scrubbedexpat091

Seems polling these days isn't as accurate. It was way off up this way last year and so off the media and parties involved seemed shocked when results started to come in. Never had an election in recent times where polls were so far off from the results.

So did the republican gain stem from people tiring of the democrats, or did the republicans just come out in full force and democrats didn't?

I have no clue, as I didn't think the republicans had any chance anymore, but then again the few American's I know in real life are in Canada, and well there is a reason we are here so we may be too biased to really know why the republicans won.

thinbrit

After years of a sluggish economic recovery and foreign crises aplenty, the voters' mood was sour.

Nearly two-thirds of voters interviewed after casting ballots said the country was seriously on the wrong track. Only about 30 percent said it was generally going in the right direction.

More than four in ten voters disapproved of both Obama and Congress, according to the exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks.

GOP takeover: Republicans surge to Senate control

Pulaski

Exactly. That is the way your political posts read, and even moreso Michael's, Steerpike's, SirEccles', and RWFLP's. They are well thought out, and totally "logical" but the bases/ premises of your arguments are are consistently so far from reality as to be unrecognisable out here in real world.

Anyone who doesn't agree with you is branded a wingnut, and ridiculed, not as someone with a valid position who should be listened to and understood. So much so that I really can't be ärsed to argue with you guys, except for occasional jabs, because all I get is a lengthy lecture, with supporting links and graphics to prove I am "wrong" and explain exactly how wrong I am.

BTW opinion polling in the UK has been wide of the mark, in the same direction, a number of times over the past 32 years, notably in the 1992 when the Conservatives won a majority when they were not expected to do so. Back in the 80's the Conservatives got much larger majorities than were predicted. Then more recently the rise of the UKIP was not predicted by the established opinion polling organizations, when from my perspective there was clearly a significant ground swell of support.

HumphreyC

We'll have to see how Nate Silver at 538 did - I didn't follow all his predictions but he certainly got the overall result right (75% chance of the GOP wining the senate) and the races I paid attention to - Bake for MA gov, Scott Brown in NH.

Yes the polling is all over the map - but the aggregate of polls (corrected for bias) seems to be pretty accurate. In the UK it's a different story because they don't do constituency level polling.

Interestingly voters appear to agree with the Dems on most issues and GOP members of congress get lower ratings than their Dem counterparts. That doesn't translate to Dem success in 2014 because:

a) Voters always vote against the incumbent president in the mid term election year.

b) Lower turnout - The midterms are dominated by 'motivated voters', I.E the GOP base. Minorities and the young tend to sit them out.

c) The senate map was really bad for Dems this year.

It's counter intuitive but I'd say the results last night were good for the Dems. The GOP will likely gain confidence and fall back on the 'one more heave strategy' and there's a better chance of them putting forward a loony candidate for 2016 rather than someone like Jeb Bush. The map and the demographics will be much more favorable for the Dems in 2016 and the GOP need to undertake serious reforms to stand the best chance. It will be hard to do that if they think they have just been vindicated by the electorate.

Pulaski

Those two statistics are widely quoted, but often (usually) misinterpreted, or presented such that many people do misinterpret them. .... Those who say that they don't like "the direction the country is going in" is divided, probably fairly evenly, been those at opposing ends of the political spectrum, and equally those mad at Congress and the President are mad for several inconsistent reasons, with likely only a minority wanting a Congress and President in the center, between the two.

FlaviusAetius

Exactly. The personal attacks are what stifle a good debate and a full development of the issues. These threads could be a lot more than the left-wing echo chamber they generally are at present.

Although there were some mistakes in Senatorial candidates in the 2010 and 2012 electoral cycles that cost the GOP seats they could have won, I don't think either McCain or Romney were "loony candidates." If Sarah Palin, in the eyes of many, wasn't an ideal candidate for VP, neither was Joe Biden (some refer to him as Obama's life insurance policy). You appear to underestimate the steely determination of the GOP, and their primary voters, to put forward the best available candidate for president in 2016.

cranston

Yet again the betting shop odds correctly predicted the outcome......forget the polls watch the bookies!!!!

Pulaski

Bookies live in the real world, not in ivory towers!

scrubbedexpat099

My impression was that the polls were within the level of accuracy. Often that level was wider than the margin of victory.

