NCR llockdown
 

The transport lockdown due to start on the 15th of March suggests to me that the administration are betting that infections from the virus in Manila will soon reach a peak. If they are wrong we are looking at perhaps two or even three months of it. Which surely will be very difficult to maintain public support for?

I'm wondering whether advice on this was taken from China where measures like this are much easier to implement and keep in place?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I am not too sure any real advice has been taken in keeping over 13m people in lock down in a porous a place as you can find anywhere.

our work place is trying to prepare for the worst . most live in NCR

more will die from police killing suspected drug victims.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

And poor health care in the Philippines

Regards

Re: NCR llockdown
 

You'd better hope you're right. If things do take a turn for the worst, I think it will be more than the police will kill somehow.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better, and over a long period of time.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Big coincidence that this came soon after some discussions the President here had with President Xi.
What seems not to have been understood here is that China sat on their virus outbreak for many weeks before they had to have a provincial lockdown.
Province of China?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Read this morning on Rappler that metro Manila is on curfew 8pm to 5am until 4 April.

If this virus can cause this sort of panic.. Its good that governments have kept quiet about aliens

Regards

Re: NCR llockdown
 

And the Philippines hasn't sat on their outbreak for several weeks. They have only come clean once some tourists started taking it home.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

As with any other country, Asian, European, North American or other, the COVID-19 cat is already out of the bag now. It's a pandemic in world-wide "community spread", at least 10 times as lethal as seasonal flu.

But even in as "porous a place as you can find anywhere", like the Philippines, measures to slow its spread, however late or porous, do still help, by slowing--even slightly--the rate of critical cases being presented to the hospital system.

Unfortunately, I think you'll be wrong, by roughly two orders of magnitude. The only two factors preventing it from being worse for the Philippines are its tropical weather, and the relatively young median age of its residents.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I wouldn't be so sure that tropical weather will make a difference. Warm weather definitely doesn't. Looking at the increases in Malaysia, Indonesia etc.

The official number of cases in Thailand is 75, and yet there are over 1000 people in hospital for pneumonia like symptoms under observation. Go figure....

Re: NCR llockdown
 

General lack of test kits hides the true figure in any part of the world. Maybe the Italian experience shows the real extent and spread of the infection. UK too slow to stop large crowd pulling events, US with it's head in the sand. Many countries adjacent to PRC probably not releasing true figures. The world is in a dark place and one has to consider that the draconian measures taken by the PRC is the only way to move forward.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Higher ambient temperatures do impede respired viruses generally--one of the reasons the "seasonal flu" is seasonal, outside the tropics. But I'll grant you, this is yet to be demonstrated for COVID-19.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Although, the measures taken by the PRC haven't stopped the virus, merely the transmission of the virus. They're not the same things.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

No stockpiling of toilet paper in the Philippines...

Re: NCR llockdown
 

In the Chinese province where the virus originated the outbreak has been going some time and maybe some immunity has now been developed there to reduce transmission. Certainly their travel restrictions prevented a China wide spread.

But the Philippine cases are imported, so it's a different situation, Especially given the number and international spread of OFWs and the large number of visitors from China and S Korea.

Draconian measures have to be applied only after careful consideration as they may have unintended consequences. So here in Manila large numbers of schoolkids are stuck at home and we know that the elderly are the most vulnerable to this viral infection. As they are mostly cared for at home that measure may increase transmission as although young people are not so vulnerable they can be carriers. Also many workers from outside Manila will be crammed tightly together in the city with the provincial buses off. And now there's a curfew 8pm to 5am leading to more people stuck at home. Social distancing is a bit difficult in the average Filipino household!

The public will buy the argument that strong measures are needed..for now. Rappler is saying that any OFW arriving here after tomorrow will have to wait a month before they can leave! But is it likely that the situation will be better in a month's time? I don't think so as more cases are now appearing daily. Then this authoritarian government will feel it has to keep these measures in place long term to avoid losing face. In doing so fueling public discontent and throttling the economy.

