Re: NCR llockdown
 

A much lower 1,735 cases yesterday stemming from low testing on Sunday. Latest Monday testing up to 18.7k.
Active 31,542, down 2,232

Location detail

NCR 528 and a much lower 30% of all cases. From its 6 largest cities 326.....QC 124, Manila 85.

CL down by 45 to 221. 4A down by 259 to 268.
Bulacan 73, Bataan 20, Pampanga 46.
Cavite 98, Laguna 54, Rizal 62, Batangas 40.

These 3 regions down to 59% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up to 85.
Ilocos up to 100.
Cagayan 70
Bicol well down to 6!

Visayas regions down 180 to 198 cases.
Cebu City down to 27.

Mindanao cases down 60 to 259.
Davao City 56.

DOH Weekly Report
Not yet up on their site. Details from GMA.

Cases down 15% (+3%)
Deaths 321 (229)
Aug 109, July 90, June 20
A further 85 earlier in 2022.
Then 17 back to Jan 2021.

Severe and Critical cases:

Admitted 811 (822). New 101 (101)
ICU 27% (28%)
Non ICU 30% (31%)

Severe and Critical patients 9.7% of those admitted. The highest since June 20-26 when it was 10.7%.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/23/...increasing-doh

Conflicting instructions and guidance on whether students have to be vaccinated for face to face classes:

https://mb.com.ph/2022/08/22/pao-urg...-site-classes/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases up to 3,580. Latest testing number for the 23rd up to 21.8k.
Active 30,240, down 1,302. A high 4.8k of recoveries.

Location detail

The NCR total at 1,212, the highest since the start of last week when it was 1,290. A 34% share of all cases. Cases from its 6 largest cities 753 with QC 281, Manila 158, Paranaque 103, Taguig 87.

CL up to 372, 4A to 595.
Bulacan 113, Bataan 39, Pampanga 48.
Cavite 108, Laguna 139, Rizal 130 , Batangas 93 cases.

These 3 regions up a little to 61% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR 118
Ilocos 116
Cagayan 116
Bicol 65

Visayas regions the highest so far this week to 456.
WV to 221, CV to 152.
Cebu City 52, IloIlo City 42.

The same for MIndanao regions, up to 527.
NM more than doubled to 135.
Davao City highest for a week at 106. Zanboanga City up to 29.

The latest DOH cases chart:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...88147cbaab.png

On Worldometers

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b6f76c0637.png
The Philippines

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f034ea4bd0.png
Indonesia

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bec7a94b0c.png
Malaysia

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f69030501d.png
Thailand level.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...00d2fd07ac.png
Vietnam level at a low level.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...45af589229.png
Taiwan the exception with higher cases and a recent upturn.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/healt...k-mandate-most

Singapore eases mask wearing as cases also continue to fall.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 450 fewer cases nationally. Seems likely that storm Florita had some effect on this fall and will also that some areas will have fewer cases announced tomorrow, Testing did fall with the latest number down to 21.2k.
Active 31,037, up 797

Location detail

The NCR with a much lower 887 cases and a share of all cases down to 28%. Its 6 biggest cities with 583 cases...QC 202, Manila 93, Paranaque 91.

Region CL down to 348...Bulacan 105, Batan 26, Pampanga 51.
Region 4A down to 482...Cavite 130, Laguna 135, Rizal 102, Batangas 67.

These 3 regions with a much lower 55% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up to 145
Ilocos stable at 114
Cagayan 127
Bicol up to 84

Visayas numbers down 20 to 436
WV 183, CV 139.
Cebu City 43.

Mindanao down 24 to 503.
Zamboanga up 30 to 90.
Davao City 102, Zamboanga City up to 44.

An optimistic latest Dr John Video.
UK infections as reported to the Zoe App on the way down:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...acecdbc587.png

A similar US picture:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8052d51c58.png

But what about new variants?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9d669c40ba.png
US BA.5 dominance. But notice the growth in the BA.4.6 variant in dark blue. Now estimated at 6.3%. It has an additional spike protein over BA.4. Spike proteins assist virus entrance into host cells.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A lower announcement yesterday at 2,986 cases. Probably a lot to do with lower testing due to storm Florita. The latest test number down again, by 1.5k to 19.7k.
Active 31,615, up 578.

