Re: NCR llockdown
 

A much lower 1,735 cases yesterday stemming from low testing on Sunday. Latest Monday testing up to 18.7k.
Active 31,542, down 2,232

Location detail

NCR 528 and a much lower 30% of all cases. From its 6 largest cities 326.....QC 124, Manila 85.

CL down by 45 to 221. 4A down by 259 to 268.
Bulacan 73, Bataan 20, Pampanga 46.
Cavite 98, Laguna 54, Rizal 62, Batangas 40.

These 3 regions down to 59% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up to 85.
Ilocos up to 100.
Cagayan 70
Bicol well down to 6!

Visayas regions down 180 to 198 cases.
Cebu City down to 27.

Mindanao cases down 60 to 259.
Davao City 56.

DOH Weekly Report
Not yet up on their site. Details from GMA.

Cases down 15% (+3%)
Deaths 321 (229)
Aug 109, July 90, June 20
A further 85 earlier in 2022.
Then 17 back to Jan 2021.

Severe and Critical cases:

Admitted 811 (822). New 101 (101)
ICU 27% (28%)
Non ICU 30% (31%)

Severe and Critical patients 9.7% of those admitted. The highest since June 20-26 when it was 10.7%.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/23/...increasing-doh

Conflicting instructions and guidance on whether students have to be vaccinated for face to face classes:

https://mb.com.ph/2022/08/22/pao-urg...-site-classes/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases up to 3,580. Latest testing number for the 23rd up to 21.8k.
Active 30,240, down 1,302. A high 4.8k of recoveries.

Location detail

The NCR total at 1,212, the highest since the start of last week when it was 1,290. A 34% share of all cases. Cases from its 6 largest cities 753 with QC 281, Manila 158, Paranaque 103, Taguig 87.

CL up to 372, 4A to 595.
Bulacan 113, Bataan 39, Pampanga 48.
Cavite 108, Laguna 139, Rizal 130 , Batangas 93 cases.

These 3 regions up a little to 61% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR 118
Ilocos 116
Cagayan 116
Bicol 65

Visayas regions the highest so far this week to 456.
WV to 221, CV to 152.
Cebu City 52, IloIlo City 42.

The same for MIndanao regions, up to 527.
NM more than doubled to 135.
Davao City highest for a week at 106. Zanboanga City up to 29.

The latest DOH cases chart:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...88147cbaab.png

On Worldometers

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b6f76c0637.png
The Philippines

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f034ea4bd0.png
Indonesia

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bec7a94b0c.png
Malaysia

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f69030501d.png
Thailand level.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...00d2fd07ac.png
Vietnam level at a low level.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...45af589229.png
Taiwan the exception with higher cases and a recent upturn.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/healt...k-mandate-most

Singapore eases mask wearing as cases also continue to fall.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 450 fewer cases nationally. Seems likely that storm Florita had some effect on this fall and will also that some areas will have fewer cases announced tomorrow, Testing did fall with the latest number down to 21.2k.
Active 31,037, up 797

Location detail

The NCR with a much lower 887 cases and a share of all cases down to 28%. Its 6 biggest cities with 583 cases...QC 202, Manila 93, Paranaque 91.

Region CL down to 348...Bulacan 105, Batan 26, Pampanga 51.
Region 4A down to 482...Cavite 130, Laguna 135, Rizal 102, Batangas 67.

These 3 regions with a much lower 55% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up to 145
Ilocos stable at 114
Cagayan 127
Bicol up to 84

Visayas numbers down 20 to 436
WV 183, CV 139.
Cebu City 43.

Mindanao down 24 to 503.
Zamboanga up 30 to 90.
Davao City 102, Zamboanga City up to 44.

An optimistic latest Dr John Video.
UK infections as reported to the Zoe App on the way down:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...acecdbc587.png

A similar US picture:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8052d51c58.png

But what about new variants?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9d669c40ba.png
US BA.5 dominance. But notice the growth in the BA.4.6 variant in dark blue. Now estimated at 6.3%. It has an additional spike protein over BA.4. Spike proteins assist virus entrance into host cells.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A lower announcement yesterday at 2,986 cases. Probably a lot to do with lower testing due to storm Florita. The latest test number down again, by 1.5k to 19.7k.
Active 31,615, up 578.

Location detail

The NCR down slightly to 872 cases and it had 29% of the national total. Its 6 largest cities at 537...QC 184, Manila 125, Pasig 73, Taguig 70.

Region CL up only 6 to 354 and likewise 4A, up 1 to 483.
Bulacan 112, Bataan 33, Pampanga 67.
Cavite up 43 to 173, Laguna down to 107, Rizal up to 119, Batangas 58.

These 3 regions with a slightly higher 57% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up 41 to 186. Baguio City up to 99.
Ilocos up 36 to 150
Cagayan 126
Bicol up to 91.

Visayas cases down by 81 to 355. Cebu City 342
Mindanao cases down by 134 to 369. Davao City 94.

The DOH putting out a "worst case" forecast for cases in the next two months, due to school reopening. assuming minimum protocols will not be followed. Although one can observe some reduction in observance I see the level is still high. People are still nearly all wearing masks in the streets. Though some not in fresh markets. Obviously with more mobility there will be some increased transmission, but 3 times?

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in.

A useful newsletter from SS comparing vaccine adverse reactions reporting here and in the US. While some reactions can be coincidences and suspect due to self reporting, it is thought that adverse reaction reports are generally greatly under reported. However, her analysis suggests that The Philippines is under reporting by a very large amount. Adding to the suspicions, aired in her recent newsletters, that the vaccine roll out here may not have been conducted at all well and that there may possibly be wider problems with the vaccines.Though these must await further analysis in other coiuntries before they can be confirmed.

See newsletter "Philippines FDA Pharmacovigilance Report..." August 25.
Subcribe (free) at:
https://supersally.substack.com/

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...302bdd6cfc.png
So about 106k reports here. Given the poor reporting not much can be seen from the table about the effects of the various vaccines. Except perhaps that Pfizer has a lot of non-serious events?
In the US the VAERS system there has reported 1.4M. Making allowances for the relative populations of the two countries, age distributions and the big difference in health care standards it is still clear that The Philippines is greatly under reporting. SS says that this is even moire concerning as research there says the US system itself under reports serious adverse reactions by about 40 times! But she gives no reference for that.

Some examples where figures for the two countries are available:

Hypersensitivity: Philippines 318 cases, US 9,915.
Hospitalizaion Philippines 6.6k, US 173.5k
Deaths Philippines 2,620, US 30,347

No reports at all here for:

Covid 19, although 4,589 people got covid after vaccination and 247 died. Needs information on timing.
Transient high blood pressure. So what about following heart attacks, strokes?

Serious medial conditions:
Thrombosis, Thromocytopenia (low platelets): None here, US 8,891
Inflammation of heart. Here 19 cases. US 51,566
Bell's Palsy Here 30, US 15,853

Diagnoses here:

91 attempted from about 106k.
19 of these so far have linked condition with vaccination.

