Re: NCR llockdown
 

National cases yesterday went up by only 45 to 1,283. Latest testing also only up a little to 11.6k.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...cde1c5e581f665

Now we know why testing numbers are lower. Only severe cases are now being tested. How long was this going on before they "bared" this? Probably many weeks, judging by the rapid decline in testing. The protocol change is going to reduce the case count. Before this we knew that Omicron infections were more likely not to be reported than those from previous variants. Now many more not included. The statistics look better and the DOH saves money. Positivity rates will be higher but not give such a good indication of population infection rates.
As the DOH have previously said they are looking much more at health facility utilization lately. Though whether they are monitoring patients in non primary facilities and at home is not known. Important as a large proportion of covid patients earlier in the pandemic did not get to a primary hospital.
The DOH say that case numbers are only for their "internal monitoring" But important to note that case increases are somewhat more serious than before as the numbers will not include those with mild or asymptomatic infections.

Active 18,899, up 487

Location detail

NCR up 69 to 457 and a higher 36% of all cases. QC 88, Manila 66.

CL down 17 to 70...Bulacan 31.
4A down 14 to 169..Cavite 62, Rizal 41, Laguna 40.

The OCTA group seeing recent fast NCR case growth. Quite recent as I only calculated a 7% increase in my last weekly report.
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...31d4c82187b9f6

These 3 regions again at a stable 54% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 35
Ilocos 66
Cagayan up 83 to 123
Bicol 38

Visayas cases down 19 to 159.
MIMAROPA 0!
WV down to 52, CV up 17 to 91.
Cebu City 28

Mindanao cases down by 5 to 156
Zamboanga region up 14 to 39, its main city 10.
Davao City 6.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...28d3e421a0.png
Dr Susan Oliver, as usual, taking Dr John Campbell to task over his recent videos, which I have reported on here, on the viral origins of SARS Cor 2.
She gives some persuasive evidence that the lab leak theory is very unlikely to be true and that the Wuhan Seafood Market was the source of zoonotic origin spread to humans. From live animals, not seafood. She points out there is a timing problem with the evidence over early spread to Italy and disputes the accuracy of the tests used by the researchers there. Generally unhappy with the US Senate report discussed by Dr John though did not discuss its evidence in detail eg the China spread data there.
She gives a link there to an earlier video by her on this.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Nearly 50 fewer cases announced yesterday at 1,234. Latest testing up 1.1k to 12.7k.
Active 18,430, down 469.

Location data

The NCR with 24 fewer cases at 433 and 35% of all cases. Manila 75, QC 65.

CL up 31 to 101...Bulacan 29, Pampanga 23, Tarlac 21.
4A also up...by 34 to 101. Rizal 61, Cavite 55, Laguna 54.

These 3 regions up to 60% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 45
Ilocos 50
Cagayan 75
Bicol 24

Visayas cases up 6 to 165.
WV up 20 to 72.
CV down 34 to 57.
Cebu City 15.

Mindanao with 32 fewer reports at 124.
NM 37.
Davao City 4.
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...c42209d238c956
The city had 7 covid deaths Nov 20 -26. Vaccinated and unvaccinated patients.. Also 155 new cases. But my records from the DOH have only 51 for that period. That 100 or so cases did not reach the DOH may be due, at least partly, to the new DOH testing protocols I mentioned yesterday.

Weekly report

Last week's % change in brackets.

National cases reported by the DOH up by 2% (-12%).

Though we must bear in mind they recently changed their PCR testing protocol and therefore case reporting. Not now reporting mild and asymptomatic cases. Not saying when the change took effect. I looked on Worldometers and didn't see any notification there on the change! Which they should have informed them about. But judging from recent test numbers it was a few weeks ago. If I'm right the small increase here gives a good idea of infection growth and is somewhat more serious than a 2% increase was a few weeks ago.

NCR up 23% (+3%)

For its 6 largest cities:

Pasig up 86% (-11%) 285 cases
Caloocan up 48%
QC up 30%
Manila up 27%
Taguig up 24% (-6%)
Paranaque up 17%

CL down 8% (-14%).....Bulacan stable.
4A up 5% (-15%).....Cavite down 3%, Laguna up 7%, Rizal up 7%, Batangas up 18% (129 cases)

Elsewhere

The CAR up 38% (-45%). Baguio City down 20% (-22%). 150 cases.
Ilocos up 12% (+7%)
Cagayan down 7% (+7%)
Bicol down 7% (-7%)

Visayas reports down 16% (-23%)
Cebu City down 12% (-17%). 168 cases.

Mindanao reports down 21% (-23%)
Davao City down 42% (-11%). But only 30 cases.

As you can see and has been reported recently by the OCTA group NCR cases are significantly up.

CL cases have fallen a little, 4A cases up a little. Parts of Cavite and Rizal being closely linked with the NCR.

The CAR and Ilocos also showing significant case growth.

Cases in the Visayas and Mindanao areas continue to fall significantly.

The overall picture is consistent with the idea that certain Omicron variants are actively spreading in the NCR,some adjoining areas and in N Luzon. You would think infection growth will soon start to show in areas further away.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 61 fewer cases at 1,173. Latest testing down nearly 2k to 10,8k.
Active 18,256, down 176.

