Raffin

Covid news update:

The latest You tube covid video output dominated by Dr Campbell, who wants to repeat misinformation or missed information as much as possible. Hoping other You tubers then get tired of rebutting him.

He got excited about the FDA in the US now allowing doctors there to prescribe Ivermectin for covid.
Nothing from him about the fact that nearly all the health authorities in the world do not recommend it. Many large studies worldwide have shown it to be ineffective. The Oxford Principle trial was paused and never resumed.
Research is still ongoing with 93 studies listed by the FDA. But many of them are small. All despite many individuals claiming it was effective for them.



Dr Campbell continues to talk about myocarditis after covid vaccination. Blasting Australia's TGA for saying it won't in future be mentioning it in its regular vaccine safety updates. As reporting rates there are as low as 2 per 100k. Campbell ignores that they say they are continuing to monitor it and will update if necessary. He believes the rate is much higher due to massive under reporting..He recently misrepresented a Swiss study to give the impression rates were around 2,800 per 100.000.....or 1 in 35. .


As usual nothing about myocarditis post covid infection.
Which many studies show has rates multiples greater.

Dr Campbell is desperate for new material to support his changed view on covid vaccines but has none at present.
So he keeps on about myocarditis. He returns to the Australian Senate Committee interview of two Pfizer representatives.
A well known anti vaxxer,Sen Rennick, asks a question about the mechanism by which the mRNA vaccine causes myocarditis:
The two Pfuzer men did not answer it. They were probably not prepared to. Rather than trying to hide something.


Pfizer later put out a statement. Below I just include
the later part of it.


Later in the video Campbell gives his ideas. Note he is not a medical doctor, virologist or scientist.

This report is just out from the ONS about vaccination status and covid mortality In England up to May 31, 2023:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...england/latest

Again showing the effectivity of covid vaccination. Of most relevance now it suggests first boosters are effective. It's less sure about second or extra boosters as the data actually shows worse mortality. The ONS explains this by thm being targeted on people with the greatest vulnerability..
Anti vaxxers often say that successive boosters reduce immunity levels. Expert immunologists mostly say that is not true if the proper intervals between doses are kept to.

SS's latest newsletter on Australian provisional 2023 mortality shows it continuing to rise. She is an anti vaxxer and sees it as responding to booster vaccination. But the relevant factor is the later timing of covid infection in Australia compared to most other countries. Deaths in those countries took a while to decline as factors during the peak years of the Pandemic, notably covid itself, its sequelae and the effects of controls, increased mortality. As has happened with pandemics in the past.

https://supersally.substack.com/

Raffin

Weekly covid update August 21-27.

New cases 801 (789) up 1.5% (-15%)
Deaths 6 (10)
All in past 2 weeks.

Active: 2,645.

Hospital Data

New admissions 13 (11)
Admitted 240 (242)
ICU 10.3% (11.0%)
Non ICU 12.7% (13.5%)

Too early to know but possibly here a variant is around which will also lead to further increases over the coming months.
Today a new video from Dr Campbell on a US CDC statement, which as usual, is interpreted by him to put vaccination in a poor light:


A new variant causing concern. It may evade the vaccines more. But what he doesn't say
to his listeners is that they will still give more protection than if you are unvaccinated and
with no covid infection. And will still give protection against hospitalization and death.
He makes more sensible comments about the CDC recommending boosters for all age
groups over 6 months. Though still using Australian data to blame them for vaccine
injuries.

UK recommendations are quite different:

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2023...-need-to-know/

Raffin

Weekly DOH covid report Aug 28 - Sep 3.

New cases 780 (801) A fall of 2.6% (+2%)
Deaths 5 (6)
3 in August, 2 in July.

Latest UK ZOE report shows a continuing rise there:


As of Sep 3. Official NHS data ceased months ago.

Strangely however official US data showing a surprising large recent case fall in Worldometers:

Aug 30 17,520
Aug 31 9,617
then...
Sep 3 2,690
Sep 4 2,218

However a new wave of cases and hospitalizations is expected by many commentators. BA 2.86 again mentioned. Problem is testing is not free now.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/oth...st/ar-AA1gclEN

Latest: Jill Biden tests positive for covid.

