Re: NCR llockdown
 

Looking at those figures far more of the population of Indonesia survive into old age than the Philippines. 11% over 55 in the Philippines, 18% in Indonesia.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday more than a 2k increase to make a record 22,415 new cases. Eight labs too late to submit. Included a backlog of 1,315. Highest yet positivity of 28.8% from 73.3k tests. This will fall to around 48k tomorrow, due to the weekend effect.

Recoveries again at 20.1k

Deaths 103, 7RDs.

Active 159,633 highest since April 13

Severe 2,335, up 31 and Critical 958, down 144
Large movement for Critical.

NCR ICU 73%, down 2%. National 76%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 6,335
4A 4,970
CL 2,854
Cag 1,121
Dav 1,053
WV 826
NM 815
CV 660
Caraga 608
IL 562

3 400s
3 300s
1 100s

NCR adding over 1,2k at 28.3% of all cases.
4A had over 500 more, CL about 650 more.
These three regions with 63.2% of cases, up nearly 5%.

Cagayan and Davao both added about 250 more.
EV over 200 more.
Small MIMAROPA added over 200 cases to total 371.

Top 6 regions: 76.6% of all cases, up 1%.

Quarantine changes until end of the month:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/06/...q-on-sept-8-30

NCR to GCQ, albeit with "heightened restrictions'. Anyway some businesses will reopen. Yet cases there still increasing:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ea5a301655.jpg
NCR

Should really stay in MECQ but no more ayuda. The government adding in "pilot granular lockdowns". Actually several cities already do them so let's see how many new ones are started.

All 4A provinces except Batangas and Quezon stay in MECQ. The recent case growth of 4A is similar to the NCR's...so many barber shops closed for another 3 weeks, indoor dining banned. No granular lockdown plans there to justify relaxing restrictions!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, but that's not a bonus for covid hospitilization and death. Which the comparison was about.

Whatever past factors caused the greater older proportion in Indonesia, maybe Philippines emigration had something to do with it? the demographers seem to have life expectancy at birth now similar at around 71 yrs for both countries, from my quick search on Bing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 4k fewer cases, 8 labs late to submit. Also a a 1,944 backlog of positives included. Positivity level maintained at 28.1% from 57.2k tests .A lower number, 52.7k tests in process.

Recoveries 19k

Deaths 161 with 105 RDs.

Active 158,637

Severe 2,221, down 14 and Critical 1,111, up 53

NCR ICU 75%, up 2% National 76%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 4,794
4A 4,030
CL 1,895
IL 1,258
WV 836
Dav 831
CV 751
Cag 718
CAR 643

500s 1
300s 1
200s 3
100s 3

NCR cases fell by about 1.5k, 26.6% of all cases.
4A had about 900 less, CL 1k less.
Most regions had less cases.
The major exception was Ilocos with nearly 700 more.
CV reported about 100 more and the CAR about 150 more.

Top 3 regions 59.5%, down
Top 6: 71.6%, down

Quarantine levels;

It's Ok to backtrack if circumstances change for the worse but not good to do so when nothing has changed.
The "granular lockdown" policy aimed at relaxing restrictions generally down to GCQ+ was never properly formulated.
The president's spokesman said its 4 pages of guidance wasn't yet ready, more discussions were needed. Seems it was forced through to justify a quarantine downgrade and not be under pressure to pay more ayuda.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/07/...-until-sept-15

Confidence in the ever forgiving public here that the government knows what it is doing will be dented. Many workers have another week with no job. No government help for that.

Actually this item tells you that this new policy is actually a mix of granular lockdowns plus new business sector restrictions by area. The granular idea was never going to do much, difficult to get the statistics in time, expensive and complicated to operate. But the sectoral restrictions by NCR city also require timely data. They are also likely to be complicated if they are to vary by area. Are people going to be stopped going to another city? We await details on these business opening rules in a week's time..

https://www.rappler.com/nation/video...9-rising-cases

Where we are in Cavite, also under MECQ, they've sensibly allowed one nearby salon which is very open to the outside, to open. Also some dine-in, at the cheaper end, where the eating places are open to the outside.

Also another backtrack on Ilocos Norte. Now MECQ not GCQ+:

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...-Sept.-7-.html

CNN Phil report the reason as "the appeal of the government". But they have the active case number wrong, it's only 1,306 with the DOH.

Well, cases in the Ilocos region have been rising, lately. It is often in the top 6 regions for daily cases. But looking at the two neighbouring provinces it seems a curious decision:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a03e6a1158.jpg
Ilocos Norte, signs of case decline

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a1736825ff.jpg
Ilocos Sur, cases increasing

Also Ilocos Sur has almost as many active cases, 1,177, and a higher percentage of ICU beds occupied than Ilocos Norte.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The ability not overcomplicate procedures is a national pastime. I am not at ball surprised with the delay (abandoned) granular lockdown plan.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Computer problems from Jolina, so late.