Better to spend the large police overtime pay which will be paid on policing these restrictions on assisting testing, contact tracing and on the health services generally.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I liked the government press release on the self quarantine/lock-down curfew. They said that curfew was from 20:00 to 05:00hrs and only essential services ( medical, police, fire brigade etc ) would be allowed to break it. They also confirmed that supermarkets, banks & grocery's would also be open. But with everyone else locked up for the night who is going to use the supermarket, banks or grocery's.

Thinking before action comes to mind.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I busted curfew last night left home at 1:pm to get to work not stopped or flagged down, Will not try that tonight as the car is plated and that would be asking for big trouble

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Not looking good.


​​​https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14...o-pandemonium/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A good assessment of the situation here. Already poor health services will struggle. Also, relying on the low median age of the population to mitigate the outbreak severity may not work. Looking at Wikipedia one can see that just under a third of the confirmed cases so far are age 40 or under.. Young people here can be very unhealthy.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Luzon lockdown.


https://amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject....rantine-entire

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Actually I'd say that the number of cases below 40 seems low. A "case" means one is infected but without being indicative of the seriousness of illness. But usually people only get tested if they are symptomatic, so that means that a large number of infected people are out there but not getting tested. Since older people tend to show more severe symptoms they will skew the testing upward and make up a significant disproportion of that statistic. That said the idea of letting the virus run it's course so that some sort of group or herd immunity will exist is simply crazy. Usually you start seeing some effect when about 60% of the population have been infected - the rates start declining because of THAT...but think of how many people that actually is and at a 3% mortality rate that generates. You start moving to reasonable levels of control at 90%.

Philippines 105 million x 60% = 63 million....at .03 mortality that's 1.9 million people dead. Not a big fan of herd immunity unless it's by immunization with a less lethal form of the virus.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

From what I have read and listened to the idea of "herd immunity" mainly came up as a possible helpful factor in the later months of a country's outbreak. Not as a policy itself. It would be a plus factor favouring a policy of virus delay rater than containment. Britain stands out in Europe in its pursuit of a delay policy, for now, at least.. And in relation to the Philippines. The difference between these policies has been described as being like the difference between how to sensibly run a Marathon and a 100m race. The outbreak does look increasingly that it is in its very early stages. The delay policy is also said to take into account some theories of bahavioural science on how people will react over the long term to restrictions.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well every government will frame their policy on a) what is possible with your resources to impose, b) the amount of hospital assets one has, c) understanding of the process of epidemics/science by the politicians, and d) impacts on the economies/business pressures.

Except for "early" one never knows what stage of an epidemic spread one is in. So to speak of a "herd immunity" being a helpful factor in the later month's of a country's outbreak" ignores the fact that no country knows when they are at that stage...except from the fact that there has been enormous levels of death and illness. If a nation is trying to contain the viral spread... one doesn't know whether one is in a Marathon, 10km, 5km, 1500m, 400m or 50m. If you are successful in containment then early = late. If one isn't, it could spread and there could be any number of possible plateaus and breakouts. The more your policy allows spread and the more people that are exposed the more likely another breakout. That will occur until almost everyone has been exposed (herd immunity). That is likely what happened with the Spanish Flu and the Measles Pandemics between 1918-1924.

Of course the only final "late stage" (which no country actually wants) is 100% saturation/exposure. That's the Marathon. And that will likely result in vast numbers of deaths.

It's also important to realize that strategies of social distancing and quarantine are not the same as "obtaining herd immunity". Those are techniques to flatten the curve...to slow the spread so that whatever health care resources don't get swamped. That may reduce mortality...with the irony that those that survive are unlikely to get ill from the same strain again (we hope...the virus is novel and its behavior is still not fully known). It's also still unclear how long after recovery the individual may be capable of transmitting the virus again. Or if they are resistant to mutant strains and if so, can they harbor and pass on that new "novel" version.

I think the UK has largely retreated from its "delay" policy now the PM is aware that it is not a viable one in terms of deaths, hospitalizations, and spread.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

According to the BBC the disease modelers are working overtime in the UK, mainly looking at the frightening situation in Italy. The government's chief scientific adviser has said the country is "3 weeks behind Italy"!