The latest Dr John video:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5061418789.png
The latest ZOE, mainly BA.5 symptoms, from the UK. Fever down more to 13%. Making the temperature check machines here even more redundant!The ONS report 39% of UK cases were asymptomatic in June. Using PCR tests, not rapid tests, which have become more unreliable. So the BA.5 wave here is likely greatly under reported.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 400 fewer cases announced yesterday at 2,565. Latest testing on Thursday up slightly to 21.1k.
Active 29,807, down 1,808

Location detail

The NCR slightly down to 865.at a higher 34% of all cases. Cases from its 6 biggest cities up slightly to 541 and 63% of its cases. QC 232, Manila 99, Paranaque 66, Pasig 63, Taguig 55.

CL and 4A each fell moderately to 296 and 386 cases.
Bulacan 97, Bataan 26, Pampanga 75.
Cavite 120, Rizal 104, Laguna 76, Batangas 60.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR down to 70
Ilocos to 79
Cagayan up to 135
Bicol 71

Visayas cases down to 289.
WV 138, CV 107
Cebu City 31, IloIlo City 25.

Mindanao cases up slightly to 374.
NM up 25 to 98.
Davao City 84.

Two articles appeared on my phone's Google Discovery lately looking back at an important time in the pandemic when it seemed to be widely accepted that the emission of water droplets from infected people was just about the only way the virus was spread. It was thought by bodies like the WHO and US CDC that further spread could then take place from contact with some of the surfaces they landed on. Resulting in booming sales of alcohol, disinfecting fluids. Despite researchers finding few instances of surface contact transmission. People in the US wiping the cardboard boxes containing their online grocery deliveries. In a Manila subdivision I lived in spraying of incoming car tyres was performed for a while.
Plastic, Polythene and Perspex barriers were employed. Great emphasis on mask wearing, with cloth types thought to provide a good level of protection. Social distancing rules were introduced and thought to be sufficient. While there wasn't much emphasis in those days on air flows and ventilation in crowded indoor spaces to reduce aerosol spread. The main way it is now thought the virus spreads.
This is one of the articles:

https://qz.com/it-took-two-years-for...orn-1849461885

Weekly report later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update

Last week's % change in brackets.

National cases down 15% (14%)

NCR cases down 11% (17%)
At 32% (31%) of national cases.

Its six largest cities in descending % case fall:

Paranaque -20% (-8%)
Taguig -15 (-34)
Caloocan -14 (0)
Manila -12 (-8)
QC -10 (-13)
Pasig -3 (-23)

Central Luzon -22% (-9%)
Bulacan -14% (-2%), Bataan -18% (-10%), Pampanga -20% (-24%)
Calabarzon -26% (-21%)
Cavite -19% (-22%), Laguna -50% (-24%), Rizal -11% (-22%), Batangas -18% (-10%), Quezon -14% (-23%)


These 3 regions with 60% (61%) of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR -7% (-14%). Baguio City +5%
Ilocos -25% (-12%)
Cagayan -28% (-6%)
Bicol -22% (-15%)

The Visayas regions -13% (-19%)
WV -20% (-16%), CV -10% (-22%)
Cebu City -19% (-28%)

Mindanao regions -4% (+10%)
Davao +5% (+11%)
NM +8% (+5%)
Zamboanga -23% (+32%)
Davao City -4%, Zamboanga City -39%, CDO City -16%

Summary:

- A similar moderate fall nationally this week over last week.
- The rate of case fall in the NCR lessened somewhat.
- Both CL and 4A regions increased their rate of case fall, CL the most with big reductins in Bulucan and Laguna..
- Elsewhere in Luzon it was notable that the CAR's rate of fall lessened while in all other regions outside the NCR plus area
case fall rates increased.
- In the Visayas the rate of case fall lessened only a little, mostly due to a lower fall in the CV region.
- In Mindanao cases are beginning to fall overall, especially in the Zamboanga Pen. region and in Zamboanga City.
But a low rate of case growth seen in the NM and Davao provinces

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday cases fell by about 250 from Saturday's to 2,318. Latest testing for Saturday down 3k to 18.1k.
Active: 28,525, down 1,282

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...55f29412eb.png
The latest DOH weekly positivity chart. Latest 14.1% for the w/e Aug 21.

OCTA say for Aug 25 it was 14.3% nationally. For the NCR 13.6%.
Predicting nationally below 5% in a month's time.

Location detail

The NCR down 83 to 782 but maintaining 34% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 489 of those cases...QC 174, Manila 104, Paranaque 65, Pasig 61, Taguig 58.

CL down by about 50 to 249......Bulacan 103, Pampanga 36.
4A up 10 at 396...Cavite 121, Rizal 102, Laguna 82, Batangas 47.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR 72..Baguio City 7
Ilocos 77
Cagayan down 40 to 95.
Bicol down to 46.

These 3 regions up to 62% of all cases.

Visayan cases down to 260....WV 114, CV 86.
Cebu City 24.

Mindanao cases also down to 341. Only the SOCCSK region up, by 24 to 82.
Davao City 55.

The latest Dr John video may be of some relevance to explaining Philippine excess deaths, some of the data on that having been presented here from SS's recent newsletters.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f29127219a.png
John's Hopkins Our World in Data have produced this map with countries reporting excess deaths 2020-21. Those in darker yellow and red are obviously well in excess of covid. Large parts of the world not reporting, including The Philippines. Of course the data from some countries, eg Russia, can be discounted.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...41d32eee45.png
English excess deaths above the purple dotted line, so far this year, with the yellow shading showing the numbers due to covid. So many not. But much less the case there in 2021. As covid killed many older people a few years prematurely in 2021 we would expect excess deaths to be lower in 2022.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...602f372543.png
All ages in England show a similar pattern. This chart for up to 24 years showing a worryingly large number..

Many experts speaking out in concern but so far only the Scottish government having an enquiry about excess deaths there.

Of course the relevance of this here is limited as Philippine excess deaths have been shown to be well over the deaths attributable to covid for 2021 as well. Though preliminary data for January 2022 here showed deaths to be 17% higher than expected in a time of decreasing covid deaths.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 250 more cases announced at 2,5783. Latest testing down substantially to 13.3k on Sunday.
Active 27,497 down 1,028

Location detail

The NCR cities added over 100 more to 891 and 35% of all cases. From its 6 biggest cities 555. QC 208, Manila 139, Paranaque and Pasig each at 71.

CL down by 65 to 184. Bulacan 85.
4A up by 19 to 414. Cavite up 25 to 146, Laguna up 20 to 102, Rizal up 16 to 118.

These 3 regions down to 58% of all cases.

Visayas regions with a few more cases to 271.
Cebu City 43.

Mindanao up about 30 to 370.
Davao region up 45 to 130.
Davao City up 33 to 88.

