Re: Exchange rate
 

I have just received my weekly email from a currency specialist.

Canada romps, Sterling collapses

Sterling collapsed against the Loonie, but so did every other currency. The pound fell steadily from 2.17 to 2.14 over the week and looked to be heading lower as the new week beckoned.

The US Dollar had a relatively good week as fears of a hard landing for the economy waned. The first quarter reporting season is almost over and expectations that profit would be in single figures has been thwarted. Record highs in the Dow Jones seem relentless. The current week should bring strong durable goods orders and more stable housing data.

Unlike the situation to the South there is still no immediate prospect of Canadian interest rates moving lower. The prices of energy and raw materials continue to rise. Manufacturing expanded slightly in February, the economy is growing at a healthy pace. There is the odd fly in the economic ointment. Only one in three industrial sectors reported increase production. Retail sales were relatively flat. Nevertheless, those commodity prices are still helping the Canadian Dollar to hold its head higher than the Greenback - assisted, it must be said, by a rash of M&A activity among foreign investors. The Canadian economy is not being dragged down by the slowdown in the States and neither is the Loonie.

The rise in base rate has failed to elevate the pound. Signs are that the housing market is about to chill. Whether this is because prices have finally reached a peak or because nobody has a clear idea what the introduction of HIPS on the 1st June will do, is open to interpretation. At the end of the week we received news that retail sales in April had been very disappointing. When added to the news from Next that the first two weeks of May had been ‘dire’ it was inevitable that Sterling would fall a little.

The pound has had a sustained fall against the Loonie since the halcyon days of 2.30. Momentum is strong but at 2.1375 the movement looks overdone in the short term. Looks sure to retrace to 2.18 before plunging to last years levels near 2.00.

So what to do?

Take advantage of any upward blip, the momentum is strong and a rout is possible.

Re: Exchange rate
 

Just worked out the difference between 2.32 and 2.13 .

With the funds we will have it amounts to $15,000.:ohmy:

I really wish I hadn't worked it out.

I am now going to find a quiet corner to sulk :sneaky:

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I have lost (well since $2.35) the amount equal to a *brand new* Subaru Impreza WRX :mad:

Do I look bovered? err well yes actually :(

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Oh god... this is going to finish me off!!! $2.00 to the £??? What on earth!!!

Can anything save us from exchange poverty?

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care to share this weeks e-mail, with better news than the last hopefully, thanks rae.

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Bank of Canada rate decision at 2pm London time today... no change expected however if they were to surprise it would be a hike rather than a cut. Obviously, all of us waiting to change sterling into Canadian Dollars are praying for a rate cut.

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Particularly those of us who get paid this Thursday..........

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As soon as it arrives in my inbox I'll post it.
$2.14 at the moment.

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cheers.

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bank of canada unchanged, tilting towards rate hikes possibly as early as july.

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What does that mean for us changing sterling to Canadian dollars? Is it likely to settle at around $2.15 for the next few months?

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i think we see it lower, unfortunately since i have another 2 months until we are in a position to change up....just hope the Bank of England have to be mroe aggressive now the HIP changes have been announced.

CAD$ has moved from 2.14 before Bank of Canada to present rate of 2.12.

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Next BoE Meeting is on 7th June, What is the market thinking will happen, I wonder?

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we have another hike priced in june or july. talk of 50bp last time scared the hell out of the market. I personally expect them to hold off for another month and go in July.

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I can't believe how bad it is right now... we're actually thinking of not transferring all our pounds, getting a bigger mortgage and then paying it off when we get a better rate!!! Is this insane?