Budget Predictions

Old Apr 30th 2013, 10:47 pm
  #1  
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Default Budget Predictions

Negative Gearing gone?
- Implications on housing market

Removal of 50% allowance for capital gains tax or reduction to 30%/40%?

Increase in land tax?

GST 15%?
Income tax rise?
Payroll tax drop?
Corporation tax?

Cigarettes/Booze?
Gambling?



Your thoughts comments?
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Old May 1st 2013, 12:00 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by RedDragon2008 View Post
Negative Gearing gone?
- Implications on housing market

Removal of 50% allowance for capital gains tax or reduction to 30%/40%?

Increase in land tax?

GST 15%?
Income tax rise?
Payroll tax drop?
Corporation tax?

Cigarettes/Booze?
Gambling?



Your thoughts comments?
I can't imagine labour removing negative gearing again as the net effect is then that rents go up to the levels seen in other countries which has a direct impact on the tenants, many of whom are people who can't afford to buy a house, and probably labour voters......

They did it before in the 1980s with the same result.

If negative gearing was removed rents would go up around 30 - 50%.

Capital gains tax and inheritance tax are in the firing line I reckon BUT watch this space as we may well be about to get a change of government....

BB
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Old May 1st 2013, 12:18 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Increase in medicare levy
more meddling with super
reduction in tax benefits for those who take out private medical insurance
delaying the phasing out of taxes that the introduction of GST was supposed to replace
new levy to pay for disability support


general grabbing of money from non-labour supporters
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Old May 1st 2013, 12:22 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by RedDragon2008 View Post
Negative Gearing gone?
- Implications on housing market - unlikely in an election year, what with the impact on renters
Removal of 50% allowance for capital gains tax or reduction to 30%/40%? - possible, but hardly a positive policy for entrepreneurship
Increase in land tax? - more likely
GST 15%? - when aus retailing is already down for the count?
Income tax rise? - possible, particularly on the higher earnings
Payroll tax drop? - unlikely
Corporation tax? - again, hardly supportive of entrepreneurship
Cigarettes/Booze? - possible, but frankly I think they are on the ragged edge of how much they can overcharge for booze.
Gambling? - very likely
I wonder if they might not move early to an emission trading scheme, with priced permits. They can hide extra revenue earning in there, and it makes abbott's 'I'll repeal the carbon tax' harder to pull off.

I also think they will need to push/support entrepreneurship (rather than attack it) since the resources is going to turn down and they need something to fill the gap (eg reverse dutch disease).

Oh, and end tax free for religions (she's an atheist remember...)
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Old May 1st 2013, 1:51 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

It's a given that they're out in September, so that often affects policy choices, particularly budget issues. Brown is a good example of that in the UK with his borrowing. With only four months left in power before what will probably be at least six years of Abbott, they could do anything without fear of the consequences. It's very rare for an Australian Government to last only one term, so my prediction is the Liberal Party (Coalition, I should say) will be in power until at least 2019, maybe even 2022. Bill Shorten could be Opposition Leader for a long old time.

Last edited by Zen10; May 1st 2013 at 1:56 am.
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Old May 1st 2013, 3:59 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee View Post
I can't imagine labour removing negative gearing again as the net effect is then that rents go up to the levels seen in other countries which has a direct impact on the tenants, many of whom are people who can't afford to buy a house, and probably labour voters......

They did it before in the 1980s with the same result.

If negative gearing was removed rents would go up around 30 - 50%.

Capital gains tax and inheritance tax are in the firing line I reckon BUT watch this space as we may well be about to get a change of government....

BB

What makes you say that? You mean in the short term or in September?


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Old May 1st 2013, 5:00 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
What makes you say that? You mean in the short term or in September?


S
I mean in September.

BB
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Old May 1st 2013, 5:02 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee View Post
I mean in September.

BB

Ah, OK. I thought you were implying that something was about to happen!

I can carry on hoping...


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Old May 1st 2013, 10:40 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Zen10 View Post
It's a given that they're out in September, so that often affects policy choices, particularly budget issues. Brown is a good example of that in the UK with his borrowing. With only four months left in power before what will probably be at least six years of Abbott, they could do anything without fear of the consequences. It's very rare for an Australian Government to last only one term, so my prediction is the Liberal Party (Coalition, I should say) will be in power until at least 2019, maybe even 2022. Bill Shorten could be Opposition Leader for a long old time.
Mmmm, Abbott and the LNP are not ruling out supporting the NDIS levy..........
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Old May 1st 2013, 11:55 am
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by RedDragon2008 View Post
GST 15%?
More like reducing the current $1,000 GST-free allowance on imports. It wouldn't stop people buying from overseas as many things will still be cheaper (considerably in some cases) but the government will get more money - and more closely match other countries with a lower allowance.
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Old May 1st 2013, 12:01 pm
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by roaringmouse View Post
More like reducing the current $1,000 GST-free allowance on imports. It wouldn't stop people buying from overseas as many things will still be cheaper (considerably in some cases) but the government will get more money - and more closely match other countries with a lower allowance.

I thought the productivity commission identified that it would cost as muct to administer as they would make from it?

Surely they need income - not break even schemes...


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Old May 1st 2013, 12:03 pm
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
I thought the productivity commission identified that it would cost as muct to administer as they would make from it?

Surely they need income - not break even schemes...
Probably depends on how it is operated - e.g. if it's collected at time of purchase (with agreements with certain large companies, that are already charging/adding VAT for EU-based customers) or if it is charged once the goods have arrived in the country via Customs.
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Old May 1st 2013, 12:09 pm
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee View Post
I can't imagine labour removing negative gearing again as the net effect is then that rents go up to the levels seen in other countries which has a direct impact on the tenants, many of whom are people who can't afford to buy a house, and probably labour voters......

They did it before in the 1980s with the same result.
Neither can I, but it would be a nice little headache to leave the Libs when they enter power.

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee View Post

If negative gearing was removed rents would go up around 30 - 50%.

BB
Maybe they would, but purchase prices would come down as it takes out the investor buyer.

We'd certainly see some unsettling.
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Old May 1st 2013, 3:11 pm
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee View Post
I can't imagine labour removing negative gearing again as the net effect is then that rents go up to the levels seen in other countries which has a direct impact on the tenants, many of whom are people who can't afford to buy a house, and probably labour voters......

They did it before in the 1980s with the same result.
From what I've read, the only capital cities where rents did noticeably rise were Sydney and Perth, and there were very low vacancy rates at the time in both those cities. No other capital cities saw such rises, which would suggest that the change in negative gearing (it wasn't actually removal of) didn't effect rents in the way suggested.

The change in negative gearing in 1985 was for losses to only be claimed against rental income rather than other income.
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Old May 1st 2013, 3:14 pm
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Default Re: Budget Predictions

Originally Posted by roaringmouse View Post
From what I've read, the only capital cities where rents did noticeably rise were Sydney and Perth, and there were very low vacancy rates at the time in both those cities. No other capital cities saw such rises, which would suggest that the change in negative gearing (it wasn't actually removal of) didn't effect rents in the way suggested.

The change in negative gearing in 1985 was for losses to only be claimed against rental income rather than other income.

Yes, and recent studies have found that housing is still un-affordable, even with negative gearing...


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