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The Brexit; Are you in or out?

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The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Old Feb 14th 2016, 4:04 am
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Default The Brexit; Are you in or out?

So..It's looming.

The Daily Mail is telling us that its the start of the 4th Reich....where as the BBC keeps telling us that the EU is good for us.

If this vote happens, could be a dramatic shift for future Governments.

I myself would vote to leave. I cannot understand the life of me how an unelected government can determine laws of Britain. I won't touch immigration (which is a very hot subject right now) etc etc...I just don't believe a German/Luxumberg/Frenchie or any other nationality can dictate to us our laws.
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Old Feb 14th 2016, 4:12 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

The basic issue of the EU is that the benefits are mostly intangible and hard to quantify, while the costs are very easy to count.

On balance, despite the uncertainly, I think leaving would be OK. the bits we want (trade agreements) can still be negotiated on a bilateral basis and we would be able to drop some of the costs. It is, however, not as simple as it seems.

I also think the vote will be to stay in.
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Old Feb 14th 2016, 4:49 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
The basic issue of the EU is that the benefits are mostly intangible and hard to quantify, while the costs are very easy to count.

On balance, despite the uncertainly, I think leaving would be OK. the bits we want (trade agreements) can still be negotiated on a bilateral basis and we would be able to drop some of the costs. It is, however, not as simple as it seems.

I also think the vote will be to stay in.
I believe the EU had the best intentions, and also as an idea it’s a very good one.

But with the same as communism, it just doesn’t work because of the nature of humans. How can a country let’s say, Lithuania with a population of 3million, compete and have the same economical currency as Germany. The average wage in Lith E400’s, and the cost of living is very similar to Germany. (Since the Change in currency) It just doesn’t work.

Anyway, for Britain’s own sake, I’d like to keep the free trade, I’d like to keep some of the free movement, but I don’t want to be told what laws we can have.
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Old Feb 14th 2016, 6:26 pm
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Anyone who says we can negotiate free trade deals does not understand trade at all. Free trade deals are not the same as a single market. You still have to put stuff through customs even if there is little or no duty. Believing that the EU will cut a deal to give the UK single market access without either paying the fees, or accepting free movement of people, is just plain deluded. It's like leaving a golf club whose dress code you don't like, and believing that after you leave, they'll let you play for free and wear whatever you want.

The sovereignty/democracy/transparency arguments don't carry much weight. Britain has an unelected head of state who has secret veto and lobby powers, an unelected upper house filled with millionaire political donors and former politicians, and a first past the post electoral system that gave the present government a working majority with only 36% of the votes, which which they can dismantle the NHS. Not surprisingly, our lectures to the rest of Europe are laughed at. Maybe we'd be taken more seriously if we got our own house in order first.

As a pro-European, there is actually something quite desirable about 'OUT' winning. Because there will then be 2 years of negotiations on how Britain comes out. And the result will inevitably be some kind of 'Norway' option, in which Britain has single market access (and pays the fees) while also accepting all of the obligations (remember, Cameron will be in power and negotiating the out deal, and there is no referendum on whatever he agrees). The only practical change will be that Britain won't have any vote at the EU, and so cannot veto perfectly sensible laws such as those affecting banks, etc.

Voting OUT will mean the EU operates far more efficiently without Britain *****ing it all up, it can pass meaningful laws on things like Google's tax deals, but Britain still has to honour all the rules that come out, such as reductions in roaming charges, EU flight compensation, etc. etc. Win-Win I reckon.

Last edited by captainflack; Feb 14th 2016 at 6:29 pm.
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Old Feb 14th 2016, 6:40 pm
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by iggle View Post
How can a country let’s say, Lithuania with a population of 3million, compete and have the same economical currency as Germany.
Compare London with much of the rest of the country in terms of average incomes, rent, etc. It's a valid argument, but also supports breaking up the UK.

Originally Posted by iggle View Post
Anyway, for Britain’s own sake, I’d like to keep the free trade, I’d like to keep some of the free movement, but I don’t want to be told what laws we can have.
Don't forget free Belgian beer and a blow job from any hot scandinavian girls I meet. I'd like that too.

I didn't vote Tory, neither did my constituency. And yet it gets laws from Westminster forced on it regardless. Time for the constituency to opt out of the UK? Why should a government 'we' didn't vote for, elected with just 36% of the votes, tell 'us' what the laws are going to be?