Latest OCTA positivity report:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9c1e851c0c.png
Falling positivity in many Luzon regions over the week to August 29, including the NCR. But it's still high and suggests many people are not being tested. Whether it is because of mild symptoms or more difficulty in getting tested o a combination of the two is unclear. The result will be a lower looking but longer lasting wave with more people with comorbidities and lacking booster vaccination needing to be hospitalized..

DOH Weekly report

Cases down 19% (15%)
Deaths 316 (321)
Aug 113 with 94 Aug 15-28 and 193 in the rest of 2022.
A few back to 2021 and 2020.

Severe and Critical:

New 110 (101)
Admitted 807 (811)

ICU 25% (27%)
Non ICU 28% (30%)

Mixed hospital data. More new patients but fewer needing covid beds.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A much lower total at 1,672 new cases announced. Weekend testing was very low and Monday testing rose only to 16.3k.
Active 26,168, down 1,329

The NCR down by well over 300 to 563 and 34% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities at 354...QC 108, Manila 88, Paranaque 59.

But CL actually reported 42 more cases Bulacan 90, Pampanga 44.
While 4A had 158 less with a total well down to 256...Cavite 91, Rizal 76.

These 3 regions at a higher 63% of all cases.

CAR 63
Ilocos 81
Cagayan 60
Bicol reported only 7

Visayas regions down about 100 to 173.
Cebu City 17
Mindanao down 127 to 243.
Davao City 82.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/30/...face-mask-rule

Cebu taking to lead on outdoor face mask wearing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday's announced total down by over 100 to 1,558. Latest testing on the 30th up to 18.4k.
Active 24,181, down 1,947.

Location detail

The NCR with 17 more cases over the day before at 580. Its 6 largest cities with 356 and 61% of cases. QC 153, Manila 67.

CL down somewhat to 164 and 4A to 211.
Bulucan 46, Pampanga 30.
Cavite 64, Laguna 59, Rizal 43

The CAR 43
Cagayan 57
Ilocos 54
Bicol 46

Visayan regions up by 27 to 200.
The WV region up 36 to 114.
Cebu City much lower to 8

Mindanao regions down 40 to 203.
Davao 91, SOCCSK 42.
Davao City 60.

The acting DOH Secretary uses the example of Singapore against Cebu trying to lift outdoor mask wearing mandate. It can do it as it has better access to hospital.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...re/ar-AA11k50R

This article looks at mask wearing in some other E and SE Asian countries:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ound-the-world

All countries except Japan where outdoor mask wearing is either not mandatory or rules lightly enforced are doing well in terms of deaths. Japan has an older demographic and less immunity from previous outbreaks. China has a similar policy to here on masks with its zero covid policy. This thread started in March 2020 with a discussion about us following China with a strict lockdown. Interesting that the Palace using statements from the previous President:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/14/...ing-face-masks

If we go back to this Task Force leader's statement from early this year then we will be still wearing them well into next year!

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2...l-end-pandemic

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a first of the month surprise from Central Luzon:

National cases jumped up by over 2k yesterday to 3,767, but 1,273 or about a third of these came from two areas in Central Luzon. Latest testing at the end of August up to 23.2k.
Active 22,259, down 1,922

Location detail

NCR cases up by 436 to 1,016, the highest since the Wednesday of last week, when it was 1,212. An artificially much lower 27% of all cases. From its 6 largest cities 635... QC 199, Manila 136, Taguig 83, Paranaque 78, Caloocan up 56 to 81, Pasig 58 cases.

Central Luzon at the most was up to just over 400 in the past two weeks and so far this week stayed in the 100s and 200s. So a big surprise to see 1,498 new cases announced yesterday. No investigation by the ABS-CBN or GMA journalists, as usual.
Upon further investigation into its constituent areas using the DOH tracker site:

Olongapo City 763
Zambales 510

Cases which seem to have fallen down the back of the filing cabinet!

DOH charts try to place infections at their tome of infection.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9e238f1ed9.png
Olongapo City cases.
From this chart it seems likely most of these infections went back 6 months.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5d7bdc219b.png
Zambales cases.
Again it looks like many extra infections have been placed 6 months back. Surely the great majority have now recovered?

For CLs other areas:
Bulacan 75, Bataan 40, Pampanga 19.

Region 4A: up 187 to 398.
Cavite 135, Laguna and Batangas each 80, Rizal 73

These 3 regions an artificially high 77% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR 44
Ilocos up to 76
Cagayan up 44 to 101
Bicol up to 71

Visayas regions up 83 to 283 with WV up 17 to 131.
Cebu City 38.

Mindanao cases up 62 to 265.
NM up to 59, Davao 72.
Davao City 44.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d9229a72dc.png
Dr John presents a Portugal study on natural immunity.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday back to a much more normal 2,452 cases. Discounting the 1k plus old cases from Central Luzon yesterday they were down by a few hundred..Latest testing down by about 4k to 19.3k. Probably lower partly due to the weather in N and Central Luzon.
Active 23,703, up 1,444

Location detail

The NCR down to 712 and at 29% of all cases. Its top 6 cities with 430 cases...QC 165, Manila 86, Pasig 64.

CL likely down somewhat to 264 if we allow for the 1k plus old cases announced yesterday.
They definitely were old cases too.....Olongapo City's active cases yesterday 105, Zambales 111.
Bulacan 67, Pampanga 45, Bataan 26.

Region 4A down 50 to 348.
Cavite 112, Rizal 88, Laguna 81, Batangas 44.

These 3 regions at a lower 54% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon:

The CAR up 49 to 93. Baguio City 43
Ilocos 72
Cagayan 80
Bicol 77

Visayas regions up 10 to 293.
WV 126, CV 91.
Cebu City 29

Mindanao regions up 126 to 391.
Davao more than doubled to 151.
SOCCSK nearly doubled to 100.
Caraga 60
BARMM 43
Davao City up to 93. Zanboanga City up to 38.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 360 more cases to make the total 2,812. Latest testing up slightly to 19.9k.
Active cases 23,571, down 132

Location detail

The NCR up 161 to 873 and 31% of national cases. From its top 6 cities 535 cases...QC 159, Manila 102, Taguig 78, Caloocan an unusually high 77, although it also reported 81 two days ago, Paranaquie 61, Pasig 58.

CL was up slightly to 272.
Bulacan 80, Pampanga 34, Bataan 20.

Whereas 4A increased its daily cases by 141 to 489.
Cavite to its highest this week at 194, Rizal 112, Batangas 82, Laguna 77

These 3 regions at 58% of all cases.

The CAR 76 Baguio City 45.
Ilocos up 39 to 111
Cagayan up to 97
Bicol 35

Visayas up slightly to 304.
WV 124, CV up to 102.
Cebu City 39, Bacolod City 37.

Mindanao up 146 to 537.
NM up 60 to 136.
Davao up 35 to 186
Davao City up to 113, highest this week.
CDO City 27, GenSan 15, Iligan City 15, Zamboanga City 31
These 5 large cities with less than 20% of all Mindanao cases.

