Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

No evidence that EASA regulators have been imbued with the "American Way" but if they have they would be shooting themselves in the foot as many European airlines have a vested interest in the Max's return to service.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Plane Wars... https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-ne...-embraer-deal/

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

This part is amusing: "the Commission is concerned the deal would reduce competition on the commercial airplane market. "

Funny they didn't seem concerned about reduced competition when Airbus reduced competition by taking over the C Series, now known as the A220.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

United doesn't have any 737NG with over 30,000 cycles so none of their aircraft need to be inspected within 7 days. They have 80 with between 22,600 and 29,999 which will be inspected within the required time frame. United doesn't anticipate any schedule disruptions due to the inspections.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Of the 500 NG's inspected so far, 5% were found to have cracks, lowest cycle aircraft found with cracks has 23,600 cycles.

A repair line has been set up in Victorville where Boeing will perform the repairs. The first aircraft to have pickle fork replaced begins on Friday and is expected to take 2-3 weeks for the first aircraft which will also serve as the master for a service bulletin on how to do the repair.

Additional repair lines to be set up in Europe and Asia.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/10/08/bo...pickle-part-2/

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

American removes MAX for their schedule until January 16, 2020 now.

Estimates at least 400 million in reduced profit for 2019 due to grounding.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/reg...K51Hz_kvAymJsQ

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Politics and money won't allow it to happen, but who can argue that the MAX doesn't qualify for a full new airframe recertification.
https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...boeing-737-max
It doesn't seem to have had even a scant review of it's design features. I can't understand how Boeing senior management aren't behind bars let alone still running the company.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Seems in some ways planes might have become too complex for government regulators

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

I hope not, why have government regulators if they're not up to it, might as well sack the lot and take our chances when we choose to fly.
Won't make a difference to the likes of Boeing, they make up the rules as they go along.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Boeing strips CEO of his role as Chairman of the board.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...jNkwJ2-nCvNrEM

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Yet more troubling news: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/18/boei...t-737-max.html

The Federal Aviation Administration said Boeing withheld “concerning” messages from 2016 between employees about a flight-control system implicated in two crashes of the 737 Max, deepening the manufacturer’s crisis over the jets that have been grounded worldwide since March.

A Boeing test pilot complained in one of the messages that a flight control system, known as MCAS, was difficult to control, according to the messages, obtained by NBC News.

If a test pilot found it difficult to control MCAS then there was little hope for the guys in the cockpit of the two that crashed.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Imagine for one second that......
The MAX had now been flying for a few years without incident, how would we have uncovered the bean-counting culture extant within the Boeing psyche and would we have discovered all those whistle-blower risks that Boeing hid under the carpet?
As it is, Boeing have been rescued from future catastrophe by the MAX accidents. It'll cost them and those in charge rightly deserve to be dumped into an oubliette somewhere..
But those unfortunates who died in the MAX should have all of our thanks, their sacrifice has made flying safer for the rest of us.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Boeing and 1 federal agency was aware of those text messages since at least February when Boeing gave them to the Dept of Justice who opened an investigation into the MAX development in February, a month before the 2nd crash. Boeing then spent months trying to get the pilot involved to discuss the meaning of the messages but the pilot and his lawyer both refused.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...nd-misled-faa/

"Boeing has known about the messages for many months. It provided the exchange in February — the month before the second crash in Ethiopia — to the Department of Justice"

"Boeing did not provide the messages to the FAA because the criminal investigation presumably involved dealings between Boeing and FAA over the certification of the jetliner."

The article isn't in English but has a video of a pickle fork being removed from a 737 having it replaced.

https://www.aeroin.net/video-mostra-...oeing-737-gol/

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

I have to say that when I read what it was and what it did I imagined a component that was a little more robust than that.
Just goes to show than any aircraft I designed wouldn't get off the ground.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

If Boeing is proven liable it will be interesting to compare the total cost to Boeing with the $30 billion incurred by VW - bearing in mind that nobody died as a result of "dieselgate".

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

It is probable that many thousands did in fact die.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

And you can lay that solely at VW's door? Seriously?

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

January at the earliest for European regulators, test flights scheduled for mid December.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKBN1X021S

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

I don't think you understand the effects of air pollution on population health. The VW diesel engines (including Audi, Seat and all the other VW daughters were emitting up to 20x as much NO2 as reported following the fake emissions testing they adopted.

Sorry, this is a very long read, but worthwhile if you have the stamina. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...ity-and-health

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

All ICE vehicles pollute, some more than others.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Christ, you read that quickly!

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

I haven't read it - simply because it was offered in support of a contention that is ludicrous (that VW is solely liable for thousands of deaths).

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

The kernel you would discover if you did read it is the WHO estimate that 4.6m people/year die prematurely because of polluted air, mostly from vehicle emissions.

Given the VW group's share of the global market and the fact that their diesel vehicles were, as a result of fraud, emitting 20X as much pollution as allowed by law for several years, I think you might agree that "several thousands" is a conservative estimate.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

VW market share in USA = 3.7%.

I am not suggesting that VW (or others) should be let off the hook, I am suggesting that, if Boeing are found liable, the "punishment" for 346 deaths by direct cause should be proportionally severe.

I guess you feel otherwise.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

No, I don't feel otherwise. I'm just pointing out that VW's $30 billion (which you mentioned as a comparator) was inadequate "proportionally".