Location detail

The NCR down slightly to 872 cases and it had 29% of the national total. Its 6 largest cities at 537...QC 184, Manila 125, Pasig 73, Taguig 70.

Region CL up only 6 to 354 and likewise 4A, up 1 to 483.
Bulacan 112, Bataan 33, Pampanga 67.
Cavite up 43 to 173, Laguna down to 107, Rizal up to 119, Batangas 58.

These 3 regions with a slightly higher 57% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR up 41 to 186. Baguio City up to 99.
Ilocos up 36 to 150
Cagayan 126
Bicol up to 91.

Visayas cases down by 81 to 355. Cebu City 342
Mindanao cases down by 134 to 369. Davao City 94.

The DOH putting out a "worst case" forecast for cases in the next two months, due to school reopening. assuming minimum protocols will not be followed. Although one can observe some reduction in observance I see the level is still high. People are still nearly all wearing masks in the streets. Though some not in fresh markets. Obviously with more mobility there will be some increased transmission, but 3 times?

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in.

A useful newsletter from SS comparing vaccine adverse reactions reporting here and in the US. While some reactions can be coincidences and suspect due to self reporting, it is thought that adverse reaction reports are generally greatly under reported. However, her analysis suggests that The Philippines is under reporting by a very large amount. Adding to the suspicions, aired in her recent newsletters, that the vaccine roll out here may not have been conducted at all well and that there may possibly be wider problems with the vaccines.Though these must await further analysis in other coiuntries before they can be confirmed.

See newsletter "Philippines FDA Pharmacovigilance Report..." August 25.
Subcribe (free) at:
https://supersally.substack.com/

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...302bdd6cfc.png
So about 106k reports here. Given the poor reporting not much can be seen from the table about the effects of the various vaccines. Except perhaps that Pfizer has a lot of non-serious events?
In the US the VAERS system there has reported 1.4M. Making allowances for the relative populations of the two countries, age distributions and the big difference in health care standards it is still clear that The Philippines is greatly under reporting. SS says that this is even moire concerning as research there says the US system itself under reports serious adverse reactions by about 40 times! But she gives no reference for that.

Some examples where figures for the two countries are available:

Hypersensitivity: Philippines 318 cases, US 9,915.
Hospitalizaion Philippines 6.6k, US 173.5k
Deaths Philippines 2,620, US 30,347

No reports at all here for:

Covid 19, although 4,589 people got covid after vaccination and 247 died. Needs information on timing.
Transient high blood pressure. So what about following heart attacks, strokes?

Serious medial conditions:
Thrombosis, Thromocytopenia (low platelets): None here, US 8,891
Inflammation of heart. Here 19 cases. US 51,566
Bell's Palsy Here 30, US 15,853

Diagnoses here:

91 attempted from about 106k.
19 of these so far have linked condition with vaccination.

The latest Dr John video:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5061418789.png
The latest ZOE, mainly BA.5 symptoms, from the UK. Fever down more to 13%. Making the temperature check machines here even more redundant!The ONS report 39% of UK cases were asymptomatic in June. Using PCR tests, not rapid tests, which have become more unreliable. So the BA.5 wave here is likely greatly under reported.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 400 fewer cases announced yesterday at 2,565. Latest testing on Thursday up slightly to 21.1k.
Active 29,807, down 1,808

Location detail

The NCR slightly down to 865.at a higher 34% of all cases. Cases from its 6 biggest cities up slightly to 541 and 63% of its cases. QC 232, Manila 99, Paranaque 66, Pasig 63, Taguig 55.

CL and 4A each fell moderately to 296 and 386 cases.
Bulacan 97, Bataan 26, Pampanga 75.
Cavite 120, Rizal 104, Laguna 76, Batangas 60.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR down to 70
Ilocos to 79
Cagayan up to 135
Bicol 71

Visayas cases down to 289.
WV 138, CV 107
Cebu City 31, IloIlo City 25.