The recent Dr John video on the covid vaccine and pregnant women getting a convincing video rebuttle from Dr Susan Oliver on You tube:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...50f8c01642.png

But I think he is best when he sticks to the data.
In his latest video he is optimistic about UK covid infections but not about UK excess deaths.

The BBC's Newsnight programme also looked at UK Excess deaths sowing a version of the same ONS chart that Dr vJohn presented:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...610d70100a.jpg
Non covid UK excess deaths the green areas above the yellow line and high in early 2020 and at a lower level mid to end 2021 and mid to late this year.

The Newsnight discussion was about pressures on the NHS and not on vaccination as a possible cause of some of these deaths. The UK vaccination roll out started in December 2020 whereas the largest peak in excess deaths occurred earlier that year. Possibly due to lockdown measures which started in March 2020. Also the chart does not seem to show any coincidence between vaccination and the lower level of excess deaths in 2021 and 2022. This lack of timing coincidence has not been seen in Philippine data,reviewed here recently.

However we do have some analysis on UK data recently presented in an SS newsletter "Questioning Population Vital Statistics" on Sept 3. Subscription is free from:

https://supersally.substack.com/

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b7f0e16a60.png
A Dr Paul Alexander looks at UK vaccine take up and estimates. Out of 63.4M only 44.5M had received at least one dose. So 18.9M not vaccinated at all. Nearly 30% and much higher than official figures. Johns Hopkins says no doses 15% now.

Then he looks at deaths following covid vaccination Dr John has repeatedly complained about this data not being published by the ONS. But Dr Alexander reports he did find this data
An example of the raw data here for the 60-69 age group England. Published July 6 for 2021 and up to May 2022.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f8344e6880.png

Relating all of this raw deaths data to vaccine uptake:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9aa83869ca.png
Sadly in this period deaths were 606,537 from covid. Using Dr Alexander's figures that 44.5M had at least one dose that gives 1 in 73 people who had had a covid vaccination had died by May 2022.

He looks at this through time, by extent of vaccination, and by age group:

For example:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...051f702cf6.png
The unvaccinated deaths never more than 2 dose. for the 18-39s.

A similar pattern for all other age groups eg 70-79s:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c3b2b9303f.png
For the 70-79 age group an even greater difference can be seen n favour of the unvaccinated.

The same author looks at US data:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0fa38deb16.png
US deaths per M through time in the covid pandemic. From Our World in Data.

Compare with US daily % vaccination:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...964886b9e6.png
A death peak following a vaccination peak.
But better to compare vaccinations with the daily % rise in US deaths:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...109dfff6da.png
A 6 month delay after the vaccination peak. Alexander and another analyst Kirsch, also giving data and analyis presented in the SS newsletter, argue that these delayed deaths are many more than the obvious spikes seen in the few days post vaccination.
See also Kirsh's review of European data. Overall he sees a 5, not 6, month delay in deaths post vaccination.

Both authors do not downplay the effects of lockdowns but say they are working constantly throughout the pandemic. They see vaccine effects on deaths in the first 2 weeks or so post vaccination then after a 5-6 month lag from the start of vaccination campaigns, whether initial doses or boosters.

Philippine PSA death data for 2022 is very late in coming out , with only some reliable data for January. If Alexander's and Kirsch's analyses are correct the country will record more excess deaths following the latest booster campaign. In addition to the large number already seen in the pandemic. Figures likely to be well under reported, especially those likely due to vaccination. SS said in one of her recent newsletters that doctors have been under pressure not to report such deaths to LGUs and the DOH..

Weekly report later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a similar number of cases announced as the day before... at 2,321. Latest testing number down to 16.6k on Saturday..
Active 24,067, up 496

Location detail

The NCR total down 60 to 813 but a higher 35% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 549 cases.....QC 178, Manila 114, Paranaque 62.

CL down to 198... Bulacan 83.
4A to 369. Cavite 138, Laguna 84, Rizal 75, Batangas 65.

These 3 regions at 60% of all cases.

The CAR 58...Baguio City 15
Ilocos 74
Cagayan 74
Bicol 46

Visayas 323...WV 131, CV 106.
Cebu City 37

Mindanao cases down markedly to 352.
NM down to 69, Davao to 87
Davao City 67

Weekly Report
Last week's % change in brackets.

Discounting an estimated 1,150 old cases from the 2 areas in CL gives an estimated recent 16,000 cases for the week and so a fall of 23% (14%).

NCR down 19% (-11%).
5 of its 6 largest cities showed case falls...Manila 13%, QC 25%, Paranaque, Pasig, and Taguig 22-27%. All falling faster last week.
Caloocan had a 21% increase (-14%), but case numbers low at 287.

CL's adjusted estimated total fell by 25% (-22%)
4A's fell by 26% (-26%)
Cavite by 24% (-23%), Laguna 22% (-50%), Rizal 18% (-11%), Batangas 25% (-18%), Quezon 32% (-14%)

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR fell by 44% Baguio City down by 44% (+5%)
Ilocos 27%
Cagayan 29%
Bicol 26%

Visayan cases fell by 28% (-13%)
Cebu City by 24%

Mindanao cases fell by 13% (-4%)
Davao City by 6% (-4%)

Case increases generally declining although but we don't have recent positivity data. But tests have been falling lately:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b261879c73.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Lower weekend testing meant a much lower 2,202 case total. The latest test number down to 13.2k individuals.
Active 24,493, up 426

Location detail

NCR down to 720 and a third of all cases. The 6 largest cities with 470 cases...QC 162, Manila 98, Caloocan 65. Taguig 58.

CL up 30 to 228. Bulacan 83
4A up 55 to 424. Rizal 141, Cavite 120, Laguna 75.

These 3 regions with 62% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR up to 74
Ilocos up 33 to 107
Cagayan up 29 to 103
Bicol 40

Visayan cases down by over 100 to 215
WV 99, CV 80
Cebu City 25

Mindanao cases down by 74 to 278
Davao region up to 107
Davao City 66

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...oh/ar-AA11nyAX

The OIC of the DOH making a confusing statement a few days ago. Says public mask mandate must be kept until cases stabilize. Then she says cases "are stabilizing".
A decision imminent from BBM..but is it? With faceshields there was no decision last year from the President. Only from some Mayors.

Also the same lady making this unbelievable statement. Deaths post vaccination and caused by it have been recorded in other countries:

https://mb.com.ph/2022/09/02/no-link...m_medium=email

DOH weekly report

Cases 17,145 and down 10% (19%)
But the DOH selling itself short as it included about 1,100 old CL cases in its total.
In a bind because they don't want to admit not reporting these cases and cause doubt on their data collection and reporting. Few people follow what they do and they are not in the mainstream media so the DOH have been getting away with things during the Pandemic, both with cases and especially with deaths.

Deaths 354 (316)
September and August 146. The rest back to July 2021.

