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The world of automation

The world of automation

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Old Sep 17th 2017, 3:16 am
  #826  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Don't believe everything you read in the fiction of left wing press. A bit of balance is good.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffrey...g#372f6ffe1365
I wish that you could pass comment on a subject without bringing a left / right argument into everything.

I know that some occupations are more likely to suffer underemployment than others - teaching is one area, where employment is often on a casual basis and you can find yourself underemployed in either category. I personally know a few teachers - one supplements her income working in retail at weekends, and another accepts that she will only likely get a handful of days a month but isn't overly worried as her partner works FT.

I realise that this is anecdotal evidence only, so I looked at government statistics. The picture is a good one, with the rate of employment growth being 2.6 per cent. however, the total number of hours worked only grew by 0.23 per cent. So either people were being overworked, and the increased employment rate is balancing this, or new jobs created are adding to under-employment in terms of hours. The figures were on the ABS website and does not record any sort of underemployment that I could find.

As it happens, I have been surveyed many times on the subject. I was signed up to you gov in the UK, and have taken part in surveys here too. As a sponsored migrant, I had to undertake surveys for the state government, but I also registered with one of the companies here too when we first arrived to give me something to do on top of job hunting. I'm not sure if any information is extracted from census returns but I would think it would be possible.
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 5:34 am
  #827  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by old.sparkles View Post
I wish that you could pass comment on a subject without bringing a left / right argument into everything.
When it comes to politics and macro economics, everything has a left or right-wing bias. There is a centre ground but even that will generally be skewed left or right

Any left-wing bias is nearly always harmful to the economy and society - nature of the beast unfortunately (and yes, there are varying degrees of harm)

Hope this helps
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 6:40 am
  #828  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by old.sparkles View Post
I wish that you could pass comment on a subject without bringing a left / right argument into everything.
Not sure how the impact of automation can be left/right - particularly since journals such as the Economist and the FT were pointing out the looming issue. The only way I can see partisan politics coming into it is most suggest UBI is the answer; and most right wingers think that's socialism.

Originally Posted by old.sparkles View Post
I realise that this is anecdotal evidence only, so I looked at government statistics. The picture is a good one, with the rate of employment growth being 2.6 per cent. however, the total number of hours worked only grew by 0.23 per cent. So either people were being overworked, and the increased employment rate is balancing this, or new jobs created are adding to under-employment in terms of hours. The figures were on the ABS website and does not record any sort of underemployment that I could find.
I tried to point that out, but it bounced off. In classical theory a 2% growing population should mean a >2% growing economy - but that's not what's happening when you look at the figures. The lack of manufacturing etc. already hurts the Melbourne economy, and that's before automation takes hold.

I will point out something I have noticed - jewelers with closing down sales. I'd suggest that's indicative of people without as much disposable income.
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 6:58 am
  #829  
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Default Re: The world of automation

The only thing that affects the cost of labour is the availability of labour. That's it, nothing else. Governments and unions can skew this in the short term but supply/demand will always happen in the long run

Retail is doing it tough in 2017
Disposable incomes are falling
Wage rises are limited
Many retailers are closing or downsizing

Supply/demand equation of labour in play

however

the economy is improving
Jobs are being created
Wages and disposable incomes will inevitably rise
Retail will improve
New retailers will open or existing retailers will expand

Supply/demand equation of labour in play

The cycle repeats

Economics 101
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 7:36 am
  #830  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Amazulu View Post
The only thing that affects the cost of labour is the availability of labour.
Speaking of Economics 101, how about demand for labour?
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 7:44 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Don't believe everything you read in the fiction of left wing press. A bit of balance is good.

s=trending#372f6ffe1365
'Grads in retail' was an example, an easy example, in the context of explaining the difficulty in measuring underployment. The article essentially makes the same point, that measures of underemployment which relate to college degree are unreliable. Any attempt to measure "underemployment" is too subjective to be meaningful. Unlike unemployment, which is fairly straightforward.
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 10:17 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
'Grads in retail' was an example, an easy example, in the context of explaining the difficulty in measuring underployment. The article essentially makes the same point, that measures of underemployment which relate to college degree are unreliable. Any attempt to measure "underemployment" is too subjective to be meaningful. Unlike unemployment, which is fairly straightforward.
Glad we agree.
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 10:21 pm
  #833  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Not sure how the impact of automation can be left/right - particularly since journals such as the Economist and the FT were pointing out the looming issue. The only way I can see partisan politics coming into it is most suggest UBI is the answer; and most right wingers think that's socialism.



I tried to point that out, but it bounced off. In classical theory a 2% growing population should mean a >2% growing economy - but that's not what's happening when you look at the figures. The lack of manufacturing etc. already hurts the Melbourne economy, and that's before automation takes hold.

