2020 Election
May 26th 2020, 3:02 am
#3091
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,830
Re: 2020 Election
We are a small privately funded organization that targets outreach in several forms. Placing volunteers in shopping malls in order to source the most foot traffic in various communities. Outreach that involves contacting churches and social organizations have proven to be one of our quite effective means to and end. But one of the most productive means of registering new voters is to do a form of accessing information via code calling and mailings to contact and learn if the inhabitant in that particular dwelling has interest in voting based on certain criteria. It's very very effective in helping a canvasser to perform at their optimum best. Usually by the time one of our people are placed in a neighborhood in order to fan out and canvas, they are equipped with more than enough necessary information to where a hard sale is not needed. The canvasser is basically performing the third contact for the face to face interview. We will be in Wisconsin months before the election.
Have you ever participated in canvassing? It's a very rewarding experience imo.
May 26th 2020, 4:24 am
#3092
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Apr 2014
Location: Lauren's Co. SC by way of Palmetto, Florida
Posts: 3,265
Re: 2020 Election
By "strong Cuban voter presence" I guess you mean Miami-Dade, where Clinton got 1% more of the vote than Obama did by percentage, and Broward, where she underran and got less than Obama did. By "working person's vote" I guess that means Palm Beach County, one of the wealthiest counties in the US, where Clinton underran the Democrats' historical advantage substantially, and the county had its closest result in a generation. Or Pinellas County, which she lost outright but Obama won twice (and, Gore also won Pinellas). By "rural" I guess you mean places like Jacksonville, St Petersburg and Ft Myers-Naples, all of which Trump carried?
It's one thing to parrot an MSNBC talking point about the "white working class" but who the hell exactly is that? Usually on this forum it's a dog whistle for "rural" and "Southern." But you will not find many of those in Florida south of Orlando and the demographic in a place like Lee and Martin Counties, are very different than in places like Santa Rosa and Columbia Counties.
If the "white working class" means exactly what it says, that's about 68% or 69% of the national electorate. Quite a large portion for so many to be so dismissive about, which is part of the problem. You counter that by having policies that appeal to that group, not by playing racial identity politics as UKwinds proposed.
By the way some of the Florida counties Clinton got stomped in, have large relative African-American populations. Escambia County is about 23% African-American, compared to 15% in Miami-Dade. Duval County is about 28% African-American.
It's one thing to parrot an MSNBC talking point about the "white working class" but who the hell exactly is that? Usually on this forum it's a dog whistle for "rural" and "Southern." But you will not find many of those in Florida south of Orlando and the demographic in a place like Lee and Martin Counties, are very different than in places like Santa Rosa and Columbia Counties.
If the "white working class" means exactly what it says, that's about 68% or 69% of the national electorate. Quite a large portion for so many to be so dismissive about, which is part of the problem. You counter that by having policies that appeal to that group, not by playing racial identity politics as UKwinds proposed.
By the way some of the Florida counties Clinton got stomped in, have large relative African-American populations. Escambia County is about 23% African-American, compared to 15% in Miami-Dade. Duval County is about 28% African-American.
Firstly, it was you who brought up Cuban voters as raising Trump over the line. As you have superior knowledge of the area through your extensive time living here, and Google, it would be nice if you could point out where that type of voter lives in Florida in places where their numbers are great enough to make a significant difference to any county election as you imply that I appear to have been misled by my Puerto Rican friends from Dade county.
Secondly, I didn't say that Trump didn't carry any urban areas in Florida and if you think that someone who lives 6 miles from Pinellas county (St Pete isn't a county) would consider it a rural area then you must be daft in the head.
Thirdly, I am one of those 'white working class' types living south of Orlando and as I don't watch cable I'll have to take your word that whatever you say about MSNBC is correct. If you have trouble picturing the types of folk who fit into the 'white working class south of Orlando' category then just try to picture your local plumber, electrician, construction worker, farmer or anyone else in your area that fits into 'working class' category and add a tan. Round here, shock horror, white people even mow the grass for a living.
Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, I was giving you my impression from the state that I live in and I can say with absolute certainty that I speak to and gain an insight into a damn sight more Floridian voters (and non-voters ) of all ethnicities than someone from outside the state who uses MSNBC to glean their facts about the place.
May 26th 2020, 10:27 am
#3093
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: 2020 Election
Sure. I'm happy to walk you through the maths of the Cuban-American and Hispanic vote in Florida.
In 2016, non-Cuban Hispanics went for Clinton over Trump in Florida, 71% to 26%.
Cuban-American voters went for Trump, 54% to 41%.
The Cuban-American vote is a little over 800,000 voters in Florida.
If that voting bloc goes for Clinton by the same margin that the rest of the Hispanic vote did, by my maths that is a swing of a little over 200,000 votes away from Trump and to Clinton - a 400,000 vote total swing - in a state Trump won by 113,000 votes.
So, yes, the Cuban-American vote pulled Trump over the line in Florida. They are also concentrated in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, which answers your request for an example of a demographic vote that could swing a county election. The Cuban-American vote, and its demonstrated capacity for high turnout, historically has in fact swung local election after local election in South Florida and that is common knowledge in Florida Politics 101.
Second, your definition of "white working class" is very shallow and hopefully does not commit the common, but cardinal, sin of presumption that Florida effectively ends somewhere around Gainesville. I notice you only spoke of the "white working class" south of Orlando and you seem to presume it means someone who works with their hands. Why? Florida is a very diverse state and the "white working class" thing, as I said earlier, is a trope. There is no monolithic "white working class" in Florida and speaking to someone from the "white working class" (whoever that is supposed to be) in Ft Walton Beach, Sarasota and Miami is likely to give the impression one is speaking to people from completely different parts of the country than the same state. They have very different voting patterns. Florida's electoral history is littered with candidates who ignored that, at their peril, and seemingly forgot the Panhandle was part of the state.
In 2016, non-Cuban Hispanics went for Clinton over Trump in Florida, 71% to 26%.
Cuban-American voters went for Trump, 54% to 41%.
The Cuban-American vote is a little over 800,000 voters in Florida.
If that voting bloc goes for Clinton by the same margin that the rest of the Hispanic vote did, by my maths that is a swing of a little over 200,000 votes away from Trump and to Clinton - a 400,000 vote total swing - in a state Trump won by 113,000 votes.
So, yes, the Cuban-American vote pulled Trump over the line in Florida. They are also concentrated in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, which answers your request for an example of a demographic vote that could swing a county election. The Cuban-American vote, and its demonstrated capacity for high turnout, historically has in fact swung local election after local election in South Florida and that is common knowledge in Florida Politics 101.
Second, your definition of "white working class" is very shallow and hopefully does not commit the common, but cardinal, sin of presumption that Florida effectively ends somewhere around Gainesville. I notice you only spoke of the "white working class" south of Orlando and you seem to presume it means someone who works with their hands. Why? Florida is a very diverse state and the "white working class" thing, as I said earlier, is a trope. There is no monolithic "white working class" in Florida and speaking to someone from the "white working class" (whoever that is supposed to be) in Ft Walton Beach, Sarasota and Miami is likely to give the impression one is speaking to people from completely different parts of the country than the same state. They have very different voting patterns. Florida's electoral history is littered with candidates who ignored that, at their peril, and seemingly forgot the Panhandle was part of the state.
May 26th 2020, 11:52 am
#3094
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Apr 2014
Location: Lauren's Co. SC by way of Palmetto, Florida
Posts: 3,265
Re: 2020 Election
Sure. I'm happy to walk you through the maths of the Cuban-American and Hispanic vote in Florida.
In 2016, non-Cuban Hispanics went for Clinton over Trump in Florida, 71% to 26%.
Cuban-American voters went for Trump, 54% to 41%.
The Cuban-American vote is a little over 800,000 voters in Florida.