Severe and Critical:

Admitted 768 (807)
New admissions 40 (101)

ICU 23.5% (25%)
Non ICU 29.3% (28%)

Improvement seen in public hospitals.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a big fall in cases following very low weekend testing. Cases at 1.326. The latest test level up tp 17.9k.
Active 23,272, down 1,221

Location detail

NCR 498 and up to 38% of all cases. For the biggest cities 326 with QC 112, Manila 68, Caloocan 40.

CL down to 146, 4A to 236.
Bulacan 59, Cavite 85, Rizal 75, Laguna 38.

These 3 regions with two thirds of all cases.

CAR 39, Baguio City 12
Ilocos 56
Cagayan 35
Bicol 11

Visayan regions down to 127.
WV and CV 58 and 55 cases.
Cebu City and IloIlo City each 8.

Mindanao down to 168.
Davao City 43.

First boosters not reaching target:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/06/...-shots-lagging

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday new cases up by 324 to 1,750. Latest testing up by only 2k to 19.8k.
Active 22,899, down 373

Location detail

NCR up to 665 and maintaining 38% of all cases. The six cities with 409, about 62% of NCR cases. QC 147, Manila 67, Taguig 58, Paranaque 57, Pasig 40, Caloocan 40.

CL and 4A both up, but only by about 30 cases.
Bulacan 48, Bataan 8, Pampoanga 19
Cavite 83, Rizal 71, Laguna 62, Batangas 36

These 3 regions down to 63% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon:

CAR 32, Baguio City 23
Ilocos up 47 to 103
Cagayan up 26 to 61
Bicol up 17 to 28

Visayas cases: up 55 to 182.
WV up to 91, CV 50.
Cebu City 18

Mindanao up 57 to 225.
NM 39, Davao 57, SOOCSK 51.
Davao City 34

Some movement on outdoor face masks:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...face-mask-rule

https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...e-mask-policy/

Low booster vaccinations put up as an argument against removing the public outside mask mandate. Despite the poor performance of vaccines to prevent Omicron transmission. Which is low outside anyway.
I repeat linking to this Straits Times article..on Asian mask policies:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ound-the-world
Malaysia, doing the best with about 50%, Thailand about 40% and Indonesia with 21%, about the same as here.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 600 more cases at 2,404. Latest test level up slightly to 20.5k.
Active 24,032, up 1,133

Location detail

NCR up by 180 cases to 945 and a slightly higher 39% of all cases. About the same increase in the cases in its 6 largest cities......QC 190, Manila 112, Paranaque 86, Taguig 79, Pasig 74.

CL up to 190, 4A up by over 130 to 399.
Bulacan 67
Cavite up 73 to 156, Laguna down to 58, Rizal up 32 to 103, Bataangas 54. Quezon 21.

These 3 regions at a slightly higher 64% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR up to 50. Baguio City 25.
Ilocos up 15 to 118.
Cagayan up to 80.
Bicol 29

Visayas up by 50 cases to 232.
WV up 28 to 109
CV up 10 to 60
Cebu City 16.

Mindanao up 115 to 340.
Davao region up 78 to 135.
SOCCSK up 32 to 83.
Davao City up to 40.
Zamboanga City 18
CDO City 9
GenSan 2
Iligan City 0

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...731c8bf975.png
Dr John presenting from World in Data a chart showing that excess non covid deaths are high and rising lately in a number of countries around the world. At least in the UK this is seen in all age groups. Dr John says this is also seen in other countries. Though in a recent newsletter on Australia SS noted that higher excess deaths were not being seen in the lower age groups but mostly in the three upper ones (SS Newsletter Aug 2).
https://supersally.substack.com/
Dr John goes on to speculate on a number of possible causes.
But this recent data is difficult to attribute to vaccination roll out as suggested by SS here and by others elsewhere. We see in the Philippines a pattern of excess deaths rising to peaks following vaccine roll out. Two analysts, reported here in this thread, saying that US and European data showed a death peak within a week or two of vaccination and another after 5-6 months. But the countries in the WiD chart are different from here as they are now well into their 2nd booster roll outs and showing non covid excess deaths much greater than in 2021. Whereas in the Philippines the data shows a large number of non covid excess deaths in 2021. Of course this does not rule out longer term effects of infection and vaccination being implicated.
We await further analysis of this worldwide feature.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday about 90 fewer cases to 2,313. But the latest test report down by nearly 2k to 18.6k. Strange as positivity numbers are still high.
Active 24,300, up 268.

Location detail

NCR down by 180 to 765 and a much lower 33% of all cases. But the number in its 6 largest cities down by less,129, to 455. QC 156, Manila 85, Paranaque 64.

CL down to 172.
Bulacan 63

4A up 103 to 502.
Cavite 149, Laguna up to 77, Rizal with cases more than doubling to 228.

These 3 regions with a lower 62% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR more than doubled to 121. Baguio City more than tripled to 88.
Ilocos up 105 to 223
Cagayan up 26 to 106
Bicol 8

Visayas cases down 81 to 151
WV and CV 61 and 66 cases.
Cebu City 21

Mindanao cases down by about 100 to 246
Davao region stable at 133.
Davao City up to 58.

Looks like common sense will prevail. Though why do these so obvious moves take so long here?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/09/...s-out-soon-doh


The DOH, seemingly losing on public face masks, putting out a dramatic warning about lack of boosters in the NCR:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

But it is well known that vaccination does little to reduce transmission. And that's mainly how the virus spreads.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a surprising increase in NCR cases.

National cases up by over 800 to 3,165. Latest testing at the end of the week up only slightly to 18.9k.
Active 26,074, up 1,774

Location detail

NCR cases up to 1,220, the highest for 3 weeks. Might just be a backlog of old cases again. We have to see its numbers next week to know, Its 6 largest cities up to 770 and 63% of cases. QC 231, Manila and Pasig both doubled to 174 and 102, Paranaque 96, Taguig 88, Caloocan more than doubled to 79. That cases in all these cities rose suggests this is no backlog.

CL increased by 146 to 318.
Bulacan up to 116.
4A down by about 50 to 454.
Cavite 153, Rizal 126, Laguna 90, Batangas 66, Quezon 12.

These 3 regions at 63% of all all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR 85...Baguio City 29
Ilocos very low at 17
Cagayan down to 72
Bicol 8

Visayas cases more than doubled to 363.
WV more than doubled to 128
CV up to 95
Its big cities low. Cebu City 26, IloIlo City 17, Bacolod 22.

Mindanao up by about 80 to 320.
Zamboanga up to 66, NM to 77, SOCCSK to 100.
Again the main cities very low: Davao 8, CDO 15, GenSan 2, Zamboanga 26.

Two more areas moving on outdoor masks in advance of promised Presidential ruling:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/10/...usts-residents

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...e/ar-AA11GjOZ?


Weekly report later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update

National cases down 3% (-23%)
Remembering that last week's fall was estimated to allow for some old CL cases being included misleadingly by the DOH.
Last week's DOH figure included them and gave only a 10% fall.