Most SE and E Asian countries no longer reporting to Worlometers. The exception being Vietnam with under 50 daily.
Philippines 112 yesterday.

Hospital Data

New Serious cases 10 (13)
Admitted 291 (240)
ICU 10.8% (10.3%)
Non ICU 13.9% (12.7%)

You tube covid update:


Pirola or BA.2.86 covid variant causes a 3 week advancement in the UK's Autumn booster
roll out. Hardly a panic reaction and not deserving a second day on BA 2.86 from Dr John
Campbell.



See the misleading video title a few days ago? He went on to
suggest the evasion would be greater for the vaccine than for
those infected. Using his understanding of immunology and a
few diagrams...

Dr Susan Oliver posted a video that put him right:


What's important for cell infection are the neutralizing antibodies. Come from both vaccines and infection.
.




:

Raffin

Latest Philippine vital statistics

Courtesy of SS Newsletter September 6
https://supersally.substack.com/


More 2022 data added, though still provisional. 2022 deaths slightly higher than those in 2019 and 2020 but a lot lower than 2021.


Death due to restricted blood flow through arteries by far the main cause of death in 2022 and 2019 and it increased its contribution by over 24% in 2022. Diabetes and Hypertension also showing big increases over 2019. Deaths due to respiratory illnesses greatly down in 2022. Due to people still taking prevention seriously?
Covid not making the top 10 causes of death in 2022.
The PSA found 17,662...5,052 confirmed and 12,610 identified covid cases. Contrast with the DOH number of 7,487 for 2022!


Births have been 800k lower since 2019.

Causes?

For the increase of ischemic heart disease in 2022 we need look no further than the effect of covid as a vascular disease rather than a respiratory one and perhaps some contribution from lack of diagnosis and treatment during the pandemic. Cholesterol tests are not free and their need easily overlooked. Deaths due to strokes, hypertension likewise.
As usual SS lists some factors which may have caused these changes. Some sensible ones like lockdown, poor medical services, poverty, diet changes....then the usual "some other factor". By which is meant by her serious ie deadly vaccine adverse effects. Ignoring the effects of covid, which experience from other pandemics tells us may persist killing indirectly for some years after the acute phase of infection.

The fall in births is obviously due to disruption to people both economically and socially during the pandemic. The economic situation of most people continuing to be affected by high inflation...especially food prices ..the 7-8% GDP growth since the fall during the pandemic not enough to provide the jobs needed. Unemployment, greatly underestimated here, has fallen since he pandemic but not by much and has actually risen since May this year.
Note: Some anti vaxxers, SS included, try to suggest covid vaccines have something to do with the low birth rate!

Dr John Campbell watch

A number of videos this week on topics away from covid.
But for the nth time he returned to excess deaths:



Starts off with a vaccination chart which orders countries by covid vaccine take up.
The low vaccine countries there are all in E Europe. He then goes on to put
up Our World in Data excess death charts from the high vaccine countries and points
out the peaks. Saying it is a pity they didn't benefit from the high vaccination rates..
Even effectively saying covid vaccination was a waste of money!
Didn't say that in Europe 8 out of the top 10 countries for covid deaths/M
were in E Europe. That the low vaccine rate country of Bulgaria had the highest
covid death rate per M. 5,618, compared to the UK's 3,342. That's 68% higher.
Those countries all also had high excess death peaks during the pandemic.
But when Dr Campbell puts up the charts for Romania and Bulgaria he talks
more about their recent low excess deaths Ignoring the peaks in the pandemic.
He does put up charts for the UK (more data on that below) and the US. The UK is
something of an exception, with very variable and stubbornly high excess death
data this year. To some extent the Netherlands and Ireland also.
The US chart shows excess deaths lately around zero..but again he focuses on \
the peaks during the pandemic.
But no charts for France, Germany, Spain and Italy....which have had around zero
excess deaths for many months this year!
Data cherry picked and misinterpreted by a master!