If that voting bloc goes for Clinton by the same margin that the rest of the Hispanic vote did, by my maths that is a swing of a little over 200,000 votes away from Trump and to Clinton - a 400,000 vote total swing - in a state Trump won by 113,000 votes.
So, yes, the Cuban-American vote pulled Trump over the line in Florida. They are also concentrated in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, which answers your request for an example of a demographic vote that could swing a county election. The Cuban-American vote, and its demonstrated capacity for high turnout, historically has in fact swung local election after local election in South Florida and that is common knowledge in Florida Politics 101.
Second, your definition of "white working class" is very shallow and hopefully does not commit the common, but cardinal, sin of presumption that Florida effectively ends somewhere around Gainesville. I notice you only spoke of the "white working class" south of Orlando and you seem to presume it means someone who works with their hands. Why? Florida is a very diverse state and the "white working class" thing, as I said earlier, is a trope. There is no monolithic "white working class" in Florida and speaking to someone from the "white working class" (whoever that is supposed to be) in Ft Walton Beach, Sarasota and Miami is likely to give the impression one is speaking to people from completely different parts of the country than the same state. They have very different voting patterns. Florida's electoral history is littered with candidates who ignored that, at their peril, and seemingly forgot the Panhandle was part of the state.
In 2016, non-Cuban Hispanics went for Clinton over Trump in Florida, 71% to 26%.
Cuban-American voters went for Trump, 54% to 41%.
The Cuban-American vote is a little over 800,000 voters in Florida.
If that voting bloc goes for Clinton by the same margin that the rest of the Hispanic vote did, by my maths that is a swing of a little over 200,000 votes away from Trump and to Clinton - a 400,000 vote total swing - in a state Trump won by 113,000 votes.
So, yes, the Cuban-American vote pulled Trump over the line in Florida. They are also concentrated in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, which answers your request for an example of a demographic vote that could swing a county election. The Cuban-American vote, and its demonstrated capacity for high turnout, historically has in fact swung local election after local election in South Florida and that is common knowledge in Florida Politics 101.
Second, your definition of "white working class" is very shallow and hopefully does not commit the common, but cardinal, sin of presumption that Florida effectively ends somewhere around Gainesville. I notice you only spoke of the "white working class" south of Orlando and you seem to presume it means someone who works with their hands. Why? Florida is a very diverse state and the "white working class" thing, as I said earlier, is a trope. There is no monolithic "white working class" in Florida and speaking to someone from the "white working class" (whoever that is supposed to be) in Ft Walton Beach, Sarasota and Miami is likely to give the impression one is speaking to people from completely different parts of the country than the same state. They have very different voting patterns. Florida's electoral history is littered with candidates who ignored that, at their peril, and seemingly forgot the Panhandle was part of the state.
I would suggest that it is you who has the shallow version of the white working class, I could have listed other occupations but assumed that you understood what 'anyone else' covered. As an example but not an exhaustive list you can add care workers, secretaries, small industry employees, dog groomers, hair stylists, waterways workers, fishermen, python hunters, etc, etc.
And again, I specified south of Orlando because you brought it up.
I haven't excluded other groups nor assume that one bloc of people all vote in the same manner. Adding another stereotype to the list, I would say that the majority of well heeled retired in this area (Naples-Tampa-Orlando triangle) voted Trump, haven't changed their mind and will do the same this year.
The short answer to all this back and forth is that people on the ground don't seem to have changed their minds about their 2016 vote, if anything they are more convinced for 2020. The only thing that will make a significant difference to the results is to appeal to those who were too meh to vote in 2016.
And as a, non-college educated, manual worker who currently votes Blue but who works for a manual worker Rabbi who is staunchly Conservative and pro-Trump I think you'll find that I'm all too aware that many people don't fall into the voting pattern expected of them because of their ethnicity, religion or the job they do.
