Coronavirus

Old Jun 24th 2020, 11:17 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
And there's something else about that too.

Older people not paying taxes or contributing to society? They have already done so, in their working lives, probably more than many of the younger ones who have only worked a fraction of the time. They're still paying purchase and property taxes too.
I once worked out that my annual property tax bill was equivalent to income tax for a renter on something like $45k gross income.

I have a (virtually unemployable) adult stepson living with me. There's this nice catch-22 where he's only going to get a work placement or similar by reason of receiving income assistance, but he can't receive that because he lives in my home. So I (with a bit of help from his grandmother) house and provide for his needs.

But we're not contributing? My aunt fanny we're not.
My nephew seems to be in a similiar situation as your step son with regards to employment. My nephew was born premature with some health issues, he is 20 now but his IQ is closer to a 14 year old, so a 14 year old mind in a 20 year old body, so he really struggles with employment, he tries, but most places send him along after a couple weeks, even good will job placement for disabled sent him on. He gets a small payment from the federal government (US federal government) which amounts to around $545 a month which apparently is supposed to somehow support him, so he will very likely always live with my sister, or one of his siblings when they become adults and my sister is too old or not living anymore.

Sounds like NB is a bit harsh when it comes to assistance, depending on your step sons issues he would very likely at least get social assistance in BC, possibly disability. They may cut the housing portion though if living with family since the government figures family wont charge rent.
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Old Jun 24th 2020, 11:23 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Phase 3 will begin soon in BC, movie theaters, movie/tv production, overnight camp grounds, and leisure travel within the province will once again be allowed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...rgan-1.5625598

I do wonder if some of the movie/TV productions may just decide to film in the US since actors, directors, producers from the US will likely still be subject to the 14 day quarantine I would assume, unless the feds lift that. Not sure if coming to Canada to work in film/TV as a director, actor, producer is considered essential enough to cross? Will be interesting.

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Old Jun 25th 2020, 12:36 am
  #1848  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
I was referring to your reference to knocking out a large amount if the population.

No, what I am saying is that tanking the economy may not be justified to keep elderly, frail citizens alive for a short period of time (assuming that they are likely to die of natural causes in any event). The counter argument, the one you appear to favour, is that keeping those same citizens alive for a period of time, is worth any economic cost. I don't know the answer to that dilemma but I am happy to debate it without making references to the morales of the person debating it.

Of course, the ability of any government to fund the services its citizens require is the ability to raise funds through taxes and to balance those receipts with its expenses. That is difficult to do if its tax base is being decimated while at the same time its expenses are increasing as a result of having to make payments in lieu of wages to a huge numbers of its citizens.

Do you believe that lockdowns should remain until a vaccine is found even if it may take a decade to do so?
I don't think a decade lockdown would be required. The model is lockdown until the number of infections is minimal, and then test, track and trace the the population incessantly as the lockdown eases. What's known is that until a vaccine (or highly effective therapeutic) is available, we are at threat to this virus. I've heard 1-2 years, but whatever it is, a return to normal is not possible. Believe it or not, the virus doesn't care about economics or politics, it simply doesn't.

​​​​​​What amazes me is the media protestations about not being able to go to health spas because we've been locked down so long, and people are going mad. Priorities just seem nonsensical. I have the sense that I'm fifty years historians will look back in disbelief that certain societies were so hell-bent on trivialities that they exposed a far higher number to the virus than was necessary.

It's hard to debate the elderly for GDP trade off without the projections. Obviously, it would be unrealistic to shut the economy for a handful of excess deaths, just as it would be unconscionable to keep it open for hundreds of thousands bexcess deaths. The government must have this analysis, my point is that they should be sharing it.


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Old Jun 25th 2020, 12:49 am
  #1849  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Let's say that the US has a population of 328million and life expectancy is 80 years. As a simple arithmetic exercise, the number of deaths per day on average in the US will be 328million / (80x365), which is 11,233, therefore to date, coronavirus has killed 11.0 days of average deaths in the US. It's barely a drop in the bucket. For Canada with a population of 38 million, the corresponding figure is 6.50 days of average deaths, so not only does the number of deaths barely register as compared to the total population, it hasn't really made much difference to the number of deaths that would have occured anyway. The coronavirus is a tragedy at the personal and family level, but barely registers at a national level.
I'm not getting your arithmetic estimate at all. Population / Expected days living ??? What is that ?

In any case, there are established stats on average deaths per day/week etc, and the most revealing graph is the one that shows the excess of the first wave of the virus. What's evident is that unless it's controlled it's fairly significant (2-3X average weekly deaths in the UK).

