If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
Mar 10th 2009, 10:03 am
#151
(It's not my real name)
Joined: Sep 2002
Location: Ilukapool. WA
Posts: 12,467
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
So that means that I'll be paying $400 a week for the next 25 years (I'll be 65 when it finishes). We're on over $100K household income. Rates might drop a bit more but this is about as cheap as it's going to get - and we have to add in all the taxes for the year.
Mar 10th 2009, 10:19 am
#152
Reg. Migration Agent
Joined: Jan 2009
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 319
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
I know I've come to this thread late, but 150 posts in 5 days is unreal.
I couldn't let this statement by scamp1976 go without comment:
Which Australia is he/she living in?
The real one where the rest of us are?
Or the fantasy one talked about by the newspapers trying to scare the sh*t out of people so they keep buying newspapers to find out more?
I couldn't let this statement by scamp1976 go without comment:
people are fleeing the country as work dries up, temps are being sent away , mining boom ended, credit is tightening, shares are plummeting, companies are going bust, unemployment is on the rise etc...
The real one where the rest of us are?
Or the fantasy one talked about by the newspapers trying to scare the sh*t out of people so they keep buying newspapers to find out more?
Mar 10th 2009, 10:28 am
#153
Account Closed
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 495
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
There is something wrong here.
Take us as an example.
We will have at best 100000 GBP from a UK house sale. This is after 13 years - so we aren't FHBs.
So this equates to a deposit of about $200K. Second step homes in Perth are supposedly about $470K - this is about what we're looking at (and some of these are advertised as FHB houses)
So, this means that we will need a mortgage of at least $270K.
At today's historically low rates that means repayments of $400 per week over 25 years.
So that means that I'll be paying $400 a week for the next 25 years (I'll be 65 when it finishes). We're on over $100K household income. Rates might drop a bit more but this is about as cheap as it's going to get - and we have to add in all the taxes for the year.
I don't think that it's as cheap as you might think. And don't forget that this is for an average house in a pretty average suburb about 20kms from the CBD for a family that has been on the housing market for a long time, with a decent family income and a big deposit.
Prices still have a long way to go down - at least in Perth.
Take us as an example.
We will have at best 100000 GBP from a UK house sale. This is after 13 years - so we aren't FHBs.
So this equates to a deposit of about $200K. Second step homes in Perth are supposedly about $470K - this is about what we're looking at (and some of these are advertised as FHB houses)
So, this means that we will need a mortgage of at least $270K.
At today's historically low rates that means repayments of $400 per week over 25 years.
So that means that I'll be paying $400 a week for the next 25 years (I'll be 65 when it finishes). We're on over $100K household income. Rates might drop a bit more but this is about as cheap as it's going to get - and we have to add in all the taxes for the year.
I don't think that it's as cheap as you might think. And don't forget that this is for an average house in a pretty average suburb about 20kms from the CBD for a family that has been on the housing market for a long time, with a decent family income and a big deposit.
Prices still have a long way to go down - at least in Perth.
Mar 10th 2009, 10:44 am
#154
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 95
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
I know I've come to this thread late, but 150 posts in 5 days is unreal.
I couldn't let this statement by scamp1976 go without comment:
Which Australia is he/she living in?
The real one where the rest of us are?
Or the fantasy one talked about by the newspapers trying to scare the sh*t out of people so they keep buying newspapers to find out more?
I couldn't let this statement by scamp1976 go without comment:
Which Australia is he/she living in?
The real one where the rest of us are?
Or the fantasy one talked about by the newspapers trying to scare the sh*t out of people so they keep buying newspapers to find out more?
Mar 10th 2009, 10:53 am
#155
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: Perth
Posts: 3,453
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
good point,We visited Perth on holiday in 2004 when houses had supposed to have levelled off after some "modest growth".On arriving in 2006 prices had doubled due to "booming commodity prices" and "massive employment growth".These factors are disappearing quickly leaving the average perth home very overpriced.Take the $400,000 home in Perth,converted to a£173,000 uk house,in the uk outside the south east this figure will buy a well presented semi or even a detached ,in some reasonable school catchment areas.Yes in AUS you get a 4x2,but when you compare avaliable land in both countries,and you cannot compare perth with the southeast of England.Maybe comparable with a uk northern city.I chose Perth so i could have a smaller mortgage,and time to enjoy the climate,and so my kids could afford to buy a house.
I think that there are major attempts to convince us what the norm actually is.
Have a look at this house and read the description:
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236681706
Two things strike me about this house:
1. They are appealing to the first home buyer at $500K. Does anyone still in the UK believe that a 230k GBP house is first home buyer territory?
