No deal Brexit

Old Oct 14th 2018, 3:03 pm
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Default No deal Brexit

We'll see if it's fake news after all!

Update: 'Politico understands a Brexit divorce deal has been reached *at negotiator level* (per three sources). Does not mean political agreement has been reached'

Update: no deal deal so far. Just an agreement more talks are needed. So much for sudden Sunday movements.

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Old Oct 15th 2018, 4:14 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

I'm definitely of the opinion that it's irrelevant what the deal is.

When anything is created it will cross the line incomplete with the remainder being fudged / worked out on the fly. Then there are the issues with the 80% that was completed pre-going live. There'll be lots of issues in that chunk too, they'll need ironing out.

In reality a no deal Brexit could mean the priorities get prioritised instead of focusing on cod numbers in the channel, they might come up with a temporary bridging tarriff / trading agreement (for example).
However, it would be wise to have some shit in place to fall back on and adjust as time passes and experience grows.
Monitoring what's needed and not needed, changes that are going to be better for us would be wise. The EU will certainly be doing exactly the same and will want to make adjustments.

Can't be perfect from the off or it will never happen. One day we'll look back and realise it was good it was only 2 years to get out, if that time was unlimited we'd be Freddy ****ed.
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Old Oct 15th 2018, 6:08 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
I'm definitely of the opinion that it's irrelevant what the deal is.

When anything is created it will cross the line incomplete with the remainder being fudged / worked out on the fly. Then there are the issues with the 80% that was completed pre-going live. There'll be lots of issues in that chunk too, they'll need ironing out.

In reality a no deal Brexit could mean the priorities get prioritised instead of focusing on cod numbers in the channel, they might come up with a temporary bridging tarriff / trading agreement (for example).
However, it would be wise to have some shit in place to fall back on and adjust as time passes and experience grows.
Monitoring what's needed and not needed, changes that are going to be better for us would be wise. The EU will certainly be doing exactly the same and will want to make adjustments.

Can't be perfect from the off or it will never happen. One day we'll look back and realise it was good it was only 2 years to get out, if that time was unlimited we'd be Freddy ****ed.
I don't doubt that the relationship with the EU will be constantly evolving even with us on the outside, partly because the EU itself is a constantly evolving entity. The real issue is how the changes can be accommodated. For example, much of the furore in the past month has been over whether the backstop is time limited or not. EU keeps saying no. UK says there must be a time limit to it, because otherwise we're in a position where we have to ask the EU for permission to end the backstop, and all they have to do is to say no, so the basis any future negotiations between the UK and the EU would be heavily restricted with us effectively asking the EU for permission in just about anything. That's why the hard Brexiteers are going around screaming about vassalage and colony status (and they are right).

Anyway, I suspect an official 'no deal' will be the formal outcome if only because there is absolutely no deal of any kind that the EU can offer and which can also conceivably pass Parliament, but I also do think there are multiple small little emergency deals to cover the critical areas that are already being put together in case the big deal collapses. So it won't be a true no deal crash out.

Looking back over the past two and a half years it's amazing what a roller coaster ride it has been. But every step taken has only brought us closer to a no deal. For example, Gina Miller's lawsuit that forced the government to accept a meaningful vote in Parliament on the final deal guaranteed this outcome, which is ironic. Prior to that May could conceivably have signed a deal without Parliamentary approval. The botched GE last year left her dependent on DUP, which once again nudged us closer to a no deal. Corbyn's takeover of Labour and the loss of so many moderates also removed many MPs that might have supported a compromise deal. And it goes on and on. But I'm not too worried, for the reason I gave in the first paragraph.

Interestingly enough, it was Mervyn King who said that the government should have gone straight to no deal planning and just negotiated with the EU over specific critical areas, like a patchwork of separate deals, rather than one big grand deal. Had we done so from the get go, the EU would have been on the defensive and then the impetus would have been on the EU to compromise more especially with the NI border.

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Old Oct 15th 2018, 7:03 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

There's an interesting analysis of possible outcomes here: Everything you need to know about the final weeks of Brexit in five minutes
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Old Oct 15th 2018, 10:57 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Madame May to make a statement to Parliament this afternoon on Brexit negotiations. She usually only does this after EU summits, so this is out of the ordinary.

With the scheduled meetings of the EU bigwigs this Wednesday and Thursday largely in part to discuss Brexit, this is very interesting, especially following yesterday's failed emergency meeting between Raab and Barnier.
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Old Oct 15th 2018, 3:50 pm
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Madame May to make a statement to Parliament this afternoon on Brexit negotiations. She usually only does this after EU summits, so this is out of the ordinary.

With the scheduled meetings of the EU bigwigs this Wednesday and Thursday largely in part to discuss Brexit, this is very interesting, especially following yesterday's failed emergency meeting between Raab and Barnier.
And it told us nothing.
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Old Oct 15th 2018, 8:48 pm
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
And it told us nothing.
Apart from how weak and on the EU's side May really is, refusing to answer time based questions by Boris, IDS and JRM?