Mindanao cases up slightly to 374.
NM up 25 to 98.
Davao City 84.

Two articles appeared on my phone's Google Discovery lately looking back at an important time in the pandemic when it seemed to be widely accepted that the emission of water droplets from infected people was just about the only way the virus was spread. It was thought by bodies like the WHO and US CDC that further spread could then take place from contact with some of the surfaces they landed on. Resulting in booming sales of alcohol, disinfecting fluids. Despite researchers finding few instances of surface contact transmission. People in the US wiping the cardboard boxes containing their online grocery deliveries. In a Manila subdivision I lived in spraying of incoming car tyres was performed for a while.
Plastic, Polythene and Perspex barriers were employed. Great emphasis on mask wearing, with cloth types thought to provide a good level of protection. Social distancing rules were introduced and thought to be sufficient. While there wasn't much emphasis in those days on air flows and ventilation in crowded indoor spaces to reduce aerosol spread. The main way it is now thought the virus spreads.
This is one of the articles:

https://qz.com/it-took-two-years-for...orn-1849461885

Weekly report later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update

Last week's % change in brackets.

National cases down 15% (14%)

NCR cases down 11% (17%)
At 32% (31%) of national cases.

Its six largest cities in descending % case fall:

Paranaque -20% (-8%)
Taguig -15 (-34)
Caloocan -14 (0)
Manila -12 (-8)
QC -10 (-13)
Pasig -3 (-23)

Central Luzon -22% (-9%)
Bulacan -14% (-2%), Bataan -18% (-10%), Pampanga -20% (-24%)
Calabarzon -26% (-21%)
Cavite -19% (-22%), Laguna -50% (-24%), Rizal -11% (-22%), Batangas -18% (-10%), Quezon -14% (-23%)


These 3 regions with 60% (61%) of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR -7% (-14%). Baguio City +5%
Ilocos -25% (-12%)
Cagayan -28% (-6%)
Bicol -22% (-15%)

The Visayas regions -13% (-19%)
WV -20% (-16%), CV -10% (-22%)
Cebu City -19% (-28%)

Mindanao regions -4% (+10%)
Davao +5% (+11%)
NM +8% (+5%)
Zamboanga -23% (+32%)
Davao City -4%, Zamboanga City -39%, CDO City -16%

Summary:

- A similar moderate fall nationally this week over last week.
- The rate of case fall in the NCR lessened somewhat.
- Both CL and 4A regions increased their rate of case fall, CL the most with big reductins in Bulucan and Laguna..
- Elsewhere in Luzon it was notable that the CAR's rate of fall lessened while in all other regions outside the NCR plus area
case fall rates increased.
- In the Visayas the rate of case fall lessened only a little, mostly due to a lower fall in the CV region.
- In Mindanao cases are beginning to fall overall, especially in the Zamboanga Pen. region and in Zamboanga City.
But a low rate of case growth seen in the NM and Davao provinces

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday cases fell by about 250 from Saturday's to 2,318. Latest testing for Saturday down 3k to 18.1k.
Active: 28,525, down 1,282

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...55f29412eb.png
The latest DOH weekly positivity chart. Latest 14.1% for the w/e Aug 21.

OCTA say for Aug 25 it was 14.3% nationally. For the NCR 13.6%.
Predicting nationally below 5% in a month's time.

Location detail

The NCR down 83 to 782 but maintaining 34% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 489 of those cases...QC 174, Manila 104, Paranaque 65, Pasig 61, Taguig 58.

CL down by about 50 to 249......Bulacan 103, Pampanga 36.
4A up 10 at 396...Cavite 121, Rizal 102, Laguna 82, Batangas 47.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR 72..Baguio City 7
Ilocos 77
Cagayan down 40 to 95.
Bicol down to 46.

These 3 regions up to 62% of all cases.

Visayan cases down to 260....WV 114, CV 86.
Cebu City 24.