Let's be honest. The difference is that many people prefer ham-faced Eton bullingdon boys to any foreigner, however decent and normal the foreigner might be. I lived in Germany for a while, it was far better run, I'd happily let the Germans run the whole of Europe. They'd do a better job of it than the sh1tshower running the UK.
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Old Feb 14th 2016, 7:27 pm
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Very few Germans perform unnatural acts with pigs.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 3:38 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by captainflack View Post
I didn't vote Tory, neither did my constituency. And yet it gets laws from Westminster forced on it regardless. Time for the constituency to opt out of the UK? Why should a government 'we' didn't vote for, elected with just 36% of the votes, tell 'us' what the laws are going to be?
Some interesting points in your posts. Thanks.

But this bit - that's democracy at it's finest. The last election was always going to be unbelievably contentious when the figures came out.

Also, the 36% thing is one of those arguments that is hatefully difficult to judge without bias.

1. 36% voted for the current parliament, ie; more people got behind this bunch than any other specific bunch. Fact.
OR
2. 64% of people didn't vote for this mob at all. Fact. It's a travesty.

The voting system is a bit like the above - there will be valid arguments both ways for many different ways of working it. It's just something that when someone loses, they can use as part of the blame and when someone wins, they can say it was irrelevant.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 4:48 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
Some interesting points in your posts. Thanks.

But this bit - that's democracy at it's finest. The last election was always going to be unbelievably contentious when the figures came out.

Also, the 36% thing is one of those arguments that is hatefully difficult to judge without bias.

1. 36% voted for the current parliament, ie; more people got behind this bunch than any other specific bunch. Fact.
OR
2. 64% of people didn't vote for this mob at all. Fact. It's a travesty.

The voting system is a bit like the above - there will be valid arguments both ways for many different ways of working it. It's just something that when someone loses, they can use as part of the blame and when someone wins, they can say it was irrelevant.
The other way of spinning the numbers is concluding that 64% of people in the UK would rather live under a dictatorship.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 5:11 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

I love the doomers and gloomers like Capn' Jack. And you know you must roll your eyes when someone tries to use the concept of the Queen's theoretical powers as examples of dictatorship.

Reminds me of the Scottish referendum and the nutters online were threatening the pro-Indies people with economic retaliation from England should Scotland leave. Even though I was against Scottish independence, I knew it was daft. England wouldn't punish Scotland for leaving. We'd quickly adjust to the new norm, probably laugh and be a bit snide as the Scottish economy tanked but we wouldn't play games. We're adults, not schoolroom bullies picking on each other.

Same with the EU. The EU isn't going to punish Britain for leaving. Why would they want to? We can retaliate if we wanted to. We import more from the EU than the EU does from the UK so we're more valuable to the EU than the other way around. The EU tries to cut us off? It hurts them. And as for the UK, perhaps it's a great opportunity to rebuild our mercantile fleets and reconnect with the rest of the world. Actually, that's happening anyway as the value of non-EU trade has steadily increased while EU trade has decreased.

For a long time I thought membership in the EU was useful - to a certain extent. In the early days it was beneficial. But the EU was a different beast in the 1970s and 1980s. It's now steadily moving towards greater integration and that is something the UK never signed up for nor ever wanted. Our attitudes towards the EU (collectively as a nation) has always been one of reluctance and our expectations of the EU and the future of the EU sharply differs from the rest of the EU countries (at least the big players). I don't see a happy future for both the EU and the UK together as we both wanted different things out of the institution, its meaning and its future.

The EU's attitude towards the referendum tells you everything you need to know about the wholly different attitudes and faiths in the EU on the Continent than in the UK. It's much, much, much more important to the Germans and French than it is to the British. And it tells me that the UK shouldn't be in the EU.

Much of the issue does devolve down to the question of the nation-state. For me, the nation state I identify with is the United Kingdom, all bits of it. That's why I opposed Scottish independence. That's why I don't scream independence for my constituency because a different party is in power in Westminster. It's still my country. I don't identify with the EU and do not wish to see the UK become part of a new nation-state called the EU (for a variety of reasons). That's why I support Brexit. I think the UK has a great future outside the EU, just like, oh, say, Canada or Australia or Japan - all large, affluent and influential countries.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 7:15 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

from a purely selfish point of view I hope it will be a 'no' vote.

after a few more years here we plan to move to Europe (not UK) and that will be a lot more difficult if the UK is no longer in the EU.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 9:29 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Same with the EU. The EU isn't going to punish Britain for leaving. Why would they want to? We can retaliate if we wanted to. We import more from the EU than the EU does from the UK so we're more valuable to the EU than the other way around. The EU tries to cut us off? It hurts them. And as for the UK, perhaps it's a great opportunity to rebuild our mercantile fleets and reconnect with the rest of the world. Actually, that's happening anyway as the value of non-EU trade has steadily increased while EU trade has decreased.
I see this argument a lot, and for anyone with a basic understanding of economics it makes you cringe.

