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-   -   GBP crisis...yawn (https://britishexpats.com/forum/new-zealand-83/gbp-crisis-yawn-658599/)

Genesis Mar 9th 2010 8:51 pm

GBP crisis...yawn
 
Its down to 2.13 again. Looks like its going well south for our NZ winter!!!! I am really getting spooked now and am tempted to convince Kate to take a hit on her UK money and get it over (earning some real interest) here to NZ now before it goes south of 2 to 1.

What do the better informed and more fiscally aware of you think?? After taking the loss with Hanover I am begining to think what's another $150k wiped off the kids inheritance?

Dewb09 Mar 9th 2010 9:23 pm

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 
2.13 :scaredhair: also getting seriously worried. We still need to wait for house sale to go through so cant do anything until then. Forecasts are not good either :thumbdown: as we have so much debt

Dewb

alanmacc Mar 9th 2010 9:30 pm

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by Genesis (Post 8407960)
Its down to 2.13 again. Looks like its going well south for our NZ winter!!!! I am really getting spooked now and am tempted to convince Kate to take a hit on her UK money and get it over (earning some real interest) here to NZ now before it goes south of 2 to 1.

What do the better informed and more fiscally aware of you think?? After taking the loss with Hanover I am begining to think what's another $150k wiped off the kids inheritance?

I dont think anybody would be willing to put their head on the line the way the Kiwi is going, we brought our money over when it was 0.38 and we took a hit then, its a hard call to make, good luck

BEVS Mar 9th 2010 10:29 pm

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 
I'm also tempted to take the hit Genesis.

I have a small inheritance coming from my late and lovely ole Dad :wub: and am looking to pay off the mortgage.

Genesis Mar 9th 2010 11:14 pm

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by BEVS (Post 8408237)
I'm also tempted to take the hit Genesis.

I have a small inheritance coming from my late and lovely ole Dad :wub: and am looking to pay off the mortgage.

I am sick of waiting!! It probably will get worse aye?? But then knowing my luck as Kate hits the sell button the GBP will recover and flourish to $2.60!!! Why am I sooooooooooooo unlucky when it comes to money???

For those leaving NZ to emigrate the UK or returning from an emigration gone wibble or simply to do an OE what a wonderful time??

I reckon if if the kiwi gets any stronger you will get kiwis actually realising they COULD afford a life in the Uk and NZ will gradually empty leaving just Kate, myself and the kids here and our 2 cats..all alone. Which would not be nice.:eek:

Hokey-pokey Mar 10th 2010 12:48 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 
Okay I know this sounds weird and a bit Chinese whisperish but... I REALLY do have a cousin working for one of the wealthiest men in the UK ( a very decent individual he is too ).
This chap believes that the UK will have a complete economic collapse before the end of 2010. He told my cuzzy that back in Dec 09.

He is also of the opinion that governments around the world are feeding out false optimistic info to the masses, in order to encourage people to keep spending and hopefully stave off a Depression. Conspiracy theories abound. But this man is no idiot.

Its not an easy time to be making financial decisions. I would spread any financial resources . Funds in different countries, shares in various countries, dont keep money in 1 bank etc. Spread risk.

Genesis Mar 10th 2010 3:09 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by Hokey-pokey (Post 8408548)
Okay I know this sounds weird and a bit Chinese whisperish but... I REALLY do have a cousin working for one of the wealthiest men in the UK ( a very decent individual he is too ).
This chap believes that the UK will have a complete economic collapse before the end of 2010. He told my cuzzy that back in Dec 09.

He is also of the opinion that governments around the world are feeding out false optimistic info to the masses, in order to encourage people to keep spending and hopefully stave off a Depression. Conspiracy theories abound. But this man is no idiot.

Its not an easy time to be making financial decisions. I would spread any financial resources . Funds in different countries, shares in various countries, dont keep money in 1 bank etc. Spread risk.