May 27th 2020, 9:58 pm
#3095
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2011
Location: "LA LA Land"
Posts: 2,448
Re: 2020 Election
Placing volunteers in shopping malls in order to source the most foot traffic in various communities. Outreach that involves contacting churches and social organizations have proven to be one of our quite effective means to and end. But one of the most productive means of registering new voters is to do a form of accessing information via code calling and mailings to contact and learn if the inhabitant in that particular dwelling has interest in voting based on certain criteria. It's very very effective in helping a canvasser to perform at their optimum best. Usually by the time one of our people are placed in a neighborhood in order to fan out and canvas, they are equipped with more than enough necessary information to where a hard sale is not needed. The canvasser is basically performing the third contact for the face to face interview. We will be in Wisconsin months before the election.
.
.
But reading the following lengthy, detailed piece today (which I found a bit overwhelming/depressing) - leads me to wonder whether what you're doing in 2020 is a tad yesterday:
(Unless your activities are keyed into one of these behemoth enterpri$e$......?)....................
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/5/27...z-eric-schmidt
May 28th 2020, 12:34 am
#3096
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2007
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 13,112
Re: 2020 Election
You're generous with your time; you efforts are to be applauded.
But reading the following lengthy, detailed piece today (which I found a bit overwhelming/depressing) - leads me to wonder whether what you're doing in 2020 is a tad yesterday:
(Unless your activities are keyed into one of these behemoth enterpri$e$......?)....................
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/5/27...z-eric-schmidt
But reading the following lengthy, detailed piece today (which I found a bit overwhelming/depressing) - leads me to wonder whether what you're doing in 2020 is a tad yesterday:
(Unless your activities are keyed into one of these behemoth enterpri$e$......?)....................
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/5/27...z-eric-schmidt
It's depressing in that it indicates bifurcation of effort, but encouraging to see lots of high-powered support. Trump's 'digital' performance in 2016 was one of the main things that got him elected, and the Democrats need to step up and figure out how to match it this time around.
May 28th 2020, 12:58 am
#3097
Account Closed
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Re: 2020 Election
Amazing what happens if you are Black and vote GOP.
May 28th 2020, 2:25 am
#3101
Joined: Feb 2012
Location: Not in Paris
Posts: 18,194
Re: 2020 Election
Biden stated in an interview that anyone who voted for Trump couldn’t possibly be black. Unsurprisingly this hasn’t gone down too well, particularly with black Republicans, but also with the African-American community in general.
May 28th 2020, 3:11 am
#3102
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Apr 2014
Location: Lauren's Co. SC by way of Palmetto, Florida
Posts: 3,265
Re: 2020 Election
Rule #1 before quoting fact on the internet: Visit the source material before being tempted to relay misinformation. It's no wonder this world has gone to shit with people believing everything social media tells them.
May 28th 2020, 3:50 am
#3103
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
Meanwhile, as our Tara Reade correspondent has gone "strangely" quiet on the subject of her allegations against Biden, here's an update:
"Reade, under the name Alexandra McCabe, for years testified as an expert in domestic violence cases for the California D.A.’s office. Among the issues is whether she lied about her credentials to qualify as an expert.
“We are investigating whether Ms. McCabe gave false testimony under oath,” Monterey County Chief Assistant District Attorney Berkley Brannon told POLITICO on Tuesday.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...igation-283592
"Reade, under the name Alexandra McCabe, for years testified as an expert in domestic violence cases for the California D.A.’s office. Among the issues is whether she lied about her credentials to qualify as an expert.
“We are investigating whether Ms. McCabe gave false testimony under oath,” Monterey County Chief Assistant District Attorney Berkley Brannon told POLITICO on Tuesday.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...igation-283592
May 28th 2020, 7:17 am
#3104
Heading for Poppyland
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: North Norfolk and northern New York State
Posts: 14,547
Re: 2020 Election
This really is not true.
May 28th 2020, 7:21 am
#3105
Heading for Poppyland
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: North Norfolk and northern New York State
Posts: 14,547
Re: 2020 Election
This is madness. What possible motivation could there be for people to scroll back several pages to “See post 3074” ??