Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update 1-7 August:

By region:

Total allocated to region 61,149

NCR 14,244
4A 10,597
CL 6,866
CV 6,443
WV 4,440
NM 3,680
IL 3,443
Dav 2,300
Cag 2,050
SOCCS 1,825
EV 1.183
CAR 1,069
Bic 1,048
CARAGA 645
MIM 627
Zamb 463
BARM 226


Top 6 76% of all cases.

In the NCR:

QC 2,541
Mla 1,722
Mak 1,193
Pnque 1,011
Psg 975
Taguig 935

By province:

Cav 4,329
Lag 3,025
Bul 2,920
Pam 1,424
Riz 1,222
Batgs 1,125
Bata 945

By city

Bac 350
Bag 291
CDO 1,059
Cebu 1,869
Davao 1,181
Gen San 516
Ilo2 551
Lapu2 771

Area:

Aklan 1,362
Ilo2 1,153

Boh 896

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A lower case count yesterday at 9,671 as testing dropped to 51.3k and the DOH withheld 742 results for some reason. Positivity up to 20.3%. Highest since since April 10. Tests coming along 44.6k
Recoveries 8.1k
Deaths 287, highest since April 19
RDs 149

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...39883f9222.jpg
Deaths flattening.

Active 77,516 highest since April 24

Severe 1,318, down 51 and Critical 775, up 14

NCR ICU 63%, up 4%. National 64%, up 2%

Regional data:

NCR 2,325
4A 1,562
CV 1,412
CL 1,025
NM 635
WV 574
Davao 544
Cag 411

200s 1 region
100s 5

Top 6 78%, up

NCR was down about 500 but still had 24% of cases.
CV added nearly 400 more.
4A added more than 300. CL more than 200.
CARAGA added around 100 more.

On Cebu City:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3

The last one was bad enough:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...95cf472551.jpg
Cebu City

Quarantines:

Good if they move to more random checks as the traffic is a lot greater than last time.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

Vaccinations:

Ambitious given at present only just over 10.7M adults fully vaccinated!

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=4

Will now report weekly on NCR cities, provinces and other cities/areas every Sunday.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

On the face of it encouraging data from the DOH. Daily news reports will give that impression. Seven hundred less cases announced than the day before. No one in the media notices or wants to point out that 1,770 positive results were not announced. That makes nearly 2,500 in the last two days plus some from previous days.
Positivity from the 50.1k tests was up again to 21.3%. Only 32.8k results on the way from the weekend.

Recoveries 7.9k

Deaths only 6, 4 RDs.

Active cases up to 78,480

Severe 1,334, up 16 and Critical 785, up 10

NCR ICU 67%, up 4% National 65%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 2,406
4A 1,882
CL 1,113
CV 767
NM 619
WV 575
IL 477

Top 6: a high 82.7%

But so many positive results held back for now. They may be mostly from certain regions.

Main feature: 4A had more than 300 than the day before.

NCR vaccinations:

The President's spox saying that he was not to blame for crowds at vaccination centres last week. The timing was wrong. But his words got into the social media and after 3 days produced some panic as the start of ECQ neared.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/09/...tion-mess-spox

No walk in vaccinations allowed during ECQ. Result will be a much lower take up than the government hopes.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/09/...ila-during-ecq

OCTA update on NCR:

R number estimated at 1.8

Positivity up from 10% to 14% in the last week.

Delta variant 31% presence in samples (not told number and size....they will be small).

No outdoor exercise allowed outside in NCR during ECQ! I can't see that being followed in some of the upscale subdivisions.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

Re: NCR llockdown
 

No outdoor exercise! Well outdoors is the safest place to be.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

This was largely true for the original variant but the delta variant is some much more transmissible that you are no longer safe outdoors either.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

[QUOTE=Gazza-d;13038880]This was largely true for the original variant but the delta variant is some much more transmissible that you are no longer safe outdoors either.[/QUOTE

With an increased viral load yes, the chances of transmission everywhere are increased. But for people running, biking, walking and just stretching outside heir home for exercise that increase is from one extremely low risk up to a slightly higher but still very low risk. One to be weighed against the benefits of such exercise.