For the NCR there was a small increase of 4% (-19%)
For its biggest cities:

Taguig +36%
Caloocan +20
Paranaque +8

Manila and QC: stable

Pasig -4%

A reversal to either no change or an increase for 5 of the cities. Only Caloocan continued from last week with another similar rise to its 21% increase last week.
Up to 343 cases for the week.

Region CL -18% (-25%)...Bulacan -5% (-26%)
Region 4A +6% (-24%)......Cavite +3% (-24%), Laguna -7% (-22%), Rizal +31% (-18%), Batangas -5% (-25%), Quezon -32% (-25%)

Elsewhere in Luzon:

The CAR -8% (-44%)
Ilocos +26% (-27%)
Cagayan -19% (-29%)
Bicol -19% (-26%)

In the Visayas:

A fall of 9% (-28%).
Although WV fell by 16%, (-25%), CV by 12% (-34%)
Moderated by increases in MIMAROPA and EV.
Cebu City -27% (-24%)

Mindanao in contrast showing an increase in the rate of fcase fall:
-30% (-13%)
Davao City -41% (-6%), Zamboanga City -30% (-8%).

So, there is a reversal in recent trends in most of Luzon and in the Visayas.
Importantly also a reversal from last week with increases in a number of NCR cities, including 3 of the biggest 6.
Also a big reduction in the rate of fall overall in the provinces surrounding the NCR. Rizal and Cavite reversing to increases. Laguna and Batangas with much lower rates of decrease. Only Quezon province showing a higher rate of decrease.
For Luzon regions further away from the NCR Ilocos showed a reversal to a case increase, The CAR and Cagayan regions showed significant falls in the rate of case decrease.
Two peripheral Visayas regions, EV and MIMAROPA, showed case increases while its core regions,WV and CV , each had a lower rate of case fall.
But Mindanao regions seem detached from most others with accelerating case fall a present.

It will be interesting to see if these changes will be seen in forthcoming DOH and OCTA reports. Positivity is not being reported lately and test numbers have been falling.

The government have been warning of possible case increases due to relaxation of protocols and the return to school. But neither of these have had much effect yet.
They are also worried about vaccination levels, especially the slow uptake of boosters.

In the light of this here is an open letter to the President, published yesterday in The Inquirer from a group of "concerned citizens....".
From SS newsletter September 10, "Concerned citizens..."

https://supersally.substack.com/

Aiming to convince him not to extend the covid public health emergency here to the end of the year. He has said more than once that he will.
You will recognise some of the graphics from SS newsletters.

It's a bit fuzzy. The best I could do.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fed410fb7e.png

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b48b69d7ad.png
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...04dad7ee99.png
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1e7c5e16aa.png
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b5b835bf30.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Cases yesterday down by 935 at 2,230. Latest testing down about 2k to 16.8k.
Active 25,684, down 390

Location detail

NCR cases down by only 64 to 1,056. Which was a much higher than lately 47% of all cases. Cases in its 6 largest cities at 687 and a higher 65% of its cases. QC 234, Manila 180, Pasig 91, Paranaque 66, Taguig 61 and Caloocan 55.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6ed14f4fc2.png
Latest OCTA NCR report.

Region CL down at 161...Bulacan 72, Bataan 9, Pampanga 22.
Region 4A down slightly to 419...Cavite up a little to 157, Laguna down to 62, Rizal down a little to 123, Batangas likewise to 62.

These 3 regions up to 73% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR 26
Ilocos 43
Cagayan 34
Bicol well up to 60.

The Visayas down to 180...WV 95, CV 39.
Cebu City 15

Mindanao cases down to 239.
Davao region 72, Davao City 28.
SOCCSK region 75.

The DOH lady still pushing against removal of outdoor mask wearing:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ask-use/story/

Maybe seeing the NCR uptick and thinking this may sway the President. Of course the uptick has occurred while the current mask mandate is in place! This is a good test of BBM's decision making. He has said he will remove the outdoor mandate.

Davao City wants to make the decision after they see what happens elsewhere!

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/11/...until-december

Some people in Congress saying there isn't enough local decision making here and we need more devolution. Well, there certainly is if you are run by people from certain political dynasties.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Lower weekend testing resulting in about 200 fewer cases to 2,038. Sunday testing dropped by nearly 4k to 13.0k.
Active 25,262, down 422

Location detail

NCR down by nearly 250 to 810 cases and a much lower 40% of all cases. The 6 biggest cities down by less..186. QC 151, Manila 109, Pasig 66, Taguig 64, Caloocan 59, Paranaque 52.

CL up by 34 to 195...Bulacan 80, Bataan 7, Pampanga 40
4A down about 80 to 341...Cavite 115, Rizal still high at 105, Laguna 59, Batangas 42.

These 3 regions with a lower 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

CAR 47...Baguio City 23.
Ilocos up 82 to 125. Catching up after the Marcos holiday there!
Cagayan 61
Bicol down 41 to 19

Visayas down slightly to 174 cases.
WV stable at 93
CV up 20 to 59
Cebu City 14
Bacolod, IloIlo, Tacloban cities all in low double figures.

Mindanao up slightly to 253 cases.
Davao region up 35 to 107 but Davao City 16.
CDO, GenSan, Iligan, Zamboanga Cities all in single figures.

The President removes the outdoor mask mandate by Executive Order:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ettings/story/

Will be strange at first as you get used to it. Will try it outside this morning.
Notice the reference again to the country's "Wall of Immunity". I wonder if they really believe that? There must be advice on the low protection against infection vaccination gives and that it wanes fairly quickly.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Does a PUV count as inside or outside?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Think mask mandate kept for all public transport.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes but what about your own car etc.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well it was confirmed by the PNP in 2021 that it was an offence to not be masked and have passengers, family or not. But you don't hear about it now. Checkpoints for covid are no longer operating. Nothing about it announced today so its still on the books, just not enforced. Or maybe only enforced if the police want to get a driver for something.

Btw very few maskless outside in the local street shopping area this,morning.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Do you remember those face shields that gradually faded away? Probably a similar gradual disappearance of face masks in open areas.
The DOH really has to get a grip on booster jabs. First and second booster numbers very poor uptake. I had my second booster four months ago!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday nearly 500 fewer cases at 1,574. Latest testing on Monday up to 18.8k.
Active 24,502, down 760

Location detail

NCR down 145 to 665 cases. A slightly higher 42% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities with 431 and a higher 65% of its case total.
QC 158, Manila 103, Pasig 50, Taguig 43, Caloocan 40, Paranaque 37

CL down 37 to 158...Bulacan stable at 79, Bataan 9, Pampanga 29.
4A down 115 to 226...Cavite 88, Rizal down 44 to 61, Laguna 36, Batangas 32

These 3 regions with a slightly higher 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

CAR up 3 to 50...Baguio City 18
Ilocos down 70 to 55
Cagayan 28
Bicol 20

Visayas regions down 34 to 140...WV 70, CV 36
Cebu City again 14.

