Eeyore

Just read this on Secret Dubai's blog.

Sample quote (emphasis is mine): "And now a report from investment bank EFG Hermes is in the spotlight, with analysts noting "overbuilding on a heroic scale":

"The report suggested Dubai has a demand for 40,000 to 50,000 residential units per annum. But it failed to make the point observers have added since that only 30 per cent of this demand is in the luxury sector which comprises the majority of construction projects.

"This could leave the real level of annual demand for new high-end properties in Dubai at 15,000 units per annum, which was also suggested by figures forecast in a recent report on the population growth outlook until 2010 from the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry."

How can there be anyone with half a brain left who doesn't believe that a painful property price correction is going to happen sooner rather than later?

expat.brat

Dubai Property Revelations 21:4 And God shall wipe away all tears from the eyes of property investors; and there shall be no more Emaar, neither Nakheel, nor maintenance charges, neither shall there be any more parallel roads: for the former things are passed away.

W10

There will be a correction, but it won't happen quickly. Too many ultra-wealthy investors who don't need to rent their property out.

Also too many people being told to buy...like high ranking officials at DM...and the Palm (allegedly)

Eeyore

Good to know that the market isn't being manipulated to try and make it look more robust than it really is

expat.brat

As an aside, I remember back in 2002/3 being told buying in Dubai real estate was nothing short of a financial suicide and you would only have a patch of sand to show for it once the building structure magically disappears into sand.
Then in 2004 I was told of the upcoming crash in 2005.
Then in 2005 I was told of the upcoming crash, however, it had been delayed to 2006.
Fast forward to 2006, and this apocalypse is one again delayed to 2007.
Spot a trend? What is with the delayed apocalypse? Is the show being run by BA?

W10

No siree bob...nothing dodgy going on here. Everything above board.

I mean, you know, the company building half of Dubai has no shareholders, doesn't declare results and doesn't issue capital and cashflow information.....not to mention banning most newspaper photographers from the fronds of the palm (allegedly)

expat.brat

And thats the key problem.. allegedly.. these stories have always been heard through a friend who heard from a friend..

W10

When I arrived here in 2005 no-one was talking about a crash. In fact, everyone was talking about how they wanted to buy.

On a more logical level, the fact that every single development gets miraculously delayed by at least a year will obviously push the timeframe backwards. Count the developments under construction and announced. Count the number of units that will eventually come on stream, then count the number of those units which are 'luxury', then count what you think dubai's population will be in 10 years time (ludicrous claims of 11m by Emirates Today are not allowed)

The market is being artificially propped up by a combination of billionaire investors and astonishingly (and strategically) late delivery.

But just to take the flipside...every official said the stock market wouldn't crash (whoops), said that the palm wouldn't be late (whoops), said that the traffic problem was controllable (whoops)...hell...even Emaar said the burj wouldn't be late (6 months and counting now), and the police have been closing the net on the Wafi robbers for the past week (whoops)

W10

Or they might be first hand accounts...

expat.brat

Well then, why dont you give me your first hand accounts?

Eeyore

No you weren't. Not that early.

If all the developments that were supposed to be completed by now had been completed by now, the correction would either have happened or been in full swing.

Some people do insist on being blind to the realities. I just don't get it. Don't they teach the basic laws of supply and demand any more?

expat.brat

They do. but to add to that, there is also the principle of those harbouring sour grapes complaining the loudest.

expat.brat

And please explain what you mean by a correction. There is not much point having a debate until we both know exactly what it is we're debating. By correction do you mean 60% price fall on all properties, or just flats in International City, or something else?

W10

You know and I know that I can't really do that. But lets just say that many of the stories I tell have either come from something i've been told directly by someone involved, seen for myself, or have been told directly to someone I trust.

But of the things I posted on this thread:

1, It's a reasonably well known fact in media and property circles that Nakheel won't allow photographers of some newspapers and websites onto the fronds of the palm
2, It isn't even a secret that Nakheel doesn't declare profit/loss/earnings. If it did, it is perfectly logical to assume it would have gone under about a year ago
3, It is also reasonably well known in property circles that some people were 'asked' to buy villas on the palm (but for a large discount)
4, Care to dispute the pure logic part of the argument (numbers of units planned vs demand for high end property vs number of high end buyers vs number of potential residents). Figure that one out and draw your own conclusions. It will be delayed for a good while longer. Doesn't mean it isn't coming.

Just remember...the stock market didn't crash...it is just in the middle of a two year 'correction' which has it hitting new lows every single week. Remember, Air Arabia IPO was massively oversubcribed (thanks for talking me out of that one indiegirl!), its just a shame that more than millions and millions of the shares were bought by government departments after slow business was reported by collecting banks.......

W10

I believe most analysts (as in the people paid to predict this stuff) predict a fall of 30% on apartments, villas will be affected less as most of the units being built are apartment complexes.

Also - I think International City will be ok. It is low end, so demand will remain higher. This is where the money will be in a few years time. (Thats not just me...look at how many low end projects are being launched at the moment). Remember that less than 8% of people in Dubai earn more than Dh20,000 a month.

Incidentally - if it happens it would, in every single financially definable way be - a crash. It's just not called that over here. Just like the DFM falling 65% in 2006 was a 'correction'