To state the obvious most potential voters did not and most who did voted for whoever they would have anyway. The amount required in many of these elections to switch is relatively tiny.

There was an item on CNN I think about those standing with very dubious pasts, comment was made that most people do not look beyond the D or R as a plus or a minus.

I am not having a go about either side, they both do it when the winds favour them, tiny swing massive mandate.

Matters more of course as to how things pan out now, having the likes of Reid sidelined has to be positive.

Anyway on to 2016.

Hotscot

I found this analysis of interest since it comes from Republicans.

GOP triumph tempered by hard problems, now and in 2016 - LA Times

Mrs Danvers

Colorado really isn't a liberal state, it's a bell weather state. There are liberal pockets such as the Boulder to Denver front range area but south of Denver going to Colorado Springs is one of the most conservative metropolitan areas in the country. That's where the Focus on the Family and mega church ilk live.

I'm not sure if the legalization of pot was seen as a liberal vote but truth be told many right leaning libertarians voted for that too.

As usual, some liberals were too lazy to vote in the midterms and Republicans won. I got an awful lot of condescending crap through the door from the DNC telling me the importance of voting. I did once register as a democrat but changed to independent two years ago.

Michael

In my opinion, it the same problem that the democrats have had since Obama came into office which is that they can't seem to get a positive message out and in this election, it was much worst in that they didn't even try to but instead tried to hide from issues. The republicans on the other hand don't have to explain how they are going to solve problems but only have to be against anything that is not working correctly.

• Obamcare: Republicans are still beating up on Obamacare but when polled, about 65% of the Americans don't want it repealed. The republicans claim that Obamacare will just raise the cost of healthcare but the healthcare inflation has been the lowest in over 50 years.
• Budget Deficit, Taxes, and the Economy: Americans love tax cuts and a low budget deficit but during the Bush administration, the budget deficit turned from surplus to an average budget deficit of 7.5% per year. However Americans were happy since the republicans gave them tax cuts, inflated housing prices that they could use as a piggy bank, and unemployment was low. Initially the republicans beat up on Obama about the budget deficit but during fiscal year 2014 (Oct 2013-Sept 2014), the deficit dropped to 2.8% and the republicans remained quiet and so did the democrats. Although the US economy has performed better than any other developed economy with the economy constantly expanding (although at a moderate rate) where it will soon be the longest continuous expansion in history, continuous job creation, and a low unemployment rate compared to other countries, the republicans say the economy is bad and the democrats say .That's understandable since Americans no longer have their piggy bank, under employment is still high, and they haven't been getting the tax cuts that the republicans seem to deliver on but the democrats run away from the issue.
• Gridlock: Republicans say it's all Obama's fault but Obama tried to engage the republicans on Obamacare by duplicating Romney's health care plan and the Heritage Foundation republicans plan proposed as an alternate health care plan during the Clinton administration and opposed a "single payer" plan since there wouldn't be any republican support but even with that plan, not one single republican would discuss supporting the plan or any version of the plan other than a total free market plan. On the other hand, the republican house tried to repeal Obamacare 50 times which is a likely record and the Tea Party has said many times that "compromise is a bad word" and the only thing that is acceptable is their way on all issues.
• Ebola: The republicans have a good sound bite to make Americans afraid of Ebola and the problem is caused by Obama. Although no American has died from Ebola, the fear and blame is there and the democrats don't even attempt to explain that they are trying to control it in Africa and not just trying to create hysteria.
• Iraq and Syria: The republicans have blamed Obama for everything that has gone wrong in the middle east never mentioning that the Iraq war has caused a lot of the problems. The republicans don't have a plan but all say they would have bombed Syria and armed the rebels but don't mention that our allies in the Middle East armed the rebels and that is the primary problem.
• Russia and Ukraine: This is Obama's fault but the republicans haven't said what they'd do except punch Putin.

When the democrats ran this year's campaign, they kept their heads down and distanced themselves from Obama hoping that nobody would notice those issues. Maybe be they can't explain those issues to he American public but if they don't try, they are guaranteed to lose.

Hotscot

But, but...that would take more than one sound bite and the American public just won't accept that.

(Good summary.)

sir_eccles

But you are a wingnut and you are wrong :-)

scrubbedexpat099

I have the noise on in the background and have just hear the American Public have spoken crap, no idea by whom not that it matters.

A tiny number switched.