Bit difficult spreading risk in the UK when you are no longer resident..only option is to go offshore. As someone said maybe now is NOT the best time to be selling your GBP large when its never been so low. Ofcourse it could get lower but then again it might not. I would like to bring some of our GBP over now to spread risk..even at these shitty rates..however Kate wants to stand steady and hold her nerve. If I sold we all know the GBP will rise sharply aye??:eek:

Genesis Mar 10th 2010 3:11 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by Genesis (Post 8407960)
Its down to 2.13 again. Looks like its going well south for our NZ winter!!!! I am really getting spooked now and am tempted to convince Kate to take a hit on her UK money and get it over (earning some real interest) here to NZ now before it goes south of 2 to 1.

What do the better informed and more fiscally aware of you think?? After taking the loss with Hanover I am begining to think what's another $150k wiped off the kids inheritance?

Just a shade under $2.12 now..by breakfast time should be down to a nice round $2. As for the end of the week??? Maybe its time to kiss goodbye to every penny we have before it gets to 1 to 1.

Jan n Neil Mar 10th 2010 3:16 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 
I would love to meet Mr Brown shake his hand and tell him what a good job he has made of the economy, Unfortunatly i can,t I would just like to stab him
Harsh but fair i think,

Neil

Genesis Mar 10th 2010 3:56 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by Jan n Neil (Post 8408790)
I would love to meet Mr Brown shake his hand and tell him what a good job he has made of the economy, Unfortunatly i can,t I would just like to stab him
Harsh but fair i think,

Neil

Kate's just done a google and Visa said in Nov 2009 that the GBP would be back to C$2.50 come the next few months. So who do we believe? i can't see it spiking to that level in the next 12 months. We are all doomed. Unless of course you are doing the exchange the other way. In that case one is minted.

zoglet Mar 10th 2010 7:34 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 
$2.11 !!!!! :( Thats the lowest Iv seen it!

Genesis Mar 10th 2010 7:58 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by zoglet (Post 8409165)
$2.11 !!!!! :( Thats the lowest Iv seen it!

What's to do? We don't need the money in NZ now BUT we can at best get a measly 3% over there whereas in NZ we could get almost double that and not have it tied up for yonks. 50k GBP at $2.10 is 105k. At $2.50 its 125k.

15k more if we could get $2.50 in say 1 year.

Pre tax (at a $2.1 exchange rate) 3% gives you $3150 a year. 6% would be $6300 a year. Point is it takes the $15k hit above down to just under $12k.

What would you do? Change some now and spread the risk or wait hope and pray the kiwi devalues in the next 3 months and the conservatives have a landslide victory OR just wait till hell freezes over?

zoglet Mar 10th 2010 8:17 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 
Spreading the risk is definitely advisable, but taking a hit is always gonna hurt. If you can hang in till after the election in the UK, there is some possibility that the pound will strengthen.

Fingers crossed!:fingerscrossed:

cleverchap Mar 10th 2010 9:33 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by zoglet (Post 8409257)
If you can hang in till after the election in the UK, there is some possibility that the pound will strengthen.

And if its a hung parliment we're all done for:ohmy:

simonsi Mar 10th 2010 9:42 am

Re: GBP crisis...yawn
 

Originally Posted by Genesis (Post 8409222)
...wait hope and pray the kiwi devalues in the next 3 months and the conservatives have a landslide victory OR just wait till hell freezes over?

My 2c

This isn´t about the strength of the Kiwi, its about the weakness of the pound, I know its all relative but whereas currencies can collapse overnight it generally takes a long time to build genuine strength. On that basis I would say the risk is heavily on the downside for the pound (relative to anything) for the next 12mths. The Kiwi seems stable so I don´t believe that will devalue anytime soon - they haven´t got the deficit problem that the UK has for instance AFAIK.

On the election, well there is a good chance that even if the Cons have a landslide in the election Big Dave just finds out how huge the deficit problem REALLY is and the UK still has to take the consequences whoever gets in power...and if hung then everyone will get the same info and be falling over themselves to blame the others for the problem....so I don´t see much upside coming immediately post-election TBH.

Moving GBP to NZ$ could easily offset the e/r hit with better growth providing that differential is maintained in the (better) interest rate you can achieve in NZ.

Any paper loss/difference over the e/rate movement in the past though really needs to be ignored as you can´t influence it. It is what changes will come over the next months and years you need to look at IMHO as there are decisions you can make which will affect the future growth of your funds from where they are now....

...and yes a hung Parliament gives the worst of all worlds IMHO....


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