Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly report

Last week a 60% increase in national cases over the previous week. Less than the 73% increase the previous week over the week before.

The NCR had a 59% increase, compared to a 78% one the week before. But the NCRs 6 largest cities not in line with a 77% increase over the week before.
QC 473, Manila 288, Paranaque 196, Pasig 193, Taguig 149 and Caloocan 61 cases.

The CL region had the same 46% weekly increase as last week.
Region 4A had a higher 69% increase. But last week it was x2.6 over the week before. Cavite numbers increased by 47% but last week its figures more than doubled.
Cavite 252, Rizal 169 cases.

It was the same picture in the Visayas.
WV increased by 55%, CV by 45%. But increases much less than last week.
Bacolod 22, Cebu City 92, IloIlo City 142......a 73% increase.
Tacloban City 1!

Mindanao was an exception. A small increase last week but a 51% one this week. But all of its regions with less than 100 cases for the week.
Davao City with the greatest number of cases at 55.
Iligan City 1 case!

So case increases have slowed dramatically over last week. Too early to say if this means that again the Philippines will have a much milder Omicron variant surge than many other countries.

NCR cities to Alert Level 2?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/25/...risk-for-covid

The DOH talking about 4 cities going to their "moderate risk" level given case increases and some hospital utilization increases.
But so far not saying much about a move to Alert Level 2, with its business capacity and travel restrictions. That's partly because they are probably going to continue the policy of treating the NCR as a whole, not differentiating by city.

Here is the IATFs definition of Alert Levels 1 and 2:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...45787ae9c7.png

Not entirely clear to me for AL2! The first condition seems to me to have left out intensive care Otherwise the same as AL1.
But it seems to me we are now in the second possibility to declare AL2..".....or case counts low but increasing". Let me know if you read it differently!

That it has not been declared is to me a good sign that the IATF will sensibly not slavishly follow these levels. Especially in the NCR where hospital capacity nearby cities which are under pressure can be utilized.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 70 more cases announced yesterday at 848. Latest test number down to 18.5k.
Deaths 11
Active 6,761, up 336

OCTA said positivity June 19-25 was at 4.9%, up from 3.1% the previous week.

Location detail:

The NCR up 44 to 353 cases and 47% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities having 221 cases, only 3 more.
QC 60, Manila 46 cases.

CL up a few at 56. Bulacan 33.
4A down a few at 148. Rizal 51, Cavite 46.
These 3 regions at 71% of all cases.

The Visayas up 40 to 149. IloIlo City 37. Cebu City 21.
On a rising trend.

Mindanao up slightly to 53. Davao City 12.
Also rising but at a much slower rate.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday most results came from Sunday testing, low at 13.5k. Despite that cases went up to 867.
Deaths 51
Active 7,087, up 326

Location detail

NCR up 37 to 434 and half of all cases. Its 6 largest cities 259 cases. QC 103, Manila 55, Paranaque 41.

Region CL at 59, 4A at 158. Both slightly up.
Bulacan 23, Cavite 51, Laguna 44..

Visayas down to 118 cases. IloIlo City 31.
Mindanao also down to 48 cases.
Very low numbers from its main cities.

DOH weekly report

New cases 4,634 (3,051), up 52%.
Deaths 51...only 6 from 2022.
Severe and Critical:
Admissions 591 (554)
New patients 14 (15)
ICU 14.9% (14.6%)

The hospital system not under strain. Just that if the past experience with covid here is a guide a large percentage of patients ill with covid don't get admitted to DOH primary hospitals.

Positivity data from OCTA:
Creeping up.

National at week to June 26: 5.7%
NCR 5.9% on 25th...but on June 26 it was up to 7.5%.

Some provinces nationwide:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7aa24a5a7c.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 576 new cases.Sunday testing. Tests 19.4k on the 27th.
Deaths 13
Active 7,192, up 105

Location detail

NCR down at 282 and a slightly smaller share of all cases at 49%.
Its 6 largest cities 169 cases. QC 47, Manila 39.

CL down 19 to 40, 4A down 62 to 94. Cavite 34, Rizal 26.
These 3 regions at 72% of all cases.

Visayas 19, Mindanao 47.
Davao City again 18 cases.


Latest DR J video:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...acf4bca21d.png
UK by March 2022. Won't be as high here but a review of vaccinations for schoolkids seems necessary.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday an increase of over 200 to 781 cases. Tests Monday up to 23.6k.
Deaths 11
Active 7,202, up 10.

Location detail

NCR 367 and down slightly in its national share to 47%. Its 6 biggest cities 201. QC 78, Manila 46.

CL up 36 to 76.. Bulacan 24.
4A up 32 to 128. Cavite 45, Laguna 32, Rizal 22

Elsewhere in N Luzon the CAR with a notable increase at 32. Baguio City 26.

The Visayas up 24 to 114. IloIlo City at 31. Cebu city 12.
Mindanao down to 39. Continuing its remarkably low figures.

NCR cities:

The five that went to moderate risk now reclassified to low risk by the DOH:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...metrics/story/

As you can read they removed the two week case growth metric. So unless cases increase greatly we should avoid going back up to Alert Level 2 and all its restrictions in the NCR and around. Especially as hospitals can still cope with the increase in less severely ill patients. While the Alert Levels are not linked to the DOH risk classification this shows the authorities are willing to make relaxations to keep the economy growing in the current new covid wave, just starting now.