Latest OCTA nationwide positivity up to 12.3%.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...7e8201fd683042

Location detail

NCR down 24 to 409 and again 35% of total cases. QC 94, Manila 72.

CL down 23 to 78...Tarlac 22, Bulacan 15.
4A down 19 to 184...Cavite 64, Laguna 46.

These 3 regions at a lower 57% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up 8 to 53 Baguio City 21
Ilocos up 21 to 71
Cagayan down 19 to 56
Bicol 15

Visayas reports down 7 to 158
WV 83, CV 48
Cebu City 14

Mindanao up 16 to 140.
Zamboanga City 10, Davao City 4

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bc8ffa6513.png
Dr John presenting autopsy pictures of heart muscles from people who died from heart failure post covid vaccination. He looks very angry!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Cases yesterday slightly down at 1,141. Testing down 2.7k to 8.1k. Usual weekend fall.
Active 17,907, down 349.

Location detail

NCR up 75 to 484 and 42% of all cases. QC 103, Manila 71.

CL up 32 to 110.....Bulacan 36, N Ecija 23, Pampanga 20.
4A down 6 to 178.....Cavite 56, Laguna 53, Rizal 50.

These 3 regions with a higher 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 48
Ilocos 53
Cagayan up 20 to 76
Bicol 15

Visayas case total well down to 84.
Mindanao's also to 88.

DOH weekly report

For their 7 days up to and including yesterday 7,731 cases. Compared to their previous week a 4% fall (+0.3%).
My different week had a 2% increase.
From my daily numbers for the DOH week I get 6,987, 744 fewer. They're obviously doing substantial revisions of their daily numbers soon after they are announced. From now on will check this weekly. The figures at Worldometers, which they say they get from the DOH tracker site now, also not in accord...they have 7,496 for that week, 235 fewer.

134 deaths (120) Last 2 weeks 19 of them. You have to wonder about that number also when Davao City alone recently had 7 covid deaths in one week late November.

Severe and Critical

New 2 (5)
Admitted 595 (599)

ICU 22.1% (21.6%)
Non ICU 25.3% (25.2%)

No change on last week.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 250 fewer cases announced at 883. Latest testing up by nearly 4k to 12.3k.
Active 17,481, down 426.

Location detail

NCR down by 169 to 315 cases....QC 63, Manila 35, Pasig 34.

CL down 33 to 77...Bulacan 32.
4A down 42 to 136...Cavite 55, Laguna and Rizal each 31.

These 3 regions with 60% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 44 Baguio City 14.
Ilocos 55
Cagayan 44
Bicol 4

Visayas area up 27 to 111..Cebu City 12.
Mindanao down 2 to 86...Davao City 3

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Just over 150 more cases announced yesterday at 1,037. Latest testing up 1.5k to 13.8k.
Active 17,426, up 55.

Location detail

NCR up 128 to 443 and up to 43% of all cases. QC 82, Manila 64, Pasig 48.

CL up 23 to 96....Bulacan 25, Tarlac 23, N Ecija 19.
4A up 26 to 162.....Laguna 52, Cavite and Rizal each 43.

These 3 regions with 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 19
Ilocos 35
Cagayan 45
Bicol 15

Visayas up 25 to 136.....WV 65, CV 46.
Cebu City 16

Mindanao down 4 to 82.
Davao City 2

Latest SS newsletters on a TRO here against Pediatric Vaccination and Swedish fertility data.
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Re: NCR llockdown
 

Nearly 450 more cases announced yesterday at 1,483. Tests fell on the 7th by 1.3k to 12.5k.
Active 17,994, up 568.

Note on case count:
It seems from Worldometers that the DOH adjusts its daily count the next day, sometimes substantially.
So far this week
Dec 7: down 125
Dec 6: up 27
Dec 5: down 29
Dec 4: up 18

Small daily adjustments make little difference nationally if they roughly cancel each other out over the week. Will check on this from now on. Though they could be misleading if concentrated on a few location.totals as the DOH drastically cut back on publishing location weekly totals some time ago. Analysts would need to do a lot of downloading to keep up.

Location data

NCR up 70 to 513 and down to 35% of all cases. QC 105, Manila 75.

CL up 10 to 106...Bulacan 27, Tarlac 21.
4A up 74 to 236...Laguna 69, Cavite 63, Rizal 61.

These 3 regions down to 58% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up 51 to 70.
Ilocos up 50 to 85.
Cagayan up 65 to 110.
Bicol 29

Visayas total up 36 to 172..WV 61, CV up 48 to 74
Cebu City up to 32.

Mindanao cases up 64 to 146.
Zamboanga region up to 43.
Its main city 12

Latest SS newsletter reports HK has started to push a 3rd booster.
Subscribe for free at https://supersally.substack.com/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Twenty three cases fewer yesterday at 1,460. Though the DOH continue to adjust daily totals the very next day. Every day this week so far bar one. So for December 8 there are now 31 more cases than I reported yesterday. Not a big difference but making my starting sentence then only good for a day! Latest testing down 1.9k to 10.6k.....presumably due to the holiday on Thursday.

Location detail

NCR up 67 to 580 and 40% of all cases. QC up to 135, Manila 76.

CL 110...Bulacan 38, Tarlac 22, N Ecija 21.
4A 243...Cavite 79, Laguna 72, Rizal 64.

These 3 regions up to 64% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR down to 43. Baguio city 15
Ilocos down to 68
Cagayan down to 72
Bicol up 39 to 68.

