ABCDiamond

Clear Island Waters had dropped by -7% in the last 6 months, although the average rise for the last 10 years has still been about 11.3% pa.

That's OK for the people who bought some time back, but not good for recent buyers, unless they got what they wanted of course.

Kassy

Some of the houses I've been tracking in Balwyn N - the sale prices were well above the estimated prices

E.g.:

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Prop...did=2007587703

Estimate $900,000 - $990,000
Sold for: $1,132,000 (Auction - Sold)

Petals

Good houses always sell and especially if there are unique features and good position. However the housing that is similar in all aspects and estates are similar and a long way from the action will drop I believe.

Houses are not selling. My friend's daughter has a lovely house in Mount Martha and its been on the market for ages and not a nibble. So they either stay or reduce the price.

I am glad I do not have to sell my house at the moment (touch wood)

Have a look at this article
http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...013951,00.html

Geelong Gent

I wonder if people with their fingers crossed property will plumment will in fact be in a position too capitalise on purchase of such property?

If the said plummet is the result of poor economic climate and high unemployment does this not in it self mean they are in the same position as the sellers? Except still needing to afford stamp duty, legal fees and obtaining finance

I agree property is grossly overvalued but I also know there are some grossly stupid people out there buying. Time will tell if they have the luck of the irish or timing of Gordon Brown

Geelong Gent

Kassy

Property like that was selling for around $1500 per square metre so it depends if you are comparing:

$1500 with $1104 ($1132K/1025 sqm) or
$1500 with $965 ($990k/1025sqm)

Homes on our street are still going for $3000 per sqm

Kassy

Aaah, ok, thanks

Is there any site where these per sft prices/movements in prices are published?

Edit: I wouldn't buy in your street - way toooooo expensive for me to get a 700-900 sqm plot!!

Geelong Gent

http://www.james.net.au/ratings/larg...test&formsub=1

Have a look at Mals site. Happy hunting

bourbon-biscuit

I think the real problem with housing affordability is for 'essential service' workers- ie nurses, teachers, police officers etc. I'm not sure I'd 'wish' for housing to plummet because that's friends of mine and family who've bought recently rather shafted (or at least kicking themselves) but we *would* be able to capitalise- I don't see drug and alcohol mental health nurse being laid off any time soon

Geelong Gent

But if it was a macquarie banker or telstra executive you would not feel so bad

Even better an estate agent or politician

IvanM

The drivers are different in those markets and understanding those is key. Some believe house price movements are solely about confidence. The confidence is driven by the fundamentals.

In WA the key has been the resources boom. In QLD resources and population growth have been major drivers. In the wealthier areas of Sydney the financing boom drove up prices whilst outer areas went backwards due to previous overenthusiasm.

The major factor though is that income growth drives house prices when all else is normal and dodgy lending practises and artificial subsidies such as FHOGs and negative gearing are excluded.

ATM I think there will be a mini boom in the bottom market due to the low rates and FHOG. Unemployment will be the teller on how long that will last. Unfortunately such a boom fuelled by exceptionally circumstances cannot last and IMO the ending will be ugly.

IvanM

The interesting thing about the second graph is looking at the effect of the recession of the late eighties and early nineties. We are in an economic decline of far greater acceleration so if history repeats itself the house price fall will be greater.

Catch

Thanks for displaying this graph,dont know if it will represent the whole of Aus but seems applicable to WA

isgraham

Yes huge shortage.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25149947-2,00.html

Catch

Is the housing shortage theory a tool used by the real estate industry to prop up a declining market.I know masses of ppl relocate to SE QLD from other states to retire,and for a lifestyle change etc.Other states which attract ppl due to employment,which is in decline now surely cant be close to a housing shortage as ppl leave due to reduced employment ,WA comes to mind.

isgraham

Yes Estate agentr roll out the housing shortage line regularly both for sales and rental although I have never had problems finding a rental. In fact my old rental unit which has panoramic harbor views is still untennanted since November 2008 hardly the sign of a tight market and I have always been able to negotiate reductions on asking prices. The housing market here is driven by hype an poor tax law and of course a lot of sub prime lending.