Cebu City to resume full capacity face to face schooling:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/29/...o-face-classes

In a High School I am familiar with in Upper Cavite pupils in year 11 were all offered 3 months ago to resume school attendance 4 days a week, 5 hours daily. In lieu of the modular arrangements. Take up only about 50%. Rather than fear of catching covid one presumes many households made new domestic arrangements which they were unwilling to change. This would be mandatory.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I expected more cases yesterday but am surprised at the size of the increase of well over 500 to 1,309. Tests were actually down a little to 22.2k on the 29th. So it seems likely that as cases increase there is again some short term backlog being included.
Active 7,871, up 669

Location detail:

The NCR well up to 672 and 52% of all cases. Its six largest cities nearly doubled their total cases with 388. QC 150, Manila 75...Caloocan, recently with low numbers reporting a much higher 27 cases.

Both regions CL and 4A up substantially......to 108 and 231 cases.
Bulacan 35, Cavite 85, Batangas 40, Laguna 47, Rizal 46 cases.

The CAR down a little to 29.

Visayan cases up 41 to 155.
WV 97, CV 40. IloIlo City 43.
But Bacolod only 3, Cebu City 20, Tacloban City 0 cases.

Mindanao cases up 15 to 54. Davao City 14.

NCR Alert Level 1 to mid July...despite rising cases.

https://manilastandard.net/news/3142...-going-up.html

As for most policy areas you cannot get much idea of the thinking of the new President about health:

https://mb.com.ph/2022/07/01/marcos-...d-19-response/

So a lot will depend on who he picks as health Secretary.
The person appointed will certainly be a doctor. In contrast to the UK where very few doctors served as Health Minister..I can only recall David Owen. Doctors here who aspire to such positions have usually headed major institutions and have already become involved in politics at then lower level. They are the ones canvassed. So little chance of an outsider who wants to make big changes. Compare with education where BBM has already appointed the VP. She has already talked about reviews and changes. Qualified as a lawyer but with little experience of education in general.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday just over 60 fewer cases at 1,243 and testing over 1k lower on June 30 to 20.7k.
Inauguration activities may well have reduced testing.
Deaths 10
Active 8,706, an increase of 835

Location detail

The NCR down 80 at 592 and with a lower 48% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 373 cases. QC 141, Manila 78, Taguig 56.

Region CL down 30 at 78, Bulacan 34 cases.
But 4A up 15 to 246. Cavite 87, Laguna 55, Batangas 47, Rizal 44 cases.

These 3 regions with a lower 74% of all cases.

The Visayas up 52 to 207, WV up to 112. CV more than doubled to 84.
Cebu City 27, IloIlo City 42, Bacolod 4, Tacloban 1.....so the increases are not in the main cities.

The Mindanao total down 4 to 50. Davao City 15.

Latest OCTA Positivity figures:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4984bf67d0.png
Large increase for Cavite, the most populous province, over the 4 days.

The DOH explaining why they have dropped the 2 week growth condition in their Alert Level classifications.
It wasn't giving the right answer! For a new administration who don't want to put restrictions on again if they can help it. It probably only needs to come formally into decision making if and when medical facilities start to come under pressure from this latest Omicron variant wave.
This shows the folly of adopting formally over complicated criteria for complex situations... like nationwide covid infection.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/01/...d-19-cases-doh

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday about 60 more cases at 1,302. Tests latest number down a little to 19.2k individuals.
Deaths 13
Active 9,105, up 399.

Location detail

The NCR up 33 to 625 cases. But its 6 largest cities total down by 14 to 357. QC 139, Manila 83, Paranaque 52.

Region CL at 72. Bulacan 24.
Region 4A up 49 to 295. Cavite up 45 to 132, Rizal up 21 to 65. Laguna 59, Batangas down 14 to 33.

These 3 regions at a higher 76% of all cases.

The Visayas total down at 173. WV 100, CV 62.
Bacolod City higher than lately at 12, IloIlo City 37, Cebu City 25.

Mindanao cases up 22 to 72. But the NM region much higher than recently at 22.
CDO City higher at 12.

Omicron BA.5, which we certainly have here now increasing the cases,much better at immune escape than previous Omicron variants as well as being as highly transmissible. According to Dr John and UK ZOE App data:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bfcb9067da.png

For us here too vaccination and previous infection will protect against serious illness. And the Philippines with the advantages of a younger population and more control measures. But this UK BA.5 reinfection data looks to mean we will have a significant wave in the Rainy Season. Implications for companies and offices. It is still a coronavirus Some will be hospitalized and a low percentage suffer long term symptoms.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update:

For national cases only a slightly lower week on week increase of 57%.

NCR cases also increased by 57%. In its 6 biggest cities the total increased by less, 46%. Indicating higher cases rise in the other 11 smaller cities.
QC, Manila and Taguig each increased their cases by about 50%. Paranaque's by 42%, Pasig's low at 21%. Caloocan City cases increased on small numbers by 69%.

A bigger increase in the CL region at 72%, though still small numbers there at about 70 cases a day.
But the large 4A region increased its cases by 68%. Within that Cavite's rose by 90%, Rizal's by 66%

Though still with small numbers cases also rose in the CAR, Illocos and Cagayan Valley regions.

