Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by weasel decentral
(Post 12958594)
It's only going to be seen retrospectively the impact - not just deaths but the entire impact including financially. Anything at this stage is purely extrapolation of part data. I'd like to think that the motivation to protect people that created the lockdown can be seen that it was the best of intention, despite what history may or may not show later,
One thing I have learned that as an exercise for detecting whoppers and knob ends covid-19 is only second to a Trump failed election campaign. If you take the UK definition of a death, it's anyone who died within 28 days of a positive test result. So, you could be completely cured and free of covid on day 14, hit by a bus on day 27 and be reported as a covid death. Even some of my car crash deaths might be covid deaths... or you may be dead twice under both numbers. It is naïve to assume the data is right. Same for the US with the additional payments to private hospitals for COVID patients, very tempting to classify everyone dying from covid, when they died with covid. We just don't know. I'm being objective on the data. I cannot help this as my job is to be a professional sceptic and not believe numbers without questioning - especially fast growing ones. Pretty sure Trump didn't win though as I'm not a complete bell-end. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by NorthernLad
(Post 12958612)
I've given up on caring about this anymore, I believe little of what is reported on the news as it takes too much effort to figure it out and what is being twisted/manipulated to justify the headlines that make it feel like end of days.
'Another 1,564 coronavirus deaths have been reported in the UK - the highest daily figure since the pandemic began following the late addition of some data going as far back as May...' https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...1-564-12186910 I don't understand why the UK government are not putting people in the field hospitals. This would be my first place to put them to make it look worse. There is just so much conflicting strategies, incompetence and politics all over it. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by Millhouse
(Post 12958614)
That's right. Only history will give us the facts on this. We have no idea the number of people shoved into poverty and early death etc. as a result of the covid response vs. actual directly related covid deaths.
If you take the UK definition of a death, it's anyone who died within 28 days of a positive test result. So, you could be completely cured and free of covid on day 14, hit by a bus on day 27 and be reported as a covid death. Even some of my car crash deaths might be covid deaths... or you may be dead twice under both numbers. It is naïve to assume the data is right. Same for the US with the additional payments to private hospitals for COVID patients, very tempting to classify everyone dying from covid, when they died with covid. We just don't know. I'm being objective on the data. I cannot help this as my job is to be a professional sceptic and not believe numbers without questioning - especially fast growing ones. Pretty sure Trump didn't win though as I'm not a complete bell-end. It's the people who have fully formed unchanging opinions that I have an issue with - be it on not wearing a mask or to the other extreme of anti-vaxxers or similar. The changing guidance of governments are generally portrayed as incompetence rather than an evolution of the knowledge they have, though obviously there is incompetence also. Everybody is analyzing from a told you so perspective, that's what gets to me. On the positive side, this chaos is bringing change - to the extreme we could see the death of city high streets and business districts, or perhaps the revival of high streets if lack of traffic lead to pedestrianisation. Work from home has had a huge personal benefit for me, so little wasted travel time and flights for business meetings that could have been a phone call. So many businesses have realized how much unnecessary bullshit is wrapped around the average working day, I see some pretty savage corporate slashing coming down the pipeline - especially from companies where managers are not trying to look busy. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by Millhouse
(Post 12958614)
If you take the UK definition of a death, it's anyone who died within 28 days of a positive test result. So, you could be completely cured and free of covid on day 14, hit by a bus on day 27 and be reported as a covid death. Even some of my car crash deaths might be covid deaths... or you may be dead twice under both numbers. It is naïve to assume the data is right. Same for the US with the additional payments to private hospitals for COVID patients, very tempting to classify everyone dying from covid, when they died with covid. We just don't know..
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Re: Global Corona Death predictions
[QUOTE=Millhouse;12958614If you take the UK definition of a death, it's anyone who died within 28 days of a positive test result. [/QUOTE]
UK government figures are now deaths within 60 days of a positive test. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
It doesn't really matter. A death is a death, no-one (I think) is claiming that fake death data is being issued. So these people really died. And more people really died in 2020, compared to the average, than any time since 1940. If your position is that these people didn't die of covid then you have to explain what they did die of. And then explain why whatever that thing is, is at record-breaking levels in 2020. And also wonder why that thing hasn't been mentioned at all by anyone, even though it has caused record-breaking deaths.
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Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by csdf
(Post 12958665)
It doesn't really matter. A death is a death, no-one (I think) is claiming that fake death data is being issued. So these people really died. And more people really died in 2020, compared to the average, than any time since 1940. If your position is that these people didn't die of covid then you have to explain what they did die of. And then explain why whatever that thing is, is at record-breaking levels in 2020. And also wonder why that thing hasn't been mentioned at all by anyone, even though it has caused record-breaking deaths.
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Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by csdf
(Post 12958665)
It doesn't really matter. A death is a death, no-one (I think) is claiming that fake death data is being issued. So these people really died. And more people really died in 2020, compared to the average, than any time since 1940. If your position is that these people didn't die of covid then you have to explain what they did die of. And then explain why whatever that thing is, is at record-breaking levels in 2020. And also wonder why that thing hasn't been mentioned at all by anyone, even though it has caused record-breaking deaths.
The bottom line is that the death rate in total has gone way up over the last year. There are a whole bunch of excess deaths. If it is not covid, then something else is killing lots of people. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by weasel decentral
(Post 12958668)
What's the 2020 rate compared to the typical average?
"Excess deaths, the number of fatalities above the five-year average, rose to almost 91,000 across the UK in 2020 – the highest on record since the second world war." This figure does tally pretty closely with the number of deaths attributed to covid during that period. Comparisons with the spanish flu aren't particularly apt because the population was smaller then (a point it does make at the end). But it's worth considering that covid deaths tended to come in waves. So at peak, in many areas, covid was accounting for 50%+ of all the deaths occurring. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by csdf
(Post 12958658)
Excess deaths in the UK are the highest since 1940. Are you saying that there has coincidentally been a massive increase in car accidents that has caused this excess death figure? If not, what else is causing all these excess deaths?
In absolute or percentage terms? There’s a lot more people now, so hope that’s in percentage terms. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by Millhouse
(Post 12958674)
what happened in 1940?
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Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by captainflack
(Post 12958673)
https://www.theguardian.com/society/...wales-says-ons
"Excess deaths, the number of fatalities above the five-year average, rose to almost 91,000 across the UK in 2020 – the highest on record since the second world war." This figure does tally pretty closely with the number of deaths attributed to covid during that period. Comparisons with the spanish flu aren't particularly apt because the population was smaller then (a point it does make at the end). But it's worth considering that covid deaths tended to come in waves. So at peak, in many areas, covid was accounting for 50%+ of all the deaths occurring. |
Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by Millhouse
(Post 12958677)
if there are 90 k excess deaths, and 84k covid deaths. The implied conclusion is that 100pct of excess deaths are due to covid. If we unpack that, the first question needs to be what is average variation in the background death rate. The standard deviation if you will. I’m not saying people don’t die from it, but we shouldn’t forget that almost everyone doesn’t.
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Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by weasel decentral
(Post 12958679)
A five year average is going to pretty much cover any standard deviation
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Re: Global Corona Death predictions
Originally Posted by Millhouse
(Post 12958761)
Fair enough. So let's assume the background number is perfectly down the middle. Interesting that if we were to remove COVID from the numbers we would otherwise have had a perfectly average year. Clearly that makes no sense given that we know there is a change in the death rate due to the covid measures that are not covid related.
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