It's clear from the Sunstar report that the risk of transmission was not the reason. As B pointed out the risk is greater at home for these exercisers. The Mayors say they just wanted to get more people off the streets .A dramatic or perhaps even panic move to try to give the idea that after enduring two previous ECQs with no end of the pandemic here in sight ,this one is again necessary and the most serious

https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1...wed-during-ECQ

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Staying indoors has many negative side effects. Apart from the inability to exercise the lack of exposure to sunlight inhibits access to the all important Vitamin D.
On the positive side the vaccination process is going as well as expected. A nephew of my wife and a recent graduate has been vaccinated with the one shot JJ vaccine in Davao Occidental.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 1k less cases announced, 13 labs late to submit then a backlog of 1,318 included. There is about 1k more backlog to come. On the other hand tests were 17k lower. Difficult to assess the net effect of all these factors. Positivity was up a little again to 21.9%. Tests on the way up a little to 35k.

Recoveries 8k

Deaths 92 with 29 RDs

Active 79,016 highest since April 24

Severe 1,343, up 9 and Critical 790, up 5
After large swings now small changes.

NCR ICU 67%, the same. Nationally 68%, up 3%

Regional data (out early am today):

NCR 2,168
4A 1,515
CL 1,363
CV 843
WV 545
NM 459
IL 434

200s 2 regions
100s 3

Top 6: a high 80.5%

4A gained over 300 and CL over 200.
NM over 150 more.

A good report from ABS-CBN on the national vaccination situation:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/10/...ed-vs-covid-19

NCR at about 40% but noticeable that the great majority of regions have a percentage much less than half that fully vaccinated.

Delta variant:

In fifth place in the latest Genome center report, but increasing fast and from experience elsewhere will become dominant in a few weeks everywhere here. Well before confirmatory news of that from the genome center.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-genome-center

Previously more identified in parts of Mindanao and the Visayas, now Bataan:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ound-in-bataan


You will probably have to wait longer for the barber shop and salon to reopen in the NCR!

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ses-doh/story/

I would say "probability". There was never going to be the data available by next week to support a downgrade in the NCR quarantine. The DOH data here always slow to come out and not reliable to give a true picture. Prepare for a longer ECQ in the NCR:

Also I think there's a good chance of other areas, especially around the NCR, presently MECQ, going to ECQ.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A daily total about 3.5k more than August 10's making the headlines with just over 12,000 new cases announced.. Three labs late. But most significantly including an extraordinary and unpublicised backlog of 3,594 cases. I had anticipated more backlog to come but thought it would be much less than that. Checking back over the last 10 days shows there is still more to come out.
The positivity of this mix of recent cases and those from one or two weeks ago was 21.9%.

All cases reported to the DOH go through a validation process with LGUs and maybe that took longer with these or some labs are not able to process results as quickly as usual. No explanation given by the DOH but from yesterday's regional data it looks like it's mostly a lab issue in the NCR and 4A areas.

On top of these delays we must always remember that infections started a week or more before testing positive.

What it looks like is that there was a big rise in infections in the last week of July in the NCR and 4A regions which took a long time to test and perhaps also validate and are only now being reported.

One good thing is that the DOH give a daily chart where they show infections by their estimated starting date:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fcf55ee810.jpg
NCR

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0ace2b64d0.jpg
Region 4A

The trend line follows the daily numbers announced by the DOH. The green bars cases by estimated onset of infection. Notice that recently the green bars are starting to rise above the trend line. Something more clearly seen in the March/April surge.
So looking only at the daily DOH figures given to the public can give an out of date picture when cases start to increase quickly, as it looks like they are doing now. Let's hope the experts in the DOH and outside are looking at the data correctly. But the mainstream media either have no idea about this or are reluctant to point it out, so the public are being misinformed.

Latest testing at 38.5k and tests to come up to 54.1k.

Recoveries 9.6k

Deaths 154, 112 of them RDs.

Active cases now 81,399

Severe 1,302, down 41 and Critical 814, up 24
Note: Critical now above 800.

NCR ICU 69%, up 2% and nationally 68%, unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 3,126
4A 2,569
CL 1,459
CV 911
NM 838
WV 762
IL 499
SOCCSK 444

I region 300s
2 200s
3 100s

No point in calculating percentages of total cases for yesterday as data distorted by unusual increases in NCR and 4A reports...each went up by around 1k.
Elsewhere NM added nearly 400 more. SOCCSK nearly 300 more.
WV added over 200 more. Bicol added over 170 more.
Cagayan 135 more..

