Road to a Grecian turn?
Jul 15th 2015, 10:10 am
#781
Dunroaming back in UK
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Posts: 11,298
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Ami I generally agree with just about everything you post - which may not be a comfort as I am sure some think I am barking mad
But I did not at the time and do not now think it appropriate to use such a large percentage of comparatively scarce resources to bail out part of the largest and richest currency union in the world. Were I Botswana or Ghana or anywhere else in the developping world I would be almighty p*ssed off.
I do not believe the IMF has ever been a subordinate partner in such an exercise before. It was probably illegal under the IMFs own rules and the size of the loan to a small economy is unprecedented.This was all to do with DSKs political ambitions.
When Lagarde was appointed I really thought she might sort this mess out. That she has not, but has actually deepened IMF involvement, is scandalous. Very real damage has been done to the IMF's credibility and standing, damage that may not be repaired easily.
I suspect the leaks from the IMF are from staffers eager to ensure that Lagarde does not get re-elected next year. She may wish she had agreed to take the Presidency after all.
But I did not at the time and do not now think it appropriate to use such a large percentage of comparatively scarce resources to bail out part of the largest and richest currency union in the world. Were I Botswana or Ghana or anywhere else in the developping world I would be almighty p*ssed off.
I do not believe the IMF has ever been a subordinate partner in such an exercise before. It was probably illegal under the IMFs own rules and the size of the loan to a small economy is unprecedented.This was all to do with DSKs political ambitions.
When Lagarde was appointed I really thought she might sort this mess out. That she has not, but has actually deepened IMF involvement, is scandalous. Very real damage has been done to the IMF's credibility and standing, damage that may not be repaired easily.
I suspect the leaks from the IMF are from staffers eager to ensure that Lagarde does not get re-elected next year. She may wish she had agreed to take the Presidency after all.
I also agree with pretty much everything Ami posts and hope it is wisdom of the masses not collective insanity On another note it looks like Tipsy's biggest problem at the moment could be the Speaker who is from his own party, one Zoe Completelycuckoopoulou, who just said:
"This parliament must not conclude the blackmail by the lenders," Zoe Constantopoulou, a prominent member of the Syriza party's left wing, told deputies ahead of a crucial vote later on Wednesday.
"In full cognizance of how crucial the circumstances are ... I think it the duty of parliament not to let this blackmail materialise."
"creditors must respect parliamentary procedures, objecting to the pressing deadline for the vote. "
"In full cognizance of how crucial the circumstances are ... I think it the duty of parliament not to let this blackmail materialise."
"creditors must respect parliamentary procedures, objecting to the pressing deadline for the vote. "
Jul 15th 2015, 10:30 am
#782
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Good old Zoe, our dogs' namesake ! let's get it over with, dig out the old Drachma thingies, can't believe Veryfukis destroyed them all. In the initial week to make the most of the tourists 1 Drachma can equal 100 Euros !!
So for purely selfish reasons, Come on sort it, people aren't buying houses here because of the uncertainty of the Exchange rates, E/$, E /Kr etc. and I want to sell my house............Another 10.5 hours, C'mon Zoe stir it up.
M the Anti-Euro.
So for purely selfish reasons, Come on sort it, people aren't buying houses here because of the uncertainty of the Exchange rates, E/$, E /Kr etc. and I want to sell my house............Another 10.5 hours, C'mon Zoe stir it up.
M the Anti-Euro.
Last edited by Maybe1day; Jul 15th 2015 at 10:34 am.
Jul 15th 2015, 10:39 am
#783
Banned
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Posts: 19,367
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Ami I generally agree with just about everything you post - which may not be a comfort as I am sure some think I am barking mad . But no I do not think the IMF’s purpose was or is fiscal relief. Especially not as a junior partner. The original charter never envisaged anything like this – the monetary co-operation they keep citing was only by the provision for consultation. The IMF’s purpose is promotion of trade, growth and employment, and the temporary ironing out of fiscal imbalances.
I did not at the time and do not now think it appropriate to use such a large percentage of comparatively scarce resources to bail out part of the largest and richest currency union in the world. Were I Botswana or Ghana or anywhere else in the developing world I would be almighty p*ssed off.
I do not believe the IMF has ever been a subordinate partner in such an exercise before. It was probably illegal under the IMFs own rules and the size of the loan to a small economy is unprecedented. If I remember correctly loans previously were limited to a multiple of the country’s quota. Probably no more than a couple of billion in Greece’s case. This was all to do with DSKs political ambitions.
When Lagarde was appointed I really thought she might sort this mess out. That she has not, but has actually deepened IMF involvement, is scandalous. Very real damage has been done to the IMF's credibility and standing, damage that may not be repaired easily.
I suspect the leaks from the IMF are from staffers eager to ensure that Lagarde does not get re-elected next year. She may wish she had agreed to take the Presidency after all.
Chickens are coming home to roost all over Europe. I just keep coming back to the same thought. How COULD they all have been so stupid?
. But no I do not think the IMF’s purpose was or is fiscal relief. Especially not as a junior partner. The original charter never envisaged anything like this – the monetary co-operation they keep citing was only by the provision for consultation. The IMF’s purpose is promotion of trade, growth and employment, and the temporary ironing out of fiscal imbalances. I did not at the time and do not now think it appropriate to use such a large percentage of comparatively scarce resources to bail out part of the largest and richest currency union in the world. Were I Botswana or Ghana or anywhere else in the developing world I would be almighty p*ssed off.