Mindanao cases also down to 341. Only the SOCCSK region up, by 24 to 82.
Davao City 55.

The latest Dr John video may be of some relevance to explaining Philippine excess deaths, some of the data on that having been presented here from SS's recent newsletters.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f29127219a.png
John's Hopkins Our World in Data have produced this map with countries reporting excess deaths 2020-21. Those in darker yellow and red are obviously well in excess of covid. Large parts of the world not reporting, including The Philippines. Of course the data from some countries, eg Russia, can be discounted.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...41d32eee45.png
English excess deaths above the purple dotted line, so far this year, with the yellow shading showing the numbers due to covid. So many not. But much less the case there in 2021. As covid killed many older people a few years prematurely in 2021 we would expect excess deaths to be lower in 2022.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...602f372543.png
All ages in England show a similar pattern. This chart for up to 24 years showing a worryingly large number..

Many experts speaking out in concern but so far only the Scottish government having an enquiry about excess deaths there.

Of course the relevance of this here is limited as Philippine excess deaths have been shown to be well over the deaths attributable to covid for 2021 as well. Though preliminary data for January 2022 here showed deaths to be 17% higher than expected in a time of decreasing covid deaths.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 250 more cases announced at 2,5783. Latest testing down substantially to 13.3k on Sunday.
Active 27,497 down 1,028

Location detail

The NCR cities added over 100 more to 891 and 35% of all cases. From its 6 biggest cities 555. QC 208, Manila 139, Paranaque and Pasig each at 71.

CL down by 65 to 184. Bulacan 85.
4A up by 19 to 414. Cavite up 25 to 146, Laguna up 20 to 102, Rizal up 16 to 118.

These 3 regions down to 58% of all cases.

Visayas regions with a few more cases to 271.
Cebu City 43.

Mindanao up about 30 to 370.
Davao region up 45 to 130.
Davao City up 33 to 88.

Latest OCTA positivity report:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9c1e851c0c.png
Falling positivity in many Luzon regions over the week to August 29, including the NCR. But it's still high and suggests many people are not being tested. Whether it is because of mild symptoms or more difficulty in getting tested o a combination of the two is unclear. The result will be a lower looking but longer lasting wave with more people with comorbidities and lacking booster vaccination needing to be hospitalized..

DOH Weekly report

Cases down 19% (15%)
Deaths 316 (321)
Aug 113 with 94 Aug 15-28 and 193 in the rest of 2022.
A few back to 2021 and 2020.

Severe and Critical:

New 110 (101)
Admitted 807 (811)

ICU 25% (27%)
Non ICU 28% (30%)

Mixed hospital data. More new patients but fewer needing covid beds.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A much lower total at 1,672 new cases announced. Weekend testing was very low and Monday testing rose only to 16.3k.
Active 26,168, down 1,329

The NCR down by well over 300 to 563 and 34% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities at 354...QC 108, Manila 88, Paranaque 59.

But CL actually reported 42 more cases Bulacan 90, Pampanga 44.
While 4A had 158 less with a total well down to 256...Cavite 91, Rizal 76.

These 3 regions at a higher 63% of all cases.

CAR 63
Ilocos 81
Cagayan 60
Bicol reported only 7

Visayas regions down about 100 to 173.
Cebu City 17
Mindanao down 127 to 243.
Davao City 82.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/30/...face-mask-rule

Cebu taking to lead on outdoor face mask wearing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday's announced total down by over 100 to 1,558. Latest testing on the 30th up to 18.4k.
Active 24,181, down 1,947.

Location detail

The NCR with 17 more cases over the day before at 580. Its 6 largest cities with 356 and 61% of cases. QC 153, Manila 67.

CL down somewhat to 164 and 4A to 211.
Bulucan 46, Pampanga 30.
Cavite 64, Laguna 59, Rizal 43

The CAR 43
Cagayan 57
Ilocos 54
Bicol 46

Visayan regions up by 27 to 200.
The WV region up 36 to 114.
Cebu City much lower to 8

Mindanao regions down 40 to 203.
Davao 91, SOCCSK 42.
Davao City 60.

