British Expats

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)
-   The Rovers Return (https://britishexpats.com/forum/rovers-return-111/)
-   -   Upcoming Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/rovers-return-111/upcoming-referendum-876428/)

curleytops Apr 24th 2016 3:42 pm

Upcoming Referendum
 
June 23 is drawing closer and with it the big question.

mikelincs Apr 24th 2016 3:45 pm

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by curleytops (Post 11930858)
June 23 is drawing closer and with it the big question.

Yes, what to have for dinner..:p

Perth Apr 24th 2016 8:49 pm

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 
It's such a difficult decision to make as an expat who is not there on the ground. Technically, I am an In supporter, but really have no way of knowing whether I would feel differently if I lived there instead of the USA. In any case, I can't vote since I have been away for over 15 years. Do you think Obama's visit helped or hurt Cameron? We are hearing conflicting reports here.

robin1234 Apr 25th 2016 12:37 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 
I'm in the U.S. just now, hopefully I'll be back in Norfolk in time for the referendum. I'm all registered and up to date, because I successfully voted a couple of months ago for a council vacancy that had arisen.

For me, prudence strongly points towards staying in - the known vs. the unknown. All that theatre about Cameron renegotiating a better deal was a load of bs though.

verystormy Apr 25th 2016 6:44 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 
Very much voting out because I have yet to see a valid reason for staying in but many for getting out

mikelincs Apr 25th 2016 9:21 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by verystormy (Post 11931309)
Very much voting out because I have yet to see a valid reason for staying in but many for getting out

I see many reasons for staying in, and very, very few for leaving. Migration will not stop because the 'leave' people are talking about joining the EEA, which allows free movement, yes we pay a lot of money to the EU, but then again we get most of it back in the form of regional grants, farming subsidies, and that little left does ensure that we have a single market without restrictions to other EU countries.

Giantaxe Apr 26th 2016 1:55 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mikelincs (Post 11931379)
I see many reasons for staying in, and very, very few for leaving. Migration will not stop because the 'leave' people are talking about joining the EEA, which allows free movement, yes we pay a lot of money to the EU, but then again we get most of it back in the form of regional grants, farming subsidies, and that little left does ensure that we have a single market without restrictions to other EU countries.

Those who are voting no to stop migration from the EU are going to be sorely disappointed imo. Either Britain is going to have to join the EEA, or it's going to struggle to negotiate free trade agreements essentially from scratch. Switzerland, for example, which is in neither the EU nor the EEA, still had to allow the free movement of EU/EEA citizens in exchange for market access.

verystormy Apr 26th 2016 7:38 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mikelincs (Post 11931379)
I see many reasons for staying in, and very, very few for leaving. Migration will not stop because the 'leave' people are talking about joining the EEA, which allows free movement, yes we pay a lot of money to the EU, but then again we get most of it back in the form of regional grants, farming subsidies, and that little left does ensure that we have a single market without restrictions to other EU countries.

First, they have now said - thankfully - that we will not join the EEA.

Second, even after rebate and grants, we still pay between 9 and 11 billion a year in fee.

The treasuries own report also says that the worst 100 EU regulations costs business in the UK 100 billion per year.

If we stay, we are certain to be included in TTIP - kiss goodbye to the NHS.

verystormy Apr 26th 2016 7:45 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 11932046)
Those who are voting no to stop migration from the EU are going to be sorely disappointed imo. Either Britain is going to have to join the EEA, or it's going to struggle to negotiate free trade agreements essentially from scratch. Switzerland, for example, which is in neither the EU nor the EEA, still had to allow the free movement of EU/EEA citizens in exchange for market access.

No we wont and the reason is simple. Most of the EU economies are basket cases. The UK runs a large trade deficit to the EU. Nobody knows how large as it is impossible to quantify the Rotterdam effect. But, when that is taken into account, it is likely that the EU is nowhere near the largest trading partner.

As a result, it is vital for the EU far more than it is for the UK to strike a deal. Not doing so would impact the UK very slightly - the biggest single item we export is nuclear equipment which can not be sourced from anywhere else in the short or even medium term. But, it would be economic disaster for the EU.

The worst case scenario for UK / EU trade would be to rely on WTO. Not the end of the world as the UK already relies on WTO for trade with a lot of other partners.

Any trade we did lose, would also mean that UK companies would be more competitive within the domestic market and so likely to be rebalanced

BritInParis Apr 26th 2016 8:24 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 
The UK is already a member of the EEA and the referendum question only asks about EU membership.

Perth Apr 26th 2016 11:24 am

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by verystormy (Post 11932196)
If we stay, we are certain to be included in TTIP - kiss goodbye to the NHS.

With regards to this, I would like to know what those who work for the NHS think and what side they support. The NHS is arguably the most essential organisation in the UK, and I, for one, would like to know which scenario will result it is being trashed further :sneaky:

Editha Apr 26th 2016 3:12 pm

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 
I'm voting in.

Giantaxe Apr 26th 2016 5:28 pm

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by verystormy (Post 11932201)
No we wont and the reason is simple. Most of the EU economies are basket cases. The UK runs a large trade deficit to the EU. Nobody knows how large as it is impossible to quantify the Rotterdam effect. But, when that is taken into account, it is likely that the EU is nowhere near the largest trading partner.

The Rotterdam effect affects imports as well as exports and cannot explain away the large discrepancy in percentage of exports in each direction. According to The Economist's numbers (which I trust more than most), 51.4% of UK exports go to the EU, just 6.6% of the EU's exports go to the UK. The fact that the UK has a trade deficit to the EU is essentially moot when judging the relative importance of each other for trade. Additionally, it is individual countries within the EU that would have to vote in favour of any new trade agreement with a post-Brexit UK. Only one country - Ireland, which presumably would continue to have "special arrangements" with the UK anyway - sends more than 10% of its exports to the UK.


Originally Posted by verystormy (Post 11932201)
As a result, it is vital for the EU far more than it is for the UK to strike a deal.

I disagree given the fact that it is individual EU countries that would have to vote to approve any trade deal with the UK.

curleytops Apr 26th 2016 7:34 pm

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 
I'm out.

robin1234 Apr 26th 2016 9:47 pm

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Originally Posted by curleytops (Post 11932884)
I'm out.

Then I'll make sure I'm around in late June, to cancel out your vote! :p


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