Following on from that is the point that AC and I have been discussing, namely the level of "collateral damage" the country should accept. Without data and projections, no easy answers.



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Old Jun 25th 2020, 1:04 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
I'm not getting your arithmetic estimate at all. Population / Expected days living ??? What is that ?

In any case, there are established stats on average deaths per day/week etc, and the most revealing graph is the one that shows the excess of the first wave of the virus. What's evident is that unless it's controlled it's fairly significant (2-3X average weekly deaths in the UK).

Following on from that is the point that AC and I have been discussing, namely the level of "collateral damage" the country should accept. Without data and projections, no easy answers.
The scary average death trend is the one when we adjust from winter to summer time! (IIRC its something like heart attacks in the week post clock change take a 19% hike above average, and drop below average by a similar amount the week we swap onto winter time)

with regards excess deaths - even them figures where somewhat misleading - if I remember the UK ones correctly - 2014/2015 had an excess of deaths over winter of 44,000, put down partly to weaker strains of flu the previous year, and an especially bad flu season. There were several weeks in that season were "flu" deaths exceeded our worst "COVID" weekly totals, both terms are somewhat misleading as a lot of it was assumed due to symptoms, but those with chronic respiratory issues which make up large numbers of both sets of victims will both display multiple flu/covid symptoms normally.

Whilst I'm not a COVID disbeliever, it is a thing and has caused many excess deaths, the question of how many less have died of flu this year, and have we had a couple of mild winters with weak flu strains and less average deaths proceeding this winter is one that is ultimately unanswered.

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Old Jun 25th 2020, 1:18 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Food insecurity is rising in Canada in part due to COVID, in a stats Canada survey 14.8% said they cannot afford to eat properly.

Of Canadians not working due to COVID 3 out 10 can't meet their food needs.Among households with children, between nine and 13 per cent said that:
  • Food didn’t last and there was no money to get more, sometimes or often
  • They couldn’t afford balanced meals, sometimes or often
  • Adults in the household skipped or cut the size of meals
  • They personally were hungry but didn’t eat because they couldn’t afford food

Also not helping is prices of food is climbing.


Stats Canada noted: that groups known to be hard-hit by the corona-virus recession, such as renters and those that can’t work from home, were underrepresented in the survey, so the situation is likely worse than the data shows.

Parliamentary Budget office warns unemployed could hit 15% by end of the year.

Article here.






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Old Jun 25th 2020, 1:22 am
  #1852  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
I'm not getting your arithmetic estimate at all. Population / Expected days living ??? What is that ? ....
Every day people day, as you roll the calender forward by one day, x people die, every day they just do, and the number who die every day in a given area is the number of residents in that area, divided by the number of days that the average person is expected to live, obviously assuming that area in question contains a fair and representative mix of ages from 0 to around 110 years.

It will vary a bit by season, in extreme heat or cold, but on average that formula will give you the number of deaths per day.

If you divide the number of Corona virus deaths but the average number of deaths per day, you'll get some relative measure of how serious a given disease or cause of death is. .... how many days under normal, non-pandemic conditions would it take to have that many deaths. The current answer for the US is 11 days, and 6.5 days for Canada, so Canada has a much lower mortality rate than the US.

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Old Jun 25th 2020, 3:32 am
  #1853  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
The vast majority of those being killed are not earning wages and paying taxes. So your analogy doesn't really work.

Jurisdictions cannot afford to keep paying money to those that can't work while not receiving their taxes. So, if we cannot return to normal until a vaccine is obtained, i don't believe societies will survive. Those that are advocating for such restrictions are not surviving on $2,000 a month.

It seems to me that the idea that the economy can be opened up and will recover is seriously flawed.

Firstly, I think we must accept that some industries are not coming back in the way they existed previously; they either expose employers to liability risks through workplace infection or have been shown to be inefficient by recent events; I think here of people who used to sit at desks in offices. Why would companies pay for office towers now that they know the work gets done anyway? The age of mass transit is over so airlines and tourist resorts are obvious casualties. No sensible person will get on a cruise ship again. Businesses based on commuting such as urban commercial real estate and toll roads are other examples. Businesses that were already becoming outmoded such as bricks and mortar retail will have their decline hastened. Anything involving a work camp such as the tar sands and fruit farms are in trouble.

Cars, at least, can get better, if you're not commuting you don't need a Prius and can have an E-Type instead.


Secondly, I think people will change their habits to reduce risk. Men, possibly also women, do not need professional haircuts. No one needs to go to a spa or a gym; Mr. Johnson and Mr. Trump may say it's now ok to get sweaty and panty with people you don't know but the public might be a bit more sensible. These sorts of business are going to have problems.