The acting DOH Secretary uses the example of Singapore against Cebu trying to lift outdoor mask wearing mandate. It can do it as it has better access to hospital.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...re/ar-AA11k50R

This article looks at mask wearing in some other E and SE Asian countries:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ound-the-world

All countries except Japan where outdoor mask wearing is either not mandatory or rules lightly enforced are doing well in terms of deaths. Japan has an older demographic and less immunity from previous outbreaks. China has a similar policy to here on masks with its zero covid policy. This thread started in March 2020 with a discussion about us following China with a strict lockdown. Interesting that the Palace using statements from the previous President:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/14/...ing-face-masks

If we go back to this Task Force leader's statement from early this year then we will be still wearing them well into next year!

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2...l-end-pandemic

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a first of the month surprise from Central Luzon:

National cases jumped up by over 2k yesterday to 3,767, but 1,273 or about a third of these came from two areas in Central Luzon. Latest testing at the end of August up to 23.2k.
Active 22,259, down 1,922

Location detail

NCR cases up by 436 to 1,016, the highest since the Wednesday of last week, when it was 1,212. An artificially much lower 27% of all cases. From its 6 largest cities 635... QC 199, Manila 136, Taguig 83, Paranaque 78, Caloocan up 56 to 81, Pasig 58 cases.

Central Luzon at the most was up to just over 400 in the past two weeks and so far this week stayed in the 100s and 200s. So a big surprise to see 1,498 new cases announced yesterday. No investigation by the ABS-CBN or GMA journalists, as usual.
Upon further investigation into its constituent areas using the DOH tracker site:

Olongapo City 763
Zambales 510

Cases which seem to have fallen down the back of the filing cabinet!

DOH charts try to place infections at their tome of infection.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9e238f1ed9.png
Olongapo City cases.
From this chart it seems likely most of these infections went back 6 months.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5d7bdc219b.png
Zambales cases.
Again it looks like many extra infections have been placed 6 months back. Surely the great majority have now recovered?

For CLs other areas:
Bulacan 75, Bataan 40, Pampanga 19.

Region 4A: up 187 to 398.
Cavite 135, Laguna and Batangas each 80, Rizal 73

These 3 regions an artificially high 77% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR 44
Ilocos up to 76
Cagayan up 44 to 101
Bicol up to 71

Visayas regions up 83 to 283 with WV up 17 to 131.
Cebu City 38.

Mindanao cases up 62 to 265.
NM up to 59, Davao 72.
Davao City 44.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d9229a72dc.png
Dr John presents a Portugal study on natural immunity.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday back to a much more normal 2,452 cases. Discounting the 1k plus old cases from Central Luzon yesterday they were down by a few hundred..Latest testing down by about 4k to 19.3k. Probably lower partly due to the weather in N and Central Luzon.
Active 23,703, up 1,444

Location detail

The NCR down to 712 and at 29% of all cases. Its top 6 cities with 430 cases...QC 165, Manila 86, Pasig 64.

CL likely down somewhat to 264 if we allow for the 1k plus old cases announced yesterday.
They definitely were old cases too.....Olongapo City's active cases yesterday 105, Zambales 111.
Bulacan 67, Pampanga 45, Bataan 26.

Region 4A down 50 to 348.
Cavite 112, Rizal 88, Laguna 81, Batangas 44.

These 3 regions at a lower 54% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon:

The CAR up 49 to 93. Baguio City 43
Ilocos 72
Cagayan 80
Bicol 77

Visayas regions up 10 to 293.
WV 126, CV 91.
Cebu City 29

Mindanao regions up 126 to 391.
Davao more than doubled to 151.
SOCCSK nearly doubled to 100.
Caraga 60
BARMM 43
Davao City up to 93. Zanboanga City up to 38.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 360 more cases to make the total 2,812. Latest testing up slightly to 19.9k.
Active cases 23,571, down 132

Location detail

The NCR up 161 to 873 and 31% of national cases. From its top 6 cities 535 cases...QC 159, Manila 102, Taguig 78, Caloocan an unusually high 77, although it also reported 81 two days ago, Paranaquie 61, Pasig 58.