UK Our World chart 9% Aug 20, 9% Aug 13....

But a better picture recently from the ONS:
UK % Excess Deaths:

Weeks in July: 2.9, 3,3, 0.6, 0.8.
Weeks in August 4.1, 3.8, 4.1, 4.5

When Dr Campbell looks at the UK chart he first mentions "averaging 4.5%" then goes to the World in Data higher figure.
So he knows the lower ONS numbers but prefers to talk about the higher ones from Our World. A few months ago, when
UK Excess Deaths were even higher at around at over 12% he he had videos about the ONS data. But now Our World suits his purpose better.

The UK trend this year is down but not a consistent one. Difficult to explain the rise in August. Is it something to do with the NHS? Long waiting lists, strikes etc Just a guess.







.

Raffin

DOH Weekly Covid Report

Numbers still small but an upturn in cases and more concerning in the seriousness of hospital cases.

New cases 894 (780)
Increase 15% (-2.6%)

Deaths 14 (5)
7 Sep, 6 Aug, 1 June

Hospital Data

New 10 (10)
Admitted 276 (291)
ICU 13.1% (10.8%)
Non ICU 15.1% (13.9%)

Raffin

COVID NEWS UPDATE


Some covid vaccine data and evidence that anti vaxxers either don't know
about or ignore.

She looks at:

1. NHS England data on deaths by vaccination status.analyzed by the ONS:


Graph from Dr Oliver..not the ONS as they only give spreadsheet data.
Mortality data standardized by age. Dr Oliver gives a good discussion of the biases in the data between the 2 groups.
No data given but results for boosters also show a good advantage.

2. Vaccine safety: A US study in the journal Vaccine on 2021 data. Nearly 7M participants in 7 large areas of the US with about 3% of the US population.The authors say a socio-economically diverse population. Efforts made to adjust for confounding variables between the vaccinated and non vaccinated groups. Separate results for three covid vaccines are given.

Summary of results: covid vacinees vs non vacinees,

1. Lower non covid mortality rates for covid vacinees,
2. Covid vacinees faced less mortality hazard
3. No increased risk for non covid mortality after covid vaccination.

3. Risk of death at lower ages:


Relevant to the anti vaxxers young male athlete claims of sudden death is that males aged 15-24 have a 1 in 1,908 chance of dying each year. For those 25-34 a 1 in 1,215 chance of dying.

4. Outcomes for vaccinated vs infected. Indiana Study.
267,847 matched pairs of vaccinated vs infected


Hospitalizations were also 37% lower.
Dr Oliver provides a link to a previous video of hers with more detail on this study, which I
summarised in a post a few months ago.

5. The long term cardiovascular outcomes of covid:


A study in Nature showing the increased risk after covid. MACE stands for Major Adverse
Cardiovascular Events.

6. If you get covid what is the impact of vaccination on MACE?


A study in the journal of the American Cardiology College of over 1.9M US covid patients and MACE...fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and not vaccinated.
Early 2021.hence the low numbers of vaccinated.
Note: top left number should read 1,716, 451.
The vaccinated had a much higher probability of freedom from MACE.
Shaded areas confidence intervals for vaccination...showing up wide as small numbers in early 2021.

The Economist's analysis of Excess Deaths:

Excess mortality is a good measure of the true toll of the Pandemic. But many countries did not produce any or reliable data.
The Economist used other available data in an attempt to fill in the gaps. Published May 2021.
To read about their Excess Deaths model you will have to register:

https://myaccount.economist.com/s/lo...9660ac14ea4170

Pandemic-IC.com present in a blog some updated results of the model earlier this month.
First using the World Bank's Income groups.


