Beoz

That's Perth. Not exactly NSW, Vic and QLD. But here's the answer to that.

Truckies will be picking the goods up all along the route.

https://inlandrail.artc.com.au

Inland Rail will help reduce congestion on our highways and allow for increased passenger rail services in the busy Sydney network.

GarryP

US has similar routes, so we should expect a similar roll out. Certainly I'd bet Tesla will be on it. Replace amphetamines with optical processing.

However, it seems the city taxi service is their prime focus. You could see Google doing all of Phoenix in 2018, followed by most of the US cities in 2019, with GM close behind and Uber running to catch up. Roll them out as 'test services' (aka beta release) and before you know where you are there is a country wide autonomous service without anyone being aware of it.

The more I think about it, the more I think they are being sneaky in 'doing a beta' to get acceptance without the razz of a full 'launch'. By the time we get to 2021 and the supposed official launch, they would just be taking down the 'beta' label on something that already existed. Any issues and it's just 'still in testing'.

GarryP

This is what GM plans to roll out on 2019, cat 5 automation, no wheel.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/g...g-wheel-2018-1

Shard

Crikey! It's coming quick.

GarryP

Yep, everyone has been pulling in their timeframes from 2021 - which means assuming they are late, we'll still likely see it by the early 2020s.

Reason is, of course, they can smell the money in it, and they want to be sexy on the stock market again. Selling transportation services means the potential to get 10x as much profit out of each vehicle they make, in the midst of an upheaval that reshape the industry, and probably other industries too.

Sure beats having new ways cup holders can fold out.

However, governments aren't ready, passengers aren't ready, finance types aren't ready - and the clock is ticking down.

Shard

Good point. I guess the industry will push government, and we consumers will do what we are told! Remember when iPad came out and some people saw it as a flash in the pan. Automated Vehicles will make great sense for the elderly and for shuttles etc..

ozzieeagle

For me, it will make heavy traffic something almost something to look forward to because it will mean more time to read a book or browse the net or sleep even. Trouble is when everyone gets into driverless there probably won't be traffic jams anymore. It will definitely make heavy traffic far less of a pain in the arse.

GarryP

There's quite a bit in it for government too - the death toll on roads costs quite a bit in healthcare. And it won't just be for elderly, etc. - my guess is that two car families will first become one car, and then pretty soon after no car, with the double garage turned into living space.

And if you want to realise why Ford and GM are so interested :

Shard

Are the manufacturers looking at a service model rather than a sales model?

GarryP

Yep, you can see why from those numbers. I'm sure they will sell over priced vehicles for those that want them though.

It's basically why Uber jumped into trying to create their own robotaxi - the manufacturers are likely to say that their vehicles can only be robotaxis with THEM creaming off the profit. Certainly that's what Tesla have sneaked into their T&Cs for the Model 3.

And if one of them gets a patent on a key piece of technology needed to make it all work - then SHTF.

Beoz

Ah. Recurring revenue. Smart .... very smart.

Beoz

We know governments and infrastructure will be the final hurdle for transport automation.

Interesting to see the NSW government have technology and automation as part of their ports and freight plan.

Its a loooong way off though.

https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/react-feedback/supporting-plans/freight-and-ports-plan/2-8-technology/

GarryP

It's the simple things, like doing road markings properly, making sure they are visible, making sure there up to date information on them that matches reality, keeping the roads in good condition.

It's also things like getting rid of tolls.

And there will be junctions that will be difficult for automation that they will need to remake to make them safer.

My guess is that the governments will try to facilitate automation, but unless they hire people with more clue, they will cock it up - it won't be the same old same old. And I expect the multinational companies operating the robotaxies will not be backward in taking them to court where they can demonstrate incompetence that costs them money.

Oh and hook turns are right out. They need to be getting rid of those now.

Beoz

They are not simple things nor inexpensive.

We are a loooong way off.

Beoz

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/world-first-a-drone-has-been-used-to-rescue-two-swimmers-struggling-in-heavy-surf-20180118-h0kg9m.html

Now does this mean lifeguards are going to be done out of a job?