In the Visayas cases rose by 53%. At a slightly faster rate in the WV than in the CV region.
IloIlo City cases rose by 58% to 225. Cebu City's increased by 50% to 92.
But cases in the EV region fell by 7 to only 29.
Tacloban City reported 6 cases only.

Bicol, cases nearly doubled, but only to 78.

Mindanao cases rose by 52 to 363. Davao City cases by 42 to 97.
Small numbers in its cities:
CDO City 28, GenSan City 16, Iligan City 5,Zamboanga City 31.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday up slightly to 1,323 cases nationally. Testing fell to 18.0k individuals on the 2nd.
Deaths 14
Active 9.703, up 598

Location detail

The NCR up by 38 to 663 and half of all cases. Of those 470 cases from its 6 biggest cities. QC 142, Manila 126, Pasig 70, Paranaque 66.

Region CL went up to to 85, Bulacan 32 cases.
4A down by 59 to 236. Cavite down by 58 to 74, Laguna up to 66, Rizal down to 54. Batangas up to 38 cases.

These 3 regions 74% of all cases.

The Visayas total went up a little to 191. WV 108, CV 60.
IloIlo City 40, Cebu City 27 cases.

Mindanao down to 61 cases.
Continuing small numbers reported in its cities.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Lost the detailed report as I was about to post through a sudden internet failure so just time for a briefer one:

Cases down to 1,188 as Sunday tests fell to 13.8k.
NCR cases down to 557 and 47% of all cases.
QC 134, Manila 86.

CL region 86.
4A up 25 to 261. Cavite up 30 to 104.
The 3 top regions with 76% of all cases.

Visayas down to 178.

Mindanao cases down to 49.

DOH weekly report:

Cases up by 60%.
Deaths 74 (51) None after June 20.
Severe and Critical patients: little change.
ICU 15.3% (145.9%)

Singapore:

Dealing with a BA.5 wave before other countries in the region:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...07bd92f7f9.png
Singapore

Mandatory testing not resuming yet, but staffing problems there:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...-covid-19-wave

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Against the trend that about 500 less cases were reported yesterday at 832, despite test numbers on the 4th at a much higher 19.9k.
Deaths 8
Active 10,032, down 62

Location detail

NCR 375 and down to 45% of all cases. 247 from its 6 biggest cities. QC 79, Manila 58, Paranaque 37.

Region CL down 16 to 70. Bulacan 18.
Region 4A down 75 to 186. Cavite 71, Laguna 39, Rizal 37, Batangas 34

These 3 regions maintained 76% of all cases.

The Visayas 114 cases.
Mindanao 45 cases. Noteworthy: Davao City up to 21.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...37d7cca53d.png
Adverse Effects following vaccination,AEFI and Serious Adverse Effects, SAE Philippines by vaccine type.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b0c4970bcd.png
A graph relating Philippine deaths attributable to covid 19 and vaccination roll out dates.

The above graphics taken from newsletters from https://supersally.substack.com/ which are published frequently with forthright comments of the author on the very latest Philippine data showing the effects of covid 19 here.

Births may have also been affected by covid 19, though this need deeper analysis to account for the effects of family planning programs here since 2017.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7174084a8a.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Testing up by 2.7k on the 5th and there were 366 more cases announced yesterday at 1,198. A high increase but for some time now we have had no way of calculating the inclusion of backlogs.
Deaths 12
Active 10,323, up 291
Tests 22.6k on July 5.

Latest OCTA positivity data: July 3-5:
8.7% national, 9.8% NCR.

Location detail

NCR up 178 to 553 and 46% of all cases. Top 6 cities with 337 cases, a smaller percentage of the NCR total. QC 98, Manila 70, Paranaque 64.

Region CL up 37 to 107. Bulacan 32.
4A up 89 to 275. Cavite 104, Laguna 70, Batangas 53, Rizal 40.

These 3 regions up to 78% of all cases.

Visayas up 40 to 154. WV to 101.
IloIlo City to 43..highest this week so far.
CV down 3 to 36 cases.

Mindanao up 10 to 55 cases.
Davao City 24 cases.

The DOH tries to rescue BBM..

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ays-doh/story/

..by changing it to a comparison with previous SARS Cor 2 variants.

Omicron variants, especially the latest, have become as transmissible as Measles and are much more pathogenic than the 'flu.
See the chart at the end of my post on June 19, # 1711.

Dr J presents research confirming they have much greater immune escape:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...22f693b156.png
So reinfection after a few months much more likely.

Going against the trend of the earlier Omicron SARS Cor 2 variants to affect mainly the upper airways the evidence now points to potentially more lower airway and lung infection from BA.4 and 5:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a8f2707717.png

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b21799cca5.png

Dr J said that South African hospital data does not show this. He mentioned Portugal, but a look at Worldometer data shows there also not much effect in their recent small wave. Though Britain may be different.

So for the Philippines we start with our young population and a higher level of adherence to protocols.So these findings on severity may not be so relevant as we now start our BA 4/5 wave. But the new government here under BBM is pressing on with its booster roll out, which seems to have stalled. So far 13% first booster, 1 % second. Also with child vaccinations. Even though the evidence is now showing the low protection given by vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain.they are still recommended to protect against serious illness and death. .But when that is much less likely with Omicron and in a country which has the advantages above is it the right policy here? Seems to me the public here can sense the futility of boosters even though they don't know the reasons.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday an increase of well over 700 more cases to record 1,936. Testing on July 6 down a little to 21.7k.
Deaths 3
Active 11,370, up 1047

Latest OCTA positivity data:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...24c6c83208.png
NCR and selected provinces. Spreading out from the NCR.

