Upcoming Referendum
 

June 23 is drawing closer and with it the big question.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Yes, what to have for dinner..:p

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

It's such a difficult decision to make as an expat who is not there on the ground. Technically, I am an In supporter, but really have no way of knowing whether I would feel differently if I lived there instead of the USA. In any case, I can't vote since I have been away for over 15 years. Do you think Obama's visit helped or hurt Cameron? We are hearing conflicting reports here.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

I'm in the U.S. just now, hopefully I'll be back in Norfolk in time for the referendum. I'm all registered and up to date, because I successfully voted a couple of months ago for a council vacancy that had arisen.

For me, prudence strongly points towards staying in - the known vs. the unknown. All that theatre about Cameron renegotiating a better deal was a load of bs though.

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Very much voting out because I have yet to see a valid reason for staying in but many for getting out

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I see many reasons for staying in, and very, very few for leaving. Migration will not stop because the 'leave' people are talking about joining the EEA, which allows free movement, yes we pay a lot of money to the EU, but then again we get most of it back in the form of regional grants, farming subsidies, and that little left does ensure that we have a single market without restrictions to other EU countries.

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Those who are voting no to stop migration from the EU are going to be sorely disappointed imo. Either Britain is going to have to join the EEA, or it's going to struggle to negotiate free trade agreements essentially from scratch. Switzerland, for example, which is in neither the EU nor the EEA, still had to allow the free movement of EU/EEA citizens in exchange for market access.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

First, they have now said - thankfully - that we will not join the EEA.

Second, even after rebate and grants, we still pay between 9 and 11 billion a year in fee.

The treasuries own report also says that the worst 100 EU regulations costs business in the UK 100 billion per year.

If we stay, we are certain to be included in TTIP - kiss goodbye to the NHS.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

No we wont and the reason is simple. Most of the EU economies are basket cases. The UK runs a large trade deficit to the EU. Nobody knows how large as it is impossible to quantify the Rotterdam effect. But, when that is taken into account, it is likely that the EU is nowhere near the largest trading partner.

As a result, it is vital for the EU far more than it is for the UK to strike a deal. Not doing so would impact the UK very slightly - the biggest single item we export is nuclear equipment which can not be sourced from anywhere else in the short or even medium term. But, it would be economic disaster for the EU.

The worst case scenario for UK / EU trade would be to rely on WTO. Not the end of the world as the UK already relies on WTO for trade with a lot of other partners.

Any trade we did lose, would also mean that UK companies would be more competitive within the domestic market and so likely to be rebalanced

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

The UK is already a member of the EEA and the referendum question only asks about EU membership.

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With regards to this, I would like to know what those who work for the NHS think and what side they support. The NHS is arguably the most essential organisation in the UK, and I, for one, would like to know which scenario will result it is being trashed further :sneaky:

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

I'm voting in.

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The Rotterdam effect affects imports as well as exports and cannot explain away the large discrepancy in percentage of exports in each direction. According to The Economist's numbers (which I trust more than most), 51.4% of UK exports go to the EU, just 6.6% of the EU's exports go to the UK. The fact that the UK has a trade deficit to the EU is essentially moot when judging the relative importance of each other for trade. Additionally, it is individual countries within the EU that would have to vote in favour of any new trade agreement with a post-Brexit UK. Only one country - Ireland, which presumably would continue to have "special arrangements" with the UK anyway - sends more than 10% of its exports to the UK.

I disagree given the fact that it is individual EU countries that would have to vote to approve any trade deal with the UK.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

I'm out.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Then I'll make sure I'm around in late June, to cancel out your vote! :p

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Why do a people who once thought they should rule the world, now think they would be better in isolation?

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

A more accurate, somewhat ironic, question would be why do a people who once ruled much of the world now don't like it when someone tries to do the same to them?

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I've heard it put that way. It's a very good question.

I guess I thought the intent of the EU was cooperation. Not about 'ruling'.

That's why my question is posed....differently. And I don't post it in a baiting way, either.

One of the things I've observed each time I have been in any part of the United Kingdom are the war memorials. Not the tiniest village doesn't have one. Usually in the heart of commerce, where all can see.

I've asked my husband if since the memorials are so plentiful, do the people just not see them anymore?

It's a serious, sad question. :(

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Wait till Trump gets the nod for US presidency, then we know which way the UK referendum will go... just saying

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Sorry, we are not. We were but that was superseded by EU membership.

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It is not about being isolated. It is about the fact we joined a club that was one thing, but which has evolved into something very different. The thing it has evolved into is, in my opinion, lo longer in the UK interest to remain in.

I also think that if a number of other countries were given the same referendum there would be others voting to leave

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

We joined the European Community in 1974 and signed the Maastricht Treaty on 7 February 1992 which came into force on 1 November 1993.