Yesterday "technical issues" meant initially that 3,339 positive results held back. Maybe water got into their server?
Five labs were late to submit and they announced 12,751 positives from 57.3k tests. A 28.1% positivity. Coming along 65.2k tests.

Then at 4pm the DOH updated yesterday's results to 17,833
Which was convenient for me as I was not able to post by then!
The late addition adding more backlog than the 3,339 from the day before.
Positivity therefore is not as announced yesterday and the test number for the revised total not given for a revised computation to be done.

Recoveries 20,2k

Deaths 174, 80 RDs

Active 156,226

Severe 2,267, up 46 and Critical 1,058, down 53

NCR ICU 74%, down 1% National 76%, unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 4,621
4A 4,005
CL 1,602
Dav 1,088
NM 1,012
SOCCSK 973
WV 700
Cag 670
CV 595
CAR 589
IL 570

1 400s
1 300s
! 200s
2 100s

All but 6 regions with less cases.
All but one of those in Mindanao:

Notably:
SOCCSK up 588
NM up 428
Davao up 257
Zamboanga up 206

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday, late pm, the DOH announced 22,820 new cases...a record. Five labs were late to submit and the total included a 856 backlog. Positivity up to 29.4% from 74.7k tests. Coming along 71.4k tests.

Recoveries 12.3k

Deaths low at 61, 29 RDs

Active up at 166,672

Severe 2,333, up 66 and Critical 1,167, up 109
That's a total of 3,500 patients in those two conditions.

NCR ICU 73%, down !%. National 75%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 6,615
4A 4,894
CL 2,659
IL 1,081
CV 1,046
Cag 1,011
Dav 988
WV 864
NM 811

600s, 500s, 400s and 300s I region each
200s and 100s 2 regions each

NCR up about 2k with 29% of all cases.
4A and CL each up around 1k.
The 3 regions with 62% of all cases.

Ilocos and CV each up by around 500.
Cagayan by nearly 400.
EV up by nearly 250.
Caraga by nearly 200.
WV by 160 and Bicol by 100.

Four Mindanao regions ..Zamboanga, NM, Davao and SOCCSK, that increased greatly the day before all had less cases yesterday.

Top 6 regions with 75.8% of cases.

Vaccination:

Vaccine targets questioned:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/09/...ng-pagbabakuna

Supply, staffing issues and the effects of bad weather in a Rainy season which still has some time to run never deter them here from setting unrealistic vaccination targets.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

More data delays from the DOH yesterday as over 4k positives were not announced. Also four labs were late to submit. They did announce 17,964 cases. Makes it difficult to see any trends.
They tested 76.6k individuals and positivity was:28.9%. Coming along a lower 64.3k tests, probably weather affected.

Recoveries 9.1k

Deaths 168, 79 RDs.

Active 175,470

Severe 2,201, down 132 and Critical 1,053, down 114

NCR ICU 73%, national 75% unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 4,639
4A 3,614
CL 2,080
Dav 1,046
IL 903
CAR 872
WV 863
Cag 858
CV 807
NM 735

500s 1
400s 1
200s 1
100s 3

NCR down 2.3k cases at 24.3% of all cases. 4A down 1.2k and CL down 600.
Top 3 regions with only 56% of cases.

Three regions added cases:

The CAR with over 200 more.
BARMM 86 and Davao 58 more.

The top 6 regions at 70.6% of all cases.

Sensible policy shift to get rid of the modified quarantine levels:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-or-gcq/story/

In line with that the Cebu governor simplifies quarantines there:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...der-gcq/story/

The granular lockdowns would need many small scale ayudas to be implemented. I can see some disputes between neighbours.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...x?ocid=BingHPC

Re: NCR llockdown
 

My thought on this was birth control. Indonesia doesn't restrict family planning (in fact it's encouraged) and the average number of children/women has dropped. Catholic Philippines compels large families.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes but all these babies get old one day, just in the Philippines not so many survive into old age.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the DOH announced a record daily total of 26,603, 2 labs late .Including a large backlog of 5,713, that's more than were held back the day before. Some older results so maybe that's why positivity is a bit lower at 27.6% from 75.7k tests, A lower 71.4k on the way.

Recoveries 16k

Deaths 79 with 32 RDs

Active 185,706 record.

Severe 2,414, up 213 and Critical 1,114, up 61

NCR ICU 77%, up 4% National 76%, up 1%

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...checked/story/

Doctors in the hospitals don't believe the capacity stats.

Regional data:

NCR 9,061
4A 5,884
CL 3,147
WV 1,755
Bicol 837
Dav 792
IL 758
Cag 652
SOCCSK 636

500s 2
400s,300s 1
200s 2
100s 2

NCR doubles numbers to have 34% of all cases.
4A up by about 2.2k, CL up by more than 1k.
Top 3 regions 68% of all cases.

