Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

a policy that seems to be matched to the available hospital capacity

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

All I'm learning from the UK at the moment is that you can't trust Northerners to not spoil it for everyone.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

Yes, that's right. Though the lesson from Europe seems to be that things can very rapidly get out of hand unless you're prepared to act in advance of things getting too bad. It's not like Paris and Liverpool and Madrid didn't also say "our policy is to keep things open, because our hospitals are fine and deaths are low".

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

Scousers getting ready for lockdown.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

I've just had to call scouse land as there is some issue with my new passport application. I thought the line was bad but then remembered the crackles were her accent.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

FTFY.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

Was probably both. The UK phone systems are a joke. I was in butt**** nowhere the other day (RAK) and had 4G to try and find my way back to civilization. I don't get phone signal in the UK if I have the cheek to move from Mother's lounge to the kitchen.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

My friend Craig Murray has some thoughts on the virus
"Covid-19 and the Political Utility of Fear "

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk
Mainstream career politicians routinely brush off Craig and his ideas. "The man is mad," said my MSP. I think he is remarkably sane. He is the one who dared to say, "The Emperor is naked ! He has no clothes !"

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

At this stage, I think most people agree that the mortality rate is lower than initially feared, particularly for younger people. But it still seems likely that if left un-managed, the virus is so contagious that it would fill up hospitals until there's no room left for anyone else. The UK statistics suggest that 6% of all covid19 cases for adults aged below 65 were admitted to hospital at some point. 6% of 22 million people is nearly 1.5mm people needing hospital treatment, most of whom would need it in the rough same time. The only way it might not be as bad as this is if you believe that the true hospitalisation rates are actually much lower, because of the poor state of testing in England. But that's just a belief, with no evidence, so it seems a bit risky to just go for it and hope for the best.

44,077 adults < 65 admitted to hospital in England to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/heal...eaName=England
740,262 adults tested positive: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/case...eaName=England

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

The UK has one of the highest testing rates for a large country, but annecdotally there has been the suggestion that the actual exposure/ antibody rates may be considerably higher than the reported infection rates. A study in New York (one of the orginal US hotspots) published as long ago as June IIRC, suggested that the actual exposure was 10 times the reported number of positive tests, and I have seen at least an annedotal assertion by a medical professional that this may also be true in the UK. This may be complicated by a recently published study by a Swedish university that found that 30% of people tested had antibodies to covid-19 that appear to predate the current pandemic, and are thought to have originated from exposure to another coronavirus, such as the common cold.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

I got the denominator wrong (I was counting all cases rather than all adults under 65). Fixing that raises the hospitalization rate to about 9%.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

You were right on the half-arsed social distancing and socially-unacceptable (influencer) holidays in Dubai, but slightly wide of the mark on the numbers and media fatigue. Are you still holding onto the "more people die of car crashes so what's the big fuss?" position?

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

Yes. The way deaths are recorded is very questionable. The fact is that it's just not a deadly as we first thought.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

It's only going to be seen retrospectively the impact - not just deaths but the entire impact including financially. Anything at this stage is purely extrapolation of part data. I'd like to think that the motivation to protect people that created the lockdown can be seen that it was the best of intention, despite what history may or may not show later,

One thing I have learned that as an exercise for detecting whoppers and knob ends covid-19 is only second to a Trump failed election campaign.

Re: Global Corona Death predictions
 

I've given up on caring about this anymore, I believe little of what is reported on the news as it takes too much effort to figure it out and what is being twisted/manipulated to justify the headlines that make it feel like end of days.

'Another 1,564 coronavirus deaths have been reported in the UK - the highest daily figure since the pandemic began following the late addition of some data going as far back as May...'

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...1-564-12186910