Change to DOH alert level 4 areas:
(alert level 4 ignores infection levels and is only indicating where covid health facilities are in a critical situation):

Changes:

NCR: Valenzuala, Marikina and Navotas Cities in
IL Dagupan City in
Cagayan Nueva Vizcaya out
4A: Rizal in
CV: Mandaue City out, Siquijor in
WV: Aklan in
EV: Tacloban out, Ormoc in
Bicol: Naga City in
Davao: Davao City out
SOCCSK: S Cotabato in

Full list:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9720cfb6d5.jpg
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b975d042b3.jpg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...55fafb7fda.jpg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...15389ebb6e.jpg

The large city of Davao now out, but overall it looks like these places account for much more than the about one third of the Philippine population covered by this highest alert level a week ago.
The list of Alert level 3 areas, where rising infection levels are seen, is not published by the DOH.

Vaccinations in the NCR:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/11/...-shy-of-target

The always over ambitious 250K a day not being reached.
Mainly due to supply issues, but no walk in allowed during ECQ, manpower and vaccine hesitancy also mentioned as reasons.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Another day over 12k announced, 2 labs late and 390 cases held over, to be added to those still being kept back by the DOH. There were 12,439 positives from 57k individuals tested, so a high 22.5% positive rate.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7c16275753.jpg
Positivity rising steeply but testing by much less.

Recoveries 6.1k

Deaths 165, 85 RDs

Active cases rise by over 6k to 87,633

Severe 1,315, up 13 and Critical 789, down 25

NCR ICU 68%, down 1%, nationally 69%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 3,642
4A 2,193
CL 1,756
CV 1,005
WV 703
NM 646

400s,300s,200s 1 region each
100s 5 regions

Top 6: 68.9%

NCR added over 500 and leading with 29.2%.
CL added about 300.
IL added 131, CV had nearly 100 more.

Weekly changes in cases for NCR cities, provinces and other cities will be reported weekly on Sunday.

Latest OCTA group report:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2f66cdec28.jpg

Cebu City, Imus and Tuguergarao in Cagayan getting reds for both ADAR (new cases per 100k pop) and ICU occupancy.
Many other cities on red, brown and amber for ADAR.



https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...603e397042.jpg

Delta well exceeding Alpha and Beta in the latest samples.


Jeepney drivers got only a little of the government assistance available when not being able to operate:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...istance/story/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 700 more cases announced. Four labs late and again hundreds of cases not announced, yesterday another 359.
Positivity up again to 23.6% from 57.4k tests. A lower 48.7k coming. Not enough.

Recoveries 4.3k

Deaths 299, 175 of them RDs.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cb52f453d6.jpg
Deaths by known or estimated date of occurrence.

Deaths outside primary hospitals are in the majority. This can be guessed at by looking at the changes in Critical cases. eg yesterday down only 18, the previous day down only 25. A typical daily change. The large daily numbers of RDs are probably cases where the local authorities have little knowledge of condition, only that they once tested positive. These people are put down initially as recovered, then later the LGU are informed they have died.
It can be worse. In this news item 5 in Cagayan died at home and were later found to have covid:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-19-fatalities

Internationally:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1fdf863d72.jpg
Phils at 8th place yesterday for world new deaths. But other Asian countries , some with smaller populations, also doing badly.


Severe 1,350, +45 and Critical 771, -18

NCR ICU 60%, -8%. National 66%, -3%
Big drop in NCR figure?

Regional data:

NCR 3,603
4A 2,727
CL 1,763
CV 1,038
WV 741
NM 611
IL 581
Davao 502

1 400s
3 200s
2 100s

Top 6: 79.6%, up

NCR down a little and at 27.3% of all cases.
4A was up over 500. Davao up by less than 200.

DOH Alert level 4 areas:

From this it now seems there are 53 (up from 41) areas:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...level-4/story/

Additional areas in Central Luzon, Bicol, the Visayas and Mindanao.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...k?ocid=BingHPC

The PNP not doing anything much to protect their small, over crowded police stations after 18 months of covid? Or was the rate of infection seen as acceptable until recently? Then infection rates increased by the delta variant?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

An increase of more than 1k yesterday, 4 labs late to report. The backlog included in the 14,249 cases was 1,131. The highest ever cases was 15,310 on April 2 this year. This was the second highest. Positivity just under 25% from 53.7k tests .Coming along 58.1k.

