2020 Election
#796
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
Three tiers based on polling. Four in top tier (1 minority), Six in second tier (2 minority), 10 in third tier. Can't see how statistically those splits would have made that outcome more likely.
Last edited by Giantaxe; Jul 19th 2019 at 4:13 pm.
#797
Account Closed
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Re: 2020 Election
I think we actually agree, maybe.
I had not looked at the details and certainly have no intent to do the maths but it was not as you explained random, the minorities were not evenly spread between the groups so what happened was more likely than in a truly random draw.
Like I said I doubt it was intentional. Perhaps consequential. Politics seems full of such issues, the intent is one thing, the outcome another.
Actually the whole process has produced odd results, well most of those in say the top 15 would have made it anyway but certainly some benefited from the particular way the rules were written, Marianne Williamson who has certainly made things interesting and who I doubt I would have ever heard of otherwise.
Not so much now but I have always like playing games and reminds me of some games that I really liked but once you knew them really well had design issues that I doubt the Authors ever considered that basically made them unplayable. The more complicated the rules the more likely this was likely to happen.
I had not looked at the details and certainly have no intent to do the maths but it was not as you explained random, the minorities were not evenly spread between the groups so what happened was more likely than in a truly random draw.
Like I said I doubt it was intentional. Perhaps consequential. Politics seems full of such issues, the intent is one thing, the outcome another.
Actually the whole process has produced odd results, well most of those in say the top 15 would have made it anyway but certainly some benefited from the particular way the rules were written, Marianne Williamson who has certainly made things interesting and who I doubt I would have ever heard of otherwise.
Not so much now but I have always like playing games and reminds me of some games that I really liked but once you knew them really well had design issues that I doubt the Authors ever considered that basically made them unplayable. The more complicated the rules the more likely this was likely to happen.
#798
Re: 2020 Election
You're sure about that...?
Climate change will help solve racism? Okay...
Link to video
Literally has no idea on anything foreign policy related...
Link to video
Screaming at a fence is not a lucid individual...
Link to video
Also not to mention she completely conned her constituents out of thousands of jobs...
NY Times Article on Amazon Pullout
Climate change will help solve racism? Okay...
Link to video
Literally has no idea on anything foreign policy related...
Link to video
Screaming at a fence is not a lucid individual...
Link to video
Also not to mention she completely conned her constituents out of thousands of jobs...
NY Times Article on Amazon Pullout
#799
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
The process is called "seeding", based on poll results, and is hardly a radical concept.
#800
Account Closed
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Re: 2020 Election
Wish my Maths skill was up to calculating the odds of this happening with and without the seeding...
Somebody set this system up, well probably several people, and going back to my game analogy they had some sort of vision as to why they did it and how they expected it to work, probably not what has happened.
#801
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
I can see it but explaining it...
Wish my Maths skill was up to calculating the odds of this happening with and without the seeding...
Somebody set this system up, well probably several people, and going back to my game analogy they had some sort of vision as to why they did it and how they expected it to work, probably not what has happened.
Wish my Maths skill was up to calculating the odds of this happening with and without the seeding...
Somebody set this system up, well probably several people, and going back to my game analogy they had some sort of vision as to why they did it and how they expected it to work, probably not what has happened.
#802
Account Closed
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Re: 2020 Election
Bernie Sanders' unionized staffers clash with campaign over guarantee of $15 an hour
(CNN)Sen. Bernie Sanders is a staple on the front lines of the labor fight, leading the charge in Washington and around the country to raise the minimum wage for workers to $15 an hour. But within his own campaign, which unionized earlier this year, tense discussions over pay have spilled out into public view.
The dispute threatens to undermine Sanders' political message and, if it were to escalate, his ability to credibly advocate for workers around the country currently engaged in their own struggles to negotiate higher wages and better working conditions.
