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-   -   Scottish Independence (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/scottish-independence-840592/)

shiva Sep 15th 2014 11:51 pm

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Eeyore (Post 11406869)
Inevitably, a Scottish central bank would mean a new Scottish currency. which i feel is inevitable and preferable Salmond doesn't want that, because of the massive uncertainties it would create. very trueIt would easily mean many years of things getting worse before they got better.not necessarily but there would be massive uncertainty, done right that could be minimized It might well be better for Scotland in the long run - say, in 10-20 years - but Salmond is still just another short-termist politician.absolutely and the problem with all politicians. One of my reasons for supporting independence is its long term benefits but I am under no illusion that the road there is fraught with difficulty and dangers

Salmond also knows that the threat to renege on Scotland's share of UK debt would be impossible to carry through if Scotland had its own currency. its just a threat and only appeared after the line of no asset sharing came out. His initial position was not unreasonable but no used the opportunity to be able to say no to force him into a corner. given the threat to the pound right now a formal currency union to be phased out over time would do both sides some good in the event of a yes.Scotland would immediately be considered a debt-defaulting nation with a completely unproven currency, which would have major consequences in terms of its treatment by the global financial markets. true although with a well structured separation both sides have been told by the agencies that a solid rating is highly likely.standard and poor just the other day issued another statement to that effectSalmond wouldn't be shooting himself in the foot, he'd be effectively sticking the gun into his mouth.

I see no issue with Salmond shooting himself after a yes vote ;) but after please as he has headed and masterminded a brilliant political campaign. lets face it at the outset Yes didn't stand a chance. to have got to this point in the polls so close to the day of the vote is remarkable.
I'm not discounting the sterling job no have done in garnering yes support though

Eeyore Sep 16th 2014 12:35 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

not necessarily but there would be massive uncertainty, done right that could be minimized
Easy to say that when you're not actually living in Scotland and you are insulated from the economic consequences.

TheShed Sep 16th 2014 2:13 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 
Wish that The Dean was here as he could probably explain the reasons behind what I'm about to say.

If there is a Yes vote, there is no way that rUK can allow an Independent Scotland to continue to use the pound.

1. It would irk the Scots as they would not be "really" separated and politically rUK would have to allow them some say in the economic affairs of both to get it through politically.

2. The nervousness towards an independent Scotland would add significant pressure to an already shaky pound and whilst that helps rUK exports its not good in the long term.

3. UK Plc's plans to repay some of the massive national debt by 2018 would be severely hampered (even allowing for transfer of some to a new Scotland) as rUK would attract significantly higher borrowing costs over the next few years due to the drag on the pound.

4. I really do think that the currency will be the absolute central point of any and all negotiations if the Yes vote carries as almost everything else relies on currency (or lack of it).

I would like to add, what a joy it has been to see the bored return to some excellent, well researched debating again :-)

I for one and going to a brunch on Friday where there are plenty of TVs to watch the outcome with great interest and yes, we have invited some Scottish people for balance.

Inselaffen Sep 16th 2014 2:27 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 
on top of that there is the very big possibility that Scotland would face a veto from Spain on joining the EU as that would add further ammunition to the Catalan push for independence.

Inselaffen Sep 16th 2014 2:29 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by shiva (Post 11406884)
I see no issue with Salmond shooting himself after a yes vote ;) but after please as he has headed and masterminded a brilliant political campaign. lets face it at the outset Yes didn't stand a chance. to have got to this point in the polls so close to the day of the vote is remarkable.
I'm not discounting the sterling job no have done in garnering yes support though

more a case of Cameron and Darling masterminding an appalling no campaign.

TheShed Sep 16th 2014 2:32 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Inselaffen (Post 11407062)
more a case of Cameron and Darling masterminding an appalling no campaign.

What he said - Salmond has not won this, the idiots from Westminster handed it on a plate by being so complacent in the early part of the campaign.

shiva Sep 16th 2014 2:45 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Eeyore (Post 11406926)
Easy to say that when you're not actually living in Scotland and you are insulated from the economic consequences.