She needs to go.
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Old Oct 16th 2018, 5:16 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by IKnowNothing View Post
She needs to go.
To be replaced by who?
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Old Oct 16th 2018, 5:48 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
To be replaced by who?
David Davis.
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Old Oct 16th 2018, 5:57 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
To be replaced by who?
My guess is Geoffrey Cox. Did you see his rousing pro-brexit speech at the Tory Conference?
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Old Oct 16th 2018, 6:16 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

I veer back and forth from wanting May to go to keeping her.

Instability is the last thing we need now. And we cannot be unsympathetic to wanting a deal to mitigate the impacts of Brexit as much as possible - a badly managed no deal has the potential to really ***** things up for a lot of people. We're talking about ordinary people in ordinary jobs. May made a lot of mistakes, maybe too many, but hindsight is only a wonderful fantasy and I can't fault her for aiming for a deal that would see as frictionless trade as possible while keeping NI and ending FOM and it sounds like she got 90-95% of the way there before the whole thing blew up over NI (which it always was going to). There's no doubt the EU is trying to use NI as a pawn to severely restrict Britain's competitiveness vis a vis the EU in a post Brexit trade treaty.

We will see what happens. What's telling, however, is that despite the keep calm statement to Parliament yesterday, what other figures are saying. Angela Merkel is now suggesting a no deal seems likely. Which says a lot, coming from her. William Hague wrote a commentary in today's DT supporting May but also strongly implied a no deal seems to be the likely outcome. When you have Mundell and Davidson, both pragmatic pro-European Scots, firmly opposed to a separate backstop for NI only, you know how bad and unlikely it is going to happen.

But it is too easy for us laymen to scream at May to see the handwriting on the wall. She has pressures and knowledge that we don't. The sensible thing is for May to keep pursuing a deal (while sticking to the red lines) and simultaneously planning for a no deal, in the hopes that something will break through at the last minute. But I suspect that with the EU making a lot of noises about planning for a no deal, much more now than they did before, they won't budge one iota.

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Old Oct 16th 2018, 6:28 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
I veer back and forth from wanting May to go to keeping her.

Instability is the last thing we need now. And we cannot be unsympathetic to wanting a deal to mitigate the impacts of Brexit as much as possible - a badly managed no deal has the potential to really ***** things up for a lot of people. We're talking about ordinary people in ordinary jobs. May made a lot of mistakes, maybe too many, but hindsight is only a wonderful fantasy and I can't fault her for aiming for a deal that would see as frictionless trade as possible while keeping NI and ending FOM and it sounds like she got 90-95% of the way there before the whole thing blew up over NI (which it always was going to). There's no doubt the EU is trying to use NI as a pawn to severely restrict Britain's competitiveness vis a vis the EU in a post Brexit trade treaty.

We will see what happens. What's telling, however, is that despite the keep calm statement to Parliament yesterday, what other figures are saying. Angela Merkel is now suggesting a no deal seems likely. Which says a lot, coming from her. William Hague wrote a commentary in today's DT supporting May but also strongly implied a no deal seems to be the likely outcome. When you have Mundell and Davidson, both pragmatic pro-European Scots, firmly opposed to a separate backstop for NI only, you know how bad and unlikely it is going to happen.

But it is too easy for us laymen to scream at May to see the handwriting on the wall. She has pressures and knowledge that we don't. The sensible thing is for May to keep pursuing a deal (while sticking to the red lines) and simultaneously planning for a no deal, in the hopes that something will break through at the last minute. But I suspect that with the EU making a lot of noises about planning for a no deal, much more now than they did before, they won't budge one iota.
Good post, I agree with it all. She's not only receiving pressure from the public, the EU and the opposition but her own party as well. I think she's been pretty steadfast and direct through a lot of this. She's not going to appeal to large swathes of people but there are issues about Brexit in her mind and the minds of party members and the public that she's clearly pursuing, which I think is positive.
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Old Oct 16th 2018, 6:31 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by IKnowNothing View Post
David Davis.
Ah yes, the man constantly trying to do what he can to cause problems and undermine any real plan to exit. A superb choice.
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Old Oct 16th 2018, 7:43 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

and there is also a good likelihood that this "Material Change" will lead to Scotland's Departure from the Union of 1707
Will we soon see
"The United Kingdom of England and Wales" ?
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Old Oct 16th 2018, 7:56 am
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Default Re: No deal Brexit

Originally Posted by scot47 View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

and there is also a good likelihood that this "Material Change" will lead to Scotland's Departure from the Union of 1707
Will we soon see
"The United Kingdom of England and Wales" ?
Every cloud has a silver lining.
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