The world of automation
#1141
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Personally I think the first widespread acceptance will come via Trucking on the Nullabour between Ceduna and Norseman. That'll take away at least 5 driver shifts per 3 truck convoy, assuming the front truck is manned. Australia could possibly be one of the first places in the world where driverless is a viable proposition in trucking at least. 2020 I give it.
Truckies will be picking the goods up all along the route.
https://inlandrail.artc.com.au
Inland Rail will help reduce congestion on our highways and allow for increased passenger rail services in the busy Sydney network.
#1142
Re: The world of automation
Personally I think the first widespread acceptance will come via Trucking on the Nullabour between Ceduna and Norseman. That'll take away at least 5 driver shifts per 3 truck convoy, assuming the front truck is manned. Australia could possibly be one of the first places in the world where driverless is a viable proposition in trucking at least. 2020 I give it.
However, it seems the city taxi service is their prime focus. You could see Google doing all of Phoenix in 2018, followed by most of the US cities in 2019, with GM close behind and Uber running to catch up. Roll them out as 'test services' (aka beta release) and before you know where you are there is a country wide autonomous service without anyone being aware of it.
The more I think about it, the more I think they are being sneaky in 'doing a beta' to get acceptance without the razz of a full 'launch'. By the time we get to 2021 and the supposed official launch, they would just be taking down the 'beta' label on something that already existed. Any issues and it's just 'still in testing'.
#1143
Re: The world of automation
This is what GM plans to roll out on 2019, cat 5 automation, no wheel.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/g...g-wheel-2018-1
#1144
Re: The world of automation
https://static.businessinsider.com/i...b461e-1200.jpg
This is what GM plans to roll out on 2019, cat 5 automation, no wheel.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/g...g-wheel-2018-1
This is what GM plans to roll out on 2019, cat 5 automation, no wheel.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/g...g-wheel-2018-1
#1145
Re: The world of automation
Yep, everyone has been pulling in their timeframes from 2021 - which means assuming they are late, we'll still likely see it by the early 2020s.
Reason is, of course, they can smell the money in it, and they want to be sexy on the stock market again. Selling transportation services means the potential to get 10x as much profit out of each vehicle they make, in the midst of an upheaval that reshape the industry, and probably other industries too.
Sure beats having new ways cup holders can fold out.
However, governments aren't ready, passengers aren't ready, finance types aren't ready - and the clock is ticking down.
Reason is, of course, they can smell the money in it, and they want to be sexy on the stock market again. Selling transportation services means the potential to get 10x as much profit out of each vehicle they make, in the midst of an upheaval that reshape the industry, and probably other industries too.
Sure beats having new ways cup holders can fold out.
However, governments aren't ready, passengers aren't ready, finance types aren't ready - and the clock is ticking down.
#1146
Re: The world of automation
Yep, everyone has been pulling in their timeframes from 2021 - which means assuming they are late, we'll still likely see it by the early 2020s.
Reason is, of course, they can smell the money in it, and they want to be sexy on the stock market again. Selling transportation services means the potential to get 10x as much profit out of each vehicle they make, in the midst of an upheaval that reshape the industry, and probably other industries too.
Sure beats having new ways cup holders can fold out.
However, governments aren't ready, passengers aren't ready, finance types aren't ready - and the clock is ticking down.
Reason is, of course, they can smell the money in it, and they want to be sexy on the stock market again. Selling transportation services means the potential to get 10x as much profit out of each vehicle they make, in the midst of an upheaval that reshape the industry, and probably other industries too.
Sure beats having new ways cup holders can fold out.
However, governments aren't ready, passengers aren't ready, finance types aren't ready - and the clock is ticking down.
#1147
Re: The world of automation
For me, it will make heavy traffic something almost something to look forward to because it will mean more time to read a book or browse the net or sleep even. Trouble is when everyone gets into driverless there probably won't be traffic jams anymore. It will definitely make heavy traffic far less of a pain in the arse.
#1148
Re: The world of automation
And if you want to realise why Ford and GM are so interested :
Code:
~$30k Earnings for manufacturer on building and selling 1 car vs 5 year vehicle life 20 trips per day (ave) $10 per trip earnings $365k total earnings for the vehicle manufacturer/owner and if you use a robotaxi twice a day $10 x 2 x 365 = $7300 cost vs $8,469 average cost of owning a car per year in 2017
#1149
Re: The world of automation
Are the manufacturers looking at a service model rather than a sales model?
#1150
Re: The world of automation
It's basically why Uber jumped into trying to create their own robotaxi - the manufacturers are likely to say that their vehicles can only be robotaxis with THEM creaming off the profit. Certainly that's what Tesla have sneaked into their T&Cs for the Model 3.
And if one of them gets a patent on a key piece of technology needed to make it all work - then SHTF.
#1151
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
There's quite a bit in it for government too - the death toll on roads costs quite a bit in healthcare. And it won't just be for elderly, etc. - my guess is that two car families will first become one car, and then pretty soon after no car, with the double garage turned into living space.
And if you want to realise why Ford and GM are so interested :
And if you want to realise why Ford and GM are so interested :
Code:
~$30k Earnings for manufacturer on building and selling 1 car vs 5 year vehicle life 20 trips per day (ave) $10 per trip earnings $365k total earnings for the vehicle manufacturer/owner and if you use a robotaxi twice a day $10 x 2 x 365 = $7300 cost vs $8,469 average cost of owning a car per year in 2017
#1152
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
We know governments and infrastructure will be the final hurdle for transport automation.
Interesting to see the NSW government have technology and automation as part of their ports and freight plan.
Its a loooong way off though.
https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/react-feedback/supporting-plans/freight-and-ports-plan/2-8-technology/
Interesting to see the NSW government have technology and automation as part of their ports and freight plan.
Its a loooong way off though.
https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/react-feedback/supporting-plans/freight-and-ports-plan/2-8-technology/
#1153
Re: The world of automation
It's also things like getting rid of tolls.
And there will be junctions that will be difficult for automation that they will need to remake to make them safer.
My guess is that the governments will try to facilitate automation, but unless they hire people with more clue, they will cock it up - it won't be the same old same old. And I expect the multinational companies operating the robotaxies will not be backward in taking them to court where they can demonstrate incompetence that costs them money.
Oh and hook turns are right out. They need to be getting rid of those now.
#1154
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
It's the simple things, like doing road markings properly, making sure they are visible, making sure there up to date information on them that matches reality, keeping the roads in good condition.
It's also things like getting rid of tolls.
And there will be junctions that will be difficult for automation that they will need to remake to make them safer.
My guess is that the governments will try to facilitate automation, but unless they hire people with more clue, they will cock it up - it won't be the same old same old. And I expect the multinational companies operating the robotaxies will not be backward in taking them to court where they can demonstrate incompetence that costs them money.
Oh and hook turns are right out. They need to be getting rid of those now.
It's also things like getting rid of tolls.
And there will be junctions that will be difficult for automation that they will need to remake to make them safer.
My guess is that the governments will try to facilitate automation, but unless they hire people with more clue, they will cock it up - it won't be the same old same old. And I expect the multinational companies operating the robotaxies will not be backward in taking them to court where they can demonstrate incompetence that costs them money.
Oh and hook turns are right out. They need to be getting rid of those now.
We are a loooong way off.
#1155
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/world-first-a-drone-has-been-used-to-rescue-two-swimmers-struggling-in-heavy-surf-20180118-h0kg9m.html
Now does this mean lifeguards are going to be done out of a job?
Now does this mean lifeguards are going to be done out of a job?