Snap Election 8 June!

Old Apr 18th 2017, 10:16 am
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Default Snap Election 8 June!

Breaking out of my self imposed exile (sorry, didn't get hit by a bus).

May to seek snap election for 8 June - BBC News

Whoa!

June is the cursed month. 2014 - Scottish referendum, 2015 - GE victory by Cameron, 2016 - Brexit, and now 2017 - utter annihilation of Labour and the final destruction of the party (one can hope but we'll see).
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 10:21 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
June is the cursed month. 2014 - Scottish referendum, 2015 - GE victory by Cameron, 2016 - Brexit, and now 2017 - utter annihilation of Labour and the final destruction of the party (one can hope but we'll see).
Agreed, and the SNP lot too. I suggest a majority around the 100 mark, (yes I now it's not for the scottish parliament but it'll show the krankie who's in charge).

Gives the UK Government a massive shot in the arm for the Brexit negotiations too.

May will cream it.
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 10:22 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Beat me to the crunch! Literally watching it unfold on the screens in our office.

Labour is f**ked, they will be wiped out. Lib Dems will regain a few of their old seats and a few heavy remainer voting constituencies.

I predict a majority Conservative government though (which would also support the recent polls)
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 10:31 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

How big is the majority, that is the question.

Originally Posted by ExpatAl View Post
Beat me to the crunch! Literally watching it unfold on the screens in our office.

Labour is f**ked, they will be wiped out. Lib Dems will regain a few of their old seats and a few heavy remainer voting constituencies.

I predict a majority Conservative government though (which would also support the recent polls)
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 10:37 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
How big is the majority, that is the question.
Over 100 for sure, might put down a few quid...
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 10:46 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

As much as 150?

I went to a random electoral calculator and put in the Tories at 45 and Labour at 25 and LibDemmers at 10 and UKIP at 8 and resulted in a Tory majority of 154.

Theory is that UKIP will swing to Tory (May's statement that every vote for conservatives makes her stronger was clearly aimed at them) and LibDemmers won't get much of a bump despite their hopes as the anti-Brexit party because Farron is a moron and there's not enough weak Tory remainers concentrated enough to swing seats to the LibDems (other than maybe one or two, but vastly offset by gains from Labour).

Maybe this will be the election that will finally destroy the Labour stranglehold on the North. London will stick with Labour, unless, by some magical feat, LibDem manages to convert sizeable London Labour supporters to their party - but this runs into the Farron is a ****head problem.

Originally Posted by ExpatAl View Post
Over 100 for sure, might put down a few quid...

Last edited by DXBtoDOH; Apr 18th 2017 at 10:48 am.
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 11:02 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
As much as 150?

I went to a random electoral calculator and put in the Tories at 45 and Labour at 25 and LibDemmers at 10 and UKIP at 8 and resulted in a Tory majority of 154.

Theory is that UKIP will swing to Tory (May's statement that every vote for conservatives makes her stronger was clearly aimed at them) and LibDemmers won't get much of a bump despite their hopes as the anti-Brexit party because Farron is a moron and there's not enough weak Tory remainers concentrated enough to swing seats to the LibDems (other than maybe one or two, but vastly offset by gains from Labour).

Maybe this will be the election that will finally destroy the Labour stranglehold on the North. London will stick with Labour, unless, by some magical feat, LibDem manages to convert sizeable London Labour supporters to their party - but this runs into the Farron is a ****head problem.
I've got roughly the same. I would probably have Lib Dems a bit higher given their success during recent council by-elections and cementing themselves as an anti-Brexit party (whereas Labour do not seem to hold a consistent view on the issue)

I feel that the era of tribal politics is over, diehard Labour supporters are dwindling and voters are more fluid with who they back. Labour will hold onto most of their London seats and the Torys will win back the 'donut' of London in the outer suburbs (such as Hillingdon). The North will be interesting to watch...

Can't stand little Timmy Farron!
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 11:15 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Breaking out of my self imposed exile (sorry, didn't get hit by a bus).

May to seek snap election for 8 June - BBC News

Whoa!

June is the cursed month. 2014 - Scottish referendum, 2015 - GE victory by Cameron, 2016 - Brexit, and now 2017 - utter annihilation of Labour and the final destruction of the party (one can hope but we'll see).
Welcome back. I did notice....

Cons 1/12
Lab 7/1
Lib Dem 33/1
UKIP (lol) 80/1
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 11:37 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
Welcome back. I did notice....

Cons 1/12
Lab 7/1
Lib Dem 33/1
UKIP (lol) 80/1
Rubbish odds, at least I managed to get 4/1 on both Brexit and Trump coming true (made a few bob)
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 11:41 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by ExpatAl View Post
Rubbish odds, at least I managed to get 4/1 on both Brexit and Trump coming true (made a few bob)
4/1 on a double?

I got 5/1 on Trump alone.
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 11:46 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
4/1 on a double?

I got 5/1 on Trump alone.
I should've been clearer, 4/1 on both as separate bets.
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 11:57 am
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Originally Posted by ExpatAl View Post
I should've been clearer, 4/1 on both as separate bets.
I didn't bet on Brexit but I had Trump and was a lovely win. Can't believe it stayed such high odds after Brexit too. Easy money.
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 6:05 pm
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!


CON: 46% (+2)
LAB: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
UKIP: 8% (-3)
GRN: 4 (-)

(via ICM / 18 Apr, post-1100hrs)

Snap poll following today's announcement of a GE.

Lab + LibDem+Grn in a coalition (assuming we had proportional representation) still wouldn't beat the Tories.

A severely depressed Lab turnout + ongoing shift of UKIP voters to the Tory fold could see a final result of 50%+ Tory victory, which means who cares what the rest of the parties get.

Using this theory, tried a few electoral calculators and pretty much got the same results:

CON: +96, 427 seats
LAB: -97, 135 seats
Libbers: +1, 9 seats (obviously a flaw here as they already have nine seats due to the by-election)

Whoa. Will make for an interesting night on 8 June. Will the Tories break through the Labour wall in the North? If they manage to breach that stronghold, British politics has fundamentally changed forever.
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 6:11 pm
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

A cons majority and mandate for hard brexit at any cost (not that there may be much choice).

Makes me glad to remember I'm leaving the UK shortly, I could not bare to be here during that. Good luck to all.
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Old Apr 18th 2017, 6:58 pm
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Default Re: Snap Election 8 June!

Can someone please explain in layman terms that why someone who just got elected would call another election? What's the logic in that? Does she feel she will win again? If yes, then why the need to call the elections? If no, then is she ****ed in the head? And furthermore, if she doesn't win then does that mean that brexit is off the table?
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