Very but family and friends are there and as I've already said on here in the event of a yes I will change my plans and go home early. There's an element of risk everywhere and I for one should rather be part of the group helping to deal with those and sharing the risk than stand outside of it

shiva Sep 16th 2014 2:48 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by TheShed (Post 11407065)
What he said - Salmond has not won this, the idiots from Westminster handed it on a plate by being so complacent in the early part of the campaign.

Ignoring that nobody has yet won I disagree, salmond has wrapped up half of Scotland in his apparently bulletproof cape of charisma.
It has if course been helped by the others sheer ineptitude but he really does connect to voters brilliantly, probably better than any other living uk politician

shiva Sep 16th 2014 2:50 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by Inselaffen (Post 11407059)
on top of that there is the very big possibility that Scotland would face a veto from Spain on joining the EU as that would add further ammunition to the Catalan push for independence.

Catalan is an odd one as under the Spanish law it cannot separate. They need to change the law and constitution before they can leave

TheShed Sep 16th 2014 3:26 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by shiva (Post 11407087)
Ignoring that nobody has yet won I disagree, salmond has wrapped up half of Scotland in his apparently bulletproof cape of charisma.
It has if course been helped by the others sheer ineptitude but he really does connect to voters brilliantly, probably better than any other living uk politician

Fair point, he has certainly captured some hearts and minds. As someone who works in banking and economics, I do however feel that he has stretched the truth, or err'd to the positive more than some others.

If its Yes and you wanted that, good luck to you. I shall enjoy the conversation at brunch on Friday as we start to dissect either result.

shiva Sep 16th 2014 3:38 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by TheShed (Post 11407134)
Fair point, he has certainly captured some hearts and minds. As someone who works in banking and economics, I do however feel that he has stretched the truth, or err'd to the positive more than some others. he has certainly being painting a rosy picture.His vision of whats possible isnt completely distorted though but I do disagree with how to get there and how long it will take and socialist utopia it will never be, that said hes actually relatively right wing especially compared to half the snp.

If its Yes and you wanted that, good luck to you. I shall enjoy the conversation at brunch on Friday as we start to dissect either result.

If it yes it will be a long hard road, 1st job is to persuade the english that contrary to the media hype this is not and never was about them and that the vast majority of scots do not in fact hate them

mikewot Sep 16th 2014 3:49 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 
Below is great post from "Hugh Oxford 2" made in the comments section of TheScotsman.com website. Hugh sums up exactly how I feel so I've taken the liberty of copying his post so others can read it. I hope he doesn't mind.

"I started off this journey a lukewarm NO supporter, but I have completely changed my mind.
I used to think that the Union was a necessary evil, a regrettable but essential thing we needed in the modern world.
But I have examined the evidence. I have looked at all the arguments, and the historical facts. And I have completely changed my mind.
Now I believe something completely different: I believe the United Kingdom is ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC.
In the words of Burns, the British constitution is "the most glorious on earth, or perhaps that the wit of man can frame". That is as true today as it was then.
The Union is a paradigm of decency, humanity, cooperation and tolerance. For over three hundred years our nations have shared decision making, resources, risks and opportunities without ever sacrificing our identities and characteristics. We have built a prosperous and peaceful polity together. Together we are only 1% of the world's population, but we have the 6th largest economy.
The UK invented multiculturalism, not ten years ago, but centuries ago when our nations chose to work together for the common good. We have enjoyed an unprecedented period of liberty, stability and prosperity over the last three hundred years, a track record unmatched in modern history.
The idea that Salmond's crypto-socialist, centralised, isolated, bankrupt, indebted, nationalist, xenophobic semi-state built on class envy and greed offers me or my family a better place to live is so laughable it's almost offensive.The idea that we progress by building borders between us and the other people on these islands is an affront to reason.
There will be an exodus of humanity if this man and his mendacious machinations prevail, not simply because this place will be an economic wasteland devoid of opportunity and hope, but because it will be a singularly nasty and small minded place: it will exist in stark relief to the Scotland of Hume, Telford, Scott and Stevenson, the land of big men and big minds, of open hearts and open minds."

