Budget Predictions

Old May 3rd 2013, 9:45 am
  #31  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

The disconnect between house prices and rents in Australia convinces me there will be a fall in property prices. In the last couple of years real prices (adjusted for inflation) have been going sideways at best, but I think they will start to slide. Hard to say exactly when as governments will keep trying to prop them up, but I think it's inevitable.
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Old May 4th 2013, 11:36 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
There's no comparison to be had there!


S
True, hence I'm back in Scotland.

Sunshine is good but it doesn't make up for the overall crapness of nearly everything else.
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Old May 4th 2013, 12:37 pm
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Negative gearing here is a sacred cow. It was removed at the time of the last recession when house prices had a dip. 2 + 2 =5. That's Austrslian politics. The media is too dumb to work it out.
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Old May 4th 2013, 10:25 pm
  #34  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by IvanM View Post
Negative gearing here is a sacred cow. It was removed at the time of the last recession when house prices had a dip. 2 + 2 =5. That's Austrslian politics. The media is too dumb to work it out.
Are we though

overestimating:

The current governments IQ?

underestimating:

How really bad the federal finances are getting?
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Old May 5th 2013, 12:03 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

They must be bad if they are having to do this before an election. What part of revenue has been trashed?
Originally Posted by RedDragon2008 View Post
Are we though

overestimating:

The current governments IQ?

underestimating:

How really bad the federal finances are getting?
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Old May 5th 2013, 1:28 am
  #36  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by RedDragon2008 View Post
Are we though

overestimating:

The current governments IQ?

underestimating:

How really bad the federal finances are getting?
Not that bad in comparison. I don't want my hard earned tax dollars tied up in some governments need to look good surplus.
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Old May 5th 2013, 8:12 am
  #37  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Ending negative gearing will not necessarily push up rental prices by say 30%
Most rental properties are not negatively geared so those landlords will not put prices up overnight and risk loosing good tenants. Research has shown that when it was dropped last time there were not massive price increases. It's an incredibly stupid tax break that has only help increase house prices. That money should be used in health, infrastructure or education.
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Old May 5th 2013, 8:35 am
  #38  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by RedDragon2008 View Post
Are we though

overestimating:

The current governments IQ?

underestimating:

How really bad the federal finances are getting?

They are still managing to find enough money to finance building a new submarine fleet from first principles as opposed to buying proven models from the Germans.

Defence White Paper

This is an absolutely crazy decision - the Germans were offering us a large discount on an advanced model of the Dolphin - A boat that already outperforms the Collins class - and were offering at approximately what the estimates have for a home spun one - < $1bn compared with between $1.5 - $3 bn. So spread over 12 boats, buying off the shelf saves nearly $6bn - almost a full Gonski.

The German U-216

And don't even get me started on the decision to continue with the US JSF project...


S
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Old May 5th 2013, 10:58 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
They are still managing to find enough money to finance building a new submarine fleet from first principles as opposed to buying proven models from the Germans.

Defence White Paper

This is an absolutely crazy decision - the Germans were offering us a large discount on an advanced model of the Dolphin - A boat that already outperforms the Collins class - and were offering at approximately what the estimates have for a home spun one - < $1bn compared with between $1.5 - $3 bn. So spread over 12 boats, buying off the shelf saves nearly $6bn - almost a full Gonski.

The German U-216

And don't even get me started on the decision to continue with the US JSF project...


S

Interesting, thanks for the links. I hadn't been following the sub story. I wonder why they're so keen on designing new ones.
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Old May 5th 2013, 11:26 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Pork barrelling.
Originally Posted by Zen10 View Post
Interesting, thanks for the links. I hadn't been following the sub story. I wonder why they're so keen on designing new ones.
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Old May 5th 2013, 11:49 am
  #41  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
They are still managing to find enough money to finance building a new submarine fleet from first principles as opposed to buying proven models from the Germans.

