Go Back  British Expats > Living & Moving Abroad > Middle East > The Sand Pit
Reload this Page >

Global Corona Death predictions

View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 – 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 – 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 – 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Global Corona Death predictions

Old Mar 29th 2020, 7:11 am
  #1  
Millhouse is not a meme
Thread Starter
 
Millhouse's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,447
Millhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond repute
Default Global Corona Death predictions

We are currently at around 30,000 Corona deaths to date. To put this into perspective, this compares to around 160,000 deaths per day (on average) around the world. i.e. 14.5m since the Corona was first acknowledged. Poll is… what will be the total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting/ caring:



1. <50,000

2. 50,000- 100,000

3. 100,000 – 250,000

4. 250,000 – 500,000

5. 500,000 – 1m

6. 1m +

[I voted for 100-250k] ... less than the Syrian War.

Last edited by Millhouse; Mar 29th 2020 at 7:13 am.
Millhouse is offline  
Old Mar 30th 2020, 4:49 am
  #2  
WWLLCJD?
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Location: Dubai
Posts: 24,636
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

You're like a little yellow Trump. Maximum deny.
Scamp is offline  
Old Mar 30th 2020, 6:00 am
  #3  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Jan 2011
Location: Dubai
Posts: 3,467
jam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond reputejam25mack has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

6. The Yanks will smash the number right up.
jam25mack is offline  
Old Mar 30th 2020, 6:20 am
  #4  
Millhouse is not a meme
Thread Starter
 
Millhouse's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,447
Millhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
You're like a little yellow Trump. Maximum deny.

Millhouse is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2020, 4:30 pm
  #5  
Gold-Helmeted Member
 
captainflack's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Setubal-ish
Posts: 646
captainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

I would say at least a million. This really hasn't got started yet.

So far, we're mainly focusing on the first countries to get it - China, Spain, Italy, Germany, UK, US. These are all countries with reasonable resources in terms of health, sanitation, government communications, etc. They can lock down (though the long term economic damage will be massive) and should be able broadly to enforce those lockdowns, and at the very least feed people.

But you need to factor in other countries.

Brazil's president Bolsonaro is a massive asshat, he's one of the axis of idiocy (Trump and friends) and out there on the fringe right. He's basically saying it's all a left wing plot, everyone should go out and carry on as normal, and his moronic followers (I have some on my facebook, as my mrs is Brazilian) basically just parrot and do whatever he says. They've got 200 million population, lack the resources of Europe and the US, and have a government that is basically doing nothing. The mortality rate is hard to pin down (how many people have little or no symptoms?) but a fair guess is around 1%. Some suggest that up to 5% need critical care. Very quickly, once your emergency beds are all occupied, your death rate is going to jump from 1% to 5%. So it's not unreasonable to think that you could have over a million dead, just in Brazil, even if less than half the population get infected. And same social issues as Italy, lots of families with old folk in same house (my wife's family has mum in mid 60s, grandma in 90s).

Then consider all the other countries that lack the resources, India, Africa, etc. with various mixtures of poverty, corruption, lack of authority, lack of education, etc.


captainflack is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2020, 6:13 pm
  #6  
 
nonthaburi's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2010
Location: Buraydah , Saudi Arabia
Posts: 2,570
nonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond reputenonthaburi has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by captainflack View Post
I would say at least a million. This really hasn't got started yet.

So far, we're mainly focusing on the first countries to get it - China, Spain, Italy, Germany, UK, US. These are all countries with reasonable resources in terms of health, sanitation, government communications, etc. They can lock down (though the long term economic damage will be massive) and should be able broadly to enforce those lockdowns, and at the very least feed people.

But you need to factor in other countries.

Brazil's president Bolsonaro is a massive asshat, he's one of the axis of idiocy (Trump and friends) and out there on the fringe right. He's basically saying it's all a left wing plot, everyone should go out and carry on as normal, and his moronic followers (I have some on my facebook, as my mrs is Brazilian) basically just parrot and do whatever he says. They've got 200 million population, lack the resources of Europe and the US, and have a government that is basically doing nothing. The mortality rate is hard to pin down (how many people have little or no symptoms?) but a fair guess is around 1%. Some suggest that up to 5% need critical care. Very quickly, once your emergency beds are all occupied, your death rate is going to jump from 1% to 5%. So it's not unreasonable to think that you could have over a million dead, just in Brazil, even if less than half the population get infected. And same social issues as Italy, lots of families with old folk in same house (my wife's family has mum in mid 60s, grandma in 90s).

Then consider all the other countries that lack the resources, India, Africa, etc. with various mixtures of poverty, corruption, lack of authority, lack of education, etc.
Projections for if the UK did nothing were around 500,000 dead, compared to 17,000 a year average regular flu deaths. And that's not taking into account people with other conditions who die as well because they can't get health care because the NHS is so busy.