mikewot Sep 16th 2014 4:31 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by shiva (Post 11407087)
his apparently bulletproof cape of charisma.
he really does connect to voters brilliantly, probably better than any other living uk politician

Similar to Gorgeous George Galloway. They both appeal to a certain type of person.

shiva Sep 16th 2014 4:43 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by mikewot (Post 11407166)
Below is great post from "Hugh Oxford 2" made in the comments section of TheScotsman.com website. Hugh sums up exactly how I feel so I've taken the liberty of copying his post so others can read it. I hope he doesn't mind.

"I started off this journey a lukewarm NO supporter, but I have completely changed my mind.
I used to think that the Union was a necessary evil, a regrettable but essential thing we needed in the modern world.
But I have examined the evidence. I have looked at all the arguments, and the historical facts. And I have completely changed my mind.
Now I believe something completely different: I believe the United Kingdom is ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC.
In the words of Burns, the British constitution is "the most glorious on earth, or perhaps that the wit of man can frame". That is as true today as it was then.
The Union is a paradigm of decency, humanity, cooperation and tolerance. For over three hundred years our nations have shared decision making, resources, risks and opportunities without ever sacrificing our identities and characteristics. We have built a prosperous and peaceful polity together. Together we are only 1% of the world's population, but we have the 6th largest economy.
The UK invented multiculturalism, not ten years ago, but centuries ago when our nations chose to work together for the common good. We have enjoyed an unprecedented period of liberty, stability and prosperity over the last three hundred years, a track record unmatched in modern history.

i agree right up to here

The idea that Salmond's crypto-socialist, centralised, isolated, bankrupt, indebted, nationalist, xenophobic semi-state built on class envy and greed offers me or my family a better place to live is so laughable it's almost offensive.that in itself is quite offensive, i'm not getting th xenophobia bit sorry The idea that we progress by building borders between us and the other people on these islands is an affront to reason.

as is the notion of a non representative government with full control

There will be an exodus of humanity if this man and his mendacious machinations prevail, not simply because this place will be an economic wasteland devoid of opportunity and hope, but because it will be a singularly nasty and small minded place: with an attitude like that it will be. One thing I dont get is its the No voters who proclaim such a love and in the next breath accuse all and sundry and cant pack fast enough. Very reminiscent of the tea party regarding Obamait will exist in stark relief to the Scotland of Hume, Telford, Scott and Stevenson, the land of big men and big minds, of open hearts and open minds."

now you see he was making sense to me for a while and then went all tea bagger on us.

If there was a way for scotland to have full control of its country and maintain that relationship then I'm all for it.

Unfortunately devo max was removed as another option and better together seem hell bent on destroying the relationship they proclaim so loudly to love.

Discounting the nutters, every yes voter I know wishes to remain in a close relationship with the uk, we will still share all that history and an island after all.
Some like myself have english partners and "half" english children.

But I cannot in all good conscience argue against a better and fairer form of democracy for Scotland

I also see no good solid reason to suddenly reinvent and resurrect ancient animosity and hatreds. There really isnt a good reason for it beyond fear, jealousy, inconvenience and just plain petty human behavior.

I dont have to hate my neighbor and wish his demise just because I believe we should each manage our own gardens and households.

i also dont hate my ex girlfriends just because we separated but instead still keep in touch with them and wish them only well in their lives. And if they ever need any help I am only too glad to be able to.

Bahtatboy Sep 16th 2014 4:45 am

Re: Scottish Independence
 

Originally Posted by shiva (Post 11407150)
If it yes it will be a long hard road, 1st job is to persuade the english that contrary to the media hype this is not and never was about them and that the vast majority of scots do not in fact hate them

If necessary, I hope that works. As someone who considers myself British first and English a long-way second, I really hope there'll be mutual support. But not if it costs us a penny!


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