Lower Income: Eg Most African countries, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, NOKOR. 26 in this group.
Lower Middle Eg Bagladesh, India, Philippines, Iran, Vietnam.....54
Upper Middle Eg Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, S Africa, Mexico, Thailand....54
High: Eg US,Canada, UK, European countries, Australia, NZ, ...China, Taiwan, Singapore....83

The Lower Income countries had the lowest excess deaths but they were still significant. Lower Middle Income excess deaths rose to overtake that of the high income countries from mid 2021 to be the highest. Against anti vaxxer's claims that because those countries could not afford vaccines they would actually do better for mortality!


Europe and Central Asia, S America, N America and S Asia the highest per capita rates.
Southern Africa and East Asia and the Pacific the lowest.

More on this and vaccine equity in:
https://pandem-ic.com/the-global-pic...is-disturbing/

Latest UK Excess Deaths ONS weekly data:


The large week to week volatility continues for the UK with another large drop.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...1september2023


Contrast with Our World in Data...latest data August 20:




Latest update of PSA data from SS in a newsletter posted today.

As of May 31 2023 Philippine deaths in 2022 have risen to be 9.5% above 2020 levels (previously up 8.2% after an update a month ago).
So 2022 deaths are still being updated this year.
But SS points out that 2021 deaths, while still classed as preliminary, have not been updated since March 31 2022!
She hints at the possibility of a nefarious reason for that delay. But it may just be an ongoing problem with the data collection in 2021.The DOH death count from covid has always been well below that of the PSA's so it is only a starting point.

Causes of Death update:

Ischemic (restricted blood and oxygen supply) now up 26.3% on 2019 (24.7% last update).
Diabetes up 22.4% (21.2%).
Hypertension up 38.7% (37.3%)

https://supersally.substack.com/

Raffin

Last week's covid report AWOL.

Mid pm Thursday and no DOH report on last week published. Although the DOH are still giving the daily figures.
I wonder why. One possibility is that the last two daily figures have been up a bit...168 yesterday and 160 the day before.
Not good to publicize them as the government tries to move on.

I wasn't able to record the missing daily figures last week. Worldometers are no longer given them it seems.But am recording them daily from now on.

Yesterday's figure came from the Manila Bulletin and their report included two latest hospital data:
Covid ICU capacity used 10.74%
Covid non ICU 15.01%

The ICU figure much lower than the 13.1% last seen over a week ago.
The non covid figure unchanged.

YOU TUBE:


Dr Susan Oliver with her usual robust response to a Dr John video nearly 2 weeks ago:


He picked out some examples of high and low vaccination countries. Then went on to try to show there was a correlation between the level of vaccination and excess deaths. While not saying that almost all of the low vaccination countries had high covid deaths. Strangely he focused on Hungary. One of the charted counties which he showed from Our World. But seemingly unknown to him it was an exception with a fairly high vaccination level. Some unique factors there maybe but he could have tried to make something of that but missed out as it wasn't in his vaccination list!


We've seen this approach before from Dr Campbell. He was corrected then but he doesn't care or doesn't look at them.

Dr Susan Oliver compares what he says now with what he has said in the past. Version 2.0 vs 1.0:



Elsewhere presented by another anti vaxxer,SS, we have some research which tries to do the same with 17 Southern Hemisphere countries. On first sight looks a thorough piece of data analysis:

Looking at only The Philippines:


They attempt to correlate the vaccine data (orange line) with the mortality data (blue line).to conclude that for The Philippines (and all the other 16 countries) the vaccines were a major cause of excess mortality and vaccinations were not beneficial.
However if we look at the Philippine's much delayed vaccine roll out in 2021 in Our World:


A slow roll out. Only reached 50% coverage in November 2021.

SS tries to distract from that by mentioning the small number of early vaccine doses given to some in the government and military. So is it obvious that there is a temporal vaccination?

The main author is a PhD physicist, sacked a few years ago from the University of Ontario. He seems to have become part of the Canadian anti vaxxer movement and has already published on covid topics.

The paper is not in a reputable journal, not peer reviewed. So because of all that I think not at all reliable.