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Well if you can do a calculation that demonstrates precisely "death by VW pollution" (as opposed to other ICE makes) then we can arrive at proportional results.

Meanwhile I wait, with bated breath.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

You can breathe out now:

WHO premature deaths due to air pollution estimate 4.6 million /year
Deaths due to NOx pollution global estimate (same source) 2.5 million /yr

Total global NOx annual emissions (all source) = 55 TgN/yr (Teragrams expressed as grams of N) IGPCC.
Contribution from Fossil Fuel Burning = 33 TgN/yr (IGPCC)
Contriibution of diesel and petrol vehicle emissions to total fossil fuel burning = 29% or 9.57 TgN/yr

VW group global market share of LDV (Light Duty Vehicles) 10-15% (2005-2015 average 12%)

Global diesel powered LDV = 27% so 2.6 TgN/yr

VW group contribution of annual diesel NOx emissions = 12% of 2.6 TgN/yr = 0.31 TgN/yr IF those vehicles had been within legal emissions regulations, but they weren't, they were AT LEAST 10X higher emitters of NOx. so in reality VW diesel emissions were > 3 TgN/yr.

Now go back to the 55 Tg Global emissions from all sources and we have VW emitting ~5.4% of the global total per year

5.4% of the premature deaths due to NOx pollution is 108,000.

I'm quite happy to treat that as an upper limit result, largely because I have a laptop not a CRAY on my desk, but I'm certainly sticking to my first estimate of "several thousands".

Your serve.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Advantage Expatrick!

You cannot pin any one (or more) death(s) solely on VW!

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

I just did. Using I admit crude global averages which are never a good idea, but are perfectly good order of magnitude estimation tools.

You don't by any chance drive a pre-2015 VW Golf Diesel do you?.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

I have never even driven, let alone owned a VW.

Novo, your point about ICE pollution is well met - however you are missing my point, my suggestion, about the likely treatment of Boeing, in & by, the USA (in the event of liability being established).

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

And I don't disagree with you, I was merely disturbed by your suggestion that Boeing has behaved more culpably than VW.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

I am quite disturbed by your stance on this (Boeing shareholder?) but ok that's your position.

So let's consider the $2 billion award against Bayer (since reduced) by an American court in favour of 2, just 2, people who used Roundup - & didn't die.

Maybe Boeing (if found liable) should be fined $ 692 billion - or more?

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Glad I kept out of this one.. Nearly dipped my toe in the quagmire but knew it would be bitten off.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

And if any of the cases against Boeing end up in court in the US, Boeing will likely face punitive damages awarded by a jury. Boeing has thus far seemed willing to settle with families, so its wait and see if any of the cases make it to jury trial in the US.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

An article on the 737 and Southwest, they are the worlds largest operator of 737 series and I believe also the largest operator of the MAX currently.

Also touches a bit on why airlines can't just go to Airbus, with a large back-order of it's own there is a several year long wait before deliveries would happen.

American Airlines estimates a per day cost of $50,000 per MAX grounding in lost revenue and efficiencies, Southwest is closer to $67,000 per day per aircraft.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/...st-maintenance

Final report of Lion Air crash is due out Friday, this article hints at some of the findings.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...064944012.html

Mechanical and design issues contributed to the accident.

Other contributing factors included Deficiencies in the crews communications and manual control of the aircraft, with the deficiencies having been identified during training, along with incorrect assumptions on how MCAS functioned and how pilots would react.

Boeing reported a profit for the 3rd quarter although revenues were down 21%. The commercial unit reported a loss, with most profits coming from Space and Defense.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/busin...max/index.html

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes has been ousted. He took on the job in 2016.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...ster-to-leave/

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Southwest Airlines board of directors at the CEO's suggestion will study if they will keep Boeing as its sole supplier of aircraft. Southwest has for most of its existence only operated the 737 series aircraft.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/24/busin...ier/index.html

This announcement could also simply be a bargaining chip to get a better settlement with Boeing.

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

Final Report is out for Lion Air accident last year (pdf link to final report, its over 300 pages.)

Looks like they found 9 factors that contributed to the accident.

"From what we know, there are nine things that contributed to this accident," Indonesian air accident investigator Nurcahyo Utomo told reporters at a news conference.

"If one of the nine hadn't occurred, maybe the accident wouldn't have occurred."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50177788

The US based maintenance company who who performed maintenance on the sensor that is listed as a contributing factor to the accident has had its repair certification revoked by the FAA.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-x...-idUSKBN1X41OB

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

A long article but well worth a read -

Here

Re: Boeing 737 Max 8
 

An interesting phenomenon has arisen out of the MAX groundings.
"Canada’s two largest airlines reported solid results for their busiest summer season despite lower capacity and extra costs from the grounded Boeing 737 Max jets"
Apparently, higher prices and higher seat usage has resulted in good financial results and reduced competition.
It's not rocket science, it's simply supply and demand. The MAX grounding is a event that hit all airlines at the same time and the act of reducing capacity is not something an airline would have considered on it's own.
Releasing MAX's back into the air will do the opposite. All of these aircraft, currently stockpiled, will enter service over a relatively short period and older 737s will likely be retired but businesses, being what they are, will attempt to maximise revenue where they can and where there'll be a reluctance, initially, for some to fly on the MAX older 737s might be retained.
It'll be interesting to see whether airlines manage this cooperatively or whether it'll be dog eat dog as usual.