WV doubled its cases and Bicol added over 600.
Ilocos and Zamboanga each added about 150 cases.
SOCCSK added over 200.
MIMAROPA over 100.

The Philippines has a "red list" of countries who can't fly people to/from here and a recent announcement is that 9 countries are on it for a week at least due to their covid situation. Mostly smaller states in E Europe, but included Switzerland and Israel.

Switzerland?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...90fb840a9c.jpg

Not so bad from the chart!

The IATF say incidence must not be over 500 new cases per 100k. That should mean recent daily cases, Latest figure.2,894. Population 8.7m so that's about 34 per 100k.

Israel's chart:
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...035746ee68.jpg
Daily cases higher than Switzerland's, population somewhat higher but incidence well below 500/100k.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...q?ocid=BingHPC

Hard luck for you doubly vaccinated seniors!

More on the new quarantine system for the NCR:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...a?ocid=BingHPC

Two overall quarantine levels, granular lockdowns and stronger granular lockdowns. Then 4 alert levels applied differently to the various businesses. On top of that we can expect the Mayors to apply other restrictions!

Case fatality rate:

Dr John reported recently on a US study on 2020 covid, taking into account antigen test data as PCR tests were limited then.
They came out with a case fatality rate of 0.3% at the end of 2020.
The current US figure now at about 1.6% on official test data.
About the same here.


Useful delta variant symptom data (for the already vaccinated) from the UK ZOE tracker app. Millions of daily users there.
Never anything given out here about changes in symptoms from the delta variant.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3e8f98c822.jpg

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I'm sure they do not look outside the Philippines in case something challenges their ill conceived ideas.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update:

Regions last week's case increases compared with the week before's.
All 17 regions showing a greater increase last week than in the week before.

Caraga 65%
CAR 49
Bicol 47
Zam 40
SOCCSK 28
IL 27
Dav 25
NCR 17
4A 11

Then 8 regions between 4 and 9% new case increase.
Top 5 areas where hospital facilities are poor.

For the cities, provinces and areas I am comparing 7 days with 6 due to missing data 2 weeks ago, so changes will be somewhat exaggerated.

NCR cities:

San Juan and Pateros showing 79% and 47% increases respectively, but both can be disregarded due to their small populations.

For the rest:

Pasig +32%
Marikina +28%
Caloocan +18%
QC +16%
Taguig +9%
Manila +7%
Valenzuala +2%

Malabon -39%
Navotas -21%
Muntinlupa -12%
Mandaluyong -11%

Low fall %: Pasay, Paranaque, Makati, Las Pinas

Provinces:

All around Manila except Laguna had greater case increase.
Laguna's increase fell by 17%.

Quezon 75%
Rizal 50
Batangas 46
Pang 45
Bata 38
Bul 26
Pam 22
Cav 17

Cities:

Bac +60%
Bag 0
CDO -4
Cebu +55
Dav +36
GenSan +22
IloIlo +16
LapuLapu +26

Aklan -83
IloIlo +21
Bohol +32

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well Gazza, past data indicates that an increasing number will. The knoema.com site says that life expectancy here increased on average by 0,25% pa over the last 50 yrs. Their Indonesian figure is much higher at 0.64%.so maybe they are doing better on basic health. The pandemic will probably lead to less progress and if the public here vote for personalities rather than policies next year life expectancy improvement may even stall.

High and low birth rates each seem not to be good for any country and for any developing one a big problem. Especially one with poor health and education systems like the Philippines. Even if early death claims many of the young now there is a large number who will make it to senior age and looking after them, many of them with weight problems, won't be done so much by families as in the past. Given the past record can we expect future governments here to help much ?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a fall in cases to 21,411, including a 211 backlog and 5 labs late to report. Positivity 27.0% from 78.3k tests. A lower 66.4k in preparation.

Recoveries 25.1k

Deaths 168, 58 RDs

Active 181,951

Severe 2,365, down 49 and Critical 1,092, down 22

NCR ICU 78%, up 1% National ICU 77%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 5,619
4A 4,458
CL 2,250
IL 1,087
CV 982
WV 977
Dav 948
NM 922
Cag 806

2 600s
2 500s
1 300s
1 200s
2 100s

NCR with 3.4k less cases at 26.2% of all cases.
4A and CL fell by a lot less...by about 1.4k and 900.
Top 3 regions with 57.6% of cases, down.

Ilocos added over 300 more, CV over 400 more.
Davao about 150 and NM 450 more.
Cagayan about 150 more.

Top 6 regions had 71.8% of all cases, down

Vaccination progress;

ABS-CBN reports that by Sep 9 16.1M people had been fully vaccinated.