julesnye

and it still keep sgoing in the right direction:-


1.00 GBP = 2.77660 NZD

RobClubley

I'm getting me pension transferred sharpish.

SarahB

Keep going!!

jaybirdjan

Hi

would you think it would be better to change cash into NZD and bring that or bring GBP travel chqs and maybe get better rate???

Been advise to bring ausd travel chqs?????

Jan

cypherpunk

Unless you're going to need large lump sums of cash keep your UK credit card and cash card and use NZ ATMs to get cash. Ideally get Nationwide cards as they don't charge for overseas transactions. It's anyone's guess whether the exchange rate will be higher or lower in the short term, but traveller's cheques are an anachronism.

Am Loolah

$2.81

cypherpunk

Weak now, strong later. Unfortunately things rarely work out like that.

It is getting a little worrying now, the rate is changing remarkably quickly (about $2.81 now) and the sharemarket is 9% down from the peak. I think the NZ sharemarket bust and the exchange rate bust are feeding off each other: overseas investors sell shares which sells NZDs which drives the exchange rate down which increases losses for other overseas investors who then sell more shares etc.

On Monday there could be a big step change as $2.5 billion of uridashi and eurokiwi bonds mature; some say the market has priced it in but the rate is changing so rapidly, who knows?

In the medium term the fall in the NZD is going to increase imported inflation (fuel prices, immigrants with more NZDs) which will increase interest rates so there should be some pullback.

FishermansFriend

| agree (with the worrying bit) there seems to be real panic in the market and it's all unravelling very quickly .

I'd imagine some of the carry traders who were playing the yen/$kiwi are getting badly burnt

Kippers

This could also impact big time on the NZ housing market as large sums of money are withdrawn and repatriated to foreign investors. Banks here will probably tighten up lending and lift rates instead of the cut-throat competiton we've had to date.

I take back what I said about central banks inflating money supply with their current action.
It now looks like there is major money destruction going on and central banks are fighting a rear-guard action to prevent the ultimate meltdown.

http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2871#more

follow some of the links in the essay.

Kip

cypherpunk

Yen surges as carry trade unwinds

A dramatic surge in the Japanese yen over recent days has cut off a key source of liquidity for the global asset boom, setting off a panic flight from emerging markets for the first time since the latest turmoil began.
...
Japanese investors and foreign funds borrowing in yen at near zero interest rates have accumulated roughly $1,200bn (£603bn) of unhedged positions outside the country, according to BNP Paribas, much of it in high-yielding markets in East Asia or places as far away Iceland, New Zealand and Brazil.
...
"The banks have stopped lending to hedge funds so they are having to raise money where they can, and that means selling their most liquid assets into a falling market," Mr Redeker said.

The scale of forced portfolio liquidation will become clearer after last night's expiry of the third-quarter deadline for hedge fund redemptions, which must be submitted 45 days in advance. If too many investors rush for the exit at the same time, this August 15 cut-off could prove to be the trigger for another bout of global turmoil.
...
Carsten Valgreen, global strategist at Danske Bank, said emerging markets had been remarkably resilient over the last two weeks but were now an obvious target if the sell-off spreads further.

"As the world's easy liquidity show ends, we're going to find out who did foolish things with that liquidity. In parts of Eastern Europe, we've seen a monster bubble," he said.

"The current account deficit is 25pc of GDP in Latvia and Bulgaria, and 18pc in Romania. These deficits have been widening faster and faster, and ever more is going into housing and spending booms," he said. [NZ current account deficit is about 8-9% of GDP].

minky

2.89

jaybirdjan

Does anyone know we are wanting to bring approx £5000 over with us next week do we have to declare this at customs
Jan

RobClubley

Cash? I think the limit is NZ$10k before you have to declare it. It tells you on the form you have to fil in for customs.

jaybirdjan

We don't know wether to bring GBP traveller chqs or cash yet and looking at exchange rate at mo might be worth waitng as we have been advised by travel agent to bring AUS chq's not GBP

brandn

2.90493 and climbing!