2. It's crap
Ozzieeagle - would you buy this?
Mar 10th 2009, 11:23 am
#156
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
And although there are exceptions in the UK, in my experience generally they are of a better build quality there.
I think that there are major attempts to convince us what the norm actually is.
Have a look at this house and read the description:
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236681706
Two things strike me about this house:
1. They are appealing to the first home buyer at $500K. Does anyone still in the UK believe that a 230k GBP house is first home buyer territory?
2. It's crap
Ozzieeagle - would you buy this?
I think that there are major attempts to convince us what the norm actually is.
Have a look at this house and read the description:
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236681706
Two things strike me about this house:
1. They are appealing to the first home buyer at $500K. Does anyone still in the UK believe that a 230k GBP house is first home buyer territory?
2. It's crap
Ozzieeagle - would you buy this?
I was going to ask do they have a 350,000 dollar market in Perth ?
This place caught my eye though, Only because I would want two living areas and a pool if I lived in Perth.
Sub 400,000 .. Whats wrong with it, is it a really bad area ?
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236684255
Not the best looking place on the outside, I've got to admit, but I only had a quick look. That could be fixed up with 5,000 bucks worth of render. I'd use something like this example as a bottom end Bench Mark and try and find something cheaper and better.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Mar 10th 2009 at 11:34 am.
Mar 10th 2009, 12:06 pm
#157
Account Closed
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 495
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
Nope I wouldnt.
I was going to ask do they have a 350,000 dollar market in Perth ?
This place caught my eye though, Only because I would want two living areas and a pool if I lived in Perth.
Sub 400,000 .. Whats wrong with it, is it a really bad area ?
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236684255
Not the best looking place on the outside, I've got to admit, but I only had a quick look. That could be fixed up with 5,000 bucks worth of render. I'd use something like this example as a bottom end Bench Mark and try and find something cheaper and better.
I was going to ask do they have a 350,000 dollar market in Perth ?
This place caught my eye though, Only because I would want two living areas and a pool if I lived in Perth.
Sub 400,000 .. Whats wrong with it, is it a really bad area ?
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236684255
Not the best looking place on the outside, I've got to admit, but I only had a quick look. That could be fixed up with 5,000 bucks worth of render. I'd use something like this example as a bottom end Bench Mark and try and find something cheaper and better.
Mar 10th 2009, 12:59 pm
#158
Account Closed
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 2,375
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
Is dead right ...
$350K is a basic & I mean basic 4 x 2 unfinished on a block smaller than you'd like ... in a suburb that would be 10 minutes further from the city than one that you 'really' wanted ... and by a builder that, let's face it, is including bugger all for the money ...
It's still pricey, make no bones about it.
$350K is a basic & I mean basic 4 x 2 unfinished on a block smaller than you'd like ... in a suburb that would be 10 minutes further from the city than one that you 'really' wanted ... and by a builder that, let's face it, is including bugger all for the money ...
It's still pricey, make no bones about it.
Mar 10th 2009, 2:28 pm
#159
Forum Regular
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: Woodlands, Singapore
Posts: 214
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
good thread ... be listening from the sideline.
Like everyone here, I do dream of owning a home someday, somewhere in Melbourne. Hope by then the property market is within my reach. Cheers
Like everyone here, I do dream of owning a home someday, somewhere in Melbourne. Hope by then the property market is within my reach. Cheers
Mar 10th 2009, 9:42 pm
#160
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
I'm orf to look at this place..... 2k's from the MCG max..... Whoaaa just over 1 k actually.
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236721214
600,000 so they say.... more like 700,000 but only just 700,000 so you never know.
Bloody cheap for the area, thats for sure. I'd say the price is because of Hoddle St, It maybe next to a pub or something.
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236721214
600,000 so they say.... more like 700,000 but only just 700,000 so you never know.
Bloody cheap for the area, thats for sure. I'd say the price is because of Hoddle St, It maybe next to a pub or something.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Mar 10th 2009 at 9:46 pm.
Mar 10th 2009, 11:50 pm
#161
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: Perth
Posts: 3,453
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
Nope I wouldnt.
I was going to ask do they have a 350,000 dollar market in Perth ?
This place caught my eye though, Only because I would want two living areas and a pool if I lived in Perth.
Sub 400,000 .. Whats wrong with it, is it a really bad area ?
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236684255
Not the best looking place on the outside, I've got to admit, but I only had a quick look. That could be fixed up with 5,000 bucks worth of render. I'd use something like this example as a bottom end Bench Mark and try and find something cheaper and better.
I was going to ask do they have a 350,000 dollar market in Perth ?