CL was up slightly to 272.
Bulacan 80, Pampanga 34, Bataan 20.

Whereas 4A increased its daily cases by 141 to 489.
Cavite to its highest this week at 194, Rizal 112, Batangas 82, Laguna 77

These 3 regions at 58% of all cases.

The CAR 76 Baguio City 45.
Ilocos up 39 to 111
Cagayan up to 97
Bicol 35

Visayas up slightly to 304.
WV 124, CV up to 102.
Cebu City 39, Bacolod City 37.

Mindanao up 146 to 537.
NM up 60 to 136.
Davao up 35 to 186
Davao City up to 113, highest this week.
CDO City 27, GenSan 15, Iligan City 15, Zamboanga City 31
These 5 large cities with less than 20% of all Mindanao cases.

The recent Dr John video on the covid vaccine and pregnant women getting a convincing video rebuttle from Dr Susan Oliver on You tube:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...50f8c01642.png

But I think he is best when he sticks to the data.
In his latest video he is optimistic about UK covid infections but not about UK excess deaths.

The BBC's Newsnight programme also looked at UK Excess deaths sowing a version of the same ONS chart that Dr vJohn presented:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...610d70100a.jpg
Non covid UK excess deaths the green areas above the yellow line and high in early 2020 and at a lower level mid to end 2021 and mid to late this year.

The Newsnight discussion was about pressures on the NHS and not on vaccination as a possible cause of some of these deaths. The UK vaccination roll out started in December 2020 whereas the largest peak in excess deaths occurred earlier that year. Possibly due to lockdown measures which started in March 2020. Also the chart does not seem to show any coincidence between vaccination and the lower level of excess deaths in 2021 and 2022. This lack of timing coincidence has not been seen in Philippine data,reviewed here recently.

However we do have some analysis on UK data recently presented in an SS newsletter "Questioning Population Vital Statistics" on Sept 3. Subscription is free from:

https://supersally.substack.com/

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b7f0e16a60.png
A Dr Paul Alexander looks at UK vaccine take up and estimates. Out of 63.4M only 44.5M had received at least one dose. So 18.9M not vaccinated at all. Nearly 30% and much higher than official figures. Johns Hopkins says no doses 15% now.

Then he looks at deaths following covid vaccination Dr John has repeatedly complained about this data not being published by the ONS. But Dr Alexander reports he did find this data
An example of the raw data here for the 60-69 age group England. Published July 6 for 2021 and up to May 2022.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f8344e6880.png

Relating all of this raw deaths data to vaccine uptake:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9aa83869ca.png
Sadly in this period deaths were 606,537 from covid. Using Dr Alexander's figures that 44.5M had at least one dose that gives 1 in 73 people who had had a covid vaccination had died by May 2022.

He looks at this through time, by extent of vaccination, and by age group:

For example:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...051f702cf6.png
The unvaccinated deaths never more than 2 dose. for the 18-39s.

A similar pattern for all other age groups eg 70-79s:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c3b2b9303f.png
For the 70-79 age group an even greater difference can be seen n favour of the unvaccinated.

The same author looks at US data:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0fa38deb16.png
US deaths per M through time in the covid pandemic. From Our World in Data.

Compare with US daily % vaccination:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...964886b9e6.png
A death peak following a vaccination peak.
But better to compare vaccinations with the daily % rise in US deaths:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...109dfff6da.png
A 6 month delay after the vaccination peak. Alexander and another analyst Kirsch, also giving data and analyis presented in the SS newsletter, argue that these delayed deaths are many more than the obvious spikes seen in the few days post vaccination.
See also Kirsh's review of European data. Overall he sees a 5, not 6, month delay in deaths post vaccination.

Both authors do not downplay the effects of lockdowns but say they are working constantly throughout the pandemic. They see vaccine effects on deaths in the first 2 weeks or so post vaccination then after a 5-6 month lag from the start of vaccination campaigns, whether initial doses or boosters.

