British Expats

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)
-   The Barbie (https://britishexpats.com/forum/barbie-92/)
-   -   Scottish Independence (https://britishexpats.com/forum/barbie-92/scottish-independence-744564/)

GarryP Oct 17th 2012 12:42 pm

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by commonwealth (Post 10334523)
NI should join Scotland!

Independence for Scotland
UK Union for the independent nation of Shetland, Orkneys and Outer Isles.

That would shaft salmond.

Zen10 Oct 17th 2012 6:33 pm

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 10336403)
Independence for Scotland
UK Union for the independent nation of Shetland, Orkneys and Outer Isles.

That would shaft salmond.

Salmond doesn't want independence. It would ruin Scotland and he knows it. He wants concessions out of Westminster, and he knows how to get them as well.

roaringmouse Oct 18th 2012 12:00 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Zen10 (Post 10336758)
Salmond doesn't want independence. It would ruin Scotland and he knows it. He wants concessions out of Westminster, and he knows how to get them as well.

It's going to be one yes/no question on Scotland leaving the union. "Devo max" isn't going to feature in the 2014 referendum.

GarryP Oct 18th 2012 12:54 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Zen10 (Post 10336758)
Salmond doesn't want independence. It would ruin Scotland and he knows it. He wants concessions out of Westminster, and he knows how to get them as well.

  • Salmond wants independence, because Salmond wants power.
  • However Salmond knows the stats say he'll likely lose such a vote.
  • Therefore he has been attempting to get a second option on the ballot.
  • However Cameroon wants Scotland gone, and with it the potential Labour MPs, so devo-max is no good.
  • Therefore there is one option, a straight vote.
  • However, you'll note that both sides have the same aim, albeit with different specifics.
  • Therefore you must expect games to be played, to attempt to force the scots to vote yes.
  • Since Salmond no longer has the option of a devo-max vote, he has to go all out for yes as well - and is likely to coordinate with Cameroon to achieve it.
  • Time will tell if Labour are smart enough to bring the game playing to light, and make Salmond look bad because of it.
  • I'm betting no, and that by the time of the next election, Scotland will no longer have a vote that counts.
  • Cameroon will make sure that Scotland fails as a result - he can't have them end up winning by ditching him.

WestLondonWelshman Oct 18th 2012 8:20 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by ukecadet (Post 10336400)
Independence for Wales and Moby Dick for President.

Dai Iawn!! There was talk of a greater Celtia a few years back. Ireland, Wales and Cornwall lumping in together! The IRA were even smoozing the Meibion glyndwyr fanatics and offering them direct support and training...

Oddly enough jockoland wasn't included...

GarryP Dec 10th 2012 10:18 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 
Oops

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-20664907

That's thrown a size 10 spanner into Salmond's plan. When the president of the EU says you'd have to reapply as a new, external, state; then it's pretty much guaranteed you would.

That means the euro, the financial lack of sovereignty and all the guff that comes with getting forced into accepting the eurocentric viewpoint. Which basically means scotland will have more independence as part of the UK.

About the only thing the SNP can cling to is the idea that the EU would like to diminish the UK in the EU - divide and conquer - and therefore might agree something less onerous. As it is though, it basically makes the referendum a foregone conclusion.

----

Listening to it, its even more clear, there is no debate on the issue. Salmond is screwed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-20666146

Zen10 Dec 10th 2012 10:37 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 10426576)
Oops

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-20664907

That's thrown a size 10 spanner into Salmond's plan. When the president of the EU says you'd have to reapply as a new, external, state; then it's pretty much guaranteed you would.

That means the euro, the financial lack of sovereignty and all the guff that comes with getting forced into accepting the eurocentric viewpoint. Which basically means scotland will have more independence as part of the UK.

About the only thing the SNP can cling to is the idea that the EU would like to diminish the UK in the EU - divide and conquer - and therefore might agree something less onerous. As it is though, it basically makes the referendum a foregone conclusion.

----

Listening to it, its even more clear, there is no debate on the issue. Salmond is screwed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-20666146


I feel the only way Scotland would vote for independence is if the southern English vote to leave the EU.

GarryP Dec 10th 2012 10:41 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Zen10 (Post 10426593)
I feel the only way Scotland would vote for independence is if the southern English vote to leave the EU.

I wonder if Camaroon could arrange it so they have referendum on continued UK membership at a similar time to the scots referendum? Then if the UK voted no, they could say that the UK was breaking away and scotland was the continuity state - grandfathered in with the existing terms.

As it is I don't think Camaroon wants the UK totally out (more at arm's length), which puts the kibosh on that.

Swerv-o Dec 10th 2012 10:44 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 10426596)
I wonder if Camaroon could arrange it so they have referendum on continued UK membership at a similar time to the scots referendum? Then if the UK voted no, they could say that the UK was breaking away and scotland was the continuity state - grandfathered in with the existing terms.

As it is I don't think Camaroon wants the UK totally out (more at arm's length), which puts the kibosh on that.


