H-1B cap status
May 22nd 2009, 12:10 am
#1
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H-1B cap status
As a procrastination exercise I've been interested in predicting when the H-1B cap will be reached.
The USCIS press releases detailing the numbers of received H-1B petitions are all over the place (split between two different sections of the website, and there are others that aren't listed in either).
I put together all the ones I could find:
and plotted a graph.
To guess when the cap will be reached, draw a line on the graph through the yellow dots with slope according to how optimistic you are
The date when you hit the zero at the bottom of the graph is when no more numbers will be available.
The upper black line is a statistical least-squares fit, the mathematical "best guess" possible with the data we have so far. Of course, it doesn't take into account the (recovering?) economy, a new wave of university graduates in June, etc etc etc. I put a more conservative guess as the lower black line. It's only that: a guess!
The graph makes it pretty clear that guesses for when the cap will be reached involve a lot of extrapolation - the actual data we have occupies little over a month on the time axis, but we're talking about extrapolating by maybe six times that. Any statistician will tell you this means you should take the predictions with a big pinch of salt.
The H-1B1 situation complicates matters a bit. 6800 H-1B1 visas are reserved for Singaporean and Chilean nationals. These numbers are taken from the overall H-1B cap of 65000, and any unused ones are not returned to the general cap until the following financial year. So effectively for the "rest of us" there are only 58200 H-1Bs available. What I'm not sure about is whether received H-1B1 petitions are included in the counts provided by USCIS. As a worst-case they are not included, and then the general cap would be reached when the predicted trendline of your choice crosses the orange horizontal line on the graph above.
Would anyone like to place some friendly bets on when the cap will be reached? As for my personal hunch, a six-pack says it'll be sometime in the month of September.
The USCIS press releases detailing the numbers of received H-1B petitions are all over the place (split between two different sections of the website, and there are others that aren't listed in either).
I put together all the ones I could find:
Code:
Date Petitions received 9-Apr 42000 20-Apr 44000 27-Apr 45000 4-May 45000 18-May 45500
To guess when the cap will be reached, draw a line on the graph through the yellow dots with slope according to how optimistic you are
The date when you hit the zero at the bottom of the graph is when no more numbers will be available.The upper black line is a statistical least-squares fit, the mathematical "best guess" possible with the data we have so far. Of course, it doesn't take into account the (recovering?) economy, a new wave of university graduates in June, etc etc etc. I put a more conservative guess as the lower black line. It's only that: a guess!
The graph makes it pretty clear that guesses for when the cap will be reached involve a lot of extrapolation - the actual data we have occupies little over a month on the time axis, but we're talking about extrapolating by maybe six times that. Any statistician will tell you this means you should take the predictions with a big pinch of salt.
The H-1B1 situation complicates matters a bit. 6800 H-1B1 visas are reserved for Singaporean and Chilean nationals. These numbers are taken from the overall H-1B cap of 65000, and any unused ones are not returned to the general cap until the following financial year. So effectively for the "rest of us" there are only 58200 H-1Bs available. What I'm not sure about is whether received H-1B1 petitions are included in the counts provided by USCIS. As a worst-case they are not included, and then the general cap would be reached when the predicted trendline of your choice crosses the orange horizontal line on the graph above.
Would anyone like to place some friendly bets on when the cap will be reached? As for my personal hunch, a six-pack says it'll be sometime in the month of September.
Last edited by henryh; May 22nd 2009 at 12:18 am.
May 22nd 2009, 12:54 am
#2
Are we there yet?
Joined: Jul 2007
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May 22nd 2009, 1:10 am
#3
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May 22nd 2009, 6:01 am
#4
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Re: H-1B cap status
I'm impressed!
May 23rd 2009, 3:16 am
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L2, GC, Surrey, OH, TX!
Joined: Aug 2007
Location: Surrey to Dallas (via Ohio)!
Posts: 6,363
Re: H-1B cap status
this is a bit like a grand national sweepstake 
ill go for October then
ill go for October then
