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RoadWarriorFromLP Jul 28th 2015 5:14 am

Re: 2016 Election
 
The data that I have read indicates that Perot pulled from both parties, although that certainly does seem counterintuitive.

I haven't dived into it enough to verify or refute that contention, but if true, then I would imagine that Perot may have appealed to some Dixiecrats who opted not to back Clinton, as well as labor union Democrats who were opposed to NAFTA and free trade.

However, if someone like Perot were to run today, he would certainly pull more heavily from the Republicans, as those Dixiecrats have since become Republicans. Such a candidate still might appeal to the labor unions and Blue Dog Democrats.

Leslie Jul 28th 2015 5:16 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by RoadWarriorFromLP (Post 11710293)
The data that I have read indicates that Perot pulled from both parties, although that certainly does seem counterintuitive.

I haven't dived into it enough to verify or refute that contention, but if true, then I would imagine that Perot may have appealed to some Dixiecrats who opted not to back Clinton, as well as labor union Democrats who were opposed to NAFTA and free trade.

However, if someone like Perot were to run today, he would certainly pull more heavily from the Republicans, as those Dixiecrats have since become Republicans. Such a candidate still might appeal to the labor unions and Blue Dog Democrats.

I think that's right but I don't think they would have voted for Clinton under any circumstances.

Steerpike Jul 28th 2015 7:55 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Leslie (Post 11710276)
I didn't see the show where she made those claims so I'm not really sure what she was saying or exactly why she was saying it. What I do know is that, anecdotally, that's not how I remember things at all. The only people I knew who actually supported Perot were disaffected conservative white people who hated Bill Clinton with a passion. They just also happened to not be overly impressed with George H.W. Bush either.

It was a very volatile time in general. AIDS activism was at its height (think Dallas Buyer's Club) and it was very divisive. Freddie Mercury had just died and Magic Johnson had just been diagnosed. Racial tensions were in the danger zone, there was Rodney King and the LA riots. People were definitely picking sides. IMO what Perot did, that may be different than what is traditionally reported about that election, is he may have helped activate some otherwise apathetic Democrats. For me personally, I found the prospect of him being elected quite frightening --- he was much more scary than GHW Bush.

Despite Perot's populist platform, he was (is) a narrow minded rich white guy from Dallas and he came across as such. He alienated black people as well as gay people with he attitudes and policy proposals. I have a hard time believing that very many people looked at it as a toss-up between him and Bill Clinton.

This page has the video of Rachel Maddow. Trump is Republican frontrunner, third party threats aside | MSNBC
You have to suffer an ad first, but then her Loooonnnnnng rant starts. She really flogs it hard. I really like her when she's a guest on (eg) Bill Maher, but this one is tough to watch.

RoadWarriorFromLP Jul 29th 2015 1:52 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 
This 1992 post mortem from the New York Times repeats the point about the vote being evenly split, and notes that Perot was pro-choice and had supporters that were less likely than average to be churchgoers:

THE 1992 ELECTIONS - DISAPPOINTMENT -- NEWS ANALYSIS An Eccentric but No Joke - Perot's Strong Showing Raises Questions On What Might Have Been, and Might Be - NYTimes.com

I don't see Trump appealing to very many Democrats, and his views aside from free trade are largely out of the GOP playbook, so I don't see Trump and Perot having much in common.

FlaviusAetius Jul 30th 2015 1:20 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by RoadWarriorFromLP (Post 11711778)
This 1992 post mortem from the New York Times repeats the point about the vote being evenly split, and notes that Perot was pro-choice and had supporters that were less likely than average to be churchgoers:

THE 1992 ELECTIONS - DISAPPOINTMENT -- NEWS ANALYSIS An Eccentric but No Joke - Perot's Strong Showing Raises Questions On What Might Have Been, and Might Be - NYTimes.com

I don't see Trump appealing to very many Democrats, and his views aside from free trade are largely out of the GOP playbook, so I don't see Trump and Perot having much in common.