Location detail

NCR up by nearly 300 to 849 but a lower 44% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 60% of the cases. QC 163, Taguig 82, Paranaque and Pasig both with 62.

CL up to 176. Bulacan 57.
4A up 138 to 413. Cavite 126, Laguna 110, Rizal 89, Batangas 81.

These 3 regions had a lower 74% of all cases.

Elsewhere in N Luzon the CAR, Cagayan Valley and especially Ilocos regions all with increases.
Ilocos added 41 to 56.
Baguio City 29.

Bicol region 27.

In the Visayas 270 cases. MIM 27, WV up 55 to 156 and CV up 47 to 83.
Cebu City 31, IloIlo City 76.
Tacloban City 0 and only 2 cases so far this week.

Mindanao up to 83. Davao City 27 cases.
Otherwise its main cities with small numbers still.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

When you compare Philippines new daily declared cases they are small beer when compared to the UK,France and Germany. Also the death rates in these countries are on the increase which begs the question, are the majority deaths made up by the unvaccinated?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Also the proportion of deaths to number of cases is far greater it the Philippines compared to those European countries so is it the poorer healthcare in the Philippines or vastly under counting of cases.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I think the Philippines greatly under counted cases but we can be much more certain that it also vastly under counted deaths due to covid after seeing the work the PSA did. Roughly speaking deaths double the DOH figure. I reported on that here last year. Added to that there is evidence of more deaths from vaccination itself here. See some recent charts here.

Rather than comparing with Europe, where Worldometer shows figures of deaths per M population (preferable now testing is being run down) of 2,634 for the UK, Germany 1,681 and France 2,287 I think we better to look at similar countries in the region:

Indonesia 561
Malaysia 1,078 high!
Thailand 439
Singapore 240
Philippines 539

But the real Philippines number likely at least double.

Vaccination status:

Not much information on people dead and seriously ill with covid and their vaccination status. Anti vaxxers and Dr John have been complaining about that. Hinting and more strongly saying it is deliberate by governments, even in the UK, to cover up the declining effectiveness of vaccines.

But just recently the ONS came up with this. Dr John may well discuss this soon on his channel.

"Deaths by vaccination status

COVID-19 mortality rates lowest for those with three vaccinations

Risk of death involving COVID-19 in England has been consistently lower for people who had a third vaccine dose or booster at least 21 days ago, compared with unvaccinated people and those with only a first or second dose.

Before March 2022, people who had received a second vaccine dose but not a third dose had a higher risk of death involving COVID-19 if their second vaccine dose was over six months ago than if they had their second dose less than six months ago. This indicated possible waning protection from vaccination over time.

Between March and May 2022, risk of death involving COVID-19 was similar for those who had received only a first or second dose and unvaccinated people, also indicating possible waning. However, there is more uncertainty around these estimates because of smaller populations.

While these rates are adjusted for age, they are not the same as vaccine effectiveness. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people likely differ in characteristics other than age, such as health. Some deaths are expected in vaccinated people as the number who are vaccinated is high and no vaccine is 100% effective.

Last updated: 06/07/2022"

As time goes by the effectiveness of the original vaccines will wane and Omicron is showing increasing immune escape lately. The Philippines booster roll out slow. Cases were not high here so immunity from previous infection is low.
So we are vulnerable here and facilities may get under pressure again.
If they start to believe in "living with the virus" the dreaded controls may not come back on......but at present no announcement on who is to be Health Secretary, so we await his or her views.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday there were over 200 fewer cases announced over the day before. 1,712. Testing fell a little to 21.3k the day before.
Deaths 14
Active 12,528, up 1,158

Positivity: Nationally up to 9.2% July 3-7

Location detail

NCR down about 100 to 748 and maintaining 44% of all cases. Its top 6 cities with 443 cases.
QC 143, Manila 89, Pasig and Taguig both 66, Paranaque 57 cases.

Region CL down a little to 159.
4A down 42 to 371. Cavite 123, Laguna 91, Rizal 86.

These 3 regions up slightly to 75% of all cases.

Visayas numbers down 30 at 240.
WV 148, CV 60

Mindanao down 10 at 73.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 113 more added resulting in 1,825 vases announced. Tests on the 8th 22,2k.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...36ebd512a5.png
Tests not increasing in line with cases.

Deaths 0
Active 13,021, up 493

Location detail

NCR 835 and up at 46% of all cases. For its 6 largest cities 508 cases. QC up to 162, Taguig 95, Manila 93, Pasig 81.

CL region 141, Bulacan 55.
4A up 20 to 391. Cavite 135..highest this week, Rizal 104, Laguna 85, Batangas 62.

These 3 regions with 75% of all cases.

Visayas up to 282 Both the WV and CV regions up a little.
IloIlo City 63, Cebu City 25, Tacloban City 1.

Mindanao up 6 to 79.
Davao City up to 24.

Latest OCTA positivity data:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2a49172a22.png
Region 4A provinces in particular continuing to indicate many more cases could be found.
Pampanga needs to be monitored.
National positivity July 3-8 at 9.5%.