I will point out something I have noticed - jewelers with closing down sales. I'd suggest that's indicative of people without as much disposable income.
The economy is roughly growing at 2% depending on which stat you look at.

2 and 2 is assuming migration and population growth brings nothing to the table.

Choosing the right migration will ensure growth which is why you don't want a Labor govt in power. Their preferred migration hinders growth because its not the right type of migration.
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 10:43 pm
  #834  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
2 and 2 is assuming migration and population growth brings nothing to the table.
I said ">2%". However reality is it isn't moving at all. And the reason is the lack of a 'jobsngrowth' strategy that makes sense. And that is lacking because both there is no practical action to support real innovation and entrepreneurship; and because government policy doesn't even take cognisance of the fast upcoming impact of automation, let alone prepare. And that in turn is because politicians are the wrong type of person, with an almost total lack of understanding of technology or how the real systems work.

When Putin says the nation that leads in AI will be 'ruler of the world' - shouldn't Australia be going full bore to research and implement AI - so it can be a player rather than a victim? Where are the billions of dollars for AI, rather than a coal rail line or another road?

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Choosing the right migration will ensure growth which is why you don't want a Labor govt in power. Their preferred migration hinders growth because its not the right type of migration.
http://britishexpats.com/forum/barbi.../#post12339719 refers
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 11:04 pm
  #835  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post

When Putin says the nation that leads in AI will be 'ruler of the world' - shouldn't Australia be going full bore to research and implement AI - so it can be a player rather than a victim? Where are the billions of dollars for AI, rather than a coal rail line or another road?
More of us ordinary folk will be employed building a rail line or road, and ordinary folks will see the benifits of both. Will ordinary folks ever see a benifit of AI? Or for that matter driverless cars? I'm going for a no.
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Old Sep 17th 2017, 11:33 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
More of us ordinary folk will be employed building a rail line or road, and ordinary folks will see the benifits of both. Will ordinary folks ever see a benifit of AI? Or for that matter driverless cars? I'm going for a no.
Well that depends on if the politicians plan and implement properly for a world with much greater automation.

See if they did anything useful and realised that automation represents not the continuation of BAU, but a forced step change in society, they could direct it. Down one of the trouser legs of time we have automation taking over many of the rote jobs and roles, allowing for everyone to have a higher standard of living with less boring work taking up their time, therefore more opportunity for self-actualisation. And down the other trouser leg we have people dying in street gutters, a bifurcation of society, whilst billionaires become trillionaires - just prior to being strung up in a revolution.

The difference between them is recognising that capitalism as defined, just isn't working, and will get much worse, and needs replacement NOW.

Meanwhile we have parliament spending inordinately large amounts of time on if two gays should be able to agree a contract, and trying to keep open an obsolete and end of life power station, rather than getting on with replacing it with a better alternative ....
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Old Sep 18th 2017, 12:59 am
  #837  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
I said ">2%". However reality is it isn't moving at all. And the reason is the lack of a 'jobsngrowth' strategy that makes sense.
Is this Garry's high almighty opinion or do you have something to back that up? As I said, growth could be 2%, depending on which data you want to crunch. It might be less than 2%. It might even be less than zero if you can find the right data.

Here's one. Looks to me like things are moving.





Originally Posted by GarryP View Post

And that is lacking because both there is no practical action to support real innovation and entrepreneurship; and because government policy doesn't even take cognisance of the fast upcoming impact of automation, let alone prepare. And that in turn is because politicians are the wrong type of person, with an almost total lack of understanding of technology or how the real systems work.
Here's one which will mess with your socialist leanings.

https://www.ato.gov.au/General/New-l...rate-tax-rate/

And on the brightside, we know that automation creates jobs. Always has, always will.

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
When Putin says the nation that leads in AI will be 'ruler of the world' - shouldn't Australia be going full bore to research and implement AI - so it can be a player rather than a victim? Where are the billions of dollars for AI, rather than a coal rail line or another road?

http://britishexpats.com/forum/barbi.../#post12339719 refers
To be fair, this guy has been ruling the world without much AI. Sounds like he is plotting his own downfall.
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Old Sep 18th 2017, 4:57 am
  #838  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
trying to keep open an obsolete and end of life power station, rather than getting on with replacing it with a better alternative ....
Indeed

Nuclear it is then
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Old Sep 18th 2017, 5:09 am
  #839  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Amazulu View Post
Indeed

Nuclear it is then
Yep, there'll be no birds or fish left if it's all wind farms and hydro-electric dams.
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Old Sep 18th 2017, 5:10 am
  #840  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Speaking of Economics 101, how about demand for labour?
When the demand for labour increases, its cost increases

When the demand for labour decreases, its cost decreases
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