For more details see SS newsletter September 21.
https://supersally.substack.com/



I am doubtful if the Japanese study which Dr Campbell features as the centre piece in this
video is of any great merit. Small numbers and retrospective rather than prospective,
Not peer reviewed. Vitamin D levels not measured at the beginning of admission,
Dr Campbell has vitamin D as one of campaigning issues.
At least this is worth a watch for the diagrams showing how it works in the body.
From comments it is obvious a lot of people are taking supplementation, sometimes at high
levels, annoying their doctors, in an attempt to boost their immune systems.
In the past Dr Susan Oliver has pulled up Dr Campbell on his thinking and the science fn vitamin D.
Maybe she won't this time as she is too busy correcting his other videos.
So I would not follow him on this until we see this paper and the other research here
looked at by scientists and medically qualified doctors.

Raffin

DOH Weekly Covid Report Sep 18-24

There was no report for Sep 11-17 and no daily reports for September 23 and 24.
However we can estimate the case numbers for the missing week from the information given in the latest weekly report.
There was a daily report on yesterday's new cases. A fairly high figure for a Monday at 161. Last Friday at 222.

New cases 1,164 (c 1,030). An increase of c13% (+15%)
10 new serious in hospital (10 2 weeks ago)
260 admitted (276 2 weeks ago)
ICU beds use 14.7% (13.1% 2 weeks ago)
Non ICU beds use 9.7% (15.1% 2 weeks ago)

At September 24 ICU use was at 11.6% and Non ICU 15.2%

Deaths 11
9 September and 2 August

Active cases 2,905

Latest UK ZOE graph:
Self reported covid showing continued rise.



Latest US CDC report with some downturns in early indicators and hospital admissions:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...tatracker-home
As usual

YOU TUBE VIDEOS:


Dr Campbell tries to cast doubt on the safety of mRNA vaccines from this study which shows
trace RNA in breast milk. As usual not a revelation. Dr Susan Oliver gives references to previous papers showing the same traces in breast milk and shows his fears about mRNA are unfounded in relation to breast milk and spread into organs in the human body.

Dr Campbell found another way to keep the Excess Deaths pot boiling with some 2023 data from the OECD.
I looked at their UK figures and they seem to follow the ONS data.
Data up to July 2023.


Dr Campbell continued his interest in E Europe with Hungary and Poland, but also
Sweden. Hungary had the second worst covid death rate in Europe but claims a 64%
vaccination coverage. Nearby Bulgaria had a 16% vaccination rate and by far the worst
covid death rate. Interesting comments suggest it was easy in Hungary to get a vaccination
record by paying but not actually getting vaccinated. Also a roughly one third use of less
effective Chinese and perhaps Russian vaccines. Poland had a much better covid death rate
in the lower half of the European table and a 57% vaccination record, Sweden's record
was also in the bottom half of the table but worse than its 3 Nordic neighbours. Along
with a moderately high 74% vaccination coverage.
The video also sees Dr Campbell repeating his usual looks at selective Our World Excess
Deaths charts.
You may also be interested in him talking about the past activity of a certain German
national called August Landmesser. Again claiming there is something unusual about
the excess deaths and asking why the media is not talking about it. They need the courage
of Landmesser he is saying..who was actually dealt with any quite leniently by the Nazis for not saluting. Though persecuted, as many were,.. for marrying a Jewish woman.

Philippines Vaccine Safety

A FOI request about the so far 2,816 deaths following vaccination has been answered by Philippine Pharmacovigilance:

The answers were:

1. Causality assessment percentage?



2. Percentage of causality assessments of concern?



So 1.9% of total cases and 15.3% of them consistent with causal association to vaccination.

You can see more in the latest SS newsletter, today.
https://supersally.substack.com/

For comparison I looked at the UK and US. Did not any see recent data.
By September 2021 in the UK there were 9 deaths confirmed where the vaccine played a part. Five of them where the vaccine was the underlying cause.

For the US there were 4,496 deaths in the first 6 months of Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations.
1.3% of the total serious adverse reports received by the VAERS system.
But none confirmed as caused in any way by the vaccines.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...054-8/fulltext

Two articles of interest about covid effects and new variants:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/23/...earch-suggests

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-66848549issued