Weekly report later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update:

National reported case growth slowed last week to 45% from 57% last week.

NCR case growth slowed more to 36% from 57% last week.
Quite a large range in growth rates in its 6 biggest cities:

Taguig 71%
Pasig 70
Manila 52
Paranaque 43
QC 28
Caloocan 20

Region CL up by 69% and 4A by 64%.
Bulacan 27%, Cavite 54%, Laguna 80%, Rizal 67%, Batangas 69%.

With smaller numbers increases also in the N Luzon regions of the CAR, Ilocos and Cagayan.
Baguio City up 12 to 110.

Visayan case growth 42% (53% last week)
IloIlo City up 49% at 336. Cebu City up 21 to 159.
Mindanao case growth 23% (17% last week). But case numbers at 445 only a third of those in the Visayas.
Davao City up 43 to 140.

Do these figures mean a significant slowing in case growth? In some cities in the NCR, quite possibly. Perhaps not elsewhere given the low testing and high positivity in some areas,.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday nearly 200 more cases but the latest test number fell by over 3k to 18.8k.

The OCTA group have picked this issue up:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ta-says/story/

Deaths 1
Active 13,818, up 797
OCTA positivity July 3-9: 9.6%

Location detail

The NCR had 838 cases and a lower 42% of all cases. From its 6 biggest cities 478.
QC 160, Manila 101, Paranaque 82

CL up 63 at 222. Bulacan 62, Pampanga 49.
4A up 53 at 424. Cavite 135, Laguna up 37 to 122, Rizal 90, Batangas 66.

Visayas with WV up 46 to 194. CV up 31 to 91.
Cebu City 43, IloIlo City 74...both up by about 20 cases.

Mindanao cases up 16 to 89.
Davao City 26....otherwise continuing small main city numbers.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Low weekend testing at 15.2k gave the over 300 fewer cases announced yesterday at 1,660.
Active 14,218, up 400.

Location detail:

All regions except Zamboanga Pen. reported fewer case numbers.

NCR 769 and up in national share at 46%. Its 6 biggest cities with only 8 less cases at 470.
QC 156, Manila 103, Paranaque 78.

CL down a lot at 124, Bulacan 32, Pampanga 29
4A down nearly 90 at 336...Cavite 110, Rizal 70, Batangas 69, Laguna 68.

Visayas down 58 at 244.
Cebu City 26, IloIlo City 60.

Mindanao up 5 at 94.
Davao City 22, Zamboanga City up 7 to 9.

Latest OCTA positivity chart:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fbe89697cb.png
Only for selected areas but positivity high in some parts of the Visayas and N. Luzon.

DOH weekly report

As has become usual it's not up yet on their site.
According to GMA News:
Cases 10,271 (7,398) up 39%
For comparison my calendar week had a 57% increase.

Deaths 50 (74) None of them since June 27.

Severe and Critical:
New patients 27 (19)
Admitted 555 (497)

ICU beds 17% (15.3%)
Non ICU 22.7% (19.9%)

So indications of covid hospital facilities under some increased utilization as cases increase.
Remembering that if the pattern of 2020 and 2021 is followed a large fraction of patients sick with covid won't be admitted into these "primary" facilities.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 300 less cases announced yesterday.and the latest test number for the 11th July showing tests up to 20.6k individuals. But now that case numbers are higher it seems likely that many more results are now back to taking 2 days or more to be validated. For a while now the DOH tracker data has not shown daily positivity, as it used to do.

Active 14,464, up 244

Location detail

The NCR with 597 cases and a lower 44% of the national total. Its 6 largest cities with 362 cases...QC 122, Manila 70, Paranaque 65.

CL constant at 124, Bulacan more than doubled to 66.
4A with one more case at 337. Cavite up 37 to 147, Rizal 65, Batangas 57, Laguna 55.

These 3 regions at a much higher 78% of all cases.

Visayas cases down to 177.
Cebu City 34.

Mindanao cases down 38 to 56.
Davao City 12.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0260c887c3.png
If this is true...and it is based on the results of a not yet peer reviewed paper...then the succession of Omicron variants may not be as benign as generally thought. Dr John is sceptical about that.. From the latest Dr J video on BA.4 and 5 waves in the UK variants much more successful spreading through immune escape than earlier Omicron variants.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday about 4k more tests done 2 days ago and an increase in new cases to 1,604.
Active 14,862, up 398.

Location detail:

The NCR with 40 more over the day before at 637. But cases from its 6 biggest cities down 42 at 320...QC 112, Manila 73, Pasig 52.
The NCR with a lower 40% of all cases.

Region CL up 79 at 203. Bulacan 52, Pampanga 54.
4A with only a slight increase to 347. Laguna up 58 to 113, Cavite 91, Batangas 69, Rizal 61.

These 3 regions with a lower 74% of all cases.

In the Visayas WV up 90 to 186. CV down to 33.
Total cases up 60 to 237.
IloIlo City 79, Cebu City down to 15.

Mindanao cases up 20 to 76.
Davao City up at 33...but CDO, Zamboanga and GenSan Cities only with 10 cases between them.
Iligan City with a high 4. Usually 0-2.
So that leaves 29 from smaller areas there.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a splurge of 2,371 cases with test numbers down by over 1k.
Deaths 1
Active 16,244, up 1,382

Location detail:

NCR at 955 and 40% of all cases.
QC 170, Manila 119, Paranaque 83.
Its 6 biggest cities with a lower 57% of its cases.