Ooops
#803
Re: 2020 Election
Bernie Sanders' unionized staffers clash with campaign over guarantee of $15 an hour
(CNN)Sen. Bernie Sanders is a staple on the front lines of the labor fight, leading the charge in Washington and around the country to raise the minimum wage for workers to $15 an hour. But within his own campaign, which unionized earlier this year, tense discussions over pay have spilled out into public view.
The dispute threatens to undermine Sanders' political message and, if it were to escalate, his ability to credibly advocate for workers around the country currently engaged in their own struggles to negotiate higher wages and better working conditions.
Ooops
Field staff earn $36,000 a year, which would be above minimum wage on a standard workweek, but Sanders field personnel say they’re actually working about 60 hours a week — for an hourly wage of $13. Long hours are typical of campaign work (you have a limited span of time in which to win the thing, after all), but these particular positions fall into a kind of legal and sociocultural black hole. The norm in America was that low-status workers would be paid an hourly wage and thus be eligible for overtime pay if they worked long hours. Salaried workers wouldn’t necessarily get overtime for pulling long shifts, but salaried work was associated with high-skill, high-status, well-compensated white-collar work.
I always assumed campaigns such as Bernie's were all volunteer forces; obviously not.
#804
Account Closed
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Re: 2020 Election
It's a bit more nuanced than you might want - the staffers ARE paid minimum wage or above, but the issue is about the number of hours worked by salaried workers. - https://www.vox.com/2019/7/20/207008...wage-staff-pay
What just might blow up here is that 'salaried' has been a tool to get people to work longer hours without pay for a long time, and some states (CA) have made it extremely difficult to categorize positions as being salaried for this reason. So while Bernie can definitely claim to be paying > minimum wage, he could fall afoul of other laws - and be liable for back-pay.
I always assumed campaigns such as Bernie's were all volunteer forces; obviously not.
What just might blow up here is that 'salaried' has been a tool to get people to work longer hours without pay for a long time, and some states (CA) have made it extremely difficult to categorize positions as being salaried for this reason. So while Bernie can definitely claim to be paying > minimum wage, he could fall afoul of other laws - and be liable for back-pay.
I always assumed campaigns such as Bernie's were all volunteer forces; obviously not.
AOC I see is now seeking Reparations for Migrant children. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ly-separations
The US has a “lifelong commitment” to the children it separated, she said, adding: “I believe we have responsibility to provide mental healthcare services to those children for the rest of their lives.”
#805
Re: 2020 Election
So at what point is Diamond Joe going to drop out?
Will it be when he finishes 5th in Iowa, or will it be before then?
Will it be when he finishes 5th in Iowa, or will it be before then?
#807
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
Oh, and latest polls are showing Biden having rebounded from the aftermath of the first debate:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...atic/national/
Last edited by Giantaxe; Jul 22nd 2019 at 3:22 am.
#808
Re: 2020 Election
I hope he and Bernie don't win the nomination, but I don't see either of them dropping out any time soon, if ever.
Oh, and latest polls are showing Biden having rebounded from the aftermath of the first debate:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...atic/national/
Oh, and latest polls are showing Biden having rebounded from the aftermath of the first debate:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...atic/national/
Also look at the numbers beyond the top line and it doesn't look good for Biden. All he has going for him is electability and I don't see that holding for him particularly as the voters get to know Warren and Harris more.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...s-and-sanders/
#809
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
Also look at the numbers beyond the top line and it doesn't look good for Biden. All he has going for him is electability and I don't see that holding for him particularly as the voters get to know Warren and Harris more.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...s-and-sanders/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...s-and-sanders/
#810
Re: 2020 Election
Looking at the 2002 electoral map we can see which States the candidate has to appeal to.
Any Democratic Candidate is likely to win California, WA or OR. No matter how many votes they get it will make no difference to the outcome.
https://www.270towin.com/
Any Democratic Candidate is likely to win California, WA or OR. No matter how many votes they get it will make no difference to the outcome.
https://www.270towin.com/
Last edited by johnwoo; Jul 22nd 2019 at 10:43 pm.