Defence White Paper

This is an absolutely crazy decision - the Germans were offering us a large discount on an advanced model of the Dolphin - A boat that already outperforms the Collins class - and were offering at approximately what the estimates have for a home spun one - < $1bn compared with between $1.5 - $3 bn. So spread over 12 boats, buying off the shelf saves nearly $6bn - almost a full Gonski.

The German U-216

And don't even get me started on the decision to continue with the US JSF project...


S
Apart from the fact the U216 isn't a "proven model", merely a proposed evolution of an existing German design much like going for an evolved Collins?

Integration issues with the current Mk48 ADCAP and the combat system in the German boats - same issue as with the original Collins.

Given the mission profile for the RAN boats then what is actually required is either nuclear or forward basing. As neither is going to happen you may as well leverage the existing design and support infrastructure.

F-35? Meh, buy more F-18s or Eurofighters.
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Old May 5th 2013, 10:18 pm
  #42  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
They are still managing to find enough money to finance building a new submarine fleet from first principles as opposed to buying proven models from the Germans.

Defence White Paper

This is an absolutely crazy decision - the Germans were offering us a large discount on an advanced model of the Dolphin - A boat that already outperforms the Collins class - and were offering at approximately what the estimates have for a home spun one - < $1bn compared with between $1.5 - $3 bn. So spread over 12 boats, buying off the shelf saves nearly $6bn - almost a full Gonski.

The German U-216

And don't even get me started on the decision to continue with the US JSF project...


S
A crucial part of defending a country is to retain the ability to manufacture armaments. Buying off the shelf is not always a great idea. Agree about the JSF.
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Old May 6th 2013, 12:34 am
  #43  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by ROMFT_WO2RN View Post
Apart from the fact the U216 isn't a "proven model", merely a proposed evolution of an existing German design much like going for an evolved Collins?

Integration issues with the current Mk48 ADCAP and the combat system in the German boats - same issue as with the original Collins.

Given the mission profile for the RAN boats then what is actually required is either nuclear or forward basing. As neither is going to happen you may as well leverage the existing design and support infrastructure.

F-35? Meh, buy more F-18s or Eurofighters.

Not sure I can agree with that - The U-216 is an evolution of the very successful Dolphin that a number of navies have purchased.

It's a double hulled design, so is more survivable, and much quieter, and it also embodies AIP for the diesel electric engine so that it doesn't need to snorkel to feed the engine like the Collins does. Snorkelling is WWII tech really.

In terms of armaments, the U-216 also offers a vertical launch system, which the Collins doesn't/can't. But the crucial point is that of crewing.

But the real challenge for the Collins II is crewing. The U-216 requires a crew of only 33, compared to the 42 for the existing Collins. Crewing has been one of the reasons that the Collins class rarely put to sea - the Navy has been unable to fully crew all of their boats, yet the crew estimation for the Collins II is 58! We can't fully crew the 6 boats we already have.

This is a long read, but it accurately highlights the issues and savings that could be had.

Sailing into deep water

Of course - as you rightly point out - buying Viginia class boats from the US would be the best alternative, but given that Australian governments of all flavours are nuclear adverse, that simply isn't going to happen.

But given that the existing Collins doesn't fit the existing mission profile either, there's no need to throw good money after bad 'just because' - it's just a complete waste of tax payers money.


S
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Old May 6th 2013, 12:38 am
  #44  
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
Of course - as you rightly point out - buying Viginia class boats from the US would be the best alternative, but given that Australian governments of all flavours are nuclear adverse, that simply isn't going to happen.
Australian Governments will never take defence seriously while the US is still dominant in Asia and the Pacific. If China pushes the US out of the region you'll see Canberra get much more serious on the subject.
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Old May 6th 2013, 12:42 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Zen10 View Post
Australian Governments will never take defence seriously while the US is still dominant in Asia and the Pacific. If China pushes the US out of the region you'll see Canberra get much more serious on the subject.

And that's an excuse to waste billions of dollars worth of tax payers money?


S
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