Region CL up by only 1 at 204 whereas 4A up by over 200 to 552.
Cavite 190, Laguna 135, Rizal 101.

These 3 regions with 72% of all cases.

The CAR, Cagayan and Ilocos regions all with moderate increases too.
Baguio City up 32 to 40 cases.

In the Visayas the total went up by over 100 to 354 cases.
Notably CV was up by 110 to 143 cases.
Cebu City 71.

Mindanao numbers were up too. By 42 to 118.
CDO City 20, Davao City 41.
But reports from its other main cities still very low.

The doleful ex Under Secretary gains from BBMs failure to pick a a new Health Secretary:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...doh-oic/story/

From her performance over the pandemic years think we can expect no great changes in DOH policies
Looks to me she will be made permanent soon too.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well at least she is a well respected health professional. I imagine that those who have been considered view the position as one with a poisoned chalice.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

She knows, literally in some ways, where the bodies are! BBM doesn't want an outsider coming in and discovering more of what went on with issues like Pharmally and the poor data. Competent, respected maybe but putting her in the top job but in an acting capacity does what the BBM-Duterte admin wants.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 200 more new cases announced yesterday at 2,588 with the latest test number down by 2k to 21,2k.
Active 18,090, up substantially 1,846

Location detail

The NCR up 29 to 984 and a lower 38% of all cases. The cases in its 6 biggest cities up 14 to 563 and still at 57% of the total.
QC 180, Manila 112, Taguig 98.

Latest OCTA NCR report:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...152c7544e3.png
Well...cases on the 14th were 45 less than 1,000, 16 less on the 16th. So gradually getting to 1k. They're not very sure where case numbers are going. Seemingly more confident that health facilities in NCR cities can cope.

The DOH have a higher NCR postivity rate, though no information on when measured, and seem not so confident about the future of case rates there:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...isk-doh/story/

Region CL up by 60 with Bulacan 83, Pampanga 39 cases.
Region 4A up by 122 to 674...Cavite up 56 to 246, Laguna up 14 to 149, Batangas also up 14 to 113, Rizal up 44 to 145.

These 3 regions with an increased 74% of all cases.

The Visayas total steady at 348 with WV up 45 to 236. But CV was down 51 to 92.
IloIlo City up 11 to 89, Bacolod City went up to 19 cases. Cebu City 45, Tacloban City still low with 2 cases.

Mindanao down 13 at 105 total cases. Its cities staying very low.
But noteworthy that Iligan City, normally reporting 0-2 cases reported 7!

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b1a00e4215.png
The BA.4/5 later Omicron variants causing very high UK prevalence, according to both ZOE data and ONS data. Generally mild cold like symptoms but some effect on hospitalizations. Though the data not showing it likely the same in the rest of Europe and the US. It's the summer travel season in those countries and the Philippines is open.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 9 less new cases at 2,578. Latest individual test number up by 1.5k.
Active cases 18,990, up 2,746

OCTA calculate national positivity July 10-15 at 11.8%.

Location detail

NCR with a lower 36% of all cases at 916. Though cases in its 6 largest cities rose a little to 577, 63% of the NCR total.
QC up 22 to 202, Manila 113, Taguig 84.

Region CL up 13 to 277.....Bulacan 77, Pampanga up 30 to 69.
4A about the same at 675 cases.... Cavite 200, Laguna up 25 to 174, Rizal up 28 to 173, Batangas with 12 fewer at 101.

These 3 regions at 73% of all cases.

The Ilocos region up 14 to 85.

The Visayas with 29 more cases at 377. WV and CV up by a few cases each. IloIlo City 99.
Cebu City 49.

Mindanao up by 37 cases. All its regions up. Davao to 54. Davao City itself more than doubled to 48 cases.

Weekly report later today.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly report:

Some reduction in the rate of national increase.. Last week 14,182 (10,014) cases. A 42% (57%) increase.

The NCR had a greater slow down with an 11% (36%) increase.

For its 6 biggest cities:

Paranaque +20% (+43%)
QC 20 (28)
Taguig 19 (71)
Caloocan 17 (20)
Pasig 11 (70)
Manila 8 (52)

A dramatic slowdown in 4 NCR cities.

Region CL had a slightly faster rate of increase by 72 (69). Bulacan by 83 (29).
Region 4A slowed a little...57 (64):

Laguna 59 (80)
Rizal 51 (67)
Cavite 52 (54)
Batangas 30 (69)

Laguna cases still increasing at a high rate. Cavite cases grew by about 50% a week over the past fortnight.

In the Visayas cases increased by 43 (42).
in WV the increase was a little faster 51 (48).
In CV a lot faster 45 (22).
Cebu City cases by 78%, though the populous city had only 283 cases for the week.
IloIlo City cases by 51 (49)

In Mindanao case numbers are still small but there was a 54% (23%) increase.
Davao City 46 (44).Its case numbers low still at 205.

