civilservant

Indeed, it appears that it really will come down to PA.

If Biden loses PA, there is no obvious 'Plan B' replacement state,

Lion in Winter

You can amuse yourself with this game, courtesy of the New York Times. I don't think it has the paywall up for this.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...nd-states.html

civilservant

Oh I have, I'm an NYT subscriber anyway

Giantaxe

It's certainly possible for Biden to win the popular vote by 6 to 8% and lose the electoral college. And it's certainly possible that the Supreme Court will hand Trump a victory one way or another.

Lion in Winter

Tightest possible outcome?

scrubbedexpat096

4.2 in PA could well be the last relevant state to be called.


Personally I think Biden can do it without Florida, and Dems are outvoting Republicans nearly 3-1 according to early registrated voters.....


​​​​​

Lion in Winter

Isn't that skewed by the fact/idea/belief that Dem voters are more likely to vote early/by mail, etc., whereas Repubs are more likely to vote on the day?

scrubbedexpat096

It is indeed but given the current forecast for turnout remaining quite high it would take a considerable number of republicans to swing it back the other way

civilservant

You're assuming that the voters that are coming out of the woodwork and voting for Biden. That's a dangerous assumption.

There can and will be a red tide tomorrow. I hope that there are enough Dem votes already in the bank to make it irrelevant. As the election gets closer, I get more worried,

Lion in Winter

That's where I am. You would think that a second victory would be impossible after everything that's happened, but then it should have been impossible the first time in any sane universe.

scrubbedexpat099

Going to be a shit show whoever wins, which variety is the open question.

Everything I have seen points Biden, well Kamala. Big Man's senior moments seem to be catching up on him.

scrubbedexpat091

If Trump is re-elected, it's going to ruin the US even more, and especially on the world scale.

Keep in mind as well, just because republicans are voting, doesn't mean they are voting for Trump, I have some republican family and acquaintances who are still registered R but say they voted for Biden or plan to do so, but these are California republicans who can be more left than southern republicans.


I asked in the other forum, these polls do they take into account the millions who already voted? With the record numbers of early voting some breaking records and already higher turnout than 2016, do these polls take that into account?

When they say there is now a 4 point difference in this state and its getting closer, is that just based on those who have not yet voted or also includes those that have?

The science behind polling is above my IQ level, I tried to find the answer but got more confused trying to find it....

Jerseygirl

If Trump wins the Dems have only themselves to blame. They should have chosen someone younger than Biden.

civilservant

It's the results of the entire sample. No doubt the sample includes those that have already voted and those that haven't. It's a projection for the entire election in a given state, there is no breakdown for having voted already or not.

Lion in Winter

Sure, but to me this isn't about a Party losing, it's about all of us losing and damage that is well beyond party politics.


Edit to add a quote from a Trump supporter, from the Guardian feed:

"Few had a bad word to say about Trump’s track record, not even his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, despite the US death toll passing 231,000.“He did a great job with Covid. China did it purposefully to bring down our economy, and we know that Joe Biden loves China, and that he’s criminal and corrupt. Anything that Trump did wrong before becoming president, he’s repented for,” said Mark Lazar, 56, a housing inspector."


I mean, how do you have a rational discussion with that?