sam54140

they will exit the euro. no matter what technocrats say or think...
national pride is surging back.
they tried (forced) the euro it failed (again, the world is also changing and china india are eating a large chunk of manufacturing economy from the the West). there's growing envy to "try" back their previous currencies.
even if it's (and it will be) a painful 6months+ devaluation period. but it will boost further tourism (! evidently) and manufacturing (trabajo con las manos)-heavy industries. very important for a nation to have control of its currency... look what the chinese do with theirs (manipulation) or the US.(printing to keep wall street and gvt spending UP...)..

cricketman

Are you talking about Spain? You must be joking right?

National pride is at an all time low, Spaniards are the first to blame Spanish politicians and Spanish people for the problems they are in

And there is no talk about leaving the Euro. Nobody in Spain wants to leave the Euro. I've brought it up in conversation a few times that Spain would be better off leaving the Euro, and Spaniards have called me crazy. The Euro and Europe is still seen as relatively civilized in comparison.

Spaniards don't want 50 years of solitude again

chopera

Not too sure. Giving Spanish politicians control of a currency is a double edged sword. Now that Spain has the euro, and has most of the internal devaluation out of the way, they might as well see it through and finish off the reforms. Going back to the peseta would mean a return to the bad old ways of systematic corruption, covered up by regular devaluations. Spain shouldn't have had the euro in the first place, but now it does, and now the worst is probably out of the way, there might be more to lose in a return to the peseta.

sam54140

hi
no, general quote.not spain specific.look at France, Greece.
so far Spaniards think europe will keep bailing them out imho.
Germany so far is not ready to abandon Spain, that's true. too big.
but what if unemployment remains at 26pct and youth unemp remains at 60% next year ? and 2015...
note Spain produced 600K more vehicles this year than France but added only 2,400 jobs... mmhh...
there's a problem in the system. like with exports. booming trade balance.
but zero effect on the jobs... and it's not a delay effect.
it all depends wich of the piigs leaves first and what then will be the ripple effect or not. always needs a first one to jump.

sam54140

and the US would love to see the euro reduced in size (nr of EU States using it exclusively) or totally collapsed.
they already are seriously themselves ( a paradox) affecting their own dollar.
the euro was always considered a threat to king dollar.
so who knows.

HBG

I find it strange that the only people who desperately want to leave the Euro are not even in it.

bobd22

I am sure Sam is referring to Spain maybe not from second post, I personally think the jury is still out re the Euro I have overheard some that seem to blame a lot of the problems in it, but then there are some that seem happy with the benefits. Should this money grab actually occur than that may clear some peoples vision. I know from people I know that live in Cyprus they are not over happy with the Euro.
I did get into conversation with a young lad coming back to Spain from working in England on a recent trip over. He certainly was of the opinion that the outlook for him was bleak he lived in the north of Spain. He clearly seemed to feel a lot of Spains problems lay with the Euro? His words were (I'm not sure I agreed with them) Your government are smart they know what to do to get your country out of the mess and they were clever enough to stay out of the Euro.
Obviously everyone has differing opinions.

sam54140

the euro is not the sole cause of the Southern States (including France)
situation. always mentioned it.
the world is changing. some States do better, smarter than others.
Germans are like robots and agree to work more while being paid less (try this in France). southern States always had worse gvt management of their countries. higher corruption rates. Northern States are more disciplined it seems.
Italians would not mind going to the lira. and play with their currency to relaunch their manufacturing industry like the shoe industry...
The euro was first a German way to make Germany sell more goods to its peers and be paid in Euros...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...establishment/
new book making lots of noise in French at the highest level. notice also the dangerous surge of the FN there.
France is at the core of the "euro" concept.

asbtract (and note the man is die hard Federalist!):"Calls for EMU break-up are spreading into the upper echelons of the French foreign policy establishment, and the pro-European core.

An astonishing new book by François Heisbourg – La Fin du Rêve Européen (The end of the European dream) – argues that the "euro cancer" must be cut out to save the rest of the EU Project before it is too late.

"The dream has given way to nightmare. We must face the reality that the EU itself is now threatened by the euro. The current efforts to save it are endangering the Union yet further," he writes:

There is nothing worse than having to confront the sunless mornings (matins blêmes) of an endless crisis, but we are not going to avoid it by denying the reality, and God knows denial has been for a long time, by default, the operating mode of those in charge of EU institutions.

At some time in the future, he insists, Europe's leaders should relaunch the euro, but only after they have established the necessary federalist foundations, and only among a vanguard willing to accept the full implications of a federal currency.

The call to "put the euro to sleep" for Europe's own good is a new twist. We heard a little of this from Germany's AfD anti-euro party, but they had other baggage. The Heisbourg book is a head-on challenge to the Merkel Doctrine (largely rhetorical, contradicted by Germany's actions) that a collapse of EMU would stir up all the old demons of the 20th century.