So over a million for Brazil sounds reasonable, if they don't do anything about it.

Many other countries around the world could be in serious trouble. India , Pakistan, Bangladesh come to mind. Also a lot of Africa.
nonthaburi is offline  
Old Apr 3rd 2020, 6:58 pm
  #7  
BE Forum Addict
 
Boomhauer's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 4,460
Boomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

100K - 250K
Boomhauer is offline  
Old Apr 24th 2020, 10:12 am
  #8  
Gold-Helmeted Member
 
captainflack's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Setubal-ish
Posts: 646
captainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond reputecaptainflack has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Update, the scores on the doors says 191,000 deaths worldwide so far. That was just three weeks after the original post.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So those 250k predictions from three weeks back look, erm..., pretty optimistic.


captainflack is offline  
Old Apr 24th 2020, 1:23 pm
  #9  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,327
DXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by captainflack View Post
Update, the scores on the doors says 191,000 deaths worldwide so far. That was just three weeks after the original post.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So those 250k predictions from three weeks back look, erm..., pretty optimistic.
Yeah. And the majority were people with already one foot in the grave. Average age of death is, what, 80? The Los Angeles health official admitted based on their antibody study in the city that the real fatality rate for the general population is closer to .0-.2%, making it slightly worse than the typical flu season.

Comparing the actual year to year death numbers with the COVID-19 deaths will be interesting.
DXBtoDOH is offline  
Old Apr 25th 2020, 12:02 am
  #10  
BE Forum Addict
 
Boomhauer's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 4,460
Boomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Yeah. And the majority were people with already one foot in the grave. Average age of death is, what, 80? The Los Angeles health official admitted based on their antibody study in the city that the real fatality rate for the general population is closer to .0-.2%, making it slightly worse than the typical flu season.

Comparing the actual year to year death numbers with the COVID-19 deaths will be interesting.
Accuracy of antibody tests have been called into question because they are prone to giving false positives.
Boomhauer is offline  
Old Apr 25th 2020, 12:29 pm
  #11  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 3,327
DXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond reputeDXBtoDOH has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Boomhauer View Post
Accuracy of antibody tests have been called into question because they are prone to giving false positives.
Shrugs. More and more good news (relatively speaking) coming out everywhere and this is the best the shriekers and doom and gloom and sky is falling people can do?
DXBtoDOH is offline  
Old Apr 25th 2020, 5:49 pm
  #12  
BE Forum Addict
 
Boomhauer's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 4,460
Boomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond reputeBoomhauer has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Shrugs. More and more good news (relatively speaking) coming out everywhere and this is the best the shriekers and doom and gloom and sky is falling people can do?
Being skeptical is not the same as being chicken little.
Boomhauer is offline  
Old Apr 26th 2020, 4:55 am
  #13  
WWLLCJD?
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Location: Dubai
Posts: 24,636
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Shrugs. More and more good news (relatively speaking) coming out everywhere and this is the best the shriekers and doom and gloom and sky is falling people can do?
Let's hope nobody in your family or circle of friends dies from this eh.
Scamp is offline  
Old May 5th 2020, 2:37 pm
  #14  
Millhouse is not a meme
Thread Starter
 
Millhouse's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 15,447
Millhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

To recap, the question was "Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?"

I voted for 100-250k. We have only just passed 250k but it seems that lockdowns are being released around the world to restart economies. The next phase will be to stop reporting the numbers and media-fatigue kicks in as people decide that they value their freedom and jobs more than they do their neighbour's grandparents (as of course, it'll never happen to your own).

We are rapidly going to transition from reporting deaths to job losses and enjoy the new normal of half-arsed social distancing and cheap but socially unacceptable holidays.




Millhouse is offline  
Old May 5th 2020, 4:41 pm
  #15  
Lt (R)
 
Pulaski's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 49,407
Pulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
To recap, the question was "Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?"

I voted for 100-250k. We have only just passed 250k but it seems that lockdowns are being released around the world to restart economies. ......
I "cheated" by waiting until now to vote, and I am totally comfortable voting for 1million plus. Many of the countries that are now considering "opening up" (UK, Spain, Italy, etc.) are still reporting significant numbers of new infections every day, and the US, which never really "locked down" in any meaningful sense is also talking about "opening up" when the number of new daily infections in the US has barely even leveled off. ..... Then if you look at other countries, in the past week or so numbers have really started to escalate in Russia and Brazil, and from what I have read, the number of infections in Brazil are apparently severely understated. Then there are countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria, where there is a massive population, considerable poverty, and large cities where the idea of "social distancing" being even possible, is a joke. 2-3 yeas from now I could see fatalities easily reaching 3m-5m.

Last edited by Pulaski; May 5th 2020 at 4:43 pm.
Pulaski is offline  

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.