mikelincs

Just moved, but first port of call was to fill in the registration paperwork.

iggle

I have!

scrubbedexpat141

I have.

captainflack

Turkey first started the process of joining the EU in 1987. There is zero prospect of Turkey joining the EU anytime soon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Access...European_Union

Negotiations were started on 3 October 2005[6] and out of 35 Chapters necessary to complete the accession process, 15 have been opened and 1 has been closed.[7] The membership bid has become a major controversy of the ongoing enlargement of the European Union.[8]
Current major opponents of Turkey's accession are Germany (though there is some internal dispute), and EUC president Jean-Claude Juncker. France and the United Kingdom support Turkey's accession, though only the UK has been continuous in its support.

As with TTIP, also a rallying cry of the outers, consider again the inconvenient truth... the UK is and has been the staunchest supporter of Turkey joining the EU, even before the Tories took power.In other words, if Britain left the EU, you're far more likely to get an ultra-free-market trade deal like TTIP at some point in the future, as well as liberalization with Turkey, perhaps involving some kind of mass immigration.

For Turkey to join, even if it met all the criteria and concluded all its negotiations, it still needs a unanimous vote of EU members - so the UK could block it, even if Germany and others changed their tune. Same with TTIP. Cyprus is an EU member, and would likely demand a Turkish withdrawl from the divided island, or it'll veto Turkey. Turkey at present is going in the other direction in terms of press freedom and governance, so it's really less likely to pass the required tests, or satisfy the existing members than ever before.

The leave campaign brings this up because they know Turkish membership would be almost universally unpopular (even with remainers). But like Cameron's loony stuff about the threat of WW3 and ISIS rubbing their hands at the prospect of the UK leaving, it's utter nonsense and simply not going to happen regardless. The debate on both sides seems to have descended into throwing ridiculous scare stories around about war and terrorism presumably because so many people are turned off and unenthused about economic issues they're probably don't think matter much.

Outside the EU, it's anyone's guess, but something like TTIP with the US as well as some kind of deal with Turkey are more likely, not less, because it is the UK that is the biggest supporter of both of these things within the EU. Inside the EU it cannot do such deals, but outside it would be free to do the kind of deals it wants the EU to do on its own.

EDIT: Also, there is no entitlement legally for Romanians or any other EU citizens to be in the UK beyond 90 days if they're not qualifying (i.e. working, living on own funds). It's up to the UK to deport such people. The efforts to deport both EU and non-EU citizens who should not be in the UK are nowhere near close to effective.

Millhouse

Ah, the veto. We use that a lot don't we. It's very effective.

Eeyore

You may not wish to refer to yourself as European, but you are. The word "European" refers to natives or inhabitants of Europe. The continent of Europe encompasses the UK whether you like it or not, and will continue to do so even if Brexit happens.

As for that meme you posted about "laws made in Brussels", it's meaningless without proper context - but of course it's not intended to be properly contextualised, it's just meant to act as as dog-whistle for the hard-of-thinking who actually believe that "faceless Brussels bureaucrats" impose laws on the UK purely at a whim.

In the hypothetical world where the UK was, in 2016, not a member of the EU, what would the UK's socioeconomic and sociopolitical situations actually be? You need to lay out the state of the UK's trading agreements with the EU in this hypothetical world, the state of the UK's economy, and so on. You need to create a valid context for asking the question.

And this is where it all falls down, isn't it? Because you'll say "Well, everything in this hypothetical alternative-timeline UK is so great, there would be absolutely no benefit to joining the EU". Which is why I stated that the question has no intellectual validity. You would just invent your own fantasy scenario to justify whatever position you wanted to take.

The fact that you think it's an "incredibly clever question" speaks volumes (but doesn't actually tell me anything I didn't already know).

captainflack

If it's about cracking down on offshore tax havens or tighter pollution rules, you betcha we use our veto.

If it's about ultra-free-market trade deals with the US or expansion of the EU eastwards... Britain is the one at the front pushing these things through.

Fortunately others in Europe do veto those things on our behalf.

100 quid says turkey won't be an EU member in next 10 years. Any takers?

iggle

Watch Brexit the movie, i think it perfectly describes you at one point, the snoby elite who thinks they are more cleverer than the "people"

Eeyore

In other words, you can't actually answer my questions, and you probably don't like me using long words like "contextualisation"?

Brexit The Movie isn't any kind of even-handed assessment of the pros and cons. It's a piece of pro-Leave propaganda that shamelessly propagates the standard Euromyths. Still, I'm sure it told you what you wanted to hear, and facts be damned.

scrubbedexpat141

You often post really good stuff but this is about as patronising as I think anyone's ever been.

No need to be such a knob to anyone (even if it is Iggle), the beauty is that people have different opinions and people constantly trying to belittle each other in this thread is really, really ****ing boring.

Millhouse

Not as patronising as his "contextualisation" bit.

iggle

Eeyore

If you say so. Doesn't stop it all being perfectly valid, does it?

Posting simplistic context-free memes as if they prove anything is a complete waste of time, as is stating a question like "would you join the EU now" without outlining the socioeconomic and sociopolitical situation of the alternate-timeline UK.

I'm sure that, like me, he's big enough and ugly enough to cope with it.

iggle

I am a 9 out of 10. So no not, ugly

Inselaffen

I see now that Osborne is trying to scare people saying Brexit will cause a 1 year recession.
Has he started campaigning for Brexit? I'm sure many would happily accept Brexit if it only led to a 1 year recession. Small price to pay.