EU nations, who have generally been much more conciliatory.
Originally Posted by LouisB
(Post 12232360)
Where did Europe (EU) say it needs to punish Britain exactly?
Tusk said the opposite, Brexit was punishment enough (he is right) The daily trash said they are punishing us. Use that to wipe your arse, not discover news about the EU. |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
(Post 12232369)
Only someone either in denial or who hasn't been following the commentaries and statements from major EU figures including Juncker would say that. :blink: Your confusion may stem from that there is still a difference between the EU parliament and its representatives (including both Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt) and the actual 27 governments of the various EU nations, who have generally been much more conciliatory.
Be careful not to confuse consequences of our loss with punishment 🤦â€â™‚ï¸ðŸ˜‰ |
Re: Snap Election 8 June!
Originally Posted by tuhler
(Post 12231985)
Surely that is what all cons want...the hardest brexit possible...freeing gb once and for of the vicious hand of brussels..allowing gb to once again rise above all
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