Mindanao regions down 43 to 210
Davao region down 45 to 62, SOCCSK stable with 46 cases.
Davao City 17.
Its other main cities all with single figures.

Philippine Omicron variants:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/13/...tions-detected

Seems BA.5 dominant.

As you can read in that ABS-CBN article at the end they give only a few details from the weekly DOH report. Which was not covered at all by GMA. Not on the DOH site yet either.

All we have is cases down 10% (-10%)
A higher figure than my 3% as the DOH included over 1k old cases the week before.
Deaths 300 (354)
The most important hospital data not out.

Latest neighbouring Asian countries case data from Worldometers.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3d6b40b5f9.png

Singapore not having an easy time:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ef273fab58.png
Cases fell but lately stabilizing.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b4db441fbe.png
Deaths fell then a recent uptick. Spikes due to deaths not being announced daily.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Catch up report as Wi Fi unfortunately off so have to use data and phone.
Misssed nearly all detailed data for the 14th. Though only a fairly low case count for that day.

For Sep 14

Cases announced 1,709
NCR 655, 38% of all cases.

For Sep 15
Cases announced 2.141
Tests.. individuals estimated as DOH only give sample number on the phone... approx 21.4k
Active 24,843, down 341 from Sep 13

Location detail

NCR 1,002, up 347 from 14th. A much higher share of 47% of national cases. In its 6 largest cities 624 cases, 62%. of NCR cases. QC 210, Manila 158, Pasig and Taguig each 74., Paranaque 61, Caloocan 47.

CL 195, equal high so far this week.
Bulacan 76. Bataan 5, Pampanga 26
4A 313..... Cavite 102, Rizal 97, Laguna 67, Batangas 35.

These 3 regions at 71% of national cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR 35 Baguio City 17
Ilocos 42
Cagayan 38
Bicol 15

Visayas cases 181, highest so far this week by 1.
WV 78, CV 53 cases.
Cebu City 20

Mindanao cases at iits highest this so far week at 306.
Noticesbly the Davao Region up to 129.
But Davao City had only 30.
Its other main cities in small double figures.

The late DOH weekly hospital data finally turned up
A little encouraging.

Serious and Critical
cases.

New cases 12 (40)
Admitted 727 (768)
ICUl beds 23.9% (23.5%)
Non ICU 28.2% (29.3%)

Two of the latest Dr John Videos worth a quick look.
One a couple of days ago on US CDC data on patients in hospital there who have been boostered once or twice being treated for covid. Over 40%.
The latest video a Lancet report on SARS 2 viral origins. The authord couldn't discount the lab leak theory.

Mask wearing

Going out and about where I live have only seen about 20% mask less on the streets.. Some may still not know about EO No 3. But even if masks do make a big difference to infection rates if worn outside it doesn't seem to me it will be a significant contributor over the next few weeks as most people, for various reasons, are keeping them on in public.
Some may have listened to the advice of one doctor to keep them on to guard against catching other infectious diseases. So maybe mask wearing in public will become almost uniquely permanent here fin the Philippines for many?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday up to 2,619 new cases. Latest test number for 15th down a little to about 20.8k.
Active 26,363, up 1,520.
New recoveries 1.1k, lowest last 2 weeks

Location detail

NCR 1,251 and 48% of all cases. Of those 789 in the top 6 of its cities.. QC 268 its highest so far this month. Manila 198. the same, Taguig 111, the same Caloocan 81, the same, Pasig 71, Paranaque 60.

So not surprising the latest OCTA NCR report says:

Weekly Positivity up from 12. 7 to 14.5%.
R value up from 1.03 to 1.14
ICU use up from 24 to 33%

The DOH now reclassify the NCR as "Medium Risk".

CL up to 267...Bulacan 135.
highest this month. Bataan 15, Pampanga 81.
4A up to 388...Rizal leading with 139. Cavite 125, Laguna 81, Batangas 30.

These 3 regions up to 73% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 46...Baguio City 21
Ilocos 66
Cagayan 44
Bicol up to 50

The Visayas regions up to 198.
WV 87, CV 58
Cebu City 21
Other main cities with low two digit numbers.

In Mindanao 299 cases.
Davao region 96, SOCCSK up to 86.
Davao City 23. Its other main cities with at most low two digit numbers.





​​​​​​

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday saw a few hundred fewer cases at 2,275 Latest testing down a little to about 19.5k.
​
​​Active 26,271, down 92 cases.

Location detail

NCR down a little to 1.199. A much higher 53% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities with 35 fewer cases
at 754.... .QC again at 289, Manila lower by 21 to 177, Pasig 89, Caloocan 73, Taguig 67, Paranaque 59.

CL down by about 90 to 178...Bulacan 101
4A down 27 to 361...Cavite up slightly to 130, Rizal still high at 114. Laguna 51, Batangas 45.

Elsewhere

CAR 33
Ilocos 53
Cagaysn 36
Bicol 27

In the Visayas regions cases down 75 to 123.
WV 60, CV 43.
Main cities all with very low numbers.

Mindanao cases were also down. But by less. 46, to 253.
The Davao region notable with a rise of 16 to 112.
Davao City with its highest report this week.... 46.
All its other main cities in low double or even single figures.

The latest Dr John video looks at firm US data on Long Covid. A lot worse than UK data showing.
Seems to me likely due to its high number of people not getting or able to get proper treatment there for covid and, most importantly, for its comorbidities. Here getting proper medical attention also a problem for many so I am sure there are also many Long Covid cases here. But seemingly no data collection on it.

Weekly report later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday nearly 100 more cases to 2,367. Latest testing down a little. Can only get samples figure for now. At 17. 5k.
Active 26,401, up 130

Location detail

NCR down 140 to 1,080. Its biggest cities with 646 cases, a lower than usual 60%. QC 221, Manila 135, Taguig 122, Pasig 93.

CL down to 169...Bulacan 78, Pampanga 35.
4A also down... to 382...Cavite 146, Rizal 114, Laguna 60.

These 3 regions up to 69% of all cases.

CAR 32
Ilocos 56
Cagayan 41
Bicol up a lot to 70

Visayas cases down to 218.
Mindanao cases down to 308

All main cities in VisMin with at most low 2 digit totals.

Weekly report

National cases down by 6% (-3%)
NCR cases up 18% (+4%)

Due to a continuing WiFi "maintenance" I lost data for one day last week for locations other than the NCR as a whole.
The day lost had the lowest total for the week.

Anyway, making allowance:

CL with a 19% fall over 6 days (-18)
4A a 23% fall over 6 days (+6)

The Visayas region with a 39% 6 day fall (-9)
Mindanao a 9% fall (-30)
Both on 6 days data.

