Re: 2016 Election
 

Quite agree Trump faces a huge challenge in the debates, they probably will decide the election in my opinion. On the other hand terrorist attacks such has been seen this year, if they continue at this pace may build support for Trump. The biggest threat to NATO may be not Trump playing hardball to increase their contribution to costs ( Clinton's position certainly wont do much in that regard), but increasing pace and scope of terrorist attacks.

Re: 2016 Election
 

I have to believe that the likes of ISIS literally get erections over the thought of a Trump presidency. Alas, they can finally celebrate the full realisation of the very holy war they've always aspired to instigate.

And with the likes of Trump at the helm, and his "us against them" anti-muslim policies will serve as final proof beyond any doubt that the west always was "at war with Islam", and that the US in particular now represents an existential "threat" to Islam itself.

This represents the most compelling call to recruitment that ISIS could ever wish for. Virtually the entire Muslim population of the world would have little reason to believe otherwise.

Re: 2016 Election
 

ISIS already believes the West is an existential threat to Islam, and the policies of the last years don't seem to be too successful in reducing the appeal of Islamic extremism to certain sections of the Muslim population.

Maybe you are correct that a Trump presidency could have the effect you describe, maybe a different stronger approach could reduce the threat posed by Islamic extremists. Seems hard to decide which is more probable. My opinion though is more of the same will not drastically change current trends.

Re: 2016 Election
 

ISIS does, but they represent only a small minority of the Muslim world. A Trump presidency, presuming he continues the anti-Muslim rhetoric and takes political or military action against Islam as a whole, would radically increase enrollment into extremist jihadi ideology. Bear in mind, that 22% of the world's population is Muslim, or about 1.5 billion people. Imagine if they all were convinced that they were under existential threat...

Status quo not working? Not sure of that. Islamic extremism has only declined in the past 5 years. Their message is not winning the hearts and minds of the Muslim world, because there's simply less and less evidence that suggests Islam itself is under existential attack. However, western extremism is on the rise. And that is playing no small part in Trump's success.

Re: 2016 Election
 

Those who support Trump aren't doing so because they think that he's a genius.

When Trump speaks, a liberal hears a crude, meanspirited bigot who is catering to the lowest common denominator. A Trump supporter hears a straight shooter who is telling it like it is.

Attacking Trump for being dumb and nasty only bolsters his support among his committed fans. He ends up looking like a straight shooter who tells it like it is AND who has the courage to stand up to liberals.

Re: 2016 Election
 

I'm in Kansas city visiting the in-laws right now. Some interesting observations. Yes in the more rural areas there are"America first Trump 2016" signs. On the other hand life long Republican people like my fil seem genuinely unsure what to do.

I know it's anecdotal but I get the feeling there maybe more undecideds than people think.

Re: 2016 Election
 

Texas, Wisconsin and N. Carolina all had their voter supression attempts quashed. North Carolina got a particularly harsh rebuke for the obvious attempt to reduce voting by Democrats.

Re: 2016 Election
 

Science believers? Those of us who don't want to learn the Cyrillic alphabet?

Re: 2016 Election
 

I've been doing work in some very rural areas of Texas for the past few months. I'm flabbergasted by the number of conservative families who are split over the Trump vote. I've also had numerous older conservative folks who, completely unprovoked, just start riffing about how much they hate Trump. I doubt it's enough to change the results in Texas but there's something going on out there among the traditional Republicans --- those that no pollster has ever talked to.

Re: 2016 Election
 

The general reaction I hear to Trump is somewhat bemused, but the feeling about Crooked Hillary is common and may be the deciding factor.

If either party had produced a half acceptable candidate they would have walked it.

Re: 2016 Election
 

If Trump had been able to control his mouth...he would have walked it...judging by the numbers several months ago.

Re: 2016 Election
 

:rofl:

Re: 2016 Election
 

Another anecdotal story ... I'm in Scottsdale visiting a client at the moment. I had dinner with one of my friends there who is a CFO, and an obvious republican. He's reasonably well-travelled, having worked in UK and travelled around Europe at one point. I brought up the subject of Trump, thinking he would be embarrassed, but he was quite upbeat about him, said he appreciates his willingness to give interviews, and 'talk straight'. I mentioned his lack of specificity and he responded by saying 'comprehensive immigration reform' lacks specificity. He then went on a tirade against Hillary, bringing up the email server as a big issue.


This guy was definitely not the knuckle-dragging low-information voter that we think of as a Trump supporter. Very depressing conversation!

Re: 2016 Election
 

The only poll that I have heard about at any length on the subject is one of Muslims worldwide that indicated only 5% supported radical Islamic terrorism to achieve their goals- but 15% supported the ultimate goal of establishing Islamic states. Appling that to the 1.5 billion people you mention is still quite a lot of people !

I am unaware that what is taught in radical muslim Madrassa schools or Mosques will change much regardless of the pronouncement of Western leaders.

Is there less territory controlled by Muslim extremists now compared to 15 years ago ? Are there less terrorist or terrorist inspired acts of violence now compared to 15 years ago ? Are there less sections of major European cities where were non-Muslims feel safe to enter than 15 years ago ? I admit I can only by the news and people I know in Europe, if there is any serious study that confirms the situation is better than 15 years ago, or trends show that the threat will decline in the future I would be interested to read.

The argument should avoid inflaming the rest of the Muslim world I agree would appear to have a certain logic, but doesn't seem to be working too well.

Re: 2016 Election
 

No mention of the Khan speech? He literally killed Trump at the podium on Thursday.