Visayas cases down 17 to 155.
Cebu City 22

Mindanao cases down 34 to 112.
Davao City 7.

Philippine vital statistics 2022
From the latest SS newsletter.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...02461bc960.png
PSA deaths data Jan-June, the most complete, showing a very similar pattern to 2019. This is a very different pattern from many other countries, where 2022 data is still showing excess deaths.

SS also reports on 2022 births here, which show a marked decline relative to 2019. Given the large population here I am not so concerned about this, but for more details on that and on deaths see her newsletter.

https://supersally.substack.com/

Following the German autopsy report on myocarditis and pericarditis deaths following covid vaccination there have been other You tube video posts on this.

Dr Moran seems to be an expert cardiologist. In his latest video he comments on the German autopsy findings I referred to on December 5 and on a Thai prospective peer reviewed study:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7470b9d671.png
Latest Medicine with Dr Moran video "Sudden death after covid shots".

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a lower national total. As the total for the day before was adjusted downwards by 129 best for me to say down by 173, not 302, on Dec 8's.
Individual test volume for Dec 9 n/a on the phone, which I am using today.
Active 18, 387, down 245.

Location detail

From now on due to the daily adjustments in the daily DOH case data, sometimes over 100 cases, I won't usually give or comment on up or down changes for locations. Unless they are large.

NCR down to 456 and at 39% of all cases. QC 74, Manila 62.

CL 100...Bulacan 46, N Ecija 26, Pampanga 15.
4A 207...Cavite and Rizal each 60, Laguna 50, Batangas 20.

These 3 regions with 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere

Car 59
Ilocos 45
Cagayan 75
Bicol 21

Visayas cases down to 113
Mindanao's down to a low 78.

Weekly report coming later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 1,134 new cases announced. 54 fewer than the adjusted total for the 10th at 1,188. Latest testing at 10.3k, down 0.3k on the latest figure given on the 9th.
Active 18,252, down 135.

Location detail

NCR up to 480 and a higher 42% of all cases. QC 90, Manila 78, Taguig 67.

CL 86.....Bulacan 32, Pampanga 17.
4A 188....Cavite 59, Laguna 51, Rizal 40.

These 3 regions with again 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 39
Ilocos 70
Cagayan 28
Bicol 15

Visayas regions 132.
Mindanao 87

Weekly report

Total daily announced cases from last week: 8335
Adjusted daily totals: 8058

As I have no record of adjusted cases for the previous week best for now to compare the unadjusted totals. Up 5% (+2%).
Next week I will be able to compare the adjusted totals.

For the locations continuing to work with unadjusted daily figures. The change last week was only 3.3% nationally on the unadjusted total so if that scale continues it is likely they will still give a reasonable indication of the weekly change. But we will see.

NCR up 16% (+23%)

By its 6 largest cities:

Taguig up 46% (+24%)
Paranaque up 28% (+17%)
QC up 26% (+30%)
Caloocan up 21% (+28%)
Manila up 2% (+27%)
Pasig down 14% (+86%) But still 245 cases.

CL up 20% (-8%)
Bulacan up 5% (-2%), N Ecija up 60%, Pampanga up 38%, Tarlac up 28%.

4A up 23% (+5%)
Cavite up 23% (-3%), Laguna up 30% (+7%), Rizal up 26% (+7%)

Elsewhere

CAR down slightly
Ilocos stable
Cagayan up 15% (-7%)
Bicol down slightly

Visayas region down 13% (-16%)
Mindanao down 19% (down 21%)

Cases are now not including most mild infections, so a national weekly increase of 5% is more significant than it was a few weeks ago. Involving the NCR and its surrounding provinces. Cagayan only in N Luzon. VisMin regions not yet included.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...af7ad829fb.png
Dr John looks at China and their vaccination programme now as they loosen their zero Covid policies. They have rejected buying mRNA vaccines from Western companies and will continue with their traditional "dead virus" ones. Dr John comes over now as fairly anti mRNA vaccine, though he does not want to give on air or does not know about their considerable advantages over traditional types, especially in breadth of protection and manufacturing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases announced yesterday actually up a little rather than down a little as Sunday's total has been revised down by 162. At 1,115...for now. Sunday testing well down at 8.0k.

Location detail

NCR down by over 100 to 387 and 35% of all cases.

CL up 30 to 116....Bulacan 35, N Ecija 30, Pampanga 22.
4A about the same at 184.....Cavite 70, Rizal 41, Laguna 38.

These 3 regions at 62% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 27
Ilocos 47
Cagayan well up at 85
Bicol 27

Visayas regions 138
Mindanao 95

DOH Weekly report

Cases up 7% (-4%)
Deaths 156 (134) 30 Dec, 36 Nov
New admissions 6 (2)
Admitted 650 (595)
ICU 22.4% (22.1%)
Non ICU 24.0% (25.3%)

Slightly more covid hospital utilization.

Latest OCTA positivity report showing rises in NCR cities and most 4A and CL provinces. Rises also in Mountain Province and Kalinga. Patchy as there were also falls in Laguna, Bataan and Ilocos Norte.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases announced yesterday at 791. Down 354 on the day before's adjusted upwards total. Latest testing up to 11.5k.
Active 18,016, down 339.

