Ahh but the Central areas are not considered first home buyer territory anymore and haven't been for some time. Except for Apartments.

Suppose some will go up and down - depends totally on the area and the demand for houses

In Sydney that part of the market seems to be sitting still and not moving. That means the pricing is determined by first time buyers and what agents call "bottom feeders".

An interesting stat came out of the US. New house purchases have starting rising because prices have dropped so much.

Looking at those results, I reckon there's a bit of wishful thinking going on - anyone hoping to nab a cheap Aussie property in the near future?!!? lol

I'm wishful too!!

They will fall - particularly at risk in Melbourne are the new build estates (Melton/Craigieburn/Cranbourne etc) and some of the grimmer inner city suburbs (Footscray/Coburg/Kensington/Preston etc) where people realise the druggies/hoons etc are never going to leave and you've paid a lot of money to live next door to the Aussie equivalent of a crack house

It's all about time and location. Up here in the north there are already more sellers than buyers. There are a lot of people offloding "investment" properties since they need to cash up after teh stock market collapse. The biggest issue for the sellers is that there will always be houses for sale: people die, get divorced, change location.. but unless the availability of rental property drops to zero there can be times when no buyers are out there in the market.

A house is only worth what someone will pay for it. And that is particularly true when there are more sellers than buyers. If you are buying right now remember that the asking price is usually 20% above what the owner thinks they'll get and what the owner thinks they'll get is 20% higher than what they'll have to drop to in order to offload the property.

I can't see any house sold at this moment being worth more (adjusted for inflation) in ten years time. Sellers and buyers who don't face the realities of the market are going to be stuffed.

If you are buying now, look at the asking price and offer 60%.

I'm sure I can recall from my days in London, people saying similar things about Shoredtich, Camden, Holloway and Islington.

I think this is good advice, frankly, for both the UK and Aus. 40% off seems quite conservative when you think about what our economies are going to look like in 2010.

I've found a fantastic test for the market in Supposedly Grimey Coburg.

Following is a unique property, listed for Auction at 540,000 to 580,000 Reason it's unique is because of views over parkland and water features. It's well out of first home owners realm.

If the market is going backwards this wont meet it's reserve, even if the market is static, this place will bring the buyers out.

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1225228136

Lets see what happens, with the market in two weeks time after the American election and perhaps with some direction in the Stock market.

Supposedly according to the agents, property is still moving well in this location.

When I saw that shack this song came to mind

"Come 'n listen to my story 'bout a man named Jed
Poor mountaineer barely kept his family fed
An' then one day, he was shootin' at some food,
An' up thru the ground come a bubblin' crude
Oil that is! Black gold! Texas tea"

Are all the houses in Coburg like this?

Pretty much... Well at the starting point. That particular place is North of Bell St

The older ones tend to be more expensive, and the closer you move in even more so. Most still going for Auction... When the Auctions stop, and the Private sales take over, will be the signal for falling prices,

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1225247597

The other effect on house prices which hasn't been mentioned is the Internet. What is stopping buyers, particularly in a market as small as Australia's, from getting together and deciding how much they want to pay?

That would require organisation and discipline unfortunately poeple don't often have those qualities.

Burbage, I think you just found your soulmate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...fer=realestate