Evidence supporting the claim by some concerned doctors and health experts here that the Philippine's vaccine roll out did not go well for many people:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...81e1289edc.png
The sudden jump in deaths post vaccination roll outs to the different age groups seem to rule out natural causes as a cause.
For more on this see the latest newsletter from:

https://supersally.substack.com/

Singapore having a surprisingly difficult time with the later Omicron variants;

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9997880c28.png
Singapore covid cases.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7f8439da46.png
Singapore covid deaths fell but now seem to have reached a floor.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Ten fewer cases yesterday at 2,560 and the latest individual test number was down by about 3k or 13%.
Active 19,873, up 893

Latest OCTA positivity table:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e2522f39b4.png

Location detail

NCR up 72 to 988 and 39% of all cases. Its six biggest cities totaled 602, 61% of the NCR total. QC 197, Manila 100, Pasig and Paranaque each 93, Taguig 83, Caloocan 36.

CL and 4A both down a little to 272 and 630 cases.
In CL Bulacan 73, Pampanga 70.
For 4A: Cavite 200, Laguna 166, Rizal 139, Batangas 103 cases,

These 3 regions with 74% of all cases.

Visayas numbers down to 302.
Cebu City 53, IloIlo City 43.

Mindanao up slightly to 154.
Davao City 46, CDO City 18, Zamboanga City 12.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

I think to be called an expert on this virus you have to be more aware of what's going on in other countries with these later Omicron variants than this doctor seems to be. Namely immune escape. So the modest total of 71M with two doses, with about 40% of them having had the less effective Coronavac vaccine, booster only 15M which is further weakened by the high immune escape of BA.4 and 5 Omicron variants. Which we surely have here now.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A 20% fall in testing on the 16th and nevertheless cases numbers down by only 10%, at 2,285.
Active 20,524, up 651.

Location detail

The NCR 911 and 40% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities 580, QC 232, Manila 89, Pasig and Taguig 81. Paranaque 63.

Region CL stable at 273, Bulacan 75, Pampanga 84.
4A down by about 100 at 529. Cavite up 20 to 220, Laguna down to 118, Rizal and Batangas both 90.

Ilocos nearly doubled to 102.
The CAR up 12 to 40.
Baguio City 30.

For the Visayas both WV and CV cases were down. In total by 55 to 247.
But IloIlo City was up slightly to 51.
Cebu City 47.

Mindanao cases were down by 40 to 114.
Davao City 30 cases.

DOH weekly report

Cases up 44% (39%)... for their "week".
1 Death (50)

Severe and Critical:

589 (555) admissions
35 (27) new patients

ICU 18.3% (17.0%)
Non ICU 23.8% (22.7%)

Re: NCR llockdown
 

As usual a further dip on Tuesday in cases from weekend testing. Announced yesterday 1,841. Latest test numbers up to 20.6k individuals.
Active 20.511, down 13. A splurge of recoveries.

Location detail

NCR 710 and 39% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities providing 450...QC 185, Manila 101, up 12, Pasig 53.

CL region down to 229, 4A to 434.
Bulacan stable at 75, Pampanga fell to 56.
Cavite down to 147, Laguna to 97, Batangas 69, Rizal up 9 to 99.

These 3 regions again providing 75% of all cases.

Visayas numbers down 11 to 236 overall, but WV was up 3 to 150. CV down 15 to 73.
Cebu City 33, IloIlo City 48.

Mindanao down 7 to 107.
Davao City 31.

GMA News giving a comprehensive list of Alert levels to the end of the month:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=1

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...53d906a30e.png
Dr J presenting Australian evidence of the main feature of the later Onicron variants.....immune escape. Ties in with evidence from the UK and US. Looks likely to be ignored here as the new administration seems to be planning a big vaccination push.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=3

Yes, the evidence is they give good protection against serious illness. But with its young population how serious a risk is that here and wouldn't a campaign restricted to only the population at serious risk be better?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday well over 200 more cases than the day before at 2,074. Latest test numbers up 3k at 23.6k individuals.
Active 20,678, up 167

Location detail

NCR 788 and a slightly lower 38% of all cases. The six biggest cities with 464 of them, 59%. QC 163, Manila 101, Pasig 66 cases.

Region CL with a few more cases at 238, Bulacan 73, Pampanga 58 cases.
Region 4A up 56 to 490. Cavite up 31 to 178, Laguna 46 to 143, Batangas 73, Rizal down 11 to 88.

In the Visayas CV numbers rose by 30 to 103, WV 147. Total up 36 to 272 cases.
Cebu City 54, IlioIlo City 50 .Bacolod City 15, Tacloban City 1

Mindanao down 20 at 87.
Davao City 22, CDO City 12.
I am somewhat surprised Mindanao reports are not much greater..Perhaps as there is more contact with the NCR than the Visayas?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/20/...-behind-us-sws

This says to me that most people are not going to be happy to be pushed to take boosters without either some incentives or being made necessary to be considered fully vaccinated.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 750 more cases yesterday at 2,828. But the latest individual test number stable at 23.6k.
Active 22,207, up 1,529

Location detail

The NCR up by over 200 to 1,002. But that is a lower 70% of all cases. Its largest 6 cities with 622 cases...QC 215, Manila 112, Paranaque 96, Pasig and Taguig 87.

Region CL up 100 at 238. Bulacan 74, Pampanga up 19 to 77.
4A up 142 to 632...Cavite down a little to 167, Laguna up 37 to 180, Laguna up 34 to 107.

These 3 regions with a lower 70% of all cases.

The CAR up 24 to 74...Baguio City 50.
Cagayan up 64 to 106.
Ilocos up only 9 to 68.