Location detail

NCR 330 and a higher 42% of all cases. QC 71, Manila 52.

CL down 47 to 69.....Bulucan 30.
4A down 52 to 136.....Cavite 52, Rizal 42.

These 3 regions up to 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 33 Baguio City 8.
Ilocos 50
Cagayan 34
Bicol 4

Visayas well down at 68. Cebu City 2
MIndanao also to 59. Davao City 1

Latest E and SE Asian new cases table from Worldometers.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...281ca4aa44.png
Japan standing out with its well established upward trends in both cases and deaths.
China cases also trending upwards though saying deaths low and constant.
S Korea and HK both with moderately upward trends in both cases and deaths.
Taiwan cases and deaths moderately trending downwards.
Thailand with both cases and deaths fairly low and constant
Cases in Indonesia and Malaysia clearly falling, deaths low.
Vietnam: cases and deaths both very low.
Note; Philippines case numbers now not including mild and asymptomatic cases.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases announced yesterday at 1.009 were (after a large downward "next day" adjustment of 121 for Tuesday) up by 339.
Latest testing up to 13.8k.

Location detail

NCR 368...37% of all cases. QC 89, Manila 58.

CL up 43 to 112.....Bulacan 26, Tarlac 29, Pampanga 16.
4A up 58 to 194......Laguna 60, Cavite 51, Rizal 44.

These 3 regions with 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 22 Baguio City 15
Ilocos 25
Cagayan 44
Bicol 17

Visayas cases up 60 to 128.
WV 66, CV 36.
Cebu City 11

Mindanao cases up 30 to 89.
Davao City 0. Also GenSan City.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7bd8d0c55c.png
Dr Been's latest You tube video on nasal explanations (other than more inside crowding) as to why viruses infect us more when it's cplder. But does this apply much in sub tropical climates, like the Philippines?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

There were nearly 150 more cases announced yesterday over the upwardly adjusted total on Wednesday at 1,184.
Latest testing down 1.7k to 12.1k.

Location detail

NCR up 138 to 506 and 43% of all cases. QC 99, Taguig 68, Manila 63, Pasig 43.

CL down to 97.....Bulacan 40, N Ecija 16.
4A stable at 193.....Laguna 55, Cavite 47, Rizal 45, Batangas 34.

These 3 regions again with 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 22 Baguio City 11.
Ilocos up to 54
Cagayan up to 68
Bicol 11

Visayas cases down at 144.
Cebu City 15

Mindanao cases down to 78.
CDO City 9, Davao City 5.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Cases announced yesterday were adjusted down by 114 making a total up by 236. But this may change tomorrow when we find out by how much the 1,306 announced yesterday will be adjusted! Latest testing down to 11.3k.

Location detail

NCR up slightly to 513 and down to 39% of all cases. QC up 33 to 132, Manila up to 74.

CL up to 108......Bulacan 44, N Ecija 16.
4A up 55 to 248.....Laguna 84, Rizal 66. Both provinces highest so far this week. Cavite up to 60.

These 3 regions maintain 67% of all cases. Third day in a row,

Elsewhere

CAR 340 Baguio City 11
Ilocos 42
Cagayan 42
Bicol 22

Visayas total about the same at 142.
Cebu City 18.

Mindanao cases highest so far this week.
Mainly due to a much higher 56 cases from the Zamboanga region.
Zamboanga City 17
Davao City 9.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...893b207f12.png
Dr John looks at the situation in Beijing, courtesy of Dr Li. Saying the Omicron variant there, better called BA 5.2.17, has a very high R0 of 10-18.6. The zero covid policy has been greatly changed. Called the "coronavirus cold". Cases rocketing there leading to many workers off sick. Nearly all cases mild but given the population size there will be many deaths. Figures about we won't trust in the West. On that subject Dr John at the end doubles down on a lab leak being the origin of SARS Cor 2.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday's case announcement 151 down on a 39 greater Friday total. Latest testing down by 0.6k at 10.7k.
Active 18,262, down 648.

Location detail

NCR 471 and 39% of all cases. QC 106, Manila 47.

CL up slightly to 114...Bulacan 52, Tarlac 22.
4A down to 224...Cavite 75, Rizal again 66, Laguna 53.

These 3 regions with 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 32 Baguio City 12.
Ilocos up to 53
Cagayan up to 52
Bicol 13

Visayas reports down to 126.....WV 46, CV 46.
Cebu City 13.

Mindanao down to 107.
Davao City 3.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e4432ebd14.png
The downward Philippine vaccination trend since June 2022.

For more on vaccination, including adverse reaction data, see SS latest newsletter.
https://supersally.substack.com/

Weekly report tomorrow.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A substantial downward adjustment of Friday's total meant yesterday's announcement of 973 was, for now, 93 down on the day before's. For the past calendar week next day revisions have been 425 down or averaging about 60 a day.
Latest testing down to 10.0k.

Location data

NCR 406 and 42% of all cases. QC 94, Manila 46.

CL 78....Bulacan 26
4A 159.....Rizal 47, Cavite 46, Laguna 34

These 3 regions with 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 20. Baguio City 12
Ilocos 48
Cagayan 33
Bicol 17

Visayas cases 122...WV 64, CV 40
Cebu City 9

Mindanao cases 83
Davao City 4

Weekly Report

Last week's % change in brackets.

