Shard

I saw video footage on Sky News yesterday, and although crowded, it didn't look horrendous. Not certain if this is a photo from today, and even if it is, using a telephoto lens has the effect of compressing a crowd far more than in reality. In any case, I too will be keeping well clear of such virus festivals.

dbd33

An unfortunate combination of child care issues and the need to test their eyesight compelled these people to go to the beach.

Pulaski

How many more "days of average deaths" that the pandemic has caused.

If you divide the number of deaths attributed to coronavirus by the daily average and get the answer "365" then the disease would have killed an additional number of people equivalent to an entire year's average number of deaths, i.e. the mortality rate would have doubled compared to normal average mortality in the population, so I think we can agree that would be pretty serious.

As of a couple of days ago, over about three months coronavirus has only cause an additional number of deaths in the US equivalent to about 11 days of normal, average mortality, which over a three month, 90-ish day period, is ball-park about a 12% increase above normal average mortality. Hence my comment that the deaths due to coronavirus are a tragedy at the personal and family level, but barely register at the national level. This is even more true in Canada, where as of a couple of days ago the excess mortality apparently caused by coronavirus, is only about 6½ days of normal average mortality.

Siouxie

scrubbedexpat091

I'd be surprised if the economy ever truly returns to 2019 levels, companies are going to use this time restructure. Westjet is, they announced yesterday they are going to outsource nearly every airport in Canada they serve, only keeping their own employees at Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Toronto. (they already outsourced pre COVID ramp in most of these city's and most others, they never really had in house ramp outside of Calgary) and restructuring their call center, but left off details about that.

A lady I know posted on facebook a month ago about how she was loving her companies new work from home policy and how her company was going to have everyone work from home permanently, little did she know a month later she would be posting about how she and all her co-workers have been given notice they will be laid off in the coming months, as the company is restructuring and moving the Canadian jobs overseas.

How many companies will do that? Why pay someone in Canada, Canadian wages to work from home, when you can pay someone a fraction of the wage somewhere else in the world.

Retailers are also using this opportunity to automate more of their stores, so these retailers will likely need less heads per store.

Fast food seems to be moving towards more automation as well, our local McDonald's has way less people working now that they make you order from a kiosk or an app, probably a good 50% less people working at this particular location now.

Why have 6-10 cashiers all at registers, when you can have 10-12 self check outs, and 1 employee, win for the company.

Sure the automation will create some jobs, but they will likely be higher skilled jobs, and not accessible to people who work in the lower skill jobs being eliminated.


Government better have a plan because I don't think the economy will return to normal anytime soon, BC relies too heavily for example on tourism, all those jobs lost this year wont return this year, there are not enough jobs in other industries to absorb all those who work in tourism. Goodness the airport alone saw something like 17,000 people lose their jobs, most haven't come back yet as flight levels are non-existent, but is there 17,000 low to middle skilled jobs available in the region, doubt it, and that is just 1 work location in Vancouver area.

There is also so much demand for app based jobs like instacart, skip the dishes and such, that some have had to close off new sign ups because there isn't enough work to go around, so these are not viable options for large scale employment either, its not a sign up and work type deal, instacart this week has been dead, so can't rely on such jobs for stable income, we have barely made $40 this week, and was offered no batches yesterday in our area, and today isn't looking much better.

I bet this fall and next spring and fall schools will end up overfilled, people wanting to retrain, some will go to school so they can access funds from loans to survive.

Shard

Ok, if we're dispensing with days life span that's better.

I found this chart on Sky News useful. It suggests UK deaths are typically 15,000 per week. So if we had 60,000 UK excess deaths (Covid + indirect) it implies about 4 weeks of excess mortality during this first wave. We'll see what the next 9 months holds, but I suspect that we'll end up with a much higher figure.

Pulaski

Not dispensing with it, but I have very little confidence in the media when it comes to reporting science and maths issues, so I like to be able to verify a postition or report myself, at least enough to prove that the report is in the right ball park, and the "days life span" method allows me to estimate excess mortality with nothing more than [1] the size of the population, [2] average life expectancy and [3] the number of deaths attributed to corona virus.

Almost Canadian

The link I posted upthread came up with a figure of a month for the UK to date. He then made the comment that, looking at it on an annual basis, it may be much less as some of those that succumbed would have done so by the end of the year in any event.

Stumpylegs

So the UK have released a traffic light system for destinations to travel to, unsure if you have seen it - or if its made Canadian news??

Interesting choice of countries not requiring quarantine - and in addition interesting categorisation between amber and green (Austria and Germany are green, yet Canada and Italy are amber ) - quite unsure what the point of the whole system is - apart from the red countries of course.

But those with no colours - what do they mean? originally i believe the idea was air bridges and reciprocal quarantine exemptions - which made sense providing countries were at a similar low level of infection and restricted travel in similar manners (no use UK and France opening up an air bridge, then France opening up to the US who we are might be closed to - although the UK doesn't seem particularly closed to anyone) - but I'm fairly sure there is no reciprocal with NZ and I don't see them lifting their 14 days quarantine to new arrivals anytime soon)

dave_j

And this is likely to remain the case until a reliable vaccine has been developed.
It's an unfortunate side effect of living in a virus free country that it remains almost uniquely vulnerable in a world saturated with C19.
It's very success ensures that self imposed isolation is essential.

Stumpylegs

Yep and that makes perfect sense, the only place you wouldn't necessarily want to quarantine is another reliably virus free country, with similar restrictions to yours if there was a benefit to doing so.

I just don't get the UK's traffic light system and what it means - although i have since read a news report stating it is little more than where the foreign office things its safe to travel to. but then you've got statements like this (apologies, its from the daily fail) " Green' countries are expected to include Austria, Croatia, Greece and Germany while 'Amber' countries include France, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland and Spain. It is hoped an agreement will be reached with Australia and New Zealand in the coming weeks to add them to the list of 'green' countries."

suggesting that either the UK is making these countries present a case to them to be graded as green (a bit of a strange thing to happen) or suggests there is some sort of agreement between the 2 countries to promote travel between the 2 of them -can see no such thing happening, and personally if i was NZ I'd be saying "you want to go to Britain, you can go by all means, but if you have to come back you need a full hose down and quarantine"

Former Lancastrian

True story and this only pertains to Canada but involves travel and how things can change in a matter of days.
My dad died on the 7th June. At that particular time I had the choice of travelling and self isolating for 14 days on arrival and on return self isolate again for 14 days. Also unsure if I could attend any service so things not looking good.
Between 7 - 15 June the self isolation on arrival was lifted and I could attend a service of not more than 10 but I would still have to self isolate on returning home. On 13 June the Province where I lived was lifting self isolation on 21st June but did not specify where East of where I lived this applied to. Seeing as I was working from home I decided to travel and understood and was prepared to self isolate when returning home. Prior to 21st June the self isolation was lifted and where I attended the service was included in not having to self isolate so on 21 June I drove home.

dbd33

Sorry for your loss.

caretaker

Good shot, all when you needed it, and my condolences.

Former Lancastrian

Thanks to both of you. I got lucky and I know others haven't been able to attend even if living in the same city.