The EEA Agreement wasn't signed until 2 May 1992 and it came into force on 1 January 1994.

I suspect you're thinking of EFTA which the UK was a member of from 1960 until 1973 when we joined the EC.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

I'm torn. Heart says OUT for sure.

Looking at bank my account and the exchange rate, head says IN. :lol:

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Hubby will counter you :P

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership - NHS Confederation

The NHS view appears to be that negotiations so far, to protect the NHS are going smoothly.

Personally, I have some qualms about TTIP, but I don't see any reason to regard it as a threat to the NHS. That is just scaremongering.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

Really? How so? I don't see the connection.

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What you mean by "given"? Any of the 28 members of the EU are at liberty to conduct a national referendum any time they choose.

27 choose not be be so daft.

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Whose idea was this anyway? If it was Cameron's how was this a good idea since he is in the remain camp? I have to say I am baffled by the whole thing :confused:

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Cameron was forced into promising a referendum in order to avoid a revolt from the most rabidly outdated wing of his own party.

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This was one of my points on another, rather more contentious thread. There is much heated talk about "loss of sovereignty" but this entirely neglects the point of cooperation and community. Tbh, I don't so much see the EU as a matter of loss of sovereignty but of a sovereign nation willingly participating in a collaborative effort in order to gain community benefits that are not possible as a single nation. It is the international version of all UK citizens paying tax so that our country can afford common goods (NHS, paved roads, schools, etc. etc.) that would it not be possible to organize or have as individuals.

The advantages, or otherwise, of EU membership can certainly be debated but the whole loss of sovereignty thing is a bit of an emotive red herring.

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Actually it's even worse than that. Leaving the EU while remaining in the EEA would result in the UK being forced to follow EU rules having abrogated any input in their formulation. That is real lack of sovereignty.

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I'm struggling to identify:

1. The concrete, definable, measurable downsides of staying in
2. What precisely would be better in concrete, definable, measurable terms if we leave

These are real questions and clear answers are not being provided much by anyone that I can see. It's almost all posturing and tendentious arguments.

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Me too.

For me the answers are 1. None and 2. Nothing.

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I'm with you. This will be my first vote in the UK (I'm not yet a UK permanent resident/citizen, but was accepted onto the Electoral Register due to being a Commonwealth citizen). I'd like to make an informed choice, one devoid of personalities and 'the sky is falling' scenarios.

I've done a lot of reading, but can't find a clear pathway to a decisive answer. Like everyone else, I just want what's best for the UK overall. Ps Scouse is voting out.

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I don't either. Especially since the referendum is being held a few weeks before the Republican Convention, and nearly five months before the US general election.

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Agreed. It's simply the reverse of the situation here where "socialized medicine' is the bogeyman that prevents reasonable debate about healthcare. I've read a few articles about TTIP and the NHS and I just don't see a rational concern. Great "scare tactic" though.

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Sorry, yes, was thinking of EFTA. Though it makes little difference as it is clear from the out camp that it will be to fully leave - hence all the debate about trade.

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

First, those figures are completely at odds with the ONS and EU reported figures, which sorry, but I have yet to read anything The Economist that doesn't read like a fairy story.

Yes, unless we operate to WTO, we would need a trade deal. If we operate to WTO we see UK goods hit with 4%. However, EU goods in would also be hit - note the biggest single EU country deficit the UK has to an EU country is Germany. Guess which country tends to get its way and is the most self protecting in the EU......

Re: Upcoming Referendum
 

The Economist's numbers came from the IMF, as noted in the link I provided. Link to back up your claims?

7% of Germany's exports go to the UK. Again, a trade deficit isn't the important critieria when judging the relative importance of trade. Germany may have a lot of clout in the EU, but the reality is that all members would have to approve a trade deal with the UK and many of them have no reason to be favourable to the UK.

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Personally, I find the developments in Europe very worrying. There are so many echoes of the nineteen-thirties: economic malaise, a former imperial power flexing its muscles, the rise of far-right parties, disillusionment with liberal democracy, and the aggravation of ethnic tensions and nationalism.

The EU has struggled to contain all these pressures, but it has done a hell of a lot better than nations did individually in the twenties and thirties, and in that respect has justified the ideals of its founders.

I don't think this is the time for Great Britain to be turning its back on Europe, and to do so would be a betrayal of our history and heritage. I agree absolutely with Churchill's grandson Nicholas Soames that it would be a betrayal of what his grandfather achieved.

The financial argument is boring and irrelevant and already lost by the Brexiters. Everybody with expertise has predicted financial loss on leaving the EU, from the OECD and the IMF, to the Bank of England. What is the status of the Brexiters arguments: the back-of-the envelope calculations by a UKIP-supporting retired accountant from Bexhill-on-Sea?