Would that not mean that England would then have to apply for EU membership?


S

Zen10 Dec 10th 2012 10:51 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 10426596)
I wonder if Camaroon could arrange it so they have referendum on continued UK membership at a similar time to the scots referendum? Then if the UK voted no, they could say that the UK was breaking away and scotland was the continuity state - grandfathered in with the existing terms.

As it is I don't think Camaroon wants the UK totally out (more at arm's length), which puts the kibosh on that.

I don't know about you but I feel we're building towards something, what with the euro in its current state, Scottish independence referendum on the horizon, UKIP rising in salience in various constituencies, etc. Your idea of a tie-in of the two votes could be a possibility - because - I have a feeling DC wants this EU ref business killed off one way or the other before the election in 2015. Why are they releasing so many MPs to talk about it now in 2012? Hague, Johnson, DC himself are all talking about it. Not a coincidence unless it really is a true crisis in the party.

GarryP Dec 10th 2012 10:54 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Swerv-o (Post 10426602)
Would that not mean that England would then have to apply for EU membership?


S

Well, two things.

First, in the hypothetical I present; the UK wouldn't want to be part of the EU, so they effectively hand over their membership card to scotland. Might work, but only a possibility if the UK voted to dump the EU.

Second, the SNP have been trying to push a line that the union of England and scotland was a merger of equals, and that therefore if they break away either both have to renegociate, or neither do.

The statement of barroso effectively puts the kibosh on that too. He explicitly states that the break away element would be 'a third country', whilst the remaining UK would still be members. The SNP can whine and whinge, but he was quite clear on it - and lets be honest, he's got more power to say what happens in the EU than salmond has.

Looks very like the failure of the SNP to get out there and play politics on this has bitten them on the bum - and that the matter has been decided. The scots would now have an uphill battle to convince member governments for a change, with nothing to offer them.

Ouch.

Zen10 Dec 10th 2012 10:57 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 10426609)
Well, two things.

First, in the hypothetical I present; the UK wouldn't want to be part of the EU, so they effectively hand over their membership card to scotland. Might work, but only a possibility if the UK voted to dump the EU.

Second, the SNP have been trying to push a line that the union of England and scotland was a merger of equals, and that therefore if they break away either both have to renegociate, or neither do.

The statement of barroso effectively puts the kibosh on that too. He explicitly states that the break away element would be 'a third country', whilst the remaining UK would still be members. The SNP can whine and whinge, but he was quite clear on it - and lets be honest, he's got more power to say what happens in the EU than salmond has.

Looks very like the failure of the SNP to get out there and play politics on this has bitten them on the bum - and that the matter has been decided. The scots would now have an uphill battle to convince member governments for a change, with nothing to offer them.

Ouch.

This was always ridiculous though and I'm sure someone with Salmond's nous knew it in his heart.

GarryP Dec 10th 2012 10:57 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Zen10 (Post 10426606)
I don't know about you but I feel we're building towards something, what with the euro in its current state, Scottish independence referendum on the horizon, UKIP rising in salience in various constituencies, etc. Your idea of a tie-in of the two votes could be a possibility - because - I have a feeling DC wants this EU ref business killed off one way or the other before the election in 2015. Why are they releasing so many MPs to talk about it now in 2012? Hague, Johnson, DC himself are all talking about it. Not a coincidence unless it really is a true crisis in the party.

Yep, he HAS to spike the UKIP guns before having to face them at the polls.

But he also has to arrange a referendum such that it gives the answer he first thought of.

Never trust a politician.

Swerv-o Dec 10th 2012 10:58 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 10426609)
Well, two things.

First, in the hypothetical I present; the UK wouldn't want to be part of the EU, so they effectively hand over their membership card to scotland. Might work, but only a possibility if the UK voted to dump the EU.

Second, the SNP have been trying to push a line that the union of England and scotland was a merger of equals, and that therefore if they break away either both have to renegociate, or neither do.

The statement of barroso effectively puts the kibosh on that too. He explicitly states that the break away element would be 'a third country', whilst the remaining UK would still be members. The SNP can whine and whinge, but he was quite clear on it - and lets be honest, he's got more power to say what happens in the EU than salmond has.

Looks very like the failure of the SNP to get out there and play politics on this has bitten them on the bum - and that the matter has been decided. The scots would now have an uphill battle to convince member governments for a change, with nothing to offer them.

Ouch.

Yes, particularly as the Spanish have pretty much said that they won't support an independent Scotland shortcutting membership.


S

Zen10 Dec 10th 2012 11:04 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by GarryP (Post 10426613)
Yep, he HAS to spike the UKIP guns before having to face them at the polls.

But he also has to arrange a referendum such that it gives the answer he first thought of.

Never trust a politician.

100%. They're trampling all over them in some polls. Tories can't approach the next election with a "fingers crossed" attitude as far as UKIP is concerned. Not any more.


All times are GMT -12. The time now is 4:19 am.

Powered by vBulletin: ©2000 - 2026, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.