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Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by Steve2009
(Post 9404447)
There are a wide variety of economists with disparate motivations, theories and experiences. Some got it right, some got it wrong and some were paid to say a certain thing. Lumping them all together is a convenient way of sticking your head in the sand.
Economists are great at telling you why the events of yesterday occurred. Pretty useless at predicting the future. Might point out I am an economist. Or trained as one anyway. I also built financial risk systems for banks. |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by slapphead_otool
(Post 9404475)
Might point out I am an economist. Or trained as one anyway. I also built financial risk systems for banks.
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Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by HelenTD
(Post 9402289)
A lot depends on how well people are doing: you two are individuals who have stated that you are earning large amounts of money and live very comfortably, so there is every reason for you to be very happy with your lot in Australia, both, as it happens, in Perth. Others are not in the same position, so their outlook and experiences are very different and they are entitled to express their views. Neither of you have lived here for long and I doubt that you have experienced a downturn in the economy, Australian-style.
I fully understand that other people have different experiences, but I was referring to the OP about 'Oz Falling from high'. From what I have seen, it really isn't. I may not have experienced a downturn in the economy, Australian-style, but I have had the displeasure of being through two in the UK. Australia is a million miles away from the situation in the UK, or Spain, or Greece, or Ireland, or Portugal, etc. Cheer up everyone! |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by slapphead_otool
(Post 9404219)
I might remind readers that the millions of economists in the world today sat back and didn’t see the GFC coming. Economists were also the idiots who thought the Euro common currency was a good idea.
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Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by Steve2009
(Post 9404479)
Do you think we'd be better off without those systems?
That’s a touchy subject with me. When I completed one I got in trouble for telling the bank that I didn’t think it showed them any more of their exposure than they knew before, and they would do better to change processes to make the bank more risk averse. Didn’t go down well. One of the big dangers of electronic risk systems is that they are based upon empirical data, usually via observation of hetroskedasticity. That’s fine as long as the event of the future has occurred in the past, which is seldom the case. Personally, paying bank staff bonuses based upon trade, without inclusion of risk or personal financial involvement in the risk, is fatal. In answer to your question, in my opinion better selection and more reasoned motivation of bank staff would be a better solution than using predictive analytics. |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by slapphead_otool
(Post 9404498)
That’s a touchy subject with me. When I completed one I got in trouble for telling the bank that I didn’t think it showed them any more of their exposure than they knew before, and they would do better to change processes to make the bank more risk averse. Didn’t go down well.
I was going to argue that if there are merits to these systems then perhaps there are merits to looking forward. |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by saintstu
(Post 9404490)
I don't consider myself to be earning large amounts of money and I don't recall stating that either. Most engineers who I place into work are earning 50% more than I do. I do however live comfortably, mainly because I don't spend recklessly.
I fully understand that other people have different experiences, but I was referring to the OP about 'Oz Falling from high'. From what I have seen, it really isn't. I may not have experienced a downturn in the economy, Australian-style, but I have had the displeasure of being through two in the UK. Australia is a million miles away from the situation in the UK, or Spain, or Greece, or Ireland, or Portugal, etc. Cheer up everyone! I have experienced recessions in the UK and Australia. What does everyone think are the best characteristics for weathering bad times: the "no worries" optimist type or the "it will be bad" pessimist type? |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by HelenTD
(Post 9404544)
I have experienced recessions in the UK and Australia. What does everyone think are the best characteristics for weathering bad times: the "no worries" optimist type or the "it will be bad" pessimist type?
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Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by HelenTD
(Post 9404544)
If most of the engineers you place earn 50% more than you do, then it still means that you are on a good income:rolleyes:. It is not always possible to live comfortably, even if recklessness is avoided. Health and education costs can always bowl you over, but there are huge individual experiences of those costs:eek:.
I have experienced recessions in the UK and Australia. What does everyone think are the best characteristics for weathering bad times: the "no worries" optimist type or the "it will be bad" pessimist type? |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by bingobob777
(Post 9404572)
As with most things in life, somewhere in the middle.
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Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by slapphead_otool
(Post 9404475)
Might point out I am an economist. Or trained as one anyway. I also built financial risk systems for banks.
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Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by HelenTD
(Post 9404544)
If most of the engineers you place earn 50% more than you do, then it still means that you are on a good income:rolleyes:. It is not always possible to live comfortably, even if recklessness is avoided. Health and education costs can always bowl you over, but there are huge individual experiences of those costs:eek:.
I have experienced recessions in the UK and Australia. What does everyone think are the best characteristics for weathering bad times: the "no worries" optimist type or the "it will be bad" pessimist type? More billionaires were created during the GFC than ever before in history. |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by Deancm_MKII
(Post 9404644)
When one part of the economy is performing badly, another is performing well.
More billionaires were created during the GFC than ever before in history. |
Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by Amazulu
(Post 9404649)
If you think about it, money is never 'lost', it's just transferred to someone else
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Re: Oz falling from high
Originally Posted by Amazulu
(Post 9404649)
If you think about it, money is never 'lost', it's just transferred to someone else
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