True, there is movement towards a British type of suppression policy ...but one with schools still on and no community lockdowns.. In stark contrast to many other countries in Europe and elsewhere. Fears of what might happen when even these mild controls are lifted are apparently freely admitted and discussed in British scientific circles. The worry is that herd immunity could then be less with still no vaccine ready.

Although China can boast of now only having imported cases they may still face that same exit situation with most people in Wuhan still susceptible to the virus.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

And what happens to the rest of China when controls are lifted fully ? Be interesting to see.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

China must be pretty confident that they have cracked it, they are now sending aid to the US

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The absurdity of herd immunity when you don't have a readily available vaccine

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...virus-covid-19

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ohnson/608065/

Originally Bo Jo stated the plan was the government would no longer try to track and trace the contacts of every suspected case, and it would test only people who are admitted to hospitals.
In lieu of any major social-distancing measures, Johnson instead offered a suite of soft advice—people with symptoms should stay home; no school trips abroad; people over 70 should avoid cruises. Some people call this a "mitigation strategy" and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has modeled that will mean 250,000 fatalities.

It's clear that Johnson has realized that this was NOT a political or scientifically sound policy. One needs a combination of strong social distancing measures..,.,closure of all events and meetings, pubs, restaurants, clubs, concerts, nursery schools, church and mosque services, malls and other central places.

The changes and retreats by Johnson's advisors and spokespeople smells of revisionism and retreat from Boris' claim that they were applying a "different strategy" than the EU (to paraphrase "Britain has regained its sovereignty") and raising the term "herd community" as a strategy. Bad messaging? Perhaps...or simply not understanding the science.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Seems like trump was trying to buy a vaccine just for the use in America and no where else. Nice

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-vaccine-deal
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/donal...arch-12403129/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Or false bravado to regain international standing and gain virus brownie points after lying to the world, threatening doctors and journalists etc when the outbreak first started. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

NO MASS GATHERINGS!

https://www.theborneopost.com/2020/0...s-off-capital/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Unfortunately with no school, work..or if they have work and live outside the city no proper accommodation, large numbers are now massed in the slums of Manila.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

According to her-in-doors facebook posts now has it that a Chinese couple of developed this virus in their kitchen and then released it into the public.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Have sighted a few people having difficulty walking a fair distance with two bags of groceries. Trikes are off in the transport ban and the Palace yesterday confirmed the reason was because social distancing cannot be maintained. You would think that they could allow it for one passenger at the very least.

Then, there's a rule that only one person from each household to be getting the shopping. Supposedly to be enforced by the Barangay! If followed people will be making more shopping trips.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I bet they wished they had bought London taxis

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://www.ibon.org/just-follow-won...BON Foundation

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Police have just been round to advise that as of this evening there is a curfew from 20:00 to 05:00hrs. Won't bother most in the village as they are normally in bed by that time.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Fillet of a fenny snake, in the caldron boil and bake. Eye of newt, and toe of frog, wool of bat, and tongue of dog. Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting. Lizard's leg, and howlet's wing.

Double, double, toil and trouble. Fire, burn, and caldron, bubble.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

You've been watching my mother-in-law cooking.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Curfews are unnecessary as everything is closed and there are so many uniformed people around on the deserted streets to persuade any people who are out without good reason to go home. But a few years ago a national "strongman" type leader was elected so especially at times like this no relying on persuasion to be any part of the restrictions.

Those in local government have to follow the tough inflexible line coming from the top. From people who have little idea how most people live here. Very few are speaking out. Vico Sotto with his sensible trike proposal had to bow down in the end to the argument from the Palace that if his idea was allowed then there would not be a uniform rule!

On Rappler today there's a report of a homeless Lola arrested for just shouting at Tanods during the curfew in Malate. MM.

Very early days now...but unless there is more help and flexibility in dealing with the poor I think there will be serious unrest in many areas before long.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A few days ago the US state department advised all US citizens to leave metro Manila and cebu due to possible civil unrest..

Re: NCR llockdown
 

After natural disasters in the Philippines, is there normally much looting?

Could be some tough times ahead for sure. Widespread economic collapse, profiteering, highly leveraged businesses going under, mass unemployment...... All kinds of possibilities.

What is the capability of the government to intervene and help. I'm guessing not in the same way as European governments are right now.