Using adjusted daily totals national cases were down 9% (+5%).

Some caution with the following data as they are from the unadjusted daily totals.
Next week will have some adjusted location data.

NCR down 5% (+16%)
Caloocan City up 14%
Taguig up 12%
QC up 5%
Manila down 7%
Pasig down 10%
Paranaque down 14%

CL cases up 4% (+20%).
Bulacan up 18% (+5%), Pampanga down 8% (+38%), N Ecija down 13% (+60%).

4A cases up 2% (+23%)
Cavite down 2% (+23%), Laguna down 1% (+30%), Rizal down 3% (+26%), Batangas up 33%, Quezon no change.

Elsewhere

CAR down 39%...Baguio City down 26%.
Ilocos down 17%
Cagayan down 26%
Bicol down 34%

Visayas cases down 7% (-13%)
Cebu City down 17%.

Mindanao cases down 9% (-19%)
Davao City down 17%.

Improving infection numbers in the great majority of areas.
Locations showing case increases were in 3 NCR cities and in Bulacan and Batangas provinces.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 137 fewer reports over the day before's. Which were adjusted upwards by 27. Making 863 yesterday.
Latest testing well down to 8.0k.

Location detail

NCR 338 and a lower 39% of all cases. QC 82, Manila 50.

CL 69...Bulacan 21, N Ecija 19.
4A up at 182...Cavite 59, Laguna 50, Rizal 41.

These 3 regions with 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 15
Ilocos 30
Cagayan up to 56
Bicol 18

Visayas 76
Mindanao 69

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c5a980f82a.png
Dr John fills out the UK Yellow Card form online for his possible vaccine induced hypertension. Rails against the lack of interest in covid vaccine adverse reactions in the House of Commons.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f09337a092.png
Absurd Canadian research of questionable motivation heavily criticized by Dr John in 2 recent videos.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a much lower 626 cases announced. Also the case total for Monday was marked down by 126 to 737.
Latest testing up to 10.4k. Would expect lower testing and cases in these coming Xmas run up days.
Active 17,263, down 330.

Location detail

NCR 258 and 41% of all cases. QC 65, Manila 39.

CL 52....Bulacan 21, N Ecija 12.
4A 97....Cavite 32, Rizal 26, Laguna 21

These 3 regions with a lower 65% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 20
Ilocos 39
Cagayan 26
Bicol 2

Visayas stable at 77 cases. Cebu City 22
Mindanao cases well down at 44.

The BBC reporting on the very narrow Chinese covid death definition.
I would add to what they are saying that deaths in these Omicron times are much less due to lung infection, respiratory failure, pneumonia but much more by chronic illness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64044204

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cc86736c6f.png
Not that covid death counting is at all accurate in the Philippines...the DOH total has been about half of that estimated by the PSA. But surely Chinese reports for deaths (and cases) are ludicrously low?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the DOH announced 184 more cases over the previous day's total, which increased by 13 after adjustment. Latest testing up slightly to 11.4k.
Active 16,896, down 367. Recent continual decline in the active total at least partly due to the DOH's reduced testing protocol.

Location detail

NCR 339 cases, which maintains a 41% share of all cases. QC 88,Manila 53.

CL 84...Bulacan 24, N Ecija 16.
4A up 54 to 151...Laguna 46, Cavite 40, Rizal 35.

These 3 regions with a higher 70% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 16...Baguio City 10
Ilocos 29
Cagayan 25
Bicol 19

Visayas case total 92.
Cebu City 5

Mindanao 62.
Davao City 5

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...55654f0f44.png
Latest video from Dr Susan Oliver in which she is unhappy with Dr John Campbell's recent comparison of mRNA and inactivated vaccines, the latter type used in China for covid. She also has a go at him over his continual pushing of the aspiration technique to be used by all vaccinators.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 1,031 new cases announced. Case numbers for Wednesday were revised down by 127 to 696. Latest testing went down 1.2k to 10.2k.
Active 16,900, up 4.

Location detail

NCR 377 and a lower 37% of all cases. QC 88, Manila 46, Taguig 42.

CL up to 113...Bulacan 38, Pampanga 26
4A up to 183...Laguna 58, Cavite 47, Rizal 45

These 3 regions with a lower 65% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 18 Baguio City 5
Ilocos 57
Cagayan 42
Bicol 18

Visayas regions 118
Cebu City 10

Mindanao 102
Davao City 6

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 850 cases announced. The total for the 22nd was revised upwards by 17. So an increase of nearly 200. Latest test report down to 9.7k.
Active 16,994, up 94

Location detail

NR 354 cases...a higher 42% of the national total. QC 93, Manila 35.

CL down to 82.....Bulacan 23, Pampanga 22.
4A down to 146....Cavite 45, Laguna 37

These 3 regions with 69% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 14 Baguio City 7
Ilocos 29
Cagayn 43
Bicol 16

Visayas cases down to 83
Cebu City 3

Mindanao down to 77
Davao City 9

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...pected-to-rise

DOH again advising people to be careful over the Xmas/New Year holidays. Mixing over Undas was a lot lower than expected and so their warnings of a big case increase then were not proved correct. Now we have evidence of the China variant here and, something they don't mention, cooler weather. Lower temperatures inhibit the workings of our mucosal immune system.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3332e1f78b.png
In the two previous years there have been case rises in January. This time they may be understated as the DOH have restricted PCR testing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the total announced seemingly down to 834. But as yesterday's number was later reduced by 110 there was actually an increase of 96 cases. But then today's number will likely be adjusted tomorrow..... Latest daily test report down to 8.5k.
Active 16,489, down 505

Location detail

NCR 323 and a lower 39% of all cases. QC 77, Manila 37.

