jackspilt

Anecdotally I'd say there's something to it - in my day job I'm a removal man and we are moving noticeably more of people's stuff out of Spain than we are in. In fact it's getting quite hard to totally fill a van for the UK to Spain leg, but we've had to turn people away from the last few trips for the Spain to UK leg. I just wondered if there's any organisation that collates actual numbers rather than just relying on my (and other people's) 'finger in the wind' musings? I know it sounds a bit 'Daily Mail' but if there is a sudden outflux it might seriously affect property prices - including mine lol.

Pulaski

Well from what I understand, and the figures I have seen, the peak British population in Spain topped out at just under 400,000 in 2012, and has been declining ever since (it was reported as down to 240,000 in 2017). Perhaps Brexit has been a factor, but the trend started four years before the Brexit referendum, and many people seemed to be discounting Brexit actually happening right up until the December 2019 general election, so I suspect that Brexit hasn't been the only reason for the decline, and may not even be the major one.

BritInParis

The strength of the Euro against the pound and the respective property markets are likely to have a bigger effect on people’s relocation plans than Brexit per se. Once dust has settled, the hysteria dies down and it dawns on people that Brexit hasn’t affected their ability to own a holiday home in, nor retire to, Spain then numbers are likely to remain roughly the same as they would’ve done had the result been Remain.

spainrico

I think that some of the huge waves of people who came as retired couples in the 2002-2008 (or thereabouts) era and who now may be single through death of a partner are thinking about or decided to return but I don't get the impression people are leaving because of Brexit because it looks like we will lose very little (anything?) - uprated pensions to continue now confirmed as well.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#history
'If you are living in the EU, EEA or Switzerland by 31 December 2020 you will get your UK State Pension uprated every year for as long as you continue to live there. This will happen even if you start claiming your pension on or after 1 January 2021, as long as you meet the qualifying conditions.'

jackspilt

Wow that's a big ol' decline!

chopera

Although the pound's weakness has been mainly due to Brexit (it started dropping as soon as it became clear there was going to be a referendum)

BritInParis

The big drop came after the result in June 2016 but as Pulaski pointed out the numbers had been declining since 2012. The Tory's manifesto pledge to even hold a referendum wasn't made until 2015. There's unlikely to be a single silver bullet explanation for the decline - it's likely to be a range of factors including a simple change in tastes.

R.Scratcher

I think that the "exodus" of British people returning to the U.K. has tailed off in recent times. In my experience the largest number of Brits selling up and going back occurred about five or six years ago, pre Brexit. Possibly there may be a further wave off selling up and going back in the future. Many retired holiday home owners came out and stayed as long as they wanted. In the post Brexit world where the 90 day in a 180 day visa is enforced some of those holiday home owners may find less desirable to keep a property when their stays are time restricted.

Pulaski

That is objectively not true, although some of the exchange rate movements on the face of it, appear to be "caused" by Brexit.

The reason I say "objectively" not true, is that if that was true then sterling would have fallen further the closer and more certain that Brexit became, but the two low points were the period after the referendum in 2016, and the autumn of 2019 when the Conservative government was struggling to deliver Brexit because of their very small majority.

So, what do these two periods have in common? They were periods when uncertainty was greatest, and that it what typically devalues a currency. I am not saying that uncertainty is the is the only reason, but it is generally true, that uncertainty will drive a currency's value down. Therefore, using this information, you can explain why the pound rallied in 2017, because the Brexit picture became clearer - what Brexit meant started to be explained, and business started adjusting accordingly.

This same thing explains why the general election results last December led to an immediate jump in the value of sterling. According to your theory, the reality that Brexit was now pretty much certain to happen, and happen quickly, should have caused a sharp drop in sterling but the opposite happened. Why? Because there was less uncertainty!

Pulaski

On the other hand, Spain might actually decide that having a couple of hundred thousand or more retired British citizens who bring income with them and spend it on local goods and services, creating/supporting jobs while not taking jobs themselves, might be to the economic advantage of Spain, and might even to be encouraged. Just sayin'

BritInParis

The direction of travel on Brexit becoming finally clear was certainly a major factor but so was the possibility of a Corbyn government being put to rest. By the time of the election the City was far more worried about that than it was about Brexit.

Pulaski

That is very true, and provides further support for the "uncertainty" explanation, that has nothing to do with Brexit.

BritInParis

I take your point but I think the City knew all too well was likely to happen...

Pulaski

That is also very true!

Timmy Chch

The rise and rise of Airbnb over the past few years has probably had an effect too, way easier to sort a let now of a variable amount of time without the expenses of a holiday home