W10

I still think there will be a correction. I never ever predicted death and doom.

The problem is that when you have hundreds of people worth countless billions of dollars holding up projects and continuing to buy up whole developments to save them from struggling (much like IPOs) then a delay is inevitable.

And when you make it ludicrously easy to launder 10s of millions of dollars at a time by ploughing *cash* into said developments...

MJC

Cos I was pissed off with Dubai then.

Seriously, no way will there be a crash, I'd love to tell you why but I can't.

expat.brat

Not even a hint? Something official?

MJC

There is no way that the bosses of Dubai will want to stop people from coming here.

Dubai has an Airline, Dubai don't give a **** if it makes money.

Dubai will ensure 20m people get here by 2010.

"nuff said.

TA5

In "The Anatomy of a Housing Bubble" Grace Wong, a professor of real estate at Wharton, offers ways to spot future real estate bubbles in time to introduce corrective measures before the damage takes its toll. Wong's research explores the Hong Kong housing market, which saw a "real increase" in prices of 50% from 1995 to 1997, followed by a "real decrease" of 57% from 1997 to 2002. (Real increases and decreases refer to changes adjusted for inflation.) Transaction volumes, too, rose dramatically from 68,000 in 1995 to more than 172,000 in 1997, but fell to 85,000 the following year.




------Considering that the speculative period in Hong Kong was only 2 years for a 50% increase (and subsequent 57% decrease) in real prices, and dubai's speculative period has been going on for 5-6 years, real decreases well over 60% are possible and probable. Consider as well that dubai's fundamentals are even worse than HK's were.

MJC

But you want it to happen Tom, the fact is, HK didn't have the money D has, and the fact that the the gov want to mkake the place huge.

Believe me, it wont happen.

TA5

And i want to be a billionaire, doesn't mean it is going to happen.

Did you ever for once consider that the government over there isn't god (or allah) and that there is a huge disparity between dreams/desires and reality?

You are right about one thing, HK had alot more money than Doobuy.

MJC

I actually said Doobuy HAS a lot more money than HK!

Septics, can't even read English.....

TA5

No you didn't, you wrote that hong kong didn't have the money dubai does, that doesn't imply anything about magnitude higher or lower. It's called inferral reversal, you inferred a disparity but didn't clarify it, and I reversed it. They teach that in higher english, but as a dubai resident you probably didn't get that far in school...

MJC

Caught!!

Jammy_Dodgers

Guys, Im staying on the fence with this one.
I care not either way as it doesnt affect me, but i must say that Tom and W10 make an excellent tag team!!

shiva

no they aint god, but theve got a shit load more money than him

personally i think a crash should happen, the market needs it to adjust to a realistic level. However I'm starting to consider the fact that they have enough money to ride it out and the will to spend it in doing so.

the really scary and interesting part is that Abu Dhabi is starting to announce Dubai like building plans (logistics city was todays) and if were talking money proping up markets, then Dubai doesnt get a look in, Abu Dhabi (mubadala instead of Dubai holding) really could buy Dubai and in a cash deal.

Just to give you an idea of their reserves, the Nayan family in 1994 (last known figure) was, as a family worth an estimated $370 Billion so god knows what the actual government controls in assets and cash

IndieG

The reason for the delay now is not so much that developers want to choke supply/artificially keep it floating - they simply do not have the funds to start/complete the projects. They've probabaly used up the initial deposits in expensive road shows, promotional campaigns...

The delays were mainly due to extremely poor project management skills (plans kept changing, raw material prices shot up (esp steel and cement)............I don't think there is a conspiracy - but it did help early buyers enormously!

W10

That accounts for some of it, but not all master plan projects...Nakheel short of cash??

Anyway - there will be a correction but MJC is right, and from digging around I hear lots of things which make me think that certain people will spend tens of billions of dollars ensuring that any correction is not disastrous (as pure economics would dictate) and the bubble is artificially maintained.

Fairydust

Bloody hell that must be a first