CL stable at 83...Bulacan 32, Pampanga 19.
4A 152...Laguna 47, Rizal 40, Cavite 28, Batangas 27.

These 3 regions with 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 26 Baguio City 14
Ilocos 23
Cagayan 36
Bicol 18

Visayas regions 89.
Cebu City 11

Mindanao 76
Davao City 6

Latest SE and E Asian covid case and death daily report from Worldometers:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f9051c7f0a.png
Japan and SK standing out. China should be but its data obviously greatly under reported.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a849ffa4ca.png
Dr John shows leaked reports from a meeting of China's CDC.

Weekly report tomorrow.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly Report

Percentage changes last week in brackets.

Based on adjusted daily totals national cases fell by 22% (-9%) over the week before.

Regional changes below are all based on unadjusted daily totals.
Though the difference is likely to be only a few percent.

NCR cases fell by 22% (-5%)
Cases in all of its 6 largest cities fell between 14 and 33%.

CL's fell by 20% (+4%).....Bulacan 28%, Pampanga +9%
4A's by 22% (+2%)......Cavite 28%, Laguna 20%, Rizal 24%

Visayas totals fall by 24% (-7%)
Mindanao by 23% (-9%)

So generally over the country much greater percentage case falls this week over last week's.

Just the caveat that testing is now much lower than a few months ago and the DOH doesn't say in detail how their new protocol of not testing all the suspected infections coming to them is working out.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9637a4f977.png
Future Manila llockdown posts:

It's a bit time consuming and cases are low so from now on I will only post a weekly report on case data.. Though if cases increase significantly I may reconsider that.

I will be calculating from the DOH cumulative totals for future weekly reports..That is much easier but trialing it last week there were differences from the totals of the adjusted daily figures. Eg for national figures it was 167 fewer. Not a big difference so will work with the cumulative totals.The issue is if those 167 cases were for that week? As in the past the DOH have been known to find or cancel cases from many weeks or even months back in time. That reduces the relevance of the data to the course of the infection. Eventually we can look at the DOH charts, which are based on estimated time of infection, But these are much delayed to be updated.

I will still post other updates on covid here from the DOH and from other sources as and when.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

DOH Weekly Report

Cases down 25% (-2%)
I reported yesterday a 22% fall for my calendar week.

Deaths 172 (186)....Dec 27, Nov 10, Oct 15, Sep 19.....back to Aug 2020.

Hospital data

3 new admissions (7)
Admitted 516 (592)
ICU 19.1% (20.4%)
Non ICU 17.6% (22.5%)


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e5074fc8e3.png
Additions of bar height over the actual trend line showing the deaths backlog clearly stretching back to early 2021.


If you are subscribing one of the latest SS newsletters refers to an immunological paper arguing that the ability of our immune systems to fight future infections is being significantly reduced following all the primary and booster covid shots. SS says she is not qualified to follow their argument and certainly nor am I. But useful to be aware of the criticism, however valid it turns out to be.

Free subscription: https://supersally.substack.com/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin,
Again thank you for your very helpful daily updates. Let us hope that the great loss of face the PRC has does not mean that we have to endure a significant surge in Covid numbers.
Will BBM have the courage to introduce entry restrictions for all Chinese visitors?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The US bringing in restrictions from Jan 5.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/28/p...ravelers-china

Aside from that BBM is going on a state visit to China Jan 3. When he recently visited Belgium he caught a bad cold. Is he going to mask up, restrict close contact? Going to be interesting to see.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A good review of the situation in China from Dr John. A sub lineage of BA.5 seems to be dominant there and causing the wave of infections. Interestingly the Italians seem to be leading the way on testing arrivals there from China and they will soon have genomic data. He doesn't think we need to worry too much about it if the variant there is mainly an Omicron BA.5 type. He looks at the highly inaccurate Chinese cases and deaths data and puts them into proportion for a country of 1.4bn.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...190f1829a6.png
It's not at all clear that travel restrictions do much good, See article below. Our IATF is putting forward proposals to the President on that soon. But you can be sure they will be mild and won't come into effect quickly as BBM is off on a state visit to China on Jan 3. Political considerations probably involved too in the US decision.

A good review by the BBC on the effectiveness of travel restrictions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/59461861

Unable to keep quiet permanently on his usual You tube platform Dr John has published a video on another much smaller one calling for the cessation in the UK of the covid vaccination program. Citing a change in the balance of risk. Especially mRNA vaccines. Which are of course the main type used there. He also talks about the danger of not using aspiration. Not all experts agree about that. If you have watched him over the first 1 or 2 years of the pandemic you will know he was a great supporter of covid vaccination.

The link to this short Dr John statement comes from the latest SS newsletter.
https://supersally.substack.com/

https://jamescintolo.substack.com/p/...gn=429125#play

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The UK has now joined the growing list of countries requiring pre travel covid test from main land China.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The latest Zoe estimate was 3. 3M symptomatic people in the UK and so you would think not much scope for more of this China sublineage to take hold from travellers. Even if more transmissible.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly Report

Not surprisingly, as it was a holiday week, new cases fell by as much as 37%.
Compared to a 24% fall the previous week.
With the holidays over next week's data should be more reliable.