Yes, a disintegration of the euro might indeed lead to such a calamitous outcome if events are allowed spin out of control after years of festering crisis – the current course – but what kind of an argument is that? It happens only if they let it happen. It is high time somebody from within the EU elites exposed this sentimental Quatsch and misuse of history for what it is.

Prof Heisbourg is certainly an insider, a different kettle of fish from the Front National's Marine Le Pen, now leading French opinion polls with vows to kill off EMU and restore the French franc.

A product of the Quai d'Orsay, he is an ardent European federalist and long-time champion of EMU, and currently chairman of the very blue-chip International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

He says Europe's leaders have lost sight of priorities, seeming to think that the European system must be convulsed and refashioned for the needs of the euro, as if – pre-Copernican – the sun rotates around earth. "You cannot create a federation to save a currency. Money has to be at the service of the political structure, not the other way around," he says.

While he would dearly love to see the great leap forward to an EU federal superstate – which he deems necessary to render monetary union workable over time – this dream is now "pure fantasy".

Attempts to create a "European demos" have obviously failed. The nations are drifting further apart. A referendum on any such concentration of power in the EU institutions would fail almost everywhere. "Integration has reached the limits of legitimacy", he writes. The EU intrusions once tolerated as "disagreeable" have now become "insupportable"."

steviedeluxe

NAIL
ON
HEAD

chopera

It's hard to draw a line where Spain's problems with the euro start. A lot of the crisis was exacerbated by Zapatero who refused to accept there was a crisis in the first place, and then decided the solution was to throw money he didn't have into the economy via "plan E". Then there was the situation where Germany prevented the ECB from buying Spanish bonds, which increased Spanish debt payments during the crisis. This was more to do with incompetence by politicians and less to do with the euro itself. To my mind the damage caused to Spain by the euro took place between 2002 and 2007, when Spain had negative real interest rates that blew up the credit bubble to stupid proportions. Now that's out of the way Spain might as well stick with it. Personally I think if any one country is going to rip the euro apart it'll be France - they haven't begun to carry out the required reforms, and when they do they won't have the stomach for it. Having said that, the euro might be able to survive with a Frexit - it would be an astonishing scenario though.

sam54140

excellent post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/201...-spain0530.jpg
notice the parallel with youth unemployment rate
http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/u...paingreece.jpg

as to France ( breaking it up secretly with Germany over a weekend?), yep, possible, see above article. eyes opener.

stuboy

Plus One

Lynn R

Where I live is a large town (the administrative capital of the Axarquia in Malaga province), 4.5km inland from the coast at Torre del Mar (which is part of the Velez-Malaga municipality, Torre is a resort which is mainly popular with Spanish holidaymakers). Unemployment here is just as bad as it is everywhere else (about 14,000 officially unemployed in Velez).

We have seen a number of businesses close since 2008, the ones dealing in "big ticket" items like car dealers, kitchen and bathroom suppliers, furniture shops etc being the hardest hit. Other high street shops close down and almost immediately another business moves in. There seems to be more empty commercial property in Torre del Mar than there is in Velez, especially away from the main shopping streets.

This summer was the busiest tourist season we have seen for about 4 years in Torre, and other resorts along the coast East of Malaga too. It always has been quiet in Torre out of season (although all the shops and a lot of the bars and restaurants do stay open all year, it isn't one of those ghost resorts in the winter).

As I said in my earlier post, a lot of the unemployed people do seem to be managing to keep their heads above water (just) because of the €426 per month long term unemployment payment they get. Most of the ones living in my particular area live in houses that have been owned by the family for many years so there isn't a mortgage or rent to pay, that would be impossible. There have been some houses where squatters have moved in, but they go for houses that have been repossessed by banks (which are seen as fair game). I know of only one case of a holiday home owned by a foreigner that was squatted, and when the owner was notified and came over, the squatters were evicted after 2 weeks.

Really, apart from the towns being quieter at night with not as many people out and about as there used to be, you would hardly realise that the unemployment situation is so bad - as everyone we meet who is here on holiday says. They have read about the economic crisis in all the papers and are surprised to find things so "normal" at least on the surface.

jackytoo

Like yourself you have said many times you would like to see the Peseta back. Anyone with an income from the UK would if living in Spain.

bobd22

Chopera I agree with your views, I think Spain probably will stick with the Euro but not certain the whole Eurozone will as it seems not all being treated the same. As for only those not in Euro wanting it to collapse can't realy see that as it would be turmoil for anyone with property in Spain resident full time or not. I for one hope Spain comes through this and there is work etc for young Spaniards just as I do for the UK as I have an interest in both countries. My opinion on the Euro is only that it was the one good thing Gordon Brown did keeping the UK out of it. I suppose we will just have to see what happens from here on now .