A trade is a mutually beneficial arrangement. Both sides benefit, the buyer and the seller. A trade occurs only if it is beneficial to both sides - the money is worth more to the seller than the goods, the goods are worth more to the buyer than the money. If it were not so, the trade wouldn't happen. It needs both sides to accept it. Both sides benefit, not just the seller. This is a fundamental of economics/trade and it shows the calibre of the arguments when this is trotted out so often.

UK businesses and consumers have a choice of suppliers from a huge single market, which benefits them, as well as the sellers. If you put up barriers to that trade, both sides lose - the buyer and the seller. British consumers will still buy German cars, but they'll pay more through customs and importation costs, etc. The price will go up. Companies that rely on things like German machine tools, will still buy them because there is no alternative, but they'll cost more, other companies might switch to domestic suppliers which are more expensive or lower quality, this will then affect their own pricing and quality, and so on. Of course the Germans will also have reduced sales and extra costs. Neither side benefits. Trade barriers are bad for everyone.

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
It's much, much, much more important to the Germans and French than it is to the British. And it tells me that the UK shouldn't be in the EU.
It really isn't. The UK is 11% of the EU's trade, the EU is 40% of the UK's trade. And most of what trade the UK does outside of the EU is conducted on the basis of trade agreements big nations like China and the US have with the EU. Britain would have to strike new deals with such countries if it left the EU.

And consider your comments regarding how the EU needs Britain more because they export more to us (which is a simplistic view, but let's run with this). Are you aware that the USA, our biggest trading partner outside the EU, is one of the few countries that Britain exports more to than we import? On the logic brexitters use, that means that in any trade deal, Britain needs the US more than it needs Britain, which means that the US holds all the aces in that negotiation, doesn't it? But amazingly, these people still believe that Britain is going to get a better deal from the yanks by leaving the EU. You cannot have it both ways.

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Much of the issue does devolve down to the question of the nation-state. For me, the nation state I identify with is the United Kingdom, all bits of it. That's why I opposed Scottish independence. That's why I don't scream independence for my constituency because a different party is in power in Westminster. It's still my country. I don't identify with the EU and do not wish to see the UK become part of a new nation-state called the EU (for a variety of reasons). That's why I support Brexit. I think the UK has a great future outside the EU, just like, oh, say, Canada or Australia or Japan - all large, affluent and influential countries.
This I think is really the fundamental issue. It's about nationalism. It's not really about good or bad laws, because most brexitters would struggle to think of any bad laws the EU has passed, but most could think of plenty of bad laws the UK parliament has passed. It's about a belief that somehow Britain is still great, that somehow we can still be a global player like we used to be 100 years ago. And for many, they'd rather accept bad laws passed by British people, than have good laws passed by foreigners.

I could take the brexitters arguments a bit more seriously if they were more realistic, for example by acknowledging that trade and the economy will take a hit, which is undoubtedly the case. The problem is their arguments seem to amount to 'free beer', that there are only benefits and no drawbacks. But when they don't fundamentally understand the difference between a single market and a free trade deal, then it's really hard to believe they really have any clue what they're talking about.

It's all largely irrelevant anyway, because in the event of an 'out' vote, the UK will have little choice but to negotiate to maintain single market membership, and freedom of movement of people is a requirement of that. The result will be Norway style membership, which will see Britain have the costs and have to continue to accept EU rules, but without any UK seats in the European parliament, any EU commissioner, or any place for the UK government round the table.

Last edited by captainflack; Feb 15th 2016 at 9:32 am.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 9:45 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by Inselaffen View Post
from a purely selfish point of view I hope it will be a 'no' vote.

after a few more years here we plan to move to Europe (not UK) and that will be a lot more difficult if the UK is no longer in the EU.
I left Dubai a few years ago and moved to Portugal. Being an EU citizen, it's really very simple to just move over and register, no painful visa renewals like in the UAE. Much prefer the life here too and feel much safer.

But even if the UK votes out, it will still end up with some deal that guarantees freedom of movement, so I think in practice it won't affect your chances of doing that. Depending on timescales, might be worth stocking up on EUR if you have GBP holdings, as the GBP is getting caned against the EUR for past 2-3 months, so the markets seem to have decided who stands to lose most over brexit.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 10:03 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

... and this is why it is difficult. The costs are clear, the benefits are hard to quantify.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 10:23 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
... and this is why it is difficult. The costs are clear, the benefits are hard to quantify.
It's a bit like the Scottish independence vote. Nobody actually knows the answers or the outcomes. It's just chest puffing and A-level economic theories being lauded.
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Old Feb 15th 2016, 10:30 am
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Default Re: The Brexit; Are you in or out?

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
It's a bit like the Scottish independence vote. Nobody actually knows the answers or the outcomes. It's just chest puffing and A-level economic theories being lauded.
From what I've read it's below A-level.

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