I do not believe the IMF has ever been a subordinate partner in such an exercise before. It was probably illegal under the IMFs own rules and the size of the loan to a small economy is unprecedented. If I remember correctly loans previously were limited to a multiple of the country’s quota. Probably no more than a couple of billion in Greece’s case. This was all to do with DSKs political ambitions.
When Lagarde was appointed I really thought she might sort this mess out. That she has not, but has actually deepened IMF involvement, is scandalous. Very real damage has been done to the IMF's credibility and standing, damage that may not be repaired easily.
I suspect the leaks from the IMF are from staffers eager to ensure that Lagarde does not get re-elected next year. She may wish she had agreed to take the Presidency after all.
Chickens are coming home to roost all over Europe. I just keep coming back to the same thought. How COULD they all have been so stupid?
I'd argue that before Syriza was voted in, Legarde had good reasons to believe that stability in Greece could be achieved, although she was openly warning her political counterparts of the political risks of draconian austerity. Nonetheless, she put her dollar down and placed a bet...
Then (just as she warned against) the political risks became realities, and a radical, obstinate, extreme political party was voted in. Game changer.
I need not review the last 6 mos, but had Greece somehow miraculously stabilsed, Legarde's reputation could only be on an upward track.
And frankly, I'm not convinced it's been all that damaged. Yet.
We shall see.
And "how could they be so stupid?", well, love is blind...
Last edited by amideislas; Jul 15th 2015 at 10:50 am.
Jul 16th 2015, 9:53 am
#784
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Well the upside is that if her contract is not renewed in 2016, there could be another opening in 2017 where she would (IMO) be far and away the best candidate. And the undoubted damage the IMF has suffered may well work to her advantage in the home of opposition to the evils of Anglo Saxon Capitalism. If France has any money left.
Osborne in the Times today, AEP in the Telegraph and Philippe Legrain in Foreign Policy are an interesting read.
Osborne in the Times today, AEP in the Telegraph and Philippe Legrain in Foreign Policy are an interesting read.
Jul 16th 2015, 10:37 am
#785
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Well they have stuffed themselves yet again! There will be no more Aubergines or mince in the moussakas for a while longer.............
Jul 16th 2015, 5:59 pm
#786
Hostage Negotiator
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 5,173
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Varoufakis was openly booed in the Greek parliament this morning when he voted against the EU reforms, which are a pre-condition to remaining in the Euro zone, many shouting that was all his fault.
Greek hero to geek zero.
Greek hero to geek zero.
Jul 18th 2015, 8:10 pm
#787
Dunroaming back in UK
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Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Jul 18th 2015, 9:12 pm
#788
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
At least Veryfukis understood there was no way to repay the debt. Wipe it or return to the Drachma and cock a snoot at the EU, offering new investment possibilities with reforms and growth at the expense of Europe.
Jul 18th 2015, 9:32 pm
#789
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
To be fair you would have to be a functional innumerate with all the mathematical skills of a half boiled frog to think that Greece could ever repay half what they owe.
It aint over till the fat lady sings.
It aint over till the fat lady sings.
Jul 19th 2015, 7:26 am
#790
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Actually the official Greek GDP has dropped by a third in the last 5 years but there is no reason why this drop cannot be recovered if everyone in Greece is prepared to work hard (which is by no means assured).
Jul 19th 2015, 7:59 am
#791
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Jul 19th 2015, 8:15 am
#792
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I have always loved this definition of an expert.
Someone who knows more and more about less and less until finally they know everything there is to know about nothing.
Someone who knows more and more about less and less until finally they know everything there is to know about nothing.
Jul 19th 2015, 8:31 am
#793
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Or you would have to suspend belief in the statistical information coming out of Greece and on which everyone is relying.
Actually the official Greek GDP has dropped by a third in the last 5 years but there is no reason why this drop cannot be recovered if everyone in Greece is prepared to work hard (which is by no means assured).
Actually the official Greek GDP has dropped by a third in the last 5 years but there is no reason why this drop cannot be recovered if everyone in Greece is prepared to work hard (which is by no means assured).
Greek GDP 2001 pre Euro about $130 billion. 8 years later just shy of $355 billion. Latest probably south of $230. Even that looks highly suspect. In the ten years prior to adopting the Euro, Greece grew between 30 and 40 percent. Average say 3.5 percent a year. How likely is it/was it that Greece could then grow at nearly 30 percent A YEAR!!!! The Eurozone avaerage growth rate from 2000 was about half a percent a year
In addition as everybody knows, Greece was/is corrupt and Greece does/did not pay taxes.
What person with half an ounce of common sense would have lent them anything at all?
The money is gone. It can never be repaid.
Last edited by bigglesworth; Jul 19th 2015 at 8:35 am. Reason: Eu average
Jul 19th 2015, 9:54 am
#794
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Maybe they were not including things in their GDP calculation that the EU said they should (though I doubt prostitution would account for all of this) 
Jul 19th 2015, 10:24 am
#795
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Not sure - it is Greece after all!