Budget Predictions
 

Negative Gearing gone?
- Implications on housing market :sneaky:

Removal of 50% allowance for capital gains tax or reduction to 30%/40%?

Increase in land tax?

GST 15%?
Income tax rise?
Payroll tax drop?
Corporation tax?

Cigarettes/Booze?
Gambling?



Your thoughts comments?

Re: Budget Predictions
 

I can't imagine labour removing negative gearing again as the net effect is then that rents go up to the levels seen in other countries which has a direct impact on the tenants, many of whom are people who can't afford to buy a house, and probably labour voters......

They did it before in the 1980s with the same result.

If negative gearing was removed rents would go up around 30 - 50%.

Capital gains tax and inheritance tax are in the firing line I reckon BUT watch this space as we may well be about to get a change of government....

BB

Re: Budget Predictions
 

Increase in medicare levy
more meddling with super
reduction in tax benefits for those who take out private medical insurance
delaying the phasing out of taxes that the introduction of GST was supposed to replace
new levy to pay for disability support


general grabbing of money from non-labour supporters

Re: Budget Predictions
 

I wonder if they might not move early to an emission trading scheme, with priced permits. They can hide extra revenue earning in there, and it makes abbott's 'I'll repeal the carbon tax' harder to pull off.

I also think they will need to push/support entrepreneurship (rather than attack it) since the resources is going to turn down and they need something to fill the gap (eg reverse dutch disease).

Oh, and end tax free for religions (she's an atheist remember...)

Re: Budget Predictions
 

It's a given that they're out in September, so that often affects policy choices, particularly budget issues. Brown is a good example of that in the UK with his borrowing. With only four months left in power before what will probably be at least six years of Abbott, they could do anything without fear of the consequences. It's very rare for an Australian Government to last only one term, so my prediction is the Liberal Party (Coalition, I should say) will be in power until at least 2019, maybe even 2022. Bill Shorten could be Opposition Leader for a long old time.

Re: Budget Predictions
 

What makes you say that? You mean in the short term or in September?


S

Re: Budget Predictions
 

I mean in September.

BB

Re: Budget Predictions
 

Ah, OK. I thought you were implying that something was about to happen!

I can carry on hoping...


S

Re: Budget Predictions
 

Mmmm, Abbott and the LNP are not ruling out supporting the NDIS levy..........

Re: Budget Predictions
 

More like reducing the current $1,000 GST-free allowance on imports. It wouldn't stop people buying from overseas as many things will still be cheaper (considerably in some cases) but the government will get more money - and more closely match other countries with a lower allowance.

Re: Budget Predictions
 

I thought the productivity commission identified that it would cost as muct to administer as they would make from it?

Surely they need income - not break even schemes...


S

Re: Budget Predictions
 

Probably depends on how it is operated - e.g. if it's collected at time of purchase (with agreements with certain large companies, that are already charging/adding VAT for EU-based customers) or if it is charged once the goods have arrived in the country via Customs.

Re: Budget Predictions
 

Neither can I, but it would be a nice little headache to leave the Libs when they enter power.

Maybe they would, but purchase prices would come down as it takes out the investor buyer.

We'd certainly see some unsettling.

Re: Budget Predictions
 

From what I've read, the only capital cities where rents did noticeably rise were Sydney and Perth, and there were very low vacancy rates at the time in both those cities. No other capital cities saw such rises, which would suggest that the change in negative gearing (it wasn't actually removal of) didn't effect rents in the way suggested.

The change in negative gearing in 1985 was for losses to only be claimed against rental income rather than other income.

Re: Budget Predictions
 

Yes, and recent studies have found that housing is still un-affordable, even with negative gearing...


S