I have moved to using the DOH's cumulative totals. This week I can only give a comparable figure for the last week's national number. For the national calculation, with one daily adjusted number still to come for Dec 31, the difference between the methods was just 37 cases.

For regions:

NCR down 40%...all my 6 largest cities with large falls
CL down 38%
4A down 29%

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR: cumulative cases were obviously greatly adjusted down... by 229!
Ilocos, Cagayan and Bicol all with big falls.

In the Visayas the WV region was down by 40%, CV by 46%.

In Mindanao new case numbers last week were very low:
The largest figure there was for the Davao region with 96 new cases.
Davao City's new cases were adjusted down to show a reduction of 15.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2aef82334d.png
Latest Dr John video. Only now has Serious Adverse Events data from these vaccines in their Phase 3 trials (randomized, placebo controlled) been properly investigated. For both vaccines combined occurred for 1 in 800 people. Dr John says that other new vaccines were withdrawn well before that level of SAEs.

With the higher ability of recent Omicron variants to spread there has been some return of interest in face masks.
Dr Susan Oliver gives a very useful and clear explanation on masking, using the available research, in her latest video.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ba418debcf.png
Note: Dr Oliver says the 56% figure for cloth mask has low confidence.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

DOH Weekly Report

Cases down by 39% (-25%).
Deaths 164 (172)....45 in Dec, 4 in Nov.
The rest going back to August 2020.
My review of recent DOH Weekly Reports on deaths in December show they are, at present, well over 100.

Hospital Admissions

New 3 (3)
Admitted 433 (516)
ICU beds 16.2% (19.1%)
Non ICU 16.9% (17.6%)

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c77c658a01.png

Dr Susan Oliver again not at all impressed with Dr John's recent video.
She says the paper was not peer reviewed and has major flaws, which she pointed out in a video as far back as June entitled "Antivaxxers fooled by P - Hacking".

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3dba1f9509.png
Dr Oliver gives a very good explanation of what P-Hacking is but to be brief it is selectively picking data which gives a desired level of statistical significance. The data here are Serious Adverse Events of "special interest". She also points out a big mistake in the way comparative conclusions of the study were presented.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Philippine cases actually trending downwards this week from nearly 500 on Sunday to only 174 yesterday. But Monday was another holiday. So cases will start to increase soon.. Latest testing has recovered somewhat to 8k.

The country not appearing today in the latest SE and E Asian Worldometers top 10 new cases table:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e1e6e1bdbe.png
Japan with the fastest increasing cases and deaths.
SK also with cases and deaths increasing steadily.
Taiwan cases still increasing, but deaths trending down.
Hong Kong with steadily increasing cases and deaths. Its death rate per M from covid so far in the pandemic very high at 1,550 per M. Philippines 581, but probably double.
Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia all with stable, low cases and deaths.

The China numbers can be ignored..But one of the better things that Dr John Campbell is doing now is tell us what some of his anonymous Chinese contacts are saying..

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...af7af5e105.png
He also says that the reason the Chinese authorities shifted from the Zero Covid policy was that positive people were bribing to get a negative result so they could continue working. Though that seems to me only to have been one reason, not the main one.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1001ed9dee.png
Dr John looks at a recent non peer reviewed study from the US of 50,000 employees.
If replicated with similar results by more eminent researchers the many critics of bivalent covid vaccines will be saying "Wet told you so"!

Bivalent vaccines were developed to include protection against Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants. In the US they were the main variants a few months ago. But the latest CDC estimate of US Omicron variants is that XBB1.5 is now well on its way to dominance there at about 40%. But it's a sub-lineage of BA.2.

More on XBB.1.5 from the Inquirer:
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/171247...re-efficiently

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Japanese researchers saying that in 4 cases of unexplained death after covid vaccination they suggest their immune systems have been dysregulated as genes were up and down regulated.

The best definition of cytokine I have found is "small proteins allowing cells to talk to each other".. Cruicial for the immune system..A storm can occur when too many pathogens enter the body but here we have..

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...10135aeafc.png
Whether this is significant or not I have no idea. But if you look at search results on this you will see results from the last two years saying that there was no evidence that this could happen.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...895646eafb.png
Dr John presents the result of a FOI request by a person who wishes to remain anonymous. Marked increases in cases of heart inflammation in the catchment area of a Swindon hospital. There are those who link heart inflammation with covid vaccination and will jump at this but credit to Dr John for being cautious. UK vaccinations started in December 2020 but didn't really get going until January 2021.So, as he says, that cannot explain the rise in 2020. Further rises in 2021 and 2022 may be linked but then the alpha and delta strains took hold so covid could be the cause (see Healthline result below).
He then goes on to making UK extrapolations, which seems to me to be inadvisable as the Swindon data is all that we have at present.

Here is something from Healthline with a good summary of present knowledge:

https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-but-very-rare

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...87e296811d.png
Campell's Cleveland, Ohio video on You tube yesterday was taken down. The video can be viewed on Rumble.
https://rumble.com/v23x33u-more-vacc...nfections.html

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly Report

A comparison of cumulative total new cases nationally shows they fell by 40% from the week before.
With two exceptions new cases in the regions fell by 28 to 60 percent last week over the previous week.