So we can say that the NCR is certainly seeing a sustained rise in cases.
Making allowance for missing data it seems that CL is continuing to have fewer cases but at a lower rate. 4A slightly different in moving to falling cases.
The Visayas region has an increasing rate of case fall but in Mindanao the rate of case fall has lessened.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Getting on for 800 more cases announced yesterday at 3,119. Unusual for a Monday. And the latest test number is over 4k down to 13.2k samples.
Active 27,686, up 1,285

Location detail

NCR up nearly 300 to 1,374. and 44% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities with a higher 64% of them. QC up 93 to 314, Manila to 170, Pasig 124, Taguig down a litlle to 114, Paranaque up to 88, Caloocan 72.

CL nearly doubled to 320..Bulacan 121 cases.
4A added nearly 200 to 567...Cavite up to 203, Rizal nearly 50 to 161, Laguna 95, Batangas 87.

These 3 regions with a higher 73% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 35
Ilocos 57
Cagayan 28
Bicol 76

In the Visayas total cases down 10 to 208.
WV 96, CV 89
Main cities at most low 2 digits.

For Mindanao regions a rise of 82 to 390 cases.
Davao region up to 146., SOCCSK up by 49 to 115.
Main cities at most low 2 digits also.

Looks like the second Omicron case rise is continuing in the NCR. Latest Positivity there up to 15.6%.
Some sign of it around the adjacent provinces, but not yet further away in Luzon. Visayan areas seem to be still seeing first wave cases falling rapidly while in Mindanao these are also falling, but less lately.
So at present the NCR and its adjacent provinces somewhat disconnected from the rest of the country in terms of covid infection spread.

Dr John taking another look at Excess Deaths around Europe in his latest video. Also a worldwide feature. All age groups generally. Due to being warned by You tube he has to dance around what role, if any, vaccination has iin explaining these. But a lack of relevant and reliable data means analysts must rely on correlation techniques to look at this possible cause. Statistical analysis of this type can make a strong case for causation but general acceptance of its results will be difficult to gain. But I am expecting many Freedom of Information requests, where this is available around the world. So slowly a clearer picture will emerge of vaccination's role in these unexpected deaths.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I guess as long as vaccine deaths are on!y a fraction of the covid deaths the vaccine still wins, Only time will tell.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes G that will be their argument even if the vaccinations are eventually shown to have caused much more death and illness than is admitted to now. Gives them a big problem though when the next pandemic comes along if they have to again rush the development of new vaccines. People will be much more wary of safety claims and could be much more hesitant.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin,

As the acknowledged font of knowledge on all things COVID on this group, do you think we are seeing the drying embers of the pandemic or could it combust again in full fury with another variant?

I would have thought that with vaccinations now the norm and herd immunity I would hope that the end is near. But I have been hoping that in past prior to new variants causing new spikes.

May I wish to take this opportunity to thank you for the sterling work you have put in over the past two years or so, to bring us accurate and informative daily information. Maybe you thought as I did, it will be all over in a few months or so which makes your efforts even more herculean. Thank you.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

It's all about immune escape, there's no such thing as herd immunity in such cases. Covid does seem to be waning in severity so perhaps it with become like the common cold, no more than an annoyance.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

You're right P11, if you look at my first post I said something to the effect that the most it could last was 2 or 3 months!

Thank you for those kind words. It's become a daily habit to collect and comment on the data and I will miss it when we do actually get to an influenza like virus.

Campbell's latest video is about the end or 'endemicity" of the virus. Some experts are agreeing and also top politicians like Biden, advised by their experts, are also calling it. Reasoning from the fact that no new variant has shown up for nearly a year. Then there is the evidence in Campbell's latest video that the later Omicron sub variants are no worse in terms of illness than the earlier ones. So looks like there would need to be some radically different variant with even higher transmissibility coupled with much greater immune escape to recharge the virus. Seems unlikely though not impossible to most of the experts.
I think we should accept the majority is right there.

Anyway, taking a parochial view I think we can say that the Philippines has had quite an easy time of it. Young population, good adherence to protocols. Unfortunately not a good record on de
aths. both covid and non covid

And those in charge very slow to change and adopted an over militaristic approach. The public suffering from in my view, an unnecessarily harsh initial lockdown, plastic face shields, over masking until recently in public and in schools.. which are one of the last in the world to restart face to face
education properly. So I think more damage from measures than directly from the virus.

So technically here it is still a pandemic but a very mild one. In Europe the Pandemic not so mild and ONS UK data is showing much worse illness than influenza. Plans are being made to treat covid as Influenza and tweaking vaccines yearly. but cautiously as its next evolution may negate their work.

Some other countries are having it later and on a much larger scale. So a mixed picture, which is why most experts are leaving a slight possibility open to a new variant able to be generated in those areas in the world.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Nearly half Monday's total.....at 1,600 cases. Latest testi figures for Monday up 6k to 19.3k, though these are samples, individual numbers are not reported on the phone site version I have to use at present. They would probably be 500 to 1k less.
Active 27,257, down 424

Location detail

NCR down by over 600 to 743 and up to 46% of all cases. The largest cities with 467 of them.. QC 172, Manila 109, Caloocan 68, Pasig 50.

Regions CL and 4A both with about half the previous day's cases at 162 and 281.
Bulacan 82, Pampanga 35, Bataan 28.
Rizal 99, Cavite 97, Laguna 52.

These 3 regions with a slightly higher 74% of all cases.

Visayas cases down by 66 to 142.
Bacolod City 27, Cebu City 12

Mindanao cases down by nearly 250 to 147.
The Davao region total down by 100 and SOCCSK's by 85 to 46 and 30. These regions have in the past shown large day to day variations. like this.
Davao City 15.

Restricted to using a phone for now so I cannot put up many other things of interest.

But concerning Omicron sub variants Dr John in his latest video does a thorough review of their prevalence in the UK.. and in the US where both BA 4.6 and BA 2.75 have been making inroads against the dominant BA5. Though the former is at a lower 3% in the UK. But it may not matter as NHS research has shown that illness severity with both BA4 and 5 is roughly the same as with the earlier dominant subvariant BA2.
Another You tube video worth watching is the latest Medcram one on Bivalent boosters. New vaccines targeting equally the original Wuhan strain and later Omicron subvariants.
Though whether these new and expensive vaccines will be useful here seems doubtful as the presenter expert says the original Wuhan strain based vaccine is still giving good protection generally against serious illness and death. Though protection against catching and transmitting is well down. The talk about waning protection is mostly based on fewer antibodies, but he makes the point that our immune system does not only rely on antibodies for protection. Other parts of the system eg B cells and T cells give long term protection. Though in older age groups these do wane as well, so boosters and these more specialised Bivalent boosters are more useful for people in those age groups.
Given the cost and that we here have a relatively low share of people in the upper age groups I don't think we will see these rolled out. Especially also as 3rd boosters have been difficult to get people to have. They certainly don't help you much to not catch the virus and that is wrongly stated by the DOH in their reasons for taking a booster. Also by the time that program is finished with here these new Bivalent boosters may well be out of date anyway





​​​​​​