Trump appeals to Democrats who would like him to help them torpedo Republican chances in the general. I could see them voting for him in states with open primaries and even registering as Republicans in states with closed primaries, just to screw up the Republican nominating process. According to a poll released by Fox News, 30% of Republicans would never vote for him in the general. Other Republicans would vote for him as a 3rd Party candidate, so he hurts their chances either way, unless he drops out and throws his support to someone. Probably not going to happen, given his ego.

Why would a lot of Republicans vote for him as a 3rd Party candidate? To show their displeasure with the "Elites" who they believe run the party and who won't promise to reverse any of Obama's initiatives, be they Obamacare, immigration/amnesty, or cutting back on what they see as a Regulation Nation and an ever-expanding and unresponsive federal government. Hillary looks safe, and God help us all from this most corrupt woman...gotta look to Bernie or Joe; or Jim, as an outside shot.

Giantaxe Jul 30th 2015 1:28 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius (Post 11712560)
Trump appeals to Democrats who would like him to help them torpedo Republican chances in the general. I could see them voting for him in states with open primaries and even registering as Republicans in states with closed primaries, just to screw up the Republican nominating process. According to a poll released by Fox News, 30% of Republicans would never vote for him in the general. Other Republicans would vote for him as a 3rd Party candidate, so he hurts their chances either way, unless he drops out and throws his support to someone. Probably not going to happen, given his ego.

If there isn't a viable Democratic race, I will certainly vote in the Republican primary for Trump :lol:

Giantaxe Jul 30th 2015 1:31 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Leslie (Post 11710292)
That was pure political poetry.

Yeh, Stockdale in the vice-presidential debate was a bit like watching Ricky Gervais at his painful best in The Office. A more bizarre pick even than Palin. You betcha!

FlaviusAetius Jul 30th 2015 2:03 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 11712565)
If there isn't a viable Democratic race, I will certainly vote in the Republican primary for Trump :lol:

There isn't a viable Democratic race, so 'lock 'n load,' right Axeman?:rofl:

Giantaxe Jul 30th 2015 2:15 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by FlaviusAetius (Post 11712583)
There isn't a viable Democratic race, so 'lock 'n load,' right Axeman?:rofl:

Actually, I see I would have to re-register as a Republican to do this in '16. Some presidential elections, the Republicans allowed "unaffiliated" voters to vote in their primary, but not in '08. Not sure about '12. The Democrats have consistently allowed folks like me to vote in their presidential primary.

FlaviusAetius Jul 30th 2015 2:22 pm

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 11712589)
Actually, I see I would have to re-register as a Republican to do this in '16. Some presidential elections, the Republicans allowed "unaffiliated" voters to vote in their primary, but not in '08. Not sure about '12. The Democrats have consistently allowed folks like me to vote in their presidential primary.

In 2008, I obeyed Rush Limbaugh's orders to try to cause havoc in the Democratic primary, so I registered as a Democrat (PA has closed primaries). I voted for Hillary and then immediately re-registered as an Independent. It was fun, but it didn't work anyway. But go ahead, and have some fun mucking about in this nutty election process. Like me, you'll feel dirty joining the Dark Side - even if only for a few days.

FlaviusAetius Jul 31st 2015 12:09 am

Re: 2016 Election
 
Salon has a very interesting interview with Camille Paglia in which she analyses the Republican field and predicts that Hillary won't be in the field by debate time. It's worth a read.

“Ted Cruz gives me the willies”: Camille Paglia analyzes the GOP field — and takes on Hillary Clinton - Salon.com

FlaviusAetius Jul 31st 2015 2:54 am

Re: 2016 Election
 
The Republican lineup:

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...2d&oe=5651D23C

zargof Aug 3rd 2015 4:53 am

Re: 2016 Election
 
Word on the street is that Diamond Joe is going to throw his hat (and possibly his car keys) in the ring.

Leslie Aug 3rd 2015 4:55 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by zargof (Post 11715314)
Word on the street is that Diamond Joe is going to throw his hat (and possibly his car keys) in the ring.


Jerseygirl Aug 3rd 2015 5:48 am

Re: 2016 Election
 

Originally Posted by zargof (Post 11715314)
Word on the street is that Diamond Joe is going to throw his hat (and possibly his car keys) in the ring.

Maybe the Dems have come to realise that Clinton may not be their best chance of keeping the White House.


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