The Visayas up over 100 to 391. WV up 34 to 181, CV up 72 to 175.
Cebu City 89, IloIlo City up 15 to 65.

Mindanao cases up 60 to 147. But increases in its main cities, except for Zamboanga, were small.
Zamboanga City up 11 to 19.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Announced yesterday were over 500 more cases than the day before at 3,389. And the latest test number down by nearly 2k.
Deaths 15
Active 24,478, up 2,271

Reflecting nationwide positivity up at 14% for July 17-21.

Location detail:

The NCR had 167 more cases than announced Thursday at 1,169. Its 6 largest cities 71 more at 693. QC 219, Manila 31 more at 143, Taguig 37 more at 124, Pasig 96, Paranaque 77, Caloocan 34.

NCR Positivity:

OCTA had predicted NCR positivity was about to peak..but...


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...36966008fc.png
Region CL up 42 to 380...Bulacan up 30 to 104, Pampanga 95.
For region 4A an increase of 165 on the day before to 797. Cavite up 116 to 283, Laguna 62 to 242, Rizal 147, Batangas 110.

These 3 regions down slightly with 69% of all cases.

Visayas cases up 80 to 471. CV the same at 175, WV up 51 to 232.
Cebu City 82, IloIlo City 66, Bacolod 12.

Mindanao cases up 15 to 162.
Davao City up 17 to 43.

Two interesting recent videos from Dr John Campbell.
This one on vaccines for 5-11 year olds.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...98e119c855.png
Vaccine effectiveness declining rapidly over time. Singapore data from January 2022.
Though protection against severe disease is given policy makers need to balance that against adverse reactions.

US data presented by the reliable NY Times:


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...480f74e925.png
The benefit of vaccination still there in Omicron times, but greatly diminished.


Long Covid....the ONS with some laboratory confirmed UK data

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...69aeb89c71.png
The Omicron percentage a little less than Delta's, he says.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The child vaccinations is an interesting video but I can't help thinking Dr John is missing a trick. Ok there was 22 adverse events and 5 serious illnesses but not vaccinating would have prevented the 22 adverse reactions but how many would the hospitalizations gone up by.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Hardly any at all. From the data given only 30 kids out of 51,995 in the unvaccinated group were hospitalized. Very uunlikely to be seriously ill too as out of the only 5 kids in the study given supplemental oxygen just one was unvaccinated. They don't say if that kid was in intensive care, only that 4 of the 5 kids were.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday well over 200 more cases at 3,604. Latest daily test total up 1.6k to 23.1k.
Deaths 14
Active 25,743, up 1,265

Location detail

The NCR up by over 150 to 1,324 and a higher 37% of all cases.Its 6 largest cities with over 100 more cases at 811.
QC up to 274, Manila up to 159, Taguig 121, Paranaque up 37 to 114, Pasig 100, Caloocan up 9 to 43.

Region CL up 56 to 380...Bulacan steady at 103, Pampnga up 19 to 114.
Region 4A up 132 to 929. Cavite up 79 to 362, Laguna down 25 to 217, Rizal up 30 to 177, Batangas up 12 to 122. Quezon with 51 much higher than recently. Last week averaged 16 a day.
These 3 regions at a much higher 75% of all cases.

Visayan cases were down 69 to 402. WV case number stable but CV down over 50 to 122.
Cebu City down to 57, IloIlo City up 17 to 83.

Mindanao cases up 26 to 188..
Both NM and Davao regions up a little.
CDO City 19, Davao City 45, Iligan City 4...which is unusually high!

Pushing ahead with covid boosters for all seemingly not the answer if you look at Australian and NZ data:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8b118de63c.png
Australia well into second boosters roll out.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f76a555ad7.png
New Zealand will soon start second boosters to vulnerable groups. Note the high death rate.

For more on this see the July 22 newsletter from:

https://supersally.substack.com/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update

Cases nationally showing some slowdown in growth...31% (57%).
A total of 18.581 cases.

But as shown yesterday NCR cases, total 6,892, are rising faster again.....last week by 35% (11%)
For its 6 largest cities:
Caloocan 39%
QC 35
Pasig 31
Taguig 31
Manila 17
Paranaque 13

Noting that Caloocan case numbers low at 202 last week.

So how did a national slowdown occur?

Mainly because both the CL and 4A regions showed slower growth:

Region CL 53% (72%) and 4A 33% (57%).
In the provinces of those two regions differing growth rates:
Bulacan 29% (83%), Pampanga 87%
Bataan also with growing case numbers. To be monitored starting this week.
Cavite 39%, (52%) Laguna 43% (59%), Rizal 69% (51%), Batangas 42% (30%).
Total cases 6,607.
Due to its high population the slowdown in Cavite most significant.

Contributing also in the Visayas region WV fell by 4% (rise of 51%). and CV rose by 40% (45%).
Overall 16% (43%) and total cases 2,039.
IloIlo City -20% (51%), Cebu City 47% (78%).

Mindanao overall 61% (54%)
Davao City 19% (46%), CDO City 30% (27%).
But total cases only 1,101.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2b550ef439.png
Dr John presents Qatari data showing the size of the level of protection against reinfection by BA.5 especially if you already had previous Omicron infection.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...870a0453a0.png

A negative factor here that the percentage who have never had covid and especially any Omicron virus is much higher. The Omicron wave here earlier this year very moderate.