Peter

Hallo,

Recently, it struck me how likely it is for an Albanian to win the GC Lottery. It is
about 30%! Are they preferred, or we are witnessing some kind of distortion in the
Probability Theory?

Cheers, Peter

Alexis

where did you get that number? (30%) Where can I get statistics for different
countries?

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Joachim Feise

Alexis wrote:
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[usenetquote2]> > Hallo,[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > Recently, it struck me how likely it is for an Albanian to win the GC Lottery. It[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > is about 30%! Are they preferred, or we are witnessing some kind of distortion in[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > the Probability Theory?[/usenetquote2]

It would be interesting to know how you arrived at this number. For DV-2002,
http://travel.state.gov/dvresults.html shows 2331 "winners" from Albania out of about
90000. That makes less than 3%. Note also that this is the number of people selected,
not the number of people actually getting a GC.

-Joe

Peter Pauper

[usenetquote2]> > > Recently, it struck me how likely it is for an Albanian to win the GC Lottery.[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > It is about 30%! Are they preferred, or we are witnessing some kind of[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > distortion in the Probability Theory?[/usenetquote2]
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To know whether the original poster was correct or mistaken, we'd also need to know
how many people in Albania applied. You and he are making two distinct statements
which are not necessarily incompatible. You're saying 90000 people worldwide won and
of those, less than 3% were Albanian. He's saying about 30% of the Albanians who
applied won, so if "about" 7,770 Albanians applied, he's right.

Peter

Joachim Feise <[email protected]>
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[usenetquote2]> >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > where did you get that number? (30%) Where can I get statistics for different[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > countries?[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> >[/usenetquote2]

[usenetquote2]> > > Hallo,[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > Recently, it struck me how likely it is for an Albanian to win the GC Lottery.[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > It is about 30%! Are they preferred, or we are witnessing some kind of[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > distortion in the Probability Theory?[/usenetquote2]
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Joe,

I arrived at that probability empyrically, that is, by systematic observation of my
Albanian friends. How did you get the 90,000 number of Albanians applied? Where can I
get the number of applicants (not winners) per country? This info does *NOT* appear
on the official site.

Peter

Joachim Feise

Peter wrote:
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[usenetquote2]> > Alexis wrote:[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > where did you get that number? (30%) Where can I get statistics for different[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > countries?[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > >[/usenetquote2]

[usenetquote2]> > > > Hallo,[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > > Recently, it struck me how likely it is for an Albanian to win the GC[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > > Lottery. It is about 30%! Are they preferred, or we are witnessing some kind[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > > > of distortion in the Probability Theory?[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > It would be interesting to know how you arrived at this number. For DV-2002,[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > http://travel.state.gov/dvresults.html shows 2331 "winners" from Albania out of[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > about 90000. That makes less than 3%. Note also that this is the number of people[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > selected, not the number of people actually getting a GC.[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > -Joe[/usenetquote2]
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The 90000 is the number of selected winners from *all* countries, according to the
DoS site. I don't think there is a breakdown by country of the applicants available.
Your "systematic observation" is of course not a statistically valid sample, since it
is not a random selection.

-Joe

Peter

[email protected] (Peter)
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Joe,

Could you provide the link of DoS (What's that?) where the number of DV applicants
is posted?

Thanks, Peter

Peter

Joe,

Could you give us the DoS link?

Thanks, Peter

Joachim Feise

Peter wrote:
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[usenetquote2]> > Hallo,[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > Recently, it struck me how likely it is for an Albanian to win the GC Lottery. It[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > is about 30%! Are they preferred, or we are witnessing some kind of distortion in[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > the Probability Theory?[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> >[/usenetquote2]
[usenetquote2]> > Cheers, Peter[/usenetquote2]
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DoS = Department of State. The link: http://travel.state.gov/dvresults.html It states
that for DV-2002, there were approximately 10 million qualified entries, and 3
million disqualified applications. It also says that approximately 90000 applicants
have been registered and notified.

-Joe