Philippine PSA death data for 2022 is very late in coming out , with only some reliable data for January. If Alexander's and Kirsch's analyses are correct the country will record more excess deaths following the latest booster campaign. In addition to the large number already seen in the pandemic. Figures likely to be well under reported, especially those likely due to vaccination. SS said in one of her recent newsletters that doctors have been under pressure not to report such deaths to LGUs and the DOH..

Weekly report later.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a similar number of cases announced as the day before... at 2,321. Latest testing number down to 16.6k on Saturday..
Active 24,067, up 496

Location detail

The NCR total down 60 to 813 but a higher 35% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 549 cases.....QC 178, Manila 114, Paranaque 62.

CL down to 198... Bulacan 83.
4A to 369. Cavite 138, Laguna 84, Rizal 75, Batangas 65.

These 3 regions at 60% of all cases.

The CAR 58...Baguio City 15
Ilocos 74
Cagayan 74
Bicol 46

Visayas 323...WV 131, CV 106.
Cebu City 37

Mindanao cases down markedly to 352.
NM down to 69, Davao to 87
Davao City 67

Weekly Report
Last week's % change in brackets.

Discounting an estimated 1,150 old cases from the 2 areas in CL gives an estimated recent 16,000 cases for the week and so a fall of 23% (14%).

NCR down 19% (-11%).
5 of its 6 largest cities showed case falls...Manila 13%, QC 25%, Paranaque, Pasig, and Taguig 22-27%. All falling faster last week.
Caloocan had a 21% increase (-14%), but case numbers low at 287.

CL's adjusted estimated total fell by 25% (-22%)
4A's fell by 26% (-26%)
Cavite by 24% (-23%), Laguna 22% (-50%), Rizal 18% (-11%), Batangas 25% (-18%), Quezon 32% (-14%)

Elsewhere in Luzon

The CAR fell by 44% Baguio City down by 44% (+5%)
Ilocos 27%
Cagayan 29%
Bicol 26%

Visayan cases fell by 28% (-13%)
Cebu City by 24%

Mindanao cases fell by 13% (-4%)
Davao City by 6% (-4%)

Case increases generally declining although but we don't have recent positivity data. But tests have been falling lately:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b261879c73.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Lower weekend testing meant a much lower 2,202 case total. The latest test number down to 13.2k individuals.
Active 24,493, up 426

Location detail

NCR down to 720 and a third of all cases. The 6 largest cities with 470 cases...QC 162, Manila 98, Caloocan 65. Taguig 58.

CL up 30 to 228. Bulacan 83
4A up 55 to 424. Rizal 141, Cavite 120, Laguna 75.

These 3 regions with 62% of all cases.

Elsewhere in Luzon

CAR up to 74
Ilocos up 33 to 107
Cagayan up 29 to 103
Bicol 40

Visayan cases down by over 100 to 215
WV 99, CV 80
Cebu City 25

Mindanao cases down by 74 to 278
Davao region up to 107
Davao City 66

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...oh/ar-AA11nyAX

The OIC of the DOH making a confusing statement a few days ago. Says public mask mandate must be kept until cases stabilize. Then she says cases "are stabilizing".
A decision imminent from BBM..but is it? With faceshields there was no decision last year from the President. Only from some Mayors.

Also the same lady making this unbelievable statement. Deaths post vaccination and caused by it have been recorded in other countries:

https://mb.com.ph/2022/09/02/no-link...m_medium=email

DOH weekly report

Cases 17,145 and down 10% (19%)
But the DOH selling itself short as it included about 1,100 old CL cases in its total.
In a bind because they don't want to admit not reporting these cases and cause doubt on their data collection and reporting. Few people follow what they do and they are not in the mainstream media so the DOH have been getting away with things during the Pandemic, both with cases and especially with deaths.

Deaths 354 (316)
September and August 146. The rest back to July 2021.

Severe and Critical:

Admitted 768 (807)
New admissions 40 (101)

ICU 23.5% (25%)
Non ICU 29.3% (28%)

Improvement seen in public hospitals.