Obviously former pilots and the owners of formerly popular lunch spots cannot all live on the taxes of those in portable jobs but they're not going back to generating taxable income either. A slightly adjusted model of society is needed (or just acceptance of widespread poverty).
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Old Jun 25th 2020, 8:11 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Every day people day, as you roll the calender forward by one day, x people die, every day they just do, and the number who die every day in a given area is the number of residents in that area, divided by the number of days that the average person is expected to live, obviously assuming that area in question contains a fair and representative mix of ages from 0 to around 110 years.

.
I'm fine with the relative measure, and agree it provides perspective on the impact of Covid.

What I'm not getting is the death per day calculation. Have you seen it used elsewhere? Can you do another worked example?















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Old Jun 25th 2020, 1:22 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
It seems to me that the idea that the economy can be opened up and will recover is seriously flawed.

Firstly, I think we must accept that some industries are not coming back in the way they existed previously; they either expose employers to liability risks through workplace infection or have been shown to be inefficient by recent events; I think here of people who used to sit at desks in offices. Why would companies pay for office towers now that they know the work gets done anyway? The age of mass transit is over so airlines and tourist resorts are obvious casualties. No sensible person will get on a cruise ship again. Businesses based on commuting such as urban commercial real estate and toll roads are other examples. Businesses that were already becoming outmoded such as bricks and mortar retail will have their decline hastened. Anything involving a work camp such as the tar sands and fruit farms are in trouble.

Cars, at least, can get better, if you're not commuting you don't need a Prius and can have an E-Type instead.


Secondly, I think people will change their habits to reduce risk. Men, possibly also women, do not need professional haircuts. No one needs to go to a spa or a gym; Mr. Johnson and Mr. Trump may say it's now ok to get sweaty and panty with people you don't know but the public might be a bit more sensible. These sorts of business are going to have problems.

Obviously former pilots and the owners of formerly popular lunch spots cannot all live on the taxes of those in portable jobs but they're not going back to generating taxable income either. A slightly adjusted model of society is needed (or just acceptance of widespread poverty).
I agree.

When those office towers close, municipalities are going to have to find another way to raise funds, or lower expenses. The same will apply to all levels of government and it isn't going to be pretty.
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Old Jun 25th 2020, 1:50 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
I'm fine with the relative measure, and agree it provides perspective on the impact of Covid.

What I'm not getting is the death per day calculation. Have you seen it used elsewhere? Can you do another worked example?
I think you're overthinking it, it isn't a maths formula, it a life span observation.

The average person is currently expected to live about 78 years, give or take, I rounded it to 80 years. 80 years is 29,219 days, so, assuming a stable population, every day on average 1 / 29,219 of the population dies, for whatever reason. During a pandemic the death rate exceeds that average death rate, and my observation is that so far coronavirus deaths have only added 11 days "worth" of average deaths in the US and 6½ days in Canada.
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Old Jun 25th 2020, 1:58 pm
  #1857  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
I agree.

When those office towers close, municipalities are going to have to find another way to raise funds, or lower expenses. The same will apply to all levels of government and it isn't going to be pretty.
In the town to which I used to commute parking fees were a major source of revenue. That stream will have dried up and there's no related drop in costs, the costs were negligible, the parking fees were found money to the municipality. I don't know what they're doing to counter that loss but it can't be an uncommon problem.
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Old Jun 25th 2020, 2:51 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
I think you're overthinking it, it isn't a maths formula, it a life span observation.

The average person is currently expected to live about 78 years, give or take, I rounded it to 80 years. 80 years is 29,219 days, so, assuming a stable population, every day on average 1 / 29,219 of the population dies, for whatever reason. During a pandemic the death rate exceeds that average death rate, and my observation is that so far coronavirus deaths have only added 11 days "worth" of average deaths in the US and 6½ days in Canada.
Ok, I get 1 day represents 1/29,219 of an 80 year old's life. But how does that "proportion of life" relate to deaths in the population? (Leaving aside, for now, the age distribution in the population.) What is it that you are calculating with this figure?
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Old Jun 25th 2020, 3:11 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

#bournemouthbeach is trending on Twitter.

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Old Jun 25th 2020, 3:33 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Yep. I saw this earlier this morning. Until people get their heads screwed on the right way about th Covid19 disease and how it is spread I will keep on in isolation. Even if it takes a year, I would rather live than be dead on the beach.

What can we say? Absolutly stupifying it is.

Then over in Brixton 40 cops injured and their cars damaged for answering calls about a crowded throng involved in a music event who were being noisy and violent.

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