Note: If there are widespread large adjustments to past numbers my results could become misleading.These seem to have occurred only in Davao and possibly Cagayan regions recently so I can be confident of the majority of results here.

NCR cases fell by 51%. In its 6 largest cities they fell by between 38 and 65%

CL cases were down by 29%...Bulacan's by 40%.
4A by 46%...Cavite by 49%, Laguna 52%, Rizal 39%.

CAR fell by 70% Baguio City down 16%
Cagayan was up 7%
Bicol fell by 60%

In the Visayas WV new cases fell by 28%, CV's by 46%.
Cebu City cases down 71%.
Mindanao new cases all fell, except for the Davao region where they increased by 58%. This result is strange being not comparable with data from other Mindanao regions, which are low and show further reductions. This could well be due to downward adjustments in past data. Davao City new cases were adjusted downwards by 15 the week before.

The data seemingly supporting the Presidents reported reluctance to accede to requests from the DOH and others to extend the State of Calamity. Which was previously only extended to Dec 31. As cases are low here those wanting him to extend primarily use the Covid increases in China as a reason. As they see that for political reasons, of course, BBM hasn't asked for special restrictions on arrivals from China. Different political reasons have been suggested played a part in the decisions of some other countries to increase their China arrival requirements. Some here even going further and asking for the previous mask mandate to be brought back.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/171325...ons-on-arrival

Although case numbers are falling significantly it still needs a week or two's more data to confirm this. Given the recent holidays and other recent events.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...588adccae7.png
The FOI Swindon heart inflammation data was completely wrong due to someone at the hospital wrongly using a spreadsheet and obviously not doing an ocular check on the result to see if it was credible. Dr John now alludes to a peer reviewed article which suggests these results, showing no significant changes 2019-22, should be questioned for possibly being much too low.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A couple of interesting charts from the latest Dr John video. Which leads on his well worn topic of Excess Deaths.But there is as yet no interest at government level here on that.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f1cc2581ab.png
Latest US CDC Omicron variant chart. The UK data takes longer to be published. BA.5 exiting the picture. BQ.1.1 and the recombinant XBB 1.5 look to take over. Both more transmissible. More people incoming and moving around the country now so likely we will also see more infections from these here in a while.

Getting a 1st or 2nd booster?

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cd2815bb06.png
ONS data showing how poorly in terms of avoiding infection the boosters perform after 3 months. Avoiding serious illness and death is another matter though....

The latest research I could find was on US Veterans who had had two primary vaccinations and a booster. With good results for serious illness and deaths:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36156706/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

DOH Weekly Report

Cases for the w/e January 9: 3,127 (3458). A fall of 9% (-39%)
I find this puzzling as for my calendar w/e January 7 I had only 2084 cases...a 40% reduction over my previous week. I have moved to using DOH cumulative data to calculate the week's cases to save time and effort every morning. For 2 previous weeks the two methods gave only slightly different results.
Just looked at recent DOH reports on Worldometers. For the DOH week in question the total is 2,127 cases. But there is no report for January 3, the first day of their week. Why? Was it the suspiciously convenient 1,000 to make the total 3,127. If so where did that 1,000 come from?
Obviously I have to return to monitoring their daily reports.

Deaths 79 (164)
7 from January, 11 from December. The rest back to August 2020.

Hospital data

New admissions 7 (3)
Admitted 507 (433)
ICU 18.1% (16.2%)
Non ICU 21.6% (17.6%)

A significant increase in hospital covid utilization over the week.

Dr Susan Oliver again gives DrJohn a telling off over the Swindon data. Admonishes him for not questioning the data straight away and for not taking down the original video (which has by today had more than double the views of the correction video}. As at the end of Dr John's second Swindon video he questions whether the data should be a lot higher and that needs the urgent attention of the authorities Dr Oliver looks at research on this:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5aee05c6a0.png
A large study in the 4 Nordic countries giving heart inflammation post covid vaccination at 1.6 cases per 100,000. Compared to 3 per 100,000 after a positive test, but this is lower if previously vaccinated.

Philippine fertility

You may recall it was predicted by some that due to the lockdown in 2019 the birth rate would increase. That did not happen. Implications for education, health,the labour force etc. But family planning has been promoted here over the last few years. The other major relevant intervention has been mass covid vaccination.Taking into account the 40 week lag involved some commentators are suggesting vaccination is at least partly responsible. At present there is a concerning further fall for last year, but not all data is in.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...39c35b09c5.png
Birth rates falling over the Pandemic years. Data for 2022 incomplete.

For more on this see the latest SS newsletter: 9th January.."Philippine updates..".

https://supersally.substack.com/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Latest OCTA positivity report.
For Luzon only.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a1f3960e70.png
Nationwide down to 5.5% on Sunday.

Patchy results. Should be viewed in the context of much lower testing over the last few months:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3982f80393.png
Pediatric deaths

An SS newsletter on Jan 9 concerned that a peak in DOH data of pediatric deaths in the third quarter of 2022 occurred at the same time as vaccines for this age group rolled out.

Another newsletter today looks at a bill setting up a Philippines CDC is now going through the house.It gives increased powers to the DOH.

https://supersally.substack.com/