Recoveries 11.7k

Deaths 233, 142 RDs.

Active cases 98,847, highest since April 23.

Severe 1,384, +34, Critical 791, up 20

NCR ICU 71%, up 11% (!), nationally 70%, up 4%

Regional data:

NCR 3,958
4A 2,523
CL 1,893
CV 1,268
WV 862
IL 697
Davao 630
NM 623

300s 1 region
200s 3
100s 4

Top 6: 78.6%, down

The NCR added over 350 more to have 27.8% of all cases.
CV added over 200 more.
CL, WV and Davao all added over 100 more.
ZP added 100 more cases.

Weekly update coming later today.

The major public hospital in Manila temporarily not admitting non-Covid patients!
Also Pasay GH no ER admittance for now.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

The DOH has a lot of investigations coming:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/coa-s...on-2020-budget

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Update on weekly data Aug 7 -14 over the week before:

Regional data: % increase
National increase: 4.8%

NM 8.9
IL 7.2
CV 6.7
CL 6.4
4A 5.1
WV 4.6
Dav 4.1


NCR cities % increase (NCR 3.6%)

Nav 7.3
LP 7.2
Munt 6.1
Mal 4.8
Val 4.5
Mak 4.4
Pnq 3.9

Provincial around NCR:

Bata 7.8
Btngs 3.5
Bul 7.5
Cav 7.2
Lag 6.4
Pam 7.4
Pang 5.5
Riz 3.7

Most provinces around the NCR with greater increases than the NCR.

Other cities and areas:% increase

CDO 8.5
Cebu 6.1
Davao 3.9
GenSan 5.4
Ilo2 C 7.5
Lapu2 9.8

Aklan 14.7
Ilo2 6.2

Boh 3.6

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 14,749 new cases, 3 labs late to report and a backlog of 683 included. Positivity 23,5% out of 59.9k tested. In preparation 56,2k tests.

Recoveries 10.7k

Deaths 270, 141 RDs.
Case fatality rate: 1.74%

Active 102,748

Primary hospitals; Severe 1,336, down 48 and Critical 822, up 31
Total 2,158

NCR ICU 71%, national 70% both unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 3,640
4A 3,000
CL 2.034
CV 983
IL 980
NM 904
WV 741

600s,400,300,200 1 region
100s 5

Top 6: 78.2%, down a little.

NCR with less cases at 24.7% of all cases.
4A increased by nearly 500.
NM and IL by more than 250.
CAG by less than 250.
CL by more than 100.
ZP by almost 70.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Update of the weekly update!

In the weekly update yesterday I didn't give what I said I would and look at the latest weekly increase compared to the previous week's total. Instead I mistakenly related figures to the total at the end of the previous of the previous week. Not so useful.

So here are the % changes for the week August 8-14 compared to the previous week August 1-7:

Regions:

NCR +51
CL +50
4A +38
ZP +31
CARAGA +19
NM +18
CAG +!7
CV +10
Davao +10
CAR +1
WV +0.4

IL -1
MIM -16
BARMM -19
Bic -22
EV -33
SOCCSK -33

NCR looks almost certain to have at least one week more of ECQ as the decision for that must be made in only a few day's time.

NCR cities:

Those cities over the NCR average only:

Nav 171
LP 129
Cal 74
Munt 68
Pateros 65
QC 64
Mla 63

Lowest increase Pnq 20
Mand the only city to fall. By 30%

Provinces:

Bataan 29
Btgs 30
Bul 48
Cav 41
La U 79
Lag 47
Pam 51
Pang 60
Qu -8
Riz 84

From this more provinces likely to go to ECQ next week. Laguna is already ECQ.

Cities /Areas:

Bac -44
Baguio -9
CDO 19
Cebu 5
Davao 7
GenSan 12
ILo2 93
Lapu2 25

Ak 2
Ilo2 1

Boh -53


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1c468b56bc.jpg
Dr John gives the Philippines some mentions at the beginning pf his latest video. Testing is too low he says. Yes, despite rising positivity it seems not to be able to go above 60k a day.