This place caught my eye though, Only because I would want two living areas and a pool if I lived in Perth.
Sub 400,000 .. Whats wrong with it, is it a really bad area ?
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236684255
Not the best looking place on the outside, I've got to admit, but I only had a quick look. That could be fixed up with 5,000 bucks worth of render. I'd use something like this example as a bottom end Bench Mark and try and find something cheaper and better.
Mar 11th 2009, 12:10 am
#162
Account Closed
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 2,375
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
I'm thinking the property will appeal to the blind ... the bathroom is in braille.
I'm orf to look at this place..... 2k's from the MCG max..... Whoaaa just over 1 k actually.
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236721214
600,000 so they say.... more like 700,000 but only just 700,000 so you never know.
Bloody cheap for the area, thats for sure. I'd say the price is because of Hoddle St, It maybe next to a pub or something.
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1236721214
600,000 so they say.... more like 700,000 but only just 700,000 so you never know.
Bloody cheap for the area, thats for sure. I'd say the price is because of Hoddle St, It maybe next to a pub or something.
Mar 11th 2009, 2:26 am
#163
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,048
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
I've always wondered about the comment that 'because so many immigrants are coming, demand exceeds supply, therefore house prices can't fall'.
They were saying the same in the UK up until recently.
I suppose too it depends how loaded the immigrants actually are. If they are coming over as millionaires then yes perhaps that would keep growth going. However, I would suspect that most immigrants aren't and surely there has to be a point when it doesn't matter how many immigrants are coming - they can't afford anywhere.
Perhaps a better method to track how immigrants are affecting the property market is to look at how the median wage of Australia is changing due to immigration (if it is increasing then perhaps this would justify house prices)
Just a thought that isn't meant to start a slanging match
They were saying the same in the UK up until recently.
I suppose too it depends how loaded the immigrants actually are. If they are coming over as millionaires then yes perhaps that would keep growth going. However, I would suspect that most immigrants aren't and surely there has to be a point when it doesn't matter how many immigrants are coming - they can't afford anywhere.
Perhaps a better method to track how immigrants are affecting the property market is to look at how the median wage of Australia is changing due to immigration (if it is increasing then perhaps this would justify house prices)
Just a thought that isn't meant to start a slanging match
Mar 11th 2009, 2:39 am
#164
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 4,555
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
The budget must be under strain to be considering this.
http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-31037,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-31037,00.html
THE Federal Government won't commit to extending higher grants for first-home buyers beyond the end of June.
The higher grants - part of the Government's first stimulus package - appear to have prompted a surge in housing finance, according to data released today.
Housing finance figures showed home loans to owner occupiers rose by 3.5 per cent in January.
First-time home buyers made up 26.5 per cent of the market.
Last year's stimulus package doubled the first home buyer grant for established homes to $14,000 and tripled it to $21,000 for newly-built dwellings.
The higher grants - part of the Government's first stimulus package - appear to have prompted a surge in housing finance, according to data released today.
Housing finance figures showed home loans to owner occupiers rose by 3.5 per cent in January.
First-time home buyers made up 26.5 per cent of the market.
Last year's stimulus package doubled the first home buyer grant for established homes to $14,000 and tripled it to $21,000 for newly-built dwellings.
Mar 11th 2009, 2:53 am
#165
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 172
Re: If the recession bites do you think housing will plummet?
I've always wondered about the comment that 'because so many immigrants are coming, demand exceeds supply, therefore house prices can't fall'.
They were saying the same in the UK up until recently.
I suppose too it depends how loaded the immigrants actually are. If they are coming over as millionaires then yes perhaps that would keep growth going. However, I would suspect that most immigrants aren't and surely there has to be a point when it doesn't matter how many immigrants are coming - they can't afford anywhere.
Perhaps a better method to track how immigrants are affecting the property market is to look at how the median wage of Australia is changing due to immigration (if it is increasing then perhaps this would justify house prices)
Just a thought that isn't meant to start a slanging match
They were saying the same in the UK up until recently.
I suppose too it depends how loaded the immigrants actually are. If they are coming over as millionaires then yes perhaps that would keep growth going. However, I would suspect that most immigrants aren't and surely there has to be a point when it doesn't matter how many immigrants are coming - they can't afford anywhere.
Perhaps a better method to track how immigrants are affecting the property market is to look at how the median wage of Australia is changing due to immigration (if it is increasing then perhaps this would justify house prices)
Just a thought that isn't meant to start a slanging match
I would be very suprised if the median wage had risen due to immigrants, infact I seem to remember the Government specifically letting more immigrants in to help keep